Russia v Ukraine

[SasaS]

The war is constantly evolving, Russians are continuously adapting.

[TheHowieLama]

A version of good people on both sides as it were.

[Bobby Hundreds]

If Trump gets in aren't Ukraine completely fucked?

[Red Phoenix]

10 hours ago, TheSire said:

Unfortunately they're kind of forced into giving up some of these positions. A lack of sufficient air defence coverage at the front lines is allowing the Russians to hit front line positions with guided bombs, something like 150 per day are hitting for months.

 

The blasts are huge, about 1500kg of explosives per bomb (enough to flatten a street of houses) so this just totally destroys defensive fortifications and they can't do anything to defend against it due to a massive lack of air defense systems (the Americans seem more than happy to supply Israel with stuff they don't need, we can see where their priorities lie).

 

Must be horrible just having to hold the line and getting hammered with air strikes, artillery and drones. Despite this, Russia still can't make meaningful gains on a large scale. Pure attrition.

 

10 hours ago, TheSire said:

I had heard about complaints about poor leadership early during the Kharkiv offensive, I think a load of commanders were sacked? Hard to tell if it's finger pointing etc.

 

Yeah I can't imagine how bad it must be having to deal with all of the bombing and everything else that's going on there. Ukraine have been hitting the Belgorod region for a while now too which might not have been the best idea if it's just brought Russians back into Kharkiv. Now Ukraine have had to move forces from Donbas into the area as well I think so things could get worse there shortly.

 

I don't know anything about leadership in Kharkiv either, I just look at what's happening in Donbas every so often mainly.

[SasaS]

4 hours ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

 

Yeah I can't imagine how bad it must be having to deal with all of the bombing and everything else that's going on there. Ukraine have been hitting the Belgorod region for a while now too which might not have been the best idea if it's just brought Russians back into Kharkiv. Now Ukraine have had to move forces from Donbas into the area as well I think so things could get worse there shortly.

 

I don't know anything about leadership in Kharkiv either, I just look at what's happening in Donbas every so often mainly.

 

Russia is trying to extend the frontlines as they believe they have advantage in all aspects and areas and that this will increase the rate of attrition of Ukrainian resources and forces thus making it easier to exploit possible breakthroughs if Ukrainian reserves are already committed.

[Red Phoenix]

2 hours ago, SasaS said:

Russia is trying to extend the frontlines as they believe they have advantage in all aspects and areas and that this will increase the rate of attrition of Ukrainian resources and forces thus making it easier to exploit possible breakthroughs if Ukrainian reserves are already committed.

 

I've seen Stoltenberg and others pushing for Ukraine to be allowed to do what they want with weapons now too. Seeing as they now have long range ATACMS in the country this creates a big area of Russia that can be hit and as one response I'm starting to get Turkey's Syria "buffer zone" vibes from what's starting to happen. There's some talk in parts of twitter about the Sumy region being next as well and if that happens maybe some type of buffer zone idea could be what's planned. The Sumy talk could be completely wrong though seeing as I'm talking about twitter where you have to spend half the time working out what's even real on there.

[TheHowieLama]

17 hours ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

If Trump gets in aren't Ukraine completely fucked?

Just Ukraine?

[SasaS]

14 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

I've seen Stoltenberg and others pushing for Ukraine to be allowed to do what they want with weapons now too. Seeing as they now have long range ATACMS in the country this creates a big area of Russia that can be hit and as one response I'm starting to get Turkey's Syria "buffer zone" vibes from what's starting to happen. There's some talk in parts of twitter about the Sumy region being next as well and if that happens maybe some type of buffer zone idea could be what's planned. The Sumy talk could be completely wrong though seeing as I'm talking about twitter where you have to spend half the time working out what's even real on there.

 

Buffer zone makes little sense because longer range Ukrainian weapons can already hit targets deep into Russia, they are regularly attacking refineries with drones almost every night. If they allow Ukraine to also use Western weaponry, it would probably be restricted to military targets that serve as lunch pads for attacks on Ukraine, or Russian planes that release huge glide bombs targeting Ukrainian positions from Russia's airspace.

