Russia v Ukraine

[TheHowieLama]

21 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

I only have some general knowledge of what's going on in Donbas when it comes to where the fighting is and that's about as far as it goes.

Tom posts every day man - put some work in.

[SasaS]

22 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

I think we all know how badly things could escalate at the worst between Russia and the West, that's why it's so dangerous. I don't know how much things would turn with the right equipment too. They could really wear Russia down but Russia also has a population over three times the size and Ukraine will already be well aware of that.

 

Zelensky is off to a NATO meeting soon as well so maybe he'll get some of the weapons he wants there. I really don't know the details of what weapons he needs though and how much it'd actually affect anything. I only have some general knowledge of what's going on in Donbas when it comes to where the fighting is and that's about as far as it goes.

 

I must say, don't quite follow that logic, that the most dangerous thing is if Russians start losing the war they started by invading their neighbour. Without the proper equipment, Ukraine would either be at the mercy of Russia, or the war would drag on for years, because their army could neither win nor lose, with horrible casualties.

 

To use its entire population for this war, Russia would first have to declare it and going from covert mobilization of underclasses in Buryatia to calling up tens of thousands of Moscovites to fight in Ukraine for something they, when they switch off the TV, deep down know is total bullshit would politically be a whole new ballgame.

[Numero Veinticinco]

Time for NATO to big ball this, go in, drive the Russians out, take over Russia, and put Trump in as their leader. 

[Red Phoenix]

1 hour ago, TheHowieLama said:

Tom posts every day man - put some work in.

 

I think Tom is often a bit behind on Donbas or a little out. He posts a daily update then hours later things can change, not his fault.

 

And I'm only interested in Donbas because that's where I think Russia will decide to stop this. They'll either take it or fail to and give in (if Ukraine wear them down), right now it's not really clear what the outcome will be.

 

1 hour ago, SasaS said:

 

I must say, don't quite follow that logic, that the most dangerous thing is if Russians start losing the war they started by invading their neighbour. Without the proper equipment, Ukraine would either be at the mercy of Russia, or the war would drag on for years, because their army could neither win nor lose, with horrible casualties.

 

To use its entire population for this war, Russia would first have to declare it and going from covert mobilization of underclasses in Buryatia to calling up tens of thousands of Moscovites to fight in Ukraine for something they, when they switch off the TV, deep down know is total bullshit would politically be a whole new ballgame.

 

We don't agree with each other because we disagree on how the entire thing should go on, how it started, the causes of it, etc.

 

That's why I basically give in arguing. If that means I've lost the argument or whatever, fine. I think the change in the media tone could be a sign of how things might be changing with gov responses over time as well, that's all. Or maybe not, it's not like the US has shown any signs of change so far in their support and I'm sure the $40 billion in aid still has a way to go yet.

[SasaS]

11 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

I think Tom is often a bit behind on Donbas or a little out. He posts a daily update then hours later things can change, not his fault.

 

And I'm only interested in Donbas because that's where I think Russia will decide to stop this. They'll either take it or fail to and give in (if Ukraine wear them down), right now it's not really clear what the outcome will be.

 

 

We don't agree with each other because we disagree on how the entire thing should go on, how it started, the causes of it, etc.

 

That's why I basically give in arguing. If that means I've lost the argument or whatever, fine. I think the change in the media tone could be a sign of how things might be changing with gov responses over time as well, that's all. Or maybe not, it's not like the US has shown any signs of change so far in their support and I'm sure the $40 billion in aid still has a way to go yet.

 

Well, my problem is that I don't understand the inherent logic in your thinking. That is, if you don't think Ukraine should give Donbas to Russia, and that is what it is all about.

If you do think that, I get it, it makes sense, don't arm Ukrainians, it is better for them to be pummeled into submission by Russian artillery for a while until they realize it is pointless, to many deaths, they cannot win and they must accept Donbas will be Russia. Then there will be peace, because this is all Russia wants. In that case, Nato is truly in the way of peace and only unnecessarily escalates the situation.  This I think is about how Germany and some other countries now view it.

[Red Phoenix]

54 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Well, my problem is that I don't understand the inherent logic in your thinking. That is, if you don't think Ukraine should give Donbas to Russia, and that is what it is all about.

If you do think that, I get it, it makes sense, don't arm Ukrainians, it is better for them to be pummeled into submission by Russian artillery for a while until they realize it is pointless, to many deaths, they cannot win and they must accept Donbas will be Russia. Then there will be peace, because this is all Russia wants. In that case, Nato is truly in the way of peace and only unnecessarily escalates the situation.  This I think is about how Germany and some other countries now view it.

