Coronavirus

[TheHowieLama]

3 minutes ago, Barry Wom said:

Is it really? And I've chosen today to have an IPA variety day. Just finishing my 11th different one. Unfortunately variety is now over and I need to start repeating flavours or head to some Guinness export numbers I have there. Nice to know I'm being patriotic while doing this. 

Every little bit pal, every little bit.

[Bobby Hundreds]

48 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

WWE should have the casting vote.

Twice I've heard WWE today. I watched joe rogan with Eric Weinstein, he talked about the genius of WWE in selling fake sport as real sport but openly making it clear it's fake.  People know they're being hoodwinked but don't care he says Trump and his supporters use the exact same principles, many things in life do. "Kayfabe" id never heard the word in my life but we will ignore the truth for the comfortable illusion.

[Jairzinho]

25 minutes ago, TK421 said:

Here you go, this will cheer you up.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

Fucking hell.

 

If that comes to fruition then, as people feared, the government's inaction will cost tens of thousands of lives. 

[Captain Turdseye]

What a time to be alive. 
 

 

[Aventus]

[3 Stacks]

2 hours ago, skend04 said:

Does this mean we have to close the Facemasks thread? 3 Stacks was starting to go off on one and it was getting quite amusing.

Going off? I was spitting the truth, bud. 

[TheHowieLama]

9 minutes ago, 3 Stacks said:

Going off? I was spitting the truth, bud. 

Blud.

[Pureblood]

14 minutes ago, Jairzinho said:

Fucking hell.

 

If that comes to fruition then, as people feared, the government's inaction will cost tens of thousands of lives. 

Yes, grim if anywhere near accurate.  

[Pidge]

45 minutes ago, TK421 said:

Here you go, this will cheer you up.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

That's an interesting tool, but I'm not sure about the assumptions they've used. They seem to have underestimated the number of beds and critical care beds in the country (despite NHS regularly publishing them), unless there's more calculations discounting expected non-Covid demand - also unclear whether field hospital beds have been included.

 

Important to bear in mind this bit, which might sound familiar: "The IHME said its model was designed to be updated from day to day as the pandemic goes on. For a country such as the UK, which is quite early on in its outbreak, the uncertainty was higher and the headline numbers might change over the next few days as more data is collected."

 

The director also highlights the suggestion that deaths in Europe might exceed deaths in the US. Which isn't that surprising really, considering there are twice as many people here.

 

Beyond the stats, this is clearly the key message, echoing the message from Imperial's team as well: “It is unequivocally evident that social distancing can, when well implemented and maintained, control the epidemic, leading to declining death rates. Those nations hit hard early on implemented social distancing orders and may have the worst behind them as they are seeing important progress in reducing their death rates. Each nation’s trajectory will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions.”

 

They also use a similar timeframe to the recent Imperial discussions, modelling through to end-May (which still seems a bit optimistic to me, but hopefully we're in position for some kind of relaxation there). Model is here if people want to have a look: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

 

The research article along with the model only seems to go into the US scenarios, I haven't seen any sources for other country's data. Haven't read it properly yet as I'm still working.

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

19 minutes ago, Captain Turdseye said:

What a time to be alive. 
 

 

His face on the bottom right one makes it look like he's having a rather difficult dump through someone's front window.

[Pureblood]

6 minutes ago, Pidge said:

That's an interesting tool, but I'm not sure about the assumptions they've used. They seem to have underestimated the number of beds and critical care beds in the country (despite NHS regularly publishing them), unless there's more calculations discounting expected non-Covid demand - also unclear whether field hospital beds have been included.

 

Important to bear in mind this bit, which might sound familiar: "The IHME said its model was designed to be updated from day to day as the pandemic goes on. For a country such as the UK, which is quite early on in its outbreak, the uncertainty was higher and the headline numbers might change over the next few days as more data is collected."

 

The director also highlights the suggestion that deaths in Europe might exceed deaths in the US. Which isn't that surprising really, considering there are twice as many people here.