[Red Phoenix]

15 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Buffer zone makes little sense because longer range Ukrainian weapons can already hit targets deep into Russia, they are regularly attacking refineries with drones almost every night. If they allow Ukraine to also use Western weaponry, it would probably be restricted to military targets that serve as lunch pads for attacks on Ukraine, or Russian planes that release huge glide bombs targeting Ukrainian positions from Russia's airspace.

 

I can't see how they stop the glide bomb issue with ATACMS or anything similar as Russia will just launch planes from outside of their range. The Economist was talking about Patriot batteries being able to help though along with F-16's, so maybe that will help deal with it if they arrive :

 

 

link

[SasaS]

2 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

I can't see how they stop the glide bomb issue with ATACMS or anything similar as Russia will just launch planes from outside of their range. The Economist was talking about Patriot batteries being able to help though along with F-16's, so maybe that will help deal with it if they arrive :

 

 

Patriots can apparently be used in what they call an offensive, attacking mode, which Ukraine already used to "ambush" several Russian planes in the Belgorod area several months ago, which may not made those who delivered them very happy. What Ukraine would like is have more of them and be allowed to attack Russian planes in Russian airspace. Glide bombs are dangerous now because they are no longer "spray and prey" but are being fitted with relatively cheap guidance systems, which may be tricky to jam with EW. However, the range of this bombs is limited, so they cannot just move back as far as they want, this works only with missiles, and they are rather expensive and limited in number.

 

ATACMS would be used against staging areas across the border in the Kharkiv area where they say Russians now how relative impunity with logistics and such. Until Russians find a way to jam them again, of course.

 

 

 

 

[TheSire]

5 hours ago, SasaS said:

 

Russia is trying to extend the frontlines as they believe they have advantage in all aspects and areas and that this will increase the rate of attrition of Ukrainian resources and forces thus making it easier to exploit possible breakthroughs if Ukrainian reserves are already committed.

It does look like they're widening the front north of Kharkiv on both the East and West of that region. I imagine they'll do the usual and try to encircle if they can punch far south enough although it looks like it'll be a slow grind, nothing new i guess! Pretty much all of the territory Russia captured was in the first few weeks of the 2022 invasion. 

[TheSire]

2 hours ago, SasaS said:

 

Buffer zone makes little sense because longer range Ukrainian weapons can already hit targets deep into Russia, they are regularly attacking refineries with drones almost every night. If they allow Ukraine to also use Western weaponry, it would probably be restricted to military targets that serve as lunch pads for attacks on Ukraine, or Russian planes that release huge glide bombs targeting Ukrainian positions from Russia's airspace.

If they could hit air bases this would probably completely stop Russia from flattening fortifications and destroying towns with glide bombs.

[TheSire]

2 hours ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

I can't see how they stop the glide bomb issue with ATACMS or anything similar as Russia will just launch planes from outside of their range. The Economist was talking about Patriot batteries being able to help though along with F-16's, so maybe that will help deal with it if they arrive :

 

 

link

I think glide bomb range is only about 60km? They'd target air bases where the planes are stationed near the borders which would force Russia to reduce the volume of these attacks, launching from further away would be less practical because of lack of fuel tp fly further.

[TheSire]

2 hours ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

I can't see how they stop the glide bomb issue with ATACMS or anything similar as Russia will just launch planes from outside of their range. The Economist was talking about Patriot batteries being able to help though along with F-16's, so maybe that will help deal with it if they arrive :

 

 

link

The F16s I don't really get. They're shitter than everything Russia have because their range of engagement is shorter so they'd probably get shot down too easily. I mean it's not too different to some of the shitty aid ukraine has actually received. Huge amounts of what's been promised hasn't even arrived.

