Russia v Ukraine

[Vincent Vega]

Not sure if this has been posted as about 25% of the main contributors to this thread are on ignore. This is a brilliant report and unbelievably graphic by the standards of the BBC.

 

[Bjornebye]

5 minutes ago, Vincent Vega said:

Not sure if this has been posted as about 25% of the main contributors to this thread are on ignore. This is a brilliant report and unbelievably graphic by the standards of the BBC.

 

The bravery of those who have stayed is unreal. 

[Em City]

9 minutes ago, Vincent Vega said:

Not sure if this has been posted as about 25% of the main contributors to this thread are on ignore. This is a brilliant report and unbelievably graphic by the standards of the BBC.

 

 

That is some bit of journalism, fair play to them for showing the reality of war. You won't find that on flash U.S networks.

[Bjornebye]

 

 

 

[Arniepie]

12 hours ago, Fugitive said:

I apologise for calling you a nazi, I dont think you are but what else do you think the west should do? Putin is not going to negotiate as that will be a sign of weakness aand why would the Ukrainians concede anything to Russia? we cant start direct confrontation. Sanctions are the only thing that will hurta him. It will eventually cause massive unrest and will make him vulnerable. 

There is certainly an argument to be had about sanctions. 

Didn't we impose them on Iraq and it was just normal people who suffered?

And how many years have north Korea had sanctions imposed on them?

Then of couse there is all the complications about what we get from Russia.

Saying that, they are obviously much preferable to the alternative option of all out war.

[Pureblood]

3 hours ago, Shooter in the Motor said:

It is and you know it.

Oh well, somebody needs to inform J.K Rowling. 

[SasaS]

Tom Cooper for today.

 

"Good morning everybody!

Here’s my review for the last 24-36 hours (11 Mar 22).

 

CAA - Combined Arms Army (Russia)

BTG - Battalion Tactical Group (Russia)

GMRB - Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (Russia)

GMRD - Guards Motor Rifle Division (Russia)

GTA - Guards Tank Army (Russia)

GTD - Guards Tank Division (Russia)

IFV - infantry fighting vehicle

LOC - Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass region)

MBT - main battle

Mech - Mechanised Brigade (Ukraine)

MRB - Motorized Rifle Brigade (throw a G in the front if Guards)

MRD - Motorized Rifle Division (ditto for the G for Guards). Majority of the Russian Ground Forces are Motorized Rifle (i.e. Mechanized Infantry with supporting tanks)

RFA – Russian Federation Army/Russian Armed Forces

RF-9xxxx - Russian military aviation registration

UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle

VDV - Vozdushno-desantnye voyska (Russian Airborne forces)

VKS - Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)

West OSK – Western Military District, RFA

STRATEGIC

Russia is running a fake-news campaign about ‘discovery of nuclear weapons development….and biological weapons in Ukraine’. The entire story is such a load of nonsense, that even that Balloon of the Russian ambassador to the UN nearly fell asleep while reading it…(I certainly did while watching his appearance on the TV). The regime in Beijing ‘likes’ it though, because there’s nothing better but to divert public attention from its responsibility for the COVID pandemic: after all, everybody knows it’s in Ukraine where the US-Americans are eating bats, and in Austria where the police helicopters are spraying the virus, and then the vaccine, depending on the time of the day…. Really, that’s about it: I’ll not waste further time with that trash.

More important is that the RFA has meanwhile deployed all of its 220,000 ‘or so’ regular troops in Ukraine, plus all about 20,000 ‘auxiliaries’ (foremost including Chechens, Wagner, and Separatists). Deduct from this figure about 15,000 killed, wounded, missing, taken prisoner of war – and it’s obvious that the Russians now have less troops than the fully-mobilised Ukraine. Foremost: the RFA simply has no reserves any more, at least not without general mobilisation, which the Fool in Kremlin – always scared of Russian mothers - is keen to avoid (mind what I wrote about Putin's actual aim of this war!). Unsurprisingly. he is calling for volunteers ‘willing to go to the special operation zone’, and has – demonstratively – ‘accepted’ Shoygu’s announcement that ‘more than 16,000 volunteers from the Middle East’, all (according to Shoygu) ‘experienced from fighting ISIS’, and ‘ready to fight for the LPR and DPR’.

