Russia v Ukraine

[Numero Veinticinco]

6 hours ago, Strontium said:

 

I would say the interesting thing about this current conflict is how unbelievably simple it is. Russia, a dictatorship, has invaded Ukraine, a democracy, on the flimisest of grounds, with the intention of conquering it and either installing a puppet regime or outright annexing it.

When you put it like that, it’s almost as if you’re saying it’s a bad thing that Russia has invaded. You didn’t even mention NATO’s aggressive eastern expansion. 

[Red Phoenix]

1 hour ago, JagSquared said:

is there any credible view on what’s happening on the ground? Are the Ukrainians holding their own?

 

It could change at any moment but apart from Kyiv (that's been defended well) there's cities like Mariupol (south), Chernihiv (north) and Kharkiv (east, right next to Russia) that Russians have been trying to control and they've taken none of them so far. If their plan is to take over the whole of Ukraine they're nowhere near doing anything like that either at this stage.

[Bjornebye]

State of this. Also too thick to realise that other countries do take refugees/migrants not just Britain. I fucking hate these kinds of people 

[Section_31]

'we should look after our own' says man who moans about benefits, foodbanks and homelessness.

[Arniepie]

15 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

State of this. Also too thick to realise that other countries do take refugees/migrants not just Britain. I fucking hate these kinds of people 

And the explanation for the 2019 election suddenly becomes clear.

[General Dryness]

2 hours ago, Anubis said:

 

 

 

 

[Anubis]

Hey, Ukrainians, can you:

 

1. Show you have family in the UK.

2. Pick strawberries.

3. Make your way across a war-torn landscape to get to our visa application centre in Lviv.

 

Then come and make your application and we’ll get back to you in a few weeks!

 

 

[Pureblood]

https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/tory-torbay-mp-kevin-foster-6725590

 

Tory Torbay MP Kevin Foster slammed for deleted tweet says fleeing Ukrainians can apply to pick fruit and veg in UK

[Anubis]

 

 

[PestiRed]

50 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

State of this. Also too thick to realise that other countries do take refugees/migrants not just Britain. I fucking hate these kinds of people 

I can easily imagine these responses being written by Gnasher. They seem to reflect his isolationist, British first outlook

[SasaS]

Daily summary (from the same FB source as yesterday):

 

"Good morning everybody!

One request up front (indeed: a plea): please read my daily summaries. That would help us avoid questions that have already been addressed. I’m very busy just collecting and cross-checking all the info.

****

For the start: Western assessments along which, say, ‘Russia failed to encircle and isolate Kyiv’, are nonsense. The more info is becoming available, the clearer it is that Russia didn’t even try doing that. It tried a ‘thunder-run- & false-flag-style’ operation of driving into the city centre to kill or capture the government – and failed in that.

Similarly, reports along which Putin ordered a stop of advance for negotiations (Putin’s spox Peskov), or that the Russians ‘temporarily abandoned efforts to seize Chernihiv and Kharkiv’, are nonsense. As we’re to see yet, they only started seriously.

Ukrainian claims that Putin has fired the Chief of the General Staff, Army General Gerasimov have proven wrong. No surprise, actually: surprising is only that now it’s the Ukrainians who claim Gerasimov has ordered an all-out attack on Kyiv, the last night.

Finally, indicating how dangerous it is to fall for illusion that the social media is telling us everything one might want to know is the fact that the crucial frontline of this war is meanwhile not Kyiv, but the southern one. The weakest of all the Ukrainian frontlines. The Russian operational group there has broken through and it’s threatening Zaporozhye. That, ladies and gentlemen, and not the suburbs of the Ukrainian capital, is going to be decisive for the outcome of the first phase of this war.

AIR

The Ukrainian air defences were heavily hit in the first two days, but surviving elements remain active. Over the last 24 hours, they claimed to have shot down a VKS Su-25 and an Il-76 using S-300s, plus an Il-76 by Su-27 interceptor. Official US sources confirmed the two Il-76s, but there is no independent confirmation yet.

Ukrainian Air Force, which was evacuated and dispersed to numerous airfields in west and south-west, should’ve flown about 40 combat sorties the last 36 hours, mostly with Mi-24s, Su-25s and TB.2 UCAVs, and almost exclusively over southern central Ukraine. A Su-25 was shot down over the Kherson area, this morning, and its pilot killed.

The Russian air force…. Really hard to say what was it doing yesterday. Air strikes were reported on suburbs of Mariupol, but especially on targets north of Kyiv. This morning, the VKS bombed derelict and stored aircraft at the Mariupol Airport. The chief spox of the Keystone Cops in Moscow, Major-General Konashenko….sigh… sorry if I start rambling now, but I’m not surprised he’s both still a spokesperson and a Major-General, for some 7-8 years meanwhile (usually, he should’ve been promoted after four years). He’s still appearing like living a daydream during his press conferences, too – exactly like back in 2015-2016. Well, Konashenko claimed the destruction of ‘800 military facilities’ in Ukraine, apparently including numerous air bases.