 

It's weekend, I propose a ceasefire in the thread.

 

Or we can escalate. Every reply I get I drink one Baileys, then my responses get crazier and crazier. Actually it'd be good if I even had enough Baileys to try that but I don't.

 

I think Ukraine could get pummeled until they give up but I don't want that to happen. I don't like war and every day I'm pissed off thinking about people dying on the battlefield. It'd also make me a tankie having that view. This thing as we both know from checking each day, is kind of stalled at the moment and it's not like there's huge advances by Russia. So nope, I don't want to see Ukraine pummeled until they give in because they could defend well enough so that something better happens for them. I just kind of check it several times a day feeling shitty about it and will be glad when something is resolved. And I don't know how it'll be resolved.

[Clem H Fandango]

4 hours ago, SasaS said:

 

Well, my problem is that I don't understand the inherent logic in your thinking. That is, if you don't think Ukraine should give Donbas to Russia, and that is what it is all about.

If you do think that, I get it, it makes sense, don't arm Ukrainians, it is better for them to be pummeled into submission by Russian artillery for a while until they realize it is pointless, to many deaths, they cannot win and they must accept Donbas will be Russia. Then there will be peace, because this is all Russia wants. In that case, Nato is truly in the way of peace and only unnecessarily escalates the situation.  This I think is about how Germany and some other countries now view it.

If Russia only wants the Donbas, what was their reason for attacking kyiv? I recall the ruskies saying total annihilation of Ukraine.

[SasaS]

6 hours ago, Clem H Fandango said:

If Russia only wants the Donbas, what was their reason for attacking kyiv? I recall the ruskies saying total annihilation of Ukraine.

It was apparently a diversion to fix the best Ukrainian troops their, while they surround and annihilate Ukrainian army along the line of contact in Donbas (which they still didn't manage to do). Also, objectives change.

 

On artillery shells, I Google-translate read and interview with some Azerbaijani analyst saying that even Russians might have troubles with ammunition some time in the future because they are not manufacturing enough of 152mm shells. He puts it at some time in August or September. Tom Copper also reported previously the rumours they have empted out most depots in western Russia.

 

Speaking of Tom Cooper, the latest update, which is for some reason, optimistic. Must be the weekend.

 

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-8-9-10-june-2022-6e25db6f8d6c

[Clem H Fandango]

27 minutes ago, SasaS said:

It was apparently a diversion to fix the best Ukrainian troops their, while they surround and annihilate Ukrainian army along the line of contact in Donbas (which they still didn't manage to do). Also, objectives change.

 

If donbas residents are truly saying (putins words) that they prefer to be under Russian rule, then why not sell up and fuck off over the border.

I just don't get these made up excuses for the invasion when really it's all about land and resources.

[Captain Turdseye]

I had a fucked up dream last night that American warships were entering the Black Sea and nuclear war was looking almost certain. 
 

I swear that’s the last time I watch Pilger in bed. 

[SasaS]

28 minutes ago, Clem H Fandango said:

If donbas residents are truly saying (putins words) that they prefer to be under Russian rule, then why not sell up and fuck off over the border.

I just don't get these made up excuses for the invasion when really it's all about land and resources.

I saw an Ukrainian soldier quoted as saying, I think it was about Severodonetsk, that about 30% are for Russia, 30% for Ukraine and the rest don't care. I would say that may be true for Mariupol too and roughly across the pre-February unoccupied Donbas. This is a constant problem for the Ukrainian side which does not get enough analysis in the west. Overall, it is millions of people, and I'd say it is a slightly more complex issue, there are also limits to what exactly being pro-Russia may mean (or pro-Ukraine for that matter). Becasue they did live in the independent Ukraine for over 30 years.

[Clem H Fandango]

Could've all been avoided if the pro ruskies were shipped over the border.

But of course, that is just an excuse for the real agenda.

[Red Phoenix]

I saw a map on Guardian updates of Severodonetsk (or what the Guardian calls "Sivierodonetsk." Honestly, the fucking spellings of places in this war.) and it says in one place with an arrow underneath it "Road to Bakhmut - Last remaining access and evacuation route for the Ukrainians." So I was like, well that's fucking wrong. The place has been heavily contested for days. Checking recent comments for that road on twitter though still has several saying that it's actually being used, even if it is under fire at times in places.

