Coronavirus

[Barrington Womble]

20 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

I went in my local for the charity shield game and apart from one part of the pub that has 3 tables, the rest of the pub were very fucking far from socially distancing. Apart from not drinking at the bar it was business as usual. Hugging each other, shouting etc. This second spike is as much down to peoples ignorance as it is the tories telling everyone to get out and do the fucking fandango. 

I don't disagree with that. It deffo seems though lots of people thought it was over. Hopefully this week is a wake up call and it's early enough. 

[Mudface]

You never said anything about deaths.

 

On 10/08/2020 at 22:44, Stront19m Dog™ said:

 

Yep, it is indeed fucking embarrassing how the lot of you continue to fail to explain why the dozens of facts posted aren't in fact facts.

 

When this thing is over and done in this country by winter, and there's no second wave, how many of you will be big enough to apologise?

 

On 10/08/2020 at 23:08, Stront19m Dog™ said:

 

If there's a second wave, then I will certainly concede I got it wrong.

 

On 10/08/2020 at 23:10, Fluter in Dakota said:

OK you've got yourself a deal. When is the deadline for the lack of/presence of second wave?

 

On 10/08/2020 at 23:13, Stront19m Dog™ said:

 

12 months from now long enough?

 

On 10/08/2020 at 23:19, Fluter in Dakota said:

True... @Stront19m Dog™? I don't want to think about numbers, just what exactly is a second wave?

 

On 10/08/2020 at 23:36, Stront19m Dog™ said:

 

I find this definition useful.

 

https://theconversation.com/the-us-isnt-in-a-second-wave-of-coronavirus-the-first-wave-never-ended-141032

 

 

28 minutes ago, Stront19m Dog™ said:

 

Of deaths.

The 'useful definition' you quoted-

 

A wave of an infection describes a large rise and fall in the number of cases. There isn’t a precise epidemiological definition of when a wave begins or ends.

But with talk of a second wave in the news, as an epidemiologist and public health researcher, I think there are two necessary factors that must be met before we can colloquially declare a second wave.

First, the virus would have to be controlled and transmission brought down to a very low level. That would be the end of the first wave. Then, the virus would need to reappear and result in a large increase in cases and hospitalizations.

 

The first part has already happened. We'll have to hope the second doesn't, although judging by the trajectory in France, it's only a matter of time.

 

For what it's worth- and I've posted this several times- I don't think this is a second wave, at least not in the sense of the Spanish 'flu's second wave- it's due to not suppressing the first wave sufficiently. 

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

Mudface be all like... 

[Strontium]

7 minutes ago, Mudface said:

You never said anything about deaths.

 

Splitting hairs there I think. We talked about large numbers of hospitalisations, and if there are large numbers of hospitalisations, it stands to reason there will be large numbers of deaths. Either way, we're nowhere near it yet.

[Bjornebye]

Mudface in his bathroom mirror right now

 

 

 

[TheHowieLama]

3 minutes ago, Stront19m Dog™ said:

 

Splitting hairs there I think.

Say the guy who uses numbers for flu deaths that "mention either flu or pneumonia."

 

Where are we on accounting for the extra 10,000 Covid deaths reported by the ONS?

[Gnasher]

1 hour ago, Stront19m Dog™ said:

 

Of deaths.

Deaths were approaching 1000 a day around late march/april. Deaths per day now is approx 6.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/11/coronavirus-uk-map-confirmed-covid-cases-and-deaths-today

 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

It doesn’t matter how many people get seriously ill or how many die - what really matters is who wins a (trademarked) TLW Bickerfest.

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, AngryofTuebrook said:

It doesn’t matter how many people get seriously ill or how many die - what really matters is who wins a (trademarked) TLW Bickerfest.

Don't hate the players, hate the game.

[Bjornebye]

32 minutes ago, AngryofTuebrook said:

It doesn’t matter how many people get seriously ill or how many die - what really matters is who wins a (trademarked) TLW Bickerfest.

I fail to see the problem here. 

[Gnasher]

1 hour ago, Mudface said:

You never said anything about deaths.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The 'useful definition' you quoted-

 

 

 

 

The first part has already happened. We'll have to hope the second doesn't, although judging by the trajectory in France, it's only a matter of time.

 

For what it's worth- and I've posted this several times- I don't think this is a second wave, at least not in the sense of the Spanish 'flu's second wave- it's due to not suppressing the first wave sufficiently. 

Load of hysterical overkill. The main figures are how many people is Covid actually killing? The answer at the moment is not very many, approx 6 a day.

