Scottish Independence, yay or nay?

[Champ]

I thought it was already like that...

I don't get this currency thing at all

It's what you're paid in, what you spend, what your mortgage is in and pension...pretty big stuff

I'd be terrified,,, any fuckups and you've just lost 30% of your pension, your house has lost value etc

 

I'm hearing that house offers are being made subject to a No vote

[mattyq]

I'm hearing that house offers are being made subject to a No vote

Wow, shit's getting real

On a related note

 

Billions of pounds wiped from value of Scottish firms after yes vote leads independence poll

Lloyds Banking Group worst hit falling £1.7bn in value as stock and currency markets get jitters over shock YouGov poll

• Share1670
•  
• inShare22
• Email

• Severin Carrell, Graeme Wearden and Patrick Wintour
•  
• theguardian.com,  Monday 8 September 2014 16.51 BST
• Jump to comments (1395)

As yes camp pulled slightly ahead of no, major Scottish companies lost billions of pounds in value. Photograph: Murdo MacLeod

The value of major Scottish companies has fallen by billions of pounds after the stock market was spooked by polling giving the yes vote a lead ahead of the referendum.

As Scottish minsters played down the significance of the YouGov poll that found yes had a narrow lead in the independence campaign, Edinburgh-registered Lloyds Banking Group – which owns Bank of Scotland – was the worst hit, with shares falling by £1.7bn, or 3.3% by lunchtime.

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's deputy first minister, said that while YouGov had given yes its first lead of 2%, another poll by Panelbase had shown independence support 4% behind – suggesting the race was still wide open. A third poll, by TNS, is due tomorrow.

"I don't think there's any doubt at all the momentum is with the yes campaign but there is no sense of our campaign taking anything for granted," Sturgeon said, hinting at fears the YouGov poll has raised yes camp expectations too high.

John Swinney, the Scottish finance secretary, offered a yet more cautious view, telling BBC Radio 4's Today programme that the independence vote was still behind in the overall polling.

"Obviously the momentum and movement in the campaign has been in our favour but I think it's a pretty fair assessment of the polls to show that the yes campaign still remains behind in general, we certainly are in the poll of polls."

Nicola Sturgeon, here with worshippers outside Glasgow central mosque, has played down poll lead. Photograph: Murdo MacLeod

Traders, meanwhile, reacted by sharply downgrading shares in major Scottish companies. Shares in RBS, also Edinburgh-based, fell by 2.8% – or £1.1bn – while the energy giant SSE's shares lost 2.7%, or £400m.

Currency market jitters over the impact of a yes vote on 18 September also intensified in the wake of the YouGov poll, with the value of the pound falling almost two cents against the US dollar to $1.614, a 10-month low. It has lost 6% since mid-July.

Shocked by the scale of the shift to yes, UK party leaders are now urgently trying to agree a joint statement later this week on devolution for Scotland to reassure worried no voters.

While Better Together campaigners insisted the YouGov poll was out of step with their polling, one UK minister involved in the campaign admitted: "I'm nervous rather than panicked. I think this just makes it real for everyone."

Sturgeon said the UK government could be blamed for the fluctuations insterling because it had refused to have "sensible discussions" about a formal deal to share the pound if there was a yes vote. That would reassure the markets, she said.

"It's not unusual in political campaigns, or indeed on budget days, for the value of the pound to fluctuate. I think that would suggest that the financial markets see Scotland as a strong economy," she told BBC Radio Scotland.

Lloyds Banking Group was worst hit by stock market fears over Scottish independence. Photograph: Anthony Devlin/PA

The fright began on Asian markets on Sunday when Standard Life shares fell by 4%, or £400m, while shares in the engineering firms Babcock International – which runs civilian operations at Faslane submarine base and Rosyth naval dockyard – dropped 4.2%, or £233m, and Glasgow-based Weir Group fell by 1.8%, or £100m.

As traders braced themselves for further shifts towards yes in polls due within days, the Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said Scottish voters needed to "be very afraid" about the risks of independence.

Writing for the New York Times, Krugman said he found it "mindboggling" thatScottish voters were prepared to go independent without a deal to share the pound or have a central bank.

Warning Scotland's economy could crash, he wrote: "The combination of political independence with a shared currency is a recipe for disaster.