 

Of all the things I've read about so far in this war that road/highway has to be one of the most weird and amazing things, considering what could happen if it was lost and Russians then carried on moving across to cut that entire area off. Maybe Russian forces and command just haven't focused on it enough or have made a string of stupid decisions, but I get the feeling that if Ukraine had the types of troops defending that area all over Donbas and they were armed well enough Russians would have serious problems in way more places than they do now.

[SasaS]

37 minutes ago, Clem H Fandango said:

Could've all been avoided if the pro ruskies were shipped over the border.

But of course, that is just an excuse for the real agenda.

Well, Russia is actively working on it, except they think it is easier to "ship" the border.

 

33 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

I saw a map on Guardian updates of Severodonetsk (or what the Guardian calls "Sivierodonetsk." Honestly, the fucking spellings of places in this war.) and it says in one place with an arrow underneath it "Road to Bakhmut - Last remaining access and evacuation route for the Ukrainians." So I was like, well that's fucking wrong. The place has been heavily contested for days. Checking recent comments for that road on twitter though still has several saying that it's actually being used, even if it is under fire at times in places.

 

Of all the things I've read about so far in this war that road/highway has to be one of the most weird and amazing things, considering what could happen if it was lost and Russians then carried on moving across to cut that entire area off. Maybe Russian forces and command just haven't focused on it enough or have made a string of stupid decisions, but I get the feeling that if Ukraine had the types of troops defending that area all over Donbas and they were armed well enough Russians would have serious problems in way more places than they do now.

There is apparently another road they can use, also, they said the bridge between Severodonetsk and Lysichansk has been destroyed, but Ukrainians still seem to be able to go back and forth so, who knows what is actually happening. When they say the road, I think this means the entire frontline linking settlements along the road is defended.  

[Red Phoenix]

24 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Well, Russia is actively working on it, except they think it is easier to "ship" the border.

 

There is apparently another road they can use, also, they said the bridge between Severodonetsk and Lysichansk has been destroyed, but Ukrainians still seem to be able to go back and forth so, who knows what is actually happening. When they say the road, I think this means the entire frontline linking settlements along the road is defended.  

 

Yeah it looks like the area is easily big enough for them to be using several routes. I'm not sure how often that road is being used either, the other day I saw a comment about how it wasn't lost to Russians but still too dangerous to use, then recently saw some saying it's actually in use too. Good defending to still even have it contested though.

[Red Phoenix]

I think it'll start to dawn on people soon how fucking stupid this all really is. It just hits me sometimes how fucked we've actually become that most of us can be fine with the idea of shoving tons of weapons into a country, partly to enrich psychopaths, to carry on a war that the US and UK haven't made a single attempt to try and stop.

 

I honestly couldn't give a fuck who controls what here at the moment. Maybe just try stopping the war if possible and all of the terrorised troops and civilians being injured and killed can stop for at least a while as the clowns in power try and work something out.

 

This idea that Putin can't be seen to have gained anything is fucking insane as well. Maybe if he does actually get something he wants through negotiations he'll be less likely to turn into the Hitler so many think he's going to be. Of course Ukraine need to get something too. Ever considered the fact that maybe Ukraine and Russia could both get something through negotiations? That's how negotiations work. That's why people negotiate.

 

The main point is this : if there's a ceasefire and talks, which Zelensky, Johnson and Biden should really be pursuing if they're bothered about Human lives, people will stop getting injured and killed. And no amount of propaganda or war frenzy or accusations of being in league with Hitler or issuing Kremlin talking points or mental gymnastics can cut through that fact.

 

If there's a ceasefire people stop getting injured and killed. That's it. That's the tweet.

 

War is bad, it's fucking stupid and we should be making every attempt possible to stop it. Fuck the propaganda.

[SasaS]

And we are back to square one.

[Rico1304]

34 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

I think it'll start to dawn on people soon how fucking stupid this all really is. It just hits me sometimes how fucked we've actually become that most of us can be fine with the idea of shoving tons of weapons into a country, partly to enrich psychopaths, to carry on a war that the US and UK haven't made a single attempt to try and stop.

 

I honestly couldn't give a fuck who controls what here at the moment. Maybe just try stopping the war if possible and all of the terrorised troops and civilians being injured and killed can stop for at least a while as the clowns in power try and work something out.

 

This idea that Putin can't be seen to have gained anything is fucking insane as well. Maybe if he does actually get something he wants through negotiations he'll be less likely to turn into the Hitler so many think he's going to be. Of course Ukraine need to get something too. Ever considered the fact that maybe Ukraine and Russia could both get something through negotiations? That's how negotiations work. That's why people negotiate.