[Red Phoenix]

2 hours ago, SasaS said:

 

Patriots can apparently be used in what they call an offensive, attacking mode, which Ukraine already used to "ambush" several Russian planes in the Belgorod area several months ago, which may not made those who delivered them very happy. What Ukraine would like is have more of them and be allowed to attack Russian planes in Russian airspace. Glide bombs are dangerous now because they are no longer "spray and prey" but are being fitted with relatively cheap guidance systems, which may be tricky to jam with EW. However, the range of this bombs is limited, so they cannot just move back as far as they want, this works only with missiles, and they are rather expensive and limited in number.

 

ATACMS would be used against staging areas across the border in the Kharkiv area where they say Russians now how relative impunity with logistics and such. Until Russians find a way to jam them again, of course.

 

8 minutes ago, TheSire said:

I think glide bomb range is only about 60km? They'd target air bases where the planes are stationed near the borders which would force Russia to reduce the volume of these attacks, launching from further away would be less practical because of lack of fuel tp fly further.

 

I didn't think the glide bombs would be much of an issue for Russia as they'd move them as far back as they wanted to. Agreed that it'd be less practical for them but if they're so obsessed with using them they'll probably carry on. I'm not pretending to know much about how all of this works though and suppose Patriots look like one of the best options with it then being how many Ukraine can get hold of and how long they can last if they get enough to stop the bombing to any decent extent.

[SasaS]

27 minutes ago, TheSire said:

It does look like they're widening the front north of Kharkiv on both the East and West of that region. I imagine they'll do the usual and try to encircle if they can punch far south enough although it looks like it'll be a slow grind, nothing new i guess! Pretty much all of the territory Russia captured was in the first few weeks of the 2022 invasion. 

 

Both sides have the same problem, everything is now so closely watched and saturated with drones, mines, ATGMs that any advance quickly becomes very costly.

 

On F16s, I don't think anything else was the option in relatively short time for air force training standards and the quantities that would make at least some sense. Someone said Grippen would have been the better option, but I don't know how widespread it is, and the cost of new planes and delivery times would probably be prohibitively high and long.

[TheSire]

8 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

Both sides have the same problem, everything is now so closely watched and saturated with drones, mines, ATGMs that any advance quickly becomes very costly.

 

On F16s, I don't think anything else was the option in relatively short time for air force training standards and the quantities that would make at least some sense. Someone said Grippen would have been the better option, but I don't know how widespread it is, and the cost of new planes and delivery times would probably be prohibitively high and long.

Very fair points! Modern warfare is basically attritional with the level of technology available, the element of surprise seems to be gone so goodbye large scale mechanised assaults. The talk of failed counter offensives etc in the lazy mainstream press was quite frustrating as these writers don't really know what they're talking about and simplifying things for the target audience means the nuance is lost.

[SasaS]

Just to illustrate the cost of moving forward, Oryx are now at over 9,000 Russian armoured vehicles visually confirmed lost, 80 days ago I made a post that they were at 8,000. Exactly a year ago they were at 5,500, so about 4,500 in 12 months.

 

And Oryx I don' t think count as comprehensively as they used to. This is something like 400 tanks, light tanks, armoured fighting vehicles and armoured infantry transporting vehicles per month recently, and only what is visually registered and then counted.

 

Even Ukraine, which doesn't have so many as Russia and doesn't attack all that much lost hundreds in just two relatively small breakthroughs during only about three months of last years offensive.

 

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

[SasaS]

When you try your hand at stand-up, but the material is all wrong.

 

https://x.com/TranslateMom/status/1795481709418295643

[SasaS]

Czech (shell) is in the mail!

 

 

https://kyivindependent.com/first-batch-of-shells-under-czech-led-initiative-may-arrive-in-ukraine-in-coming-days-fiala-says/

 

 

[Megadrive Man]

 

 

[Anubis]

Jesus, has this not gone to penalties yet?

[Harry's Lad]

Biden has partially lifted the ban on Ukraine using U.S arms in strikes on Russian territory to defend Kharkiv.

 

[SasaS]

Pew, pew, pew!

[Bjornebye]

Biden gives Ukraine permission to strike Russia. 
 

The weird hypocrisy and absolute lunacy ….. fucking hell 

 

This isn’t good.