Since he failed to provide any details, I guess I’m free to conclude that he still counts every single bomb dropped by the VKS as ‘1000% direct hit and destruction of the target’….

NORTH

According to Konashenko, the Russian Army has deployed a total of 14 BTGs north of Kyiv, and started to commit its operational reserve of 17 BTGs there. That’s confirming my assessment from yesterday about the Russians deploying about 30,000 troops in this sector.

….and is quite relative, because there is meanwhile no doubt that much of deployed equipment is in poor condition, and it takes time to tow it closer to the city. Thus, they’ve spent most of the day yesterday just trying to move all that gear to Kyiv – from the north and from north-east. This helped the Russian forces to stabilise their hold on north-western outskirts of Kyiv. Roughly clockwise: they’ve reinforced VDV troops that captured the Antonov/Hostomel/Gostomel IAP (in the course of the second heliborne assault, on 25 Feb), and deployed the Chechens to secure the base of the 4th Rapid Intervention Brigade of the National Guard, nearby. Further east, they’ve reinforced Spetsnaz troops that penetrated northern outskirts of the capitol. That said, mechanised units – equipped with tanks etc – are yet to be seen there, and, generally: all the Russians have right now is a narrow corridor down the western bank of Dnepr River. It’s rather so that the Ukrainians can’t deploy their operational reserve to hit them in the flank (from the west, for example) – not only because the Russians now hold Antonov/Hostomel/Gostomel, but because of the Russian supremacy in the air, and far superior artillery, but because the Ukrainians seem not to have forces left to run such an operation.

The second prong of the Russian drive into Kyiv, the one from north-east.,..that’s unclear. Some say it was smashed by the defenders, and the assailants – partially including Chechens - forced to withdraw out of the city (there are quite a few rather grim videos showing the destroyed trucks and plenty of bodies left behind). Others say the Russians are holding a narrow corridor down one of highways.

Further West, Ukrainians reported yesterday in the morning a Russian heliborne landing north of Lvov. Mi-24 helicopters of the Ukrainian air force were seen in action in that area, too, but then no further reports followed.

Eventually, it was only this morning that the Russian airborne landing 'somewhere between southern Kyiv and Bila Cerkva', from yesterday morning, was confirmed: the Russians are in the process of assaulting the Vasilkovo Airport in the northern outskirts of Fedosiya. This is where a fuel depot was blown up, early today (explosion was visible all the way to Kyiv, 40km further north).

EAST

The Keystone Cops in Moscow didn’t say how many troops they have deployed in this sector, but from the troops captured by the Ukrainians yesterday (and that was over 200), it seems they’ve got elements from the 1 Guards Tanks Army, 20th Combined Arms Army, and the 41st Combined Arms Army already in action (for example: elements of the 2nd Tank Division, 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division – yes the famous ‘Tamanskaya Division’, usually guarding Moscow and performing on Red Square parades in May -, 138th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 35th Motor Rifle Brigade etc.).

Ukrainian sources are indicating the Russian 35th Combined Arms Army is kept in reserve. Thus, my assessment for deployment of about 30,000 troops should still be OK.

This morning, the Russians have breached the defences of Kharkiv and drove a column all the way into the centre of the city. This was confirmed by local civilian authorities and several videos (some showing burning Russian IFVs). Fighting is going on.

That said, the mass of Russian forces deployed in north-eastern Ukraine spent the day yesterday bypassing Chernihiv and Kharkiv. Although severely delayed - by Ukrainian ambushes, because the columns are repeatedly losing their way, but also due to lack of fuel and supplies - they have entered Volokhov Yar, about 70km southeast of Kharkiv, yesterday late in the morning. Gauging by their average rate of advance, it might take them another two days to reach Kyiv from this side, but it is equally possible they’re going to be re-routed in direction of Zaporozhye instead (should any of Keystone Cops in Moscow come to the idea to engage the 35th Combined Arms Army).

Further east, i.e. in Donbas…. the Ukrainian units along the Line of Contact (LOC) are still holding out, but this appears to be rapidly becoming irrelevant. The Russians are in the process of breaching through in the Luhansk area (there is always a limit of how long can any unit hold out against sustained air strikes, artillery barrages and ground attacks), and are definitely driving into Ukraine from the north-east. Probable objective: Zaporozhye. Should they manage that, they would cut off the best units of the Ukrainian army in the east.

SOUTH

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have at least 12,000 troops deployed in this area, and they seem to be in the process of adding another 5,000 to that number.

If I’m to ask, this is meanwhile the very epicentre of this phase of the war. Here, the Russian commander was having something like a ‘field day’, yesterday. After securing Melitopol, late on 25 February, his forces rapidly fanned out and made a good advance in northern direction to reach Bilozerka and Tokmak, only 80km south of Zaporozhye, and in eastern direction, to capture Berdyansk, 70km west of Mariupol. This morning, they have reached the outskirts of Zaprozhye (see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCCzkcpkta0).

