Should the UK remain a member of the EU

[Rico1304]

All the Lexit voting mongs really need to take this in. Corbyn's grand nationalisation plan is DOA when there'll barely be the funds to pay for it.

I’m becoming convinced May will say ‘This is Impossible, I’m not doing it’ call a GE and let Labour become the Brexit party.

[Anny Road]

No deal Brexit:

2,800,000 fewer jobs

£158bn loss per year

 

Trade agreement Brexit (outside the single market):

1,750,000 fewer jobs

£99bn loss per year

 

Soft Brexit (EEA & single market):

700,000 fewer jobs

£39bn loss per year

 

Remain in EU:

No impact on jobs

Sorry Rico but that is bollocks.

I'm not denying a big impact but to state in those factual terms is exactly what both sides did before the referendum and look were that got us.

There will be at least 100.000 new jobs created in dealing with the customs admin for a start.

[skend04]

I’m becoming convinced May will say ‘This is Impossible, I’m not doing it’ call a GE and let Labour become the Brexit party.

I'm not sure, I think the further we progress with this the more likely it is that the Tories bunker down and send us over the cliff.

 

Sorry Rico but that is bollocks.

I'm not denying a big impact but to state in those factual terms is exactly what both sides did before the referendum and look were that got us.

There will be at least 100.000 new jobs created in dealing with the customs admin for a start.

Why is it bollocks? These are from the government's own assessments that they tried to bury. What assessment have you done that debunks these figures?

[Rico1304]

Sorry Rico but that is bollocks.

I'm not denying a big impact but to state in those factual terms is exactly what both sides did before the referendum and look were that got us.

There will be at least 100.000 new jobs created in dealing with the customs admin for a start.

As stated these are the government assessments.

 

Am I supposed to be overjoyed that we’ll need at least 100k civil servants we currently don’t?

[Anny Road]

No doubting these are government FORECASTS and not saying there will not be a hit but lets not dress these up as undisputed facts.

Truth is no one has a fucking clue what will happen. That itself is the problem. That is down to the government.

[Rico1304]

No doubting these are government FORECASTS and not saying there will not be a hit but lets not dress these up as undisputed facts.

Truth is no one has a fucking clue what will happen. That itself is the problem. That is down to the government.

Is it fuck, it’s because no one realised how fucking hard it would be, except the experts. But we were told we’d had enough of them.

[Rico1304]

And again why should I be happy to have 100k additional government employees in a single dept?

[Anny Road]

That was a bit tongue in cheek mate. Just to illustrate that there will be other factors. Other jobs will be created. Not as many as lost but it is all a guessing game and no one has a clue.

[Anny Road]

Is it fuck, it’s because no one realised how fucking hard it would be, except the experts. But we were told we’d had enough of them.

How hard what will be? We don't know what it will be yet.

I actually think the white paper is bang on. Close as possible ties economically but distancing ourselves politically.

Won't happen though.

We will collapse towards no deal. Government will fall. national administration will be installed and we will come up with an expensive compromise. But it will be the end of the Tories as we know them. Could be the end of the traditional Party Political structure.

Great stuff.

[magicrat]

What days do you think we should go back to? What decade, in your opinion, should be the model going forward?

 

Painting the map pink again , buying more gun-boats and making people slaves in their own countries is the dream,

[skend04]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-airshow-airbus/airbus-says-activating-brexit-contingency-plans-as-uk-strategy-unravelling-idUKKBN1K81PA?il=0

 

First part of contingency planning being actioned now at Airbus but I hadn't realised that Rolls Royce might do the same too. I know from mates working there that a lot of the elder guys voted leave. They'll be gone in the jobs cull announced a month or so ago. Fucking turkeys.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

Sorry Rico but that is bollocks.

I'm not denying a big impact but to state in those factual terms is exactly what both sides did before the referendum and look were that got us.

There will be at least 100.000 new jobs created in dealing with the customs admin for a start.

Those figures are from the DExEU - the people whose job it is to make a success of Brexit.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

No doubting these are government FORECASTS and not saying there will not be a hit but lets not dress these up as undisputed facts.

Truth is no one has a fucking clue what will happen. That itself is the problem. That is down to the government.

People do have a fucking clue. That's how forecasting works. Just because the Met Office can't say "it will start raining at 11:37 next Tuesday" doesn't mean you should ignore them when they forecast rain next Tuesday; I'll be under a brolly, while you're drenched to the bone saying "Nobody had a fucking clue this would happen."

[AngryOfTuebrook]

How hard what will be? We don't know what it will be yet.

I actually think the white paper is bang on. Close as possible ties economically but distancing ourselves politically.

Won't happen though.

We will collapse towards no deal. Government will fall. national administration will be installed and we will come up with an expensive compromise. But it will be the end of the Tories as we know them. Could be the end of the traditional Party Political structure.

Great stuff.

Jeez, Anny, you're better than this. That last bit sounds like Gnasher.

[deiseach]

Leaving the EU in order to engineer the destruction of the Tories would be a dubious proposition even if it were possible. The reality that it's impossible makes it completely bats. Don't confuse their current turmoil, which happens to be mirrored in Labour, with impending doom for the party. They survived the Corn Laws, they survived Irish Home Rule, and they'll survive this. If anything, this will make them a greater force for malignity as the wets are purged and those remaining (so to speak) will be completely off the leash. By the time the party of Rees-Mogg is finished, we'll all be hankering after the party of Cameron.

[Anny Road]

Unless there is a complete break, hard Brexit, no deal, at least a third of the the Tories will explode. There is no going back for them.

That option will never get parliamentary approval. If it is proposed the Government will fall.

The current white paper is unacceptable to them and a number of others and if proposed they will revolt and if Labour et al stand up the government will fall.

 

There is no way parliament in its current format can approve Brexit. The numbers are not there.

[Rico1304]

Unless there is a complete break, hard Brexit, no deal, at least a third of the the Tories will explode. There is no going back for them.

That option will never get parliamentary approval. If it is proposed the Government will fall.

The current white paper is unacceptable to them and a number of others and if proposed they will revolt and if Labour et al stand up the government will fall.

 

There is no way parliament in its current format can approve Brexit. The numbers are not there.

Doesn’t chequers allow for a kind of coalition to see it over the line?

[Anny Road]

I think that will be a Unity Government. No way will May be in the hot seat.

[Rico1304]

I think that will be a Unity Government. No way will May be in the hot seat.

Starmer for me.

[Anny Road]

Agreed. Good choice

[Liverpool lad]

The Brexit lot are fucked

[Anny Road]

The Brexit lot are fucked

So are remain. There is no majority for this administration in either.

[Liverpool lad]

I cannot wait to stockpile food

[skend04]

I cannot wait to stockpile food

The government are going to start sending technical notes out to households and businesses from August. 70 of them apparently. If people still agree with a hard brexit after that then there's no hope for the place.

[deiseach]

I cannot wait to stockpile food