(EDIT: Here I should add that, on 23 and 24 March, commanders of all the RFA's armies deployed for invasion of Ukraine, have forced all their conscripts to sign a contract, de-facto converting them from conscripts to 'professional soldiers' in a mater of seconds. Thus, actually, this is just another of Putin's scams. Again: he's scared of accountability, and for him 'democracy = accountability'. Thus, he's going to do everything in his powers to avoid accountability: the FSB is to blame for wrong intel, the RFA for poor performance, for pushing conscripts into combat.... everybody is guilty and responsible for everything that went wrong. Just not Vladimir Putin....)

It so happens that I know a lil’ bit about the Assad regime, and thus can say: that would account for about a third of what bankrupt Bashar can still afford to pay. Foremost, his troops have proven as better joggers than combatants when fighting the IS: indeed, they rarely fought it (only Russians did even less so), and when: they were almost always defeated (without the IRGC/Hezbollah, they could have never pushed the ISIS away from Homs and/or Palmyra, or defended Dayr az-Zawr). Plus, by the time all the 16,000 might arrive in Ukraine – an entirely unknown terrain and unusual climate for them (provided they ever turn up) – they’ll be insufficient to replace RFA’s losses. With other words, this is yet more PRBS from Moscow, which, in reality, is already pumping into Ukraine whatever reservist units it can scratch together To illustrate the poor condition of units in question: some are equipped with 40-years-old T-72As, 50-years-old ZSU-23-4s, and towed-artillery. By best will, but that’s an ‘antiquities show’ by standards of this war.

RUMINT from the DC has it that ‘more sophisticated’ air defence systems are to be sent to Ukraine. Guess, that might mean ‘more than MANPADS’. Also, that with Polish MiG-29s should still be ‘on the table’ etc., etc., etc…. really, reminds of that Russian’s appearance at the UNSC today…

 

AIR

Yesterday early in the morning, the VKS flew an air strike on a metallurgical plan in Dnipro (formerly: Dnipropetrovsk). There were one or two big explosions, some kind of a hall, and at least one apartment building were destroyed. Another air strike hit the town of Korosten, north-west of Kyiv.

Late in the evening, Russia used ‘long-range precision-guided strike’ – read: ballistic missiles – to hit the Motor Works in Lutsk: the only factory in Ukraine capable of overhauling and repairing RD-33-engines for MiG-29s. This caused quite a big blast and a massive conflagration. Konashenko, the spox for the Keystone Cops in Moscow, further stated that Russia attacked the nearby air base, and the Ivano-Frankivsk AB, too. Erm…why do that if only a day before he declared the UkAF for ‘90% destroyed’….?

Ukrainians have claimed two Su-30s as shot down yesterday. As usually, there’s no evidence: at most it’s going to become available days later.

As of yesterday morning, the US Department of Defence reported the Russians firing a total of 775 ballistic missiles at Ukraine, and that the intensity of their deployment is increasing (from around 30 a day to about 65 within 24 hours).

NORTH

Exploiting the bad weather (low clouds and snow) – and thus the absence of TB.2s - the CO 35th CAA seems to have deployed his reserve – the 36th MRB – to push south over the E-40 highway, link up with about two depleted battalions of VDVs (survivors of earlier fighting) and secure villages of Kopliv and Krasnohorodka, yesterday. That was a costly action, though, as the 36th MRB lost about two dozens of MBTs and IFVs in the process, while the VDVs were without combat vehicles for over a week. Guess, this prong is now going to stop and the troops re-equip with reserve fighting vehicles as next.

Further north, the biggest problem for the 35th CAA is the fact that the Ukrainians have blown up all the bridges on the Irpin River. Yesterday, the Russians (probably the 76th VDV) attempted to cross near Moscun, but were promptly repelled (this is of immense importance, then the river-crossing- and bridgehead-operations are one of focuses in training of RFA’s officers, and once they establish a bridgehead, it’s extremely hard to kick them out).

On the left bank of the Dnepr, the Russian advance into eastern outskirts of Kyiv was stopped about 9km short of the downtown, by the Ukrainians launching a counterattack into flanks of the 27th GMRB or 2nd GMRD in the Polisky Raion area, and forced the Russians to withdraw. The other spearhead of the 2nd GTA meanwhile punched through and reached the Skybyn in the north, but was ambushed and forced to withdraw towards Bohdanivka.

Once again, one thing is obvious: the Russians lack enough troops to exploit such opportunities....or at least I do not understand why are they still trying 'thunder run'-style, instead of methodic, road-by-road advance... really, it's so hard to accept that the Russian commanders are such a bunch of incompetents in what they've been trained for 70+ years....