 

The main point is this : if there's a ceasefire and talks, which Zelensky, Johnson and Biden should really be pursuing if they're bothered about Human lives, people will stop getting injured and killed. And no amount of propaganda or war frenzy or accusations of being in league with Hitler or issuing Kremlin talking points or mental gymnastics can cut through that fact.

 

If there's a ceasefire people stop getting injured and killed. That's it. That's the tweet.

 

War is bad, it's fucking stupid and we should be making every attempt possible to stop it. Fuck the propaganda.

The fact you don’t care who controls what is somewhat, well, immaterial.  But it’s exactly the attitude that Putin is hoping for, well done. 

[Red Phoenix]

7 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

The fact you don’t care who controls what is somewhat, well, immaterial.  But it’s exactly the attitude that Putin is hoping for, well done. 

 

 

[Red Phoenix]

All I was doing was trying to clear my head a bit and remember where I am with this after spending the last week or so checking on war. I have no interest in going on a ten page crusade arguing with half the forum.

 

I saw this a bit ago, wondering what's going on here. There's still no confirmation that Russians have actually crossed the river where I was on about a while back I don't think so I'm not sure where exactly this is supposed to be :

 

 

edit - could be this which could mean that they've got through the forest nearby :

 

 

[SasaS]

This is apparently in the region of Tatianovka which is across the river from recently captured Sviatohirsk, and this would be to the west of Tatianovka. Russians claim they have crossed and they have a bridgehead there, which they are either expanding or they are crossing somewhere else. Ukrainian paras may be trying to push them back again. It is not directly at Slavyansk, but it is dangerous.  

[Red Phoenix]

6 minutes ago, SasaS said:

This is apparently in the region of Tatianovka which is across the river from recently captured Sviatohirsk, and this would be to the west of Tatianovka. Russians claim they have crossed and they have a bridgehead there, which they are either expanding or they are crossing somewhere else. Ukrainian paras may be trying to push them back again. It is not directly at Slavyansk, but it is dangerous.  

 

The stuff about Russians crossing was what I was seeing too for days, and it was supposed to be right where Tatianovka is or just slightly to the east at the highest point of the river in that area. It might have all been bullshit though after all. Or they crossed, Ukrainians beat them back and never mentioned it (which seems more doubtful). Either way them being further west near that forest is better for those at Slovyansk agreed.

[Numero Veinticinco]

2 hours ago, Red Phoenix said:

I think it'll start to dawn on people soon how fucking stupid this all really is.

Do you somehow think this a unique or enlightened perspective on this that others aren’t seeing? Don’t you think others, even those of us who find your position quite repugnant, can also see how stupid this war is? It is a war being waged by Russia. It wasn’t something people went into willingly, except the invaders that is. We could see it was stupid from the first fucking day. 

2 hours ago, Red Phoenix said:

It just hits me sometimes how fucked we've actually become that most of us can be fine with the idea of shoving tons of weapons into a country, partly to enrich psychopaths, to carry on a war that the US and UK haven't made a single attempt to try and stop.

The reason they weapons are being pushed into the Ukraine is because Ukraine need weapons to fight off a foreign invader, who is trying to capture their country. Now, thankfully, they’ve been pushed back far enough that it doesn’t look liked they’ll wipe Ukraine of the map completely. Weapons have helped that. You are against that and would see Russia capture the entirety of the nation. The Ukrainians have a different view. You see, it’s not enough to say you’re against war, against foreign invasion, occupation, and the annexation of parts of peoples country or theft of a country as a whole, because that’s absolutely guff unless you support those being attacked and give them the ability to save themselves. 

2 hours ago, Red Phoenix said:

Maybe just try stopping the war if possible

Is this for real? Maybe just try stopping the war. If. Possible. Like, what are you on? Hey, guys, just stop, OK? Have you tried not doing a war? Maybe you’re secretly a negotiator, because surely ‘just try stopping the war’ is a sure fire tactic. That genuinely has to be one of the most simplistic, naive things I’ve ever read on here.

 

Fucking hell, RP. We all want the war to stop, other than the invaders. But there are invaders invading. Just try stopping the war. If Russia just tries stopping the war, there’ll be no war. But they don’t want to, because, like Hitler before him, Putin wants to conquer a neighbouring country. 
 

2 hours ago, Red Phoenix said:

This idea that Putin can't be seen to have gained anything is fucking insane as well. Maybe if he does actually get something he wants through negotiations he'll be less likely to turn into the Hitler so many think he's going to be. Of course Ukraine need to get something too. Ever considered the fact that maybe Ukraine and Russia could both get something through negotiations? That's how negotiations work. That's why people negotiate.