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths

[Gnasher]

The cynic in me wonders if the government are whipping up hysteria to make a nice little earner for themselves, Christmas not far off and the Boris sprogs have expensive tastes.

[Gnasher]

https://thecritic.co.uk/counting-the-dead/

[Sugar Ape]

Interesting thread to click on. 
 

 

[Mudface]

15 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

Interesting thread to click on. 
 

 

It's really stark, isn't it? I know New York was hit as hard as anywhere in the initial stages when we didn't have too much of a handle on things, but time and again we see that locking down early and hard, getting the disease as low as you can and then having a robust track and trace system in place while you open back up cautiously is the long term strategy. Simply because anything else might give a short term boost, but it'll be short lived and you'll soon lose control again.

[Bruce Spanner]

33 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

https://thecritic.co.uk/counting-the-dead/

 

Where to start with this?

 

The Critic is a conservative/right leaning magazine, did you know this when you posted it?

 

It contains an outright lie in the first 100 words, did you notice it?

 

Toby Young contributes, did you read his articles?

 

They have some very 'contentious' views on race relations, do you agree with these?

 

This is no more than a 'Libetarian' mouthpiece sponsored by rich Tories trying to sway opinion.

 

I'm sure there's more, but I'm not wasting more than a google search.

[Gnasher]

8 minutes ago, Bruce Spanner said:

 

Where to start with this?

 

The Critic is a conservative/right leaning magazine, did you know this when you posted it?

 

It contains an outright lie in the first 100 words, did you notice it?

 

Toby Young contributes, did you read his articles?

 

This is no more than a 'Libetarian' mouthpiece sponsored by rich Tories trying to sway opinion.

 

I'm sure there's more, but I'm not wasting more than a google search.

Not the point,  I'm just trying to balance the debate .The hysteria over this so called second wave seems well over played. 

 

Obviously if the the death rate rises then action should be taken but as we have opened schools, pubs, work etc a spike in young people contracting the virus is predictable, thankfully the virus does not seem to do serious harm to that group of people. 

 

The graphs from the link above show the current death rate to approx 6 a day compared to approx 1000 a day in late march/april. Plus it seems the virus may be losing strength. 

 

Thousands upon thousands are about to lose their livelihoods over these restrictions, we cant hide under the blankets for much longer.

[Jairzinho]

Does 95% of New York go to other parts of the country every July and August? I don't really know, but I'm assuming not. It's 783 degrees at that time in Madrid.

 

Anyway, the government wanted the summer holiday cash, then got stiffed by Britain, Germany and eventually loads of others being prevented from coming anyway. Everyone in Madrid fucked off to chiringuitos then all came back at the same time.

 

Quote

Indoor dining in Madrid was OPEN at 60% capacity in June. Bar service opened too. Protocols weren't aggressively enforced. Since June it has been easy to find crowded bars and tables. The contrast with NY was striking as anyone spending time in both places can tell you.

Undoubtedly true, but this stuff is cultural as well. Spain has the absolute worst culture for dealing with this, certainly Madrid and further south (and it's less of a problem in the South than in Madrid as it's so sparsely populated). People always want to be outdoors, always in groups, always very close to each other. Fuck load easier convincing South Koreans or Germans not to have botellons or not to finger each other every time they have a conversation.

 

I still can't believe any indoor bars or, worse still, nightclubs were re-opened. Surely even financially long term it won't have made sense. Even in a country like Spain where this sector makes up such a substantial part of the economy. They could miss out on this business next Spring if we still don't have a vaccine. And what of the schools? How many kids are going to miss an entire fucking year of proper teaching?

 

 

I'm still not really sure what qualifies as a "second wave". Basically we had a lockdown, got the numbers under control, then just reopened everything again at a time when schools were just about to restart. It was a self-inflicted second wave. The first stages actually went quite well. People could go out and exercise at set times to protect the elderly (they had their "window"). Very limited seating for outdoor bars was available. Numbers remained low. Then they just thought "fuck it", get Magaluf open again and all the nightclubs in Barcelona. Oh and reopen the schools in Madrid a few days after half the city's population has come back from their holidays in Alicante, Valencia, Cadiz, etc, etc.

 

 

Another thing, in the UK is there a visible presence of the police enforcing restrictions? There was here for Phase 0, and a bit of Phase 1, after that you couldn't find one of the cunts for love nor money.

 

[Bruce Spanner]

9 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Not the point,  I'm just trying to balance the debate .The hysteria over this so called second wave seems well over played. 