Further north, RUMINT has it that the 41st CAA has constructed a pontoon bridge over the Desna River. This might help it bring additional 2-3 BTGs to the outskirts of north-eastern Kyiv, but I doubt this will be enough. Essentially, this is all ‘positional warfare’ with different Russian BTGs trying here and there, suffering attrition in exchange for minor advances. The mass of the 41st CAA is tied-down around Chernihiv and Nizyn and of no help. Thus, I wonder if the 35th and the 2nd GTA have the sufficient mass to try a coordinated, pincer offensive on Kyiv at all. They’ve suffered too heavy losses just to reach the city and would now have to find a way to concentrate at least 2-3 BTGs (each) on a narrow front (probably down main roads) for any kind of meaningful advance.

A little bit confusing for me are media-reports along which there is fighting 'in south of Kyiv'. Haven't seen any kind of evidence for this, and the highway to Bila Tserkva is still open.

NORTH-EAST

Defences of Chernihiv not only repelled a major attack of the 74th MRB of the 41st CAA from the north, but liberated the village of Baklanovka Muraviika (capturing up to 8 T-80s of the 90th TD in the process) and thus re-established contact to the pocket of Nizhyn, further south. The Russians reacted with massive artillery bombardment of both Chernihiv and Nizhyn, including the use of BM-30 Uragan MRLS’: there were certainly numerous casualties.

At least some good news from Sumy: miraculously, the ‘humanitarian corridor’ there is working and the evacuation came forward quite well yesterday, with over 5,000 civilians escaping in direction of Poltava, largely without interruptions.

Can't find any news on what was the 1st GTA doing yesterday: simply no reports by either side. Perhaps it stopped for that humanitarian corridor, after all...

In the Kharkiv area, the defenders say they’re encountering an increasing number of RFA’s reservists units. ‘Of course’, the city was subjected to continuous air strikes and artillery barrages, throughout the day: between others, an air strike during the evening from Thursday to Friday, hit an institute involved in experimental nuclear research: this was set on fire: for a party claiming to have evidence for Ukrainians working on nuclear weapons, the Russians are particularly keen to destroy that evidence….

South-east of Kharkiv, the 144th MRD of the 6th CAA has reached Petrivske, and pressed on Izium from the north. The latter is ‘classic’ for RFA’s behaviour: the town (held by what is left of the Ukrainian 53rd Mech) is actually a part of the ‘humanitarian corridor’ for evacuation of civilians from Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in direction of Dnipro. This was ‘officially opened’ in the morning, but repeatedly interrupted by the Russian shelling of Izium. That said, I guess the Ukrainians were not outdone in this regards: they seem to have rushed reinforcements to Andriivka and Petrivske: this was just in time then if the 144th MRD punches further south-west, I doubt the Ukrainians could stop it before it would reach the E105 highway, connecting Kharkiv with Dnipro.

 

EAST

The eastern Ukrainian frontline from Rubizhne in the north, down the LOC is holding, but its flanks are now rolled up - from north and from the south. Especially worrying is the Russian penetration in the south: yesterday, elements of the 150th MRD of the 8th CAA (which is pushing out of Donbass) have reached Staroliynivka, almost 80km north of southernmost positions of the 56th MRB. The latter has lost the battle for Volnovakha (where the 53rd Mech appears to have lost about a company worth of T-64s), but is still holding out about 15km north of Mariupol. However, Staroliynivka is in its rear, about 40km as the crow flies from the easternmost positions of the 19th MRD in Polohy and the 42nd MRD’s positions outside Hulyaipole. The only reason the Russians haven’t already closed this pocket is that – while completely flat – the terrain is dominated by plentiful fields, all of which are soft and making movement of vehicles extremely difficult. Still, unless the Ukrainians rush at least a brigade-worth of their troops to help, or withdraw the 56th MRB northwards, this precious regular unit is certainly going to get cut off.

How short on troops for the task on hand is the 49th CAA shows the fact that its CO rushed the 810th Marine Brigade all the way from Enerhodar on the Dniepr, to reinforce the assault of the 19th MRD on Mariupol from the north. To me, this appears ‘strange’, for Marines might be good infantry, but lack suitable support weaponry. Still, they helped secure the Sartana District (with the local railway station), yesterday. The 19th MRD became entangled in the fighting for the 24th District and its advance along the coast of the Azov sea became bogged down somewhere between the airport and the School 33. In the east of Mariupol, the 150th MRD is not coming forward for days already.