"Everything that has happened in Europe since 2009 or so has demonstrated that sharing a currency without sharing a government is very dangerous. In economics jargon, fiscal and banking integration are essential elements of an optimum currency area."

Alistair Cotton, corporate trader at Currencies Direct, believes the pound could fall by at least 5% if voters chose independence.

"The prospect of protected negotiations will create a period of volatility in exchange rates, bonds and equities which will continue until concrete decisions over debt and currency are made," Cotton warned.

The Better Together leader Alistair Darling meets badge-wearing voter whilst campaigning in Edinburgh for a no vote in the Scottish referendum. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA

Oliver Harvey, foreign exchange strategist at Deutsche Bank, said the British public establishment is reacting with "rising panic" to Sunday's YouGov poll. He believes a yes vote on 18 September could derail the UK's economic recovery.

"The implications of a yes vote would be huge, and are magnified by the sense of institutional unpreparedness. This week the most senior official at the Treasury admitted that only now is a team being prepared to deal with the fallout."

Leaders from Labour, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are thrashing out the details for a joint statement in Scotland later this week where they are due to pledge to set up a cross-party commission and a new timetable for agreeing extra tax and legal powers for the Scottish parliament.

The rush to make a new offer on devolution, promised within hours of the shock poll result on Sunday, triggered accusations of panic and bogus bribes from Alex Salmond, the first minister.

He accused George Osborne of "a panicky last-minute measure because the yes campaign is winning on the ground". He added: "The evidence for that is overwhelming."

Osborne said the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems would agree to discuss proposals involving "much greater" fiscal autonomy for Scotland. The details could be announced as soon as Tuesday; no campaigners insist this move has been planned for several weeks.

Offering Scotland more power over tax rates, spending and welfare, the proposals would be ready for implementation in the first Westminster parliamentary session after the 2015 general election, the chancellor added.

Alistair Darling, the leader of the Better Together campaign, said he always expected the polls to narrow close to the referendum, saying: "We are in the position now when every voter could potentially tip the balance."

He acknowledged that the no campaign needed to appeal to the heart as well as the head but argued the big question is what impact separation would have on family finances and whether Scottish people would be able to afford the NHS and pensions.

[Section_31]

It's funny how fundamentally the no campaign misunderstand the Scots. They're arguably the most awkward and stubborn nation you'll ever encounter (half my family hail from there), so the more you try and shit them up with scare stories about the economy etc, the more they'll get the urge to give a big 'fuck you'. They'd have been better saying fuck all.

 

Got into a drunken chat with a couple of Scottish women a couple of years back after the Christmas do where I started saying they should go independent (I wasn't arsed either way, but thought it'd put me in their good books) but they became quite animated and started going on about why it was a terrible idea. I was convinced though, was absolutely certain balls to bones, that if I'd said they shouldn't be independent they'd have acted the exact same way. They're a contrary people - I can relate.

[Mook]

It's funny how fundamentally the no campaign misunderstand the Scots. They're arguably the most awkward and stubborn nation you'll ever encounter (half my family hail from there), so the more you try and shit them up with scare stories about the economy etc, the more they'll get the urge to give a big 'fuck you'. They'd have been better saying fuck all.

 

Got into a drunken chat with a couple of Scottish women a couple of years back after the Christmas do where I started saying they should go independent (I wasn't arsed either way, but thought it'd put me in their good books) but they became quite animated and started going on about why it was a terrible idea. I was convinced though, was absolutely certain balls to bones, that if I'd said they shouldn't be independent they'd have acted the exact same way. They're a contrary people - I can relate.

We are fucking not contrary.

[Vincent Vega]

We are fucking not contrary.

 

Contrary and dour.

[Anny Road]

As Kevin Bridges said. Fuck it it will be a good laugh.

[Bobby Hundreds]

You know what else would be a good laugh. Putting the royal family, the aristocracy, the lords, the career politicians, the bankers, doing things you don't want to do all onto a giant rocket ship and firing it into a mountain.

[Creator Supreme]

Bobby knows

[Nunavut Patrick]

This is Quebec 95 all over again.

 

I said before all the stories will be about impending economic doom, passports, the pound, etc.

 

Fuck Lloyds, fuck real estate your house will still be there Sept. 19th, and unless you let a bunch of Scottish oligarchs snap up all the companies and pillage them your pensions will still be there.

