General Election 2019

[Gnasher]

6 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

You do realise everyone thinks you are fucking mental? So, nice try to integrate but I’m afraid it’s bound to fail. 

Yep I do realise everyone thinks I'm mental Rico. You are right  

 

I'm not trying to 'integrate" so i don't care if i "fail'

 

I'm just voicing an opinion on Dave's message board   I mean no offence and I offer no offence rico . 

[Rico1304]

17 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Yep I do realise everyone thinks I'm mental Rico. You are right  

 

I'm not trying to 'integrate" so i don't care if i "fail'

 

I'm just voicing an opinion on Dave's message board   I mean no offence and I offer no offence rico . 

Stopped reading to be fair. 

[Gnasher]

Just now, Rico1304 said:

Stopped reading to be fair. 

Er rightie oh.

[Gnasher]

It's a little bit like this Rico. It could all be so easy, everyone could prosper, we could all flourish, we could all reach our potential. We could all have a fair shot. 

 

 

 

But the counts in this world won't let us. They have no mantra with peace. They hate democracy. They spew on fair play. They love greed. They love the hardship others endure. 

 

It's about being human Rico. It's not just about personal gain. It's about empathy, love and understanding. It's what makes us the better person. It's what makes us a better society. It's what makes our kids grow up with a fair shout rico.  It's living in a society where no one gets left behind rico. A country of good education; good housing and a good health service. A country that is skilled and ready to face the future. We invest in our youth and look after our old. 

 

II haven't got much of a brain rico but it really is a no brainer. It's time for change.

 

[Rico1304]

Stopped again. Soz. 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

3 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

Stopped again. Soz. 

Cba reading 3 words of that.

[Creator Supreme]

Fucking hell Gnasher posts his best stuff in ages and Rico can't be arsed reading it, sad!

[Leyton388]

14 hours ago, Gnasher said:

I have heard the labour manifesto and I will be voting for it. To me it's a no brainer. Even if I earned over the 80 grand they say that people pay more I would still vote for it. It's not about me. It's about the common good.

 

Money spent on health/housing/energy/transport is imo a must that this country has been crying out for the last 20/30 years  

 

I'm all in.

Spot on 

[aRdja]

 

[polymerpunkah]

In Brexit-related news, the US is about to destabilize the WTO.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/canada-urges-u-s-to-save-wto-from-chaos-1.5369843

 

Probably temporarily, but my guess is any fix is going to be to their advantage, and not to anyone else's (other than perhaps coincidentally).

 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

[TheDrowningMan]

Tory lead up to 19% in the latest Opinium poll. Landslide incoming. With the public as they are, I doubt we'll see the back of these fuckers for at least another decade, when a polished, centrist New Labour redux swan in and make some marginal improvements that get swept away by the next Tory government.

[Barrington Womble]

7 minutes ago, TheDrowningMan said:

Tory lead up to 19% in the latest Opinium poll. Landslide incoming. With the public as they are, I doubt we'll see the back of these fuckers for at least another decade, when a polished, centrist New Labour redux swan in and make some marginal improvements that get swept away by the next Tory government.

It's fucking depressing isn't it. 

[Vincent Vega]

I’m clinging to the hope that the polls are bollocks. The vast majority of polls are conducted with people who are registered with the polling companies, and people who answer their landline phones (i.e. not anyone under 50, and not anyone who is x-directory).

 

It appears without doubt though that the best we can hope for is a hung parliament. Brexit has made many people act irrationally.

[Red Phoenix]

Yeah that poll is absolute bullshit I think, unless anyone can show us how they actually carried out the poll and the age groups are balanced. Can remember when following the US election you'd often see what age groups were included and so on, have even seen that for some of the early 2020 stuff but I never see it with ours. Maybe because I don't follow it as much or look at the details enough.

 

What you sometimes see with US ones though is that they'll just completely leave out younger age groups, so maybe there's a chance some of them are doing the same over here. Or maybe they're doing several things that are making the result a complete mess.

[ZonkoVille77]

Saw a great analogy earlier. 

 

The propaganda leaflets that were dropped to soldiers to demoralise them during WW2, that's modern polling. 