 

 

SOUTH

Amid rumours that the West OSK sacked Zusko (there’s no confirmation for this, yet), the 59th CAA is on the road again. Surprisingly enough (at least for me): instead of west, it turned north, and since two days its 20th GMRD is rolling up the H11 on Kryvyi Rih. Except the Russians have excellent reconnaissance of this area (which I doubt, alone because of the weather), I cannot but consider this for ‘irresponsible, short of insane’: even if the Ukrainian 17th Tank didn’t do anything useful almost since the start of the war, it must be expected to have entrenched itself in that city, where it was certainly bolstered by units of the National Guard and civilian volunteers, meanwhile. Moreover, one can’t invest Voznesensk with 2-3 depleted BTGs, Mykolaiv with 2-3 depleted BTGs, hold Kherson with 1-2 BTGs, and still hope – already into the third week of war – to get Kryvy Rih with remaining 1,5-2 BTGs…

That’s not enough to at least encircle the city, and might indicate that Zusko is really not in command any more. Guess, we've got to wait and see...

[Anubis]

The rest of the Russian force sacking Zusko.

 

 

[Red Phoenix]

3 hours ago, Gnasher said:

Not good in Mariupol, not good at all, some reports suggest over 1500 dead,

 

 

 

It's horrible that they haven't been able to get people out of there properly and not being able to get a good enough ceasefire going to do that is one of the most stupid things I've seen so far in all of this. And obviously the loss of life is something that can't really be put into words. It's a nightmare and all sides really need to work out some way of ending this peacefully as soon as possible.

 

I'm glad that we're seeing more talks but we could really do with them actually fucking getting somewhere closer to actually doing something.

[polymerpunkah]

"Red Famine"

 

by Anne Applebaum

 

If you're looking for an in-depth examination of the Soviet-created famine that starved 4 million Ukrainians to death in the early 1930s this would be a good choice. It also deals with the wider attempts of the Soviets to destroy Ukrainian culture throughout the time period.

 

It might give you some insight into why the Ukrainians aren't surrendering, despite the inhumane barbarity of Putin's attacks. 

[M_B]

 

[J-V]

Love me a bit of Pussy Riot. Fuck knows what the music is like.

[Bjornebye]

3 minutes ago, J-V said:

Love me a bt of Pussy Riot. Fuck knows what the music is like.

They wrote the the Birds of a Feather theme 

[dockers_strike]

2 hours ago, polymerpunkah said:

"Red Famine"

 

by Anne Applebaum

 

If you're looking for an in-depth examination of the Soviet-created famine that starved 4 million Ukrainians to death in the early 1930s this would be a good choice. It also deals with the wider attempts of the Soviets to destroy Ukrainian culture throughout the time period.

 

It might give you some insight into why the Ukrainians aren't surrendering, despite the inhumane barbarity of Putin's attacks. 

Also makes you wonder why Adolf Putin says Ukraine is Russian, always has been, always will be!

[Section_31]

A third Russian general has been killed in Ukraine in just eight days.

 

 

 

[Red Phoenix]

Deleted May 2018 tweet from Ro Khanna :

 

 

Even the article link doesn't work (checked from here), it's had /archive/ added to the address and is here now instead : America’s Collusion With Neo-Nazis

 

 

[Numero Veinticinco]

Thanks RP. Didn’t know there were links to Neo Nazis in Ukraine. Kinda glad big Poots is killing people now. 
 

 

[TheHowieLama]

How do you end up with a deleted tweet from 4 years ago? 

[Red Phoenix]

1 minute ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

Thanks RP. Didn’t know there were links to Neo Nazis in Ukraine. Kinda glad big Poots is killing people now.

 

I wouldn't have posted it if he'd not deleted it, and still find this idea that some of us are happy to see Putin invading because there's neo Nazis in Ukraine odd. It's also odd that Khanna felt the need to delete a tweet that's approaching four years old and where he said nothing wrong.

[Red Phoenix]

1 minute ago, TheHowieLama said:

How do you end up with a deleted tweet from 4 years ago? 

 

Was reading Max Blumenthal's twitter :

 

 

[Numero Veinticinco]

5 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

I wouldn't have posted it if he'd not deleted it, and still find this idea that some of us are happy to see Putin invading because there's neo Nazis in Ukraine odd. It's also odd that Khanna felt the need to delete a tweet that's approaching four years old and where he said nothing wrong.