Why are you so keen to reward violence, why are you so keen to reward illegal invasion, how can you sit there and carve up other people’s land, homes, country and give it to a warmonger? What fucking signal do you think that sends to Putin? It sends ‘hey, you can illegally invade another country, you’ll then get to keep some of it as we will give up’. What will he then do to other non-NATO countries? 

You don’t get lasting peace by giving in to a tyrant, giving into a dictatorial invader. You do what it takes to beat him. Your position would have been so dangerous in WW2. By trying to stop the war you’d have cost millions of lives and delayed, maybe indefinitely, security and peace on the continent. Quite frankly I find your position drifting between incoherent, naive, and evil. Hiding behind the ruse of the wanting peace, you’re tacitly accepting invasion and encouraging further destabilisation. ‘Of course Ukraine should get something’. Wow, how fucking generous of you. What of their country are they allowed to keep? I’ll be around to rob your house tomorrow, you can get to keep the sofa. Sound ok? 

2 hours ago, Red Phoenix said:

The main point is this : if there's a ceasefire and talks, which Zelensky, Johnson and Biden should really be pursuing if they're bothered about Human lives, people will stop getting injured and killed. And no amount of propaganda or war frenzy or accusations of being in league with Hitler or issuing Kremlin talking points or mental gymnastics can cut through that fact.

That’s a lot of words for ‘if you stop the war, the war stops’. Yes, brilliant. It’s not about the obvious logic that if there’s a cease fire that the firing will cease, it’s that there is a war being waged by Russia on Ukraine and how to actually achieve it in a way that is palatable to those being illegally invaded. They got invaded, it’s not a mutual thing. The Ukrainians are trying to defend themselves. The fact that you criticise Zelensky, the leader who has had his country illegally invaded, and the two main allies supporting him in his defence of his nation without mentioning the other side - as if ceasefires can happen unilaterally - shows where your head is. 
 

It is perfectly reasonable when attacked to say ‘no, these are the preconditions for ceasefire or negotiations’, and if ‘stop attacking us’ is one of those, and if the other side is still attacking, anybody criticising the victim is a vile cunt. 

2 hours ago, Red Phoenix said:

War is bad, it's fucking stupid and we should be making every attempt possible to stop it. Fuck the propaganda.

Yes. Everybody do a peace. Genius. Why didn’t they think of that. You know, like it was before they were attacked.  
 

A ridiculous post in full. 

[Red Phoenix]

2 hours ago, Rico1304 said:

The fact you don’t care who controls what is somewhat, well, immaterial.  But it’s exactly the attitude that Putin is hoping for, well done. 

 

I'm coming back to this seeing as I noticed you did the usual : twisted what I said.

 

2 hours ago, Red Phoenix said:

I honestly couldn't give a fuck who controls what here at the moment.

 

You didn't leave that off by accident I don't think. The point is that I don't give a fuck who controls what at the moment when it comes to the idea of a ceasefire. I've been looking at Ukraine maps for months, I know roughly who controls what at the moment. If we had a ceasefire and talks they could at least see if there's any chance of peace.

 

I could've left this of course but I'm not having it that you can make out like I'd be fine with Russians rampaging across the entire of Ukraine and I'd not give a fuck. I don't give a fuck about where it is right now, over the chances of trying to get a ceasefire that could stop the injuries and deaths.

 

This is if it's even possible to get a ceasefire of course. But the US and UK have not made one single attempt at this. Isn't this exactly what defence contractors are hoping for as well? Do I say well done here?

 

Don't you think it's strange that your only counter to the idea of a ceasefire for the sake of people's lives is to deflect once again to Putin? I don't like Putin and don't support him or his war. If there's a ceasefire both sides could see if there's any way past this, people could stop being injured and killed and Ukraine could even get more supplies in for the war if they wanted to (Ukraine are running really low on ammo apparently) for if talks didn't get anywhere. Maybe Putin realises this and that's why it wouldn't work out, but the attempt at it not even being made if there's a chance for this war to be over or for people to stop being injured and killed for a while, for me is insane.

 

Aren't there close to 1000 people trapped in some chemical plant in Severodonetsk? What do you think helps them more? An ongoing war or a ceasefire? With a ceasefire they instantly leave that plant and they're saved. A lot of others could be saved in other areas too. Thousands of civilians could get the chance to get out of dangerous areas and to safety. It should at least be attempted.

[Numero Veinticinco]

I too support a mythical ceasefire.