 

Beyond the stats, this is clearly the key message, echoing the message from Imperial's team as well: “It is unequivocally evident that social distancing can, when well implemented and maintained, control the epidemic, leading to declining death rates. Those nations hit hard early on implemented social distancing orders and may have the worst behind them as they are seeing important progress in reducing their death rates. Each nation’s trajectory will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions.”

 

They also use a similar timeframe to the recent Imperial discussions, modelling through to end-May (which still seems a bit optimistic to me, but hopefully we're in position for some kind of relaxation there). Model is here if people want to have a look: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

 

The research article along with the model only seems to go into the US scenarios, I haven't seen any sources for other country's data. Haven't read it properly yet as I'm still working.

Repped for your lengthy input and analysis.  

 

If it was up to to me Boris Johnson would face criminal liability for flirting with herd immunity in the event that 60,000 die by August.  The numbers projected there are horrific. 

[Rico1304]

59 minutes ago, TK421 said:

Here you go, this will cheer you up.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

Ssh busy. 

[Pureblood]

9 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

Ssh busy. 

Repped for your lengthy input and an... no, wait.

[Pidge]

15 minutes ago, TK421 said:

Repped for your lengthy input and analysis.  

 

If it was up to to me Boris Johnson would face criminal liability for flirting with herd immunity in the event that 60,000 die by August.  The numbers projected there are horrific. 

I agree. I think even if things aren't that severe, there have clearly been missed opportunities along the way to get ahead of the curve and the country failed in several respects. Preparation for PPE, bed clearance and investment to increase capacity could well have all saved lives.

 

There must be a public inquiry.

[Dougie Do'ins]

Ex doctor who came out of retirement to help has died at a London hospital.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52204509

[Dougie Do'ins]

Some Welsh NHS staff with Covid-19 have been given wrong test results and were told they did not have coronavirus, BBC Wales has learned.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52205495

[Dougie Do'ins]

Is she hinting something isn't quite what it seems ?

 

 

 

 

[JustTosh]

1 hour ago, Pidge said:

Each nation’s trajectory will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions.”

 

80 years ago our grandfathers were given a helmit and a gun and asked to go to war to protect the country. They obliged. Now, their grandsons are asked to relax 3 weeks on the couch. Too big an ask.

 

[Bjornebye]

11 minutes ago, JustTosh said:

80 years ago our grandfathers were given a helmit and a gun and asked to go to war to protect the country. They obliged. Now, their grandsons are asked to relax 3 weeks on the couch. Too big an ask.

 

For the ones with wives or girlfriends? Yes. 

[Bjornebye]

34 minutes ago, Dougie Do'ins said:

Ex doctor who came out of retirement to help has died at a London hospital.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52204509

Fuck sake 

[SasaS]

French reporting really makes a mockery of all these statistical models. How many cases? Here, we found 23,000 cases we have not reported before and we will be completely randomly including the numbers  in our daily statistic throughout the week.  

[TheHowieLama]

3 minutes ago, SasaS said:

French reporting really makes a mockery of all these statistical models. How many cases? Here, we found 23,000 cases we have not reported before and we will be completely randomly including the numbers  in our daily statistic throughout the week.  

Chasing your tail on any of these numbers - just something to keep you busy.

[Curly]

2 hours ago, TK421 said:

Here you go, this will cheer you up.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

Isn’t that graph wrong already? It’s got the wrong results for today and last couple of days?

 

Also, what’s the negative connotation in calling someone a “pro-furlough cunt”? I’m on furlough at the minute and very grateful for it. It’s keeping us afloat. I’m confused.

[Pureblood]

8 minutes ago, belarus said:

Isn’t that graph wrong already? It’s got the wrong results for today and last couple of days?

 

Also, what’s the negative connotation in calling someone a “pro-furlough cunt”? I’m on furlough at the minute and very grateful for it. It’s keeping us afloat. I’m confused.

Fair point re the graph, yes.  The overall point may stand, though.  

 

He made a post on the FSG thread supporting the club's position.  

[Curly]

12 minutes ago, TK421 said:

Fair point re the graph, yes.  The overall point may stand, though.  

 

He made a post on the FSG thread supporting the club's position.  

Oh, I see. Thanks mate