[Aventus]

1 hour ago, TheDrowningMan said:

Tory lead up to 19% in the latest Opinium poll. Landslide incoming. With the public as they are, I doubt we'll see the back of these fuckers for at least another decade, when a polished, centrist New Labour redux swan in and make some marginal improvements that get swept away by the next Tory government.

Your doom-mongering of last season ended with number 6.

 

Hopefully you can have the same effect now you've moved into politics. 

[Mudface]

It's not looking good. Unless the equivalent of the 2017 surge starts this week, I think we're fucked.

[Red Phoenix]

20 minutes ago, Mudface said:

It's not looking good. Unless the equivalent of the 2017 surge starts this week, I think we're fucked.

 

That tweet says their model is like the ones that predicted the last election but the data is from YouGov so it might still be out by a mile. YouGov was founded by two Tories I think. Maybe if they had more balanced data I'd worry, but still not bothered.

 

Not saying I think Labour are going to win, I've no idea but I'm not buying into these current predictions/polls.

[Mudface]

4 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

That tweet says their model is like the ones that predicted the last election but the data is from YouGov so it might still be out by a mile. YouGov was founded by two Tories I think. Maybe if they had more balanced data I'd worry, but still not bothered.

 

Not saying I think Labour are going to win, I've no idea but I'm not buying into these current predictions/polls.

Dunno- I don't think YouGov are biased, they'd have been found out before now if they were. The poll leads the Tories are getting are just too big to be explained away by poor methodology. I really wouldn't pin your hopes on there being some miraculously large unpolled Labour support, this is starting to feel like an '80s election now with Labour just unable to get any traction.

 

Having said that, I'd be delighted to come back to this post in a few weeks and call myself a daft cunt. Hope springs eternal...

[Mudface]

Forgot to say- this isn't YouGov, at least not completely-

 

 

[Brownie]

These polls might be right but look below for the final polls ahead of the 2017 election. It ended up being +2 to the Tories.

 

The polls also got Trump and Brexit wrong.

 

Now they may be right this time but basically the polls have a lot to prove.

 

[Mudface]

4 minutes ago, Brownie said:

These polls might be right but look below for the final polls ahead of the 2017 election. It ended up being +2 to the Tories.

 

The polls also got Trump and Brexit wrong.

 

Now they may be right this time but basically the polls have a lot to prove.

 

Aye, but the horrible thought occurs that most were wrong then through them over-correcting after underestimating the Tory vote in 2015. You'd have thought that after 2017, they'd have revised their methodology to try and capture the Labour vote they missed then. If they have, and we're still seeing these big Tory leads, things could be really, really shit.

[Brownie]

5 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Aye, but the horrible thought occurs that most were wrong then through them over-correcting after underestimating the Tory vote in 2015. You'd have thought that after 2017, they'd have revised their methodology to try and capture the Labour vote they missed then. If they have, and we're still seeing these big Tory leads, things could be really, really shit.

That’s a worry I share mate but having said that, a recent poll released some weighting information behind it and that showed that they expect the turnout to drop amongst younger voters and to increase amongst older voters.

 

If turnout was in line with 2017, that particular poll halfed the Tory lead.

[Red Phoenix]

30 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Dunno- I don't think YouGov are biased, they'd have been found out before now if they were. The poll leads the Tories are getting are just too big to be explained away by poor methodology. I really wouldn't pin your hopes on there being some miraculously large unpolled Labour support, this is starting to feel like an '80s election now with Labour just unable to get any traction.

 

Having said that, I'd be delighted to come back to this post in a few weeks and call myself a daft cunt. Hope springs eternal...

 

The main reason I don't trust them is because of the Tories that started it, and looking at their funding a while back that had some massive US hedge fund and other corps included. Maybe they're not that far out but I still think there's too much that'll change when people actually vote so it's not going to be as it is now.

 

And like Brownie said with Trump, I think a lot of those polls were hugely wrong and predictions before the vote had him losing with something like 90% certainty or more in some cases. The main thing I'm hoping for is that gap being reduced. It sucks seeing it getting worse at the moment but maybe that'll start changing over the next couple of weeks.

 

If not then yeah, maybe we're in trouble and the polls have it partly right.