 

It is better to die on your feet than live on your knees.

 

In ten years Scotland will be better off than a decaying Empire who embraced American economic ideals without the resources or population to carry out.

[Nunavut Patrick]

You know what else would be a good laugh. Putting the royal family, the aristocracy, the lords, the career politicians, the bankers, doing things you don't want to do all onto a giant rocket ship and firing it into a mountain.

Yes, do not fear these muppets and their propaganda of impending doom.

 

There is nothing worse in the aristocracy and upper level business and corporations than uncertainty.

 

is the scone back yet?

 

Storm Balmoral.

[Creator Supreme]

Fuck it, after reading NP's post, time for a declaration of independence for the Peoples Republic of Liverpool!!

 

Freedom for Fazakerley, who's with me?

[Nunavut Patrick]

Fuck it, after reading NP's post, time for a declaration of independence for the Peoples Republic of Liverpool!!

 

Freedom for Fazakerley, who's with me?

I can't say it properly so I'm out but Republic of Old Swan sounds good to me.

 

Even though I was attacked by a swan as a six year old.

[Guest Pistonbroke]

Heard a rumour that if Scotland vote yes Dave is gonna ban them all from using the forums. 

[Creator Supreme]

He's one sick bastard that Cameron, we welcome our Scottish fans, we're not Everton for fucks sake!!

 

 

 

;)

[Nunavut Patrick]

Scots Asians?? Good Lord they are Indians. Scotland will have an ace cricket team soon.

 

RBS and Lloyds lost €1B off their value? On paper. Another scare tactic. The bank is going to collapse....uhm...didn't this almost happen in the post 2008 world? Because, you know, there was little regulation and the greedy bastards were allowed to run riot selling toxic stocks and debt. Might be better off without the City and Westminster running things.

 

The doom and gloom of the pound? Oh no it will fall a whole 5%....which will make your exports more attractive...ahh, but Thatcher privatized, gutted and sold off everything, decimated the northern manufacturing base so England doesn't make shit anymore...shame really. Scotland could start making shit again. Scotland could build a better society. I'm not saying open the ship yards and compete with the Chinese and Koreans, but other niche manufacturing. Get the diaspora back, get them to invest in Scotland. No other diaspora is more loved than the Scots. The sweattie fuckers mapped out most of my country. I'd come back to my traditional clan lands, McCullough as long as its not near Glasgow. ( We were shipped to homestead in manitoba because of a sheep thieving incident allegedly),

 

Any argument that is based on fear is a losing argument and a political tactic. It's Mother England telling you you'll be sorry little bastards if you go...tsk tsk..

[Spy Bee]

Heard a rumour that if Scotland vote yes Dave is gonna ban them all from using the forums. 

You reckon you could possibly give your signature independence from your posts mate?

[Dougie Do'ins]

Been reading that The Royal Family are starting to get a bit nervous over this. Too right.

Probably worried that they'll have to start paying for their jollies up north.

[Guest Pistonbroke]

You reckon you could possibly give your signature independence from your posts mate?

I think I understand what you are saying, albeit your sentence doesn't make much sense. 

[Spy Bee]

I think I understand what you are saying, albeit your sentence doesn't make much sense. 

It makes perfet sense. I was (as you probably guessed) suggesting that your signature is a bit OTT.

[Guest Pistonbroke]

It makes perfet sense. I was (as you probably guessed) suggesting that your signature is a bit OTT.

Maybe I will change it, just for you mate. 

[Mendoza]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/08/scottish-independence-david-cameron-no-campaign-windows-8

[Guest Pistonbroke]

That better spy bee? 

[Spy Bee]

That better spy bee? 

I'm a fan, but I suppose it's all subjective!

[Guest Pistonbroke]

I'm a fan, but I suppose it's all subjective!

I thought my play on words from "sing me to sleep" to the present one was quite clever, I will be changing it though. 

[Guest Pistonbroke]

You know what else would be a good laugh. Putting the royal family, the aristocracy, the lords, the career politicians, the bankers, doing things you don't want to do all onto a giant rocket ship and firing it into a mountain.

Totally agree, see that slapper Kate is up the duff again....Deja vu me thinks. Pick a pretty bird to marry a Royal, get her to breed like a rat as quick as possible, then boom, she'll be in a French tunnel before she knows it.