It isn't that you're happy to see Putin invading, I'm not suggestion you are - or anyone here - it's the strange way some are posting about it. It happens in the Israel thread too, but the other way around. What some are doing here is akin to posting about Israel is the only democracy and how Hamas are firing rockets without mentioning the absolute terror going on. It's almost as if the agenda is to deflect and protect due to tribalism, and that's how you're coming across to me. 

[Red Phoenix]

24 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

It's almost as if the agenda is to deflect and protect due to tribalism, and that's how you're coming across to me. 

 

My agenda is this : I think the history of what's happened in Ukraine is important. I also want the war to stop through talks between leaders instead of being a huge long lasting proxy war or something even worse.

[Red Phoenix]

From October 2019 :

 

Quote

Some locals fear they may be in danger once the Ukrainian army pulls back. Others believe the greater distance between the two sides’ positions will make their town safer.

That controversy rose to the surface when Zelensky met with the veterans, who took up residence in an abandoned house. Their first disagreement was about what residents of Zolote want.

Zelensky claimed that locals want disengagement and that the larger distance between the sides would decrease the number of soldiers being killed each month. But the veterans argued that troop withdrawal is effectively capitulation and that locals don’t support it.

However, the biggest argument erupted when someone informed Zelensky that the veterans had illegal arms, which they allegedly stored under their beds. The president then demanded they remove the weapons from Zolote.

When one veteran, Denys Yantar, said they had no arms and wanted instead to discuss protests against the planned disengagement that had taken place across Ukraine, Zelensky became furious.

“Listen, Denys, I’m the president of this country. I’m 41 years old. I’m not a loser. I came to you and told you: remove the weapons. Don’t shift the conversation to some protests,” Zelensky said, videos of the exchange show. As he said this, Zelensky aggressively approached Yantar, who heads the National Corps, a political offshoot of the far-right Azov volunteer battalion, in Mykolaiv city.

“But we’ve discussed that,” Yantar said.

“I wanted to see understanding in your eyes. But, instead, I saw a guy who’s decided that this is some loser standing in front of him,” Zelensky said.

Captured on video, the incident sparked significant criticism on social media. Many claimed that Zelensky should have spoken more politely to war veterans. Shortly after the conversation, Zelensky admitted on social media that some of the talks were “emotional.”

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, a rock musician and leader of the Voice party, which has 20 members in parliament, wrote on Facebook that disrespectful conversations with veterans “would not bring peace but rather would bring rage.”

Andriy Biletsky, head of National Corps and the Azov Battalion, threatened Zelensky on his YouTube channel that more veterans would head to Zolote if the president tried to evict them from the town. “There will be thousands there instead of several dozen,” he said.

Meanwhile, National Police Deputy Chief Vadym Troyan, who was previously Biletsky’s deputy in Azov in 2014, reported on Oct. 27 that the veterans had removed their weapons from Zolote. Troyan claimed the veterans had held the weapons legally, although military officials had previously stated the opposite.

Singer Sofia Fedyna, who is a lawmaker with the European Solidarity party of former President Petro Poroshenko, which has 27 seats in parliament, was particularly aggressive in her response. She issued physical threats against Zelensky.

“Mr. President thinks he is immortal,” she said in a video shared on Facebook. “A grenade may explode there, by chance. And it would be the nicest if this happened during Moscow’s shelling when someone comes to the front line wearing a white or blue shirt.”

Zelensky has previously visited the front line dressed in civilian clothing, rather than military fatigues.

Ruslan Stefanchuk, deputy speaker of parliament from Zelensky’s party, called on Ukrainian police to investigate Fedyna’s comments.

 

 

‘I’m not a loser’: Zelensky clashes with veterans over Donbas disengagement

[TheHowieLama]

12 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

My agenda is this : I think the history of what's happened in Ukraine is important. I also want the war to stop through talks between leaders instead of being a huge long lasting proxy war or something even worse.

I think some folks are pointing out to you that history did not start in 2014.

[Red Phoenix]

29 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

I think some folks are pointing out to you that history did not start in 2014.

 

It seems to me like if anyone's posting about US meddling, NATO, neo-Nazis or anything other than how Russia and Putin are bad for starting the invasion on the 24th (which we all agree on) the main aim is to shut that discussion down.

 

I know that it's a war though which will result in arguments a lot more easily than usual and I have no intention of posting several times a day on those subjects. I'll try to be more balanced in my posts too and also post less (which I'd prefer anyway).