With this it's clear that the Ukrainian forces east of the Dnepr River are de-facto cut off from the rest of the country. Now it's a matter of days before they run out of fuel, and then ammo.

In theory, the only worry of the local Russian commander would be the Kherson area. The Ukrainians not only recovered the town as of early in the morning yesterday, but recovered Nova Karkhovka too. Thus, they cut off a Russian unit advancing west of Dnepr - in directio of Mikolayiv. The same was subjected to air strikes by Su-25s and TB.2s (see: https://twitter.com/Ukraine_AF/status/1497853318458232837), too, but one of Su-25s was shot down this morning, and its pilot killed (see attached photo).

US reports about a massive amphibious landing west of Mariupol were entirely wrong. It seems the Russian Marines are actually leading the advance from Crimea on Zaporozhye.

CONCLUSION

All the media attention at Kyiv is misleading. The Russians are taking time with mopping up and securing their corridor into the northern parts of the city there, and it might take days for them to resume an all-out attack.

The biggest issue right now is if the Ukrainians have sufficient forces to stop the Russian advances on Zaporozhye – and that from three directions at the same time (north-east, east, and south). If not, the best elements of the Ukrainian Army are going to find themselves surrounded and cut off from the rest of the country, east of the Dnepr River, especially in Kharkiv and the Mariupol areas.

And it’s definitely sure now: Putin is going for all of Ukraine. It’s only his armed forces that proved unable to effect that – at least not at the desired speed.

This is going to be no quick walk in the park, but a long and bitter war.

[M_B]

 

[YorkshireRed]

1 hour ago, Bjornebye said:

State of this. Also too thick to realise that other countries do take refugees/migrants not just Britain. I fucking hate these kinds of people 

I read this and my heart sinks. Not because of these specific comments particularly, more as I know these selfish, uneducated, unkind, insular views are held by so many more than just those fucktards that read the Daily Mail. 

[YorkshireRed]

The No.1 Covid denier on my FB has found something else to dismiss the existence of. 

[Pureblood]

4 minutes ago, YorkshireRed said:

The No.1 Covid denier on my FB has found something else to dismiss the existence of. 

Prolific use of exclamation marks. Instant cunt identifier. 

[Numero Veinticinco]

If this is anywhere near accurate...

[Boss]

I wouldn't pay any attention to the figures from either side. As the saying goes: "the first casualty of war is truth".

[Numero Veinticinco]

I think you should pay some attention to them, but not blindly believe all estimates. Considering the amount of video coming out, it's not hard to believe that the Russians are taking losses that they will be embarrassed about. 

[Preston Red]

We heard a belter on Friday at work that the Russians have incinerator units in wagons to get rid of dead Russian soldiers and ergo, falsify casualty numbers.

 

If true: Wow!

 

If bollocks (highly suspected): Great source of amusement.

[Anubis]

29 minutes ago, YorkshireRed said:

I read this and my heart sinks. Not because of these specific comments particularly, more as I know these selfish, uneducated, unkind, insular views are held by so many more than just those fucktards that read the Daily Mail. 

Sadly true.

[Rico1304]

3 minutes ago, Preston Red said:

We heard a belter on Friday at work that the Russians have incinerator units in wagons to get rid of dead Russian soldiers and ergo, falsify casualty numbers.

 

If true: Wow!

 

If bollocks (highly suspected): Great source of amusement.

I think the idea is that they can make captured targets disappear - literately in a cloud of smoke and claim not to have them.  

[J-V]

6 minutes ago, Preston Red said:

We heard a belter on Friday at work that the Russians have incinerator units in wagons to get rid of dead Russian soldiers and ergo, falsify casualty numbers.

 

If true: Wow!

 

If bollocks (highly suspected): Great source of amusement.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/23/russia-deploys-mobile-crematorium-follow-troops-battle/

[Preston Red]

1 minute ago, J-V said:

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/23/russia-deploys-mobile-crematorium-follow-troops-battle/

Wow!!!

[Anubis]

Snopes have this as unproven and the video and picture above being circulated come from a waste management company website way back in the early teens.

 

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/russia-mobile-crematoriums/

 

Quote

We found the video with the exact same footage posted on YouTube in 2015, which provides the contact information of Tourmaline, a St. Petersburg company allegedly behind such machines.

 

Quote

We went to the company website, and clicked on a link (see screenshot below) to their videos showing machinery “for biological waste (cremators, including mobile ones)” (translated from Russian by Google Translate). The original video appears to be from August 2013, and shows the operating process of their incinerator for biological waste. 

 

[SasaS]

8 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

I think you should pay some attention to them, but not blindly believe all estimates. Considering the amount of video coming out, it's not hard to believe that the Russians are taking losses that they will be embarrassed about. 

These figures tend to count all damaged or broken down equipment as losses. Soldiers killed sounds completely preposterous, wounded are usually from killed times two to killed times six or more (depending on type of combat and other factors). If you settle on times three, that would mean 4,300 killed and 13,000 wounded. No army taking that kind of casualties would be advancing on almost all fronts. They have deployed less than 100,000 troops so far.