 

Obviously if the the death rate rises then action should be taken but as we have opened schools, pubs, work etc a spike in young people contracting the virus is predictable, thankfully the virus does not seem to do serious harm to that group of people. 

 

The graphs from the link above show the current death rate to approx 6 a day compared to approx 1000 a day in late march/april. Plus it seems the virus may be losing strength. 

 

Thousands upon thousands are about to lose their livelihoods over these restrictions, we cant hide under the blankets for much longer.

 

Six people a day were losing their lives at the start of the pandemic, that's why people are concerned as this is matching, almost, the original patterns, that's why 'they're' calling it a second wave.

 

Aren't you bleating about balance on the BBC thread, but posting the views of eugenicists here? That's some bold hypocricy.

 

Anyhow's, answer the fucking questions!

[Gnasher]

49 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

Interesting thread to click on. 
 

 

New York has maybe had herd immunity?

[Mudface]

2 minutes ago, Jairzinho said:

Does 95% of New York go to other parts of the country every July and August? I don't really know, but I'm assuming not. It's 783 degrees at that time in Madrid.

 

Anyway, the government wanted the summer holiday cash, then got stiffed by Britain, Germany and eventually loads of others being prevented from coming anyway. Everyone in Madrid fucked off to chiringuitos then all came back at the same time.

 

Undoubtedly true, but this stuff is cultural as well. Spain has the absolute worst culture for dealing with this, certainly Madrid and further south (and it's less of a problem in the South than in Madrid as it's so sparsely populated). People always want to be outdoors, always in groups, always very close to each other.

 

I still can't believe any indoor bars or, worse still, nightclubs were re-opened. Surely even financially long term it won't have made sense. Even in a country like Spain where this sector makes up such a substantial part of the economy. They could miss out on this business next Spring if we still don't have a vaccine. And what of the schools? How many kids are going to miss an entire fucking year of proper teaching?

 

 

I'm still not really sure what qualifies as a "second wave". Basically we had a lockdown, got the numbers under control, then just reopened everything again at a time when schools were just about to restart. It was a self-inflicted second wave. The first stages actually went quite well. People could go out and exercise at set times to protect the elderly (they had their "window"). Very limited seating for outdoor bars was available. Numbers remained low. Then they just thought "fuck it", get Magaluf open again and all the nightclubs in Barcelona. Oh and reopen the schools in Madrid a few days after half the city's population has come back from their holidays in Alicante, Valencia, Cadiz, etc, etc.

 

 

Another thing, in the UK is there a visible presence of the police enforcing restrictions? There was here for Phase 0, and a bit of Phase 1, after that you couldn't find one of the cunts for love nor money.

 

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-08-10/how-spains-face-mask-rules-are-being-broken.html

 

This was a really damning report from last month and completely chimes with what you've just posted.

[Gnasher]

2 minutes ago, Bruce Spanner said:

 

Six people a day were losing their lives at the start of the pandemic, that's why people are concerned as this is matching, almost, the original patterns, tha's why 'they're' calling it a second wave.

 

Aren't you bleating about balance on the BBC thread, but posting the views of eugenicists here? That's some bold hypocricy.

I agree we've got to be careful but as the death rate is low the hysteria might have an adverse effect. Ie people with depression and other issues are being hit hard, plus the economic factors, I know it sounds heartless to talk about the hit on the economy but if public services get hammered we could be making massive problems further down the road. 

[TheHowieLama]

5 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

New York has maybe had herd immunity?

I doubt 6 million plus people have had it tbh.

[Bjornebye]

1 minute ago, Gnasher said:

I agree we've got to be careful but as the death rate is low the hysteria might have an adverse effect. Ie people with depression and other issues are being hit hard, plus the economic factors, I know it sounds heartless to talk about the hit on the economy but if public services get hammered we could be making massive problems further down the road. 

The positive cases have shot up so the death rate will increase later down the line off the back of it. 

[Bruce Spanner]

5 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

I agree we've got to be careful but as the death rate is low the hysteria might have an adverse effect. Ie people with depression and other issues are being hit hard, plus the economic factors, I know it sounds heartless to talk about the hit on the economy but if public services get hammered we could be making massive problems further down the road. 

 

The hysteria is because of how badly this has been fucked up, we don't want that again, ever, yet here we are with a pathetic excuse of governing body.

 

Yeah, the massive problem not so far down the road of Brexit, that's really going to heap pressure on an already perilous state.

 

Thank god we have the Brexit focused sociopaths in charge who are, and always have, prioritised the economy over human life or we'd be really fucked.