Top 4, Yay or Nay?

[Scott_M]

Feel less optimistic than I did before the weekend.

 

We’ll see.

 

Didn’t see Southampton getting points at Arsenal on Friday, strange things can happen.

 

Just win our games.

[an tha]

27 minutes ago, lebron said:

 

Haha, Kane is without exception awful against the Mancs, so that might very well be. I console myself with the fact that research shows that teams that lose heavily often win the next game (as well as the opposite happening to the team that wins heavily).

It's all our own fault anyway - us moaning about likes of Tottenham or whoever not doing us a favour is just a symptom of how garbage this season has been.

 

We have to try of course and end it as best we can.

 

Then just have to dust ourselves off - do what needs doing in summer and no fucking about, no excuses, no bullshit - and come back next season with a squad up to the task.

[Lee909]

It went when Konate didn't get the ball over the line vs Arsenal in the last seconds, today just confirmed it. We don't deserve it either. You can't drop 14pts points against Bournemouth,Leeds,Forest, Wolves and Everton and expect top 4

[Denny Crane]

If you want to grasp any straws it's Manchester United who are running out of fuel not Newcastle. Teams with the GD of Manchester United don't often make the top 4.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Megadrive Man]

58 minutes ago, Elite said:

It's gone.

100% 

Has been for a long time too.

 

I can't believe people genuinely thought Spurs would get a result today.

[TheDrowningMan]

All over and has been for a long time. No excuse on FSG’s part not to spend a lot more than we otherwise would have done this summer in order to reclaim that spot.

[kemskem]

It’s not inconceivable that Newcastle lose one and draw 3 but we’d need to make up a -8 goal difference.

[coachpotato]

We could pretty much do that in one game ( see Bournemouth (h), Man Utd (h) and Leeds (a) ). 
I agree, not going to happen though, Newcastle have at least some consistency about them, which we haven’t had all season.

[No2]

38 minutes ago, kemskem said:

It’s not inconceivable that Newcastle lose one and draw 3 but we’d need to make up a -8 goal difference.

Goal difference won't be an issue, to get to that scenario the goal difference becomes -2 at bare minimum, if we have won 8 on the bounce you can guarantee there will be plenty of goals scored.

[VERBAL DIARRHEA]

We’re not finishing fourth.

[Jairzinho]

2 hours ago, VERBAL DIARRHEA said:

We’re not finishing fourth.

 

Yeah, but what if we win every single game and everyone else loses every single game?

 

 

 

 

[Ne Moe Imya]

On 23/04/2023 at 11:24, Scott_M said:

Feel less optimistic than I did before the weekend.

 

We’ll see.

 

Didn’t see Southampton getting points at Arsenal on Friday, strange things can happen.

 

Just win our games.

 

I mean, technically we went from a 7% chance before the weekend to a 10% chance now, so our odds are better, I guess?

On the other hand, it's not like 10% means it's likely to happen, either.

[Aventus]

[Razoray]

On 24/04/2023 at 10:49, kemskem said:

It’s not inconceivable that Newcastle lose one and draw 3 but we’d need to make up a -8 goal difference.

If they lose 1 and draw 3, while we win 7, then that is at least 5 goals made up. If we get 71 points, it won't be goal difference that beats us. 

[Razoray]

8 hours ago, Aventus said:

 

[Scott_M]

I’d love to shut these cunts up…

 

 

… although part thinks that if Newcastle, Villa & Brighton are all in Europe next season, they won’t have the squads to cope with twice a week for half the season. I know Newcastle will likely spend heavily, it’ll still be a big learning curb for Howe. 

[JustTosh]

On 24/04/2023 at 11:49, kemskem said:

It’s not inconceivable that Newcastle lose one and draw 3 but we’d need to make up a -8 goal difference.

We're 9 points behind. To catch up we'd need to win 3 times giving us at least +3 GD and see Newcastle lose 3 times with at least -3 GD. In reality GD probably goes our way.

 

The problem is the 9 point difference. 4th is gone, but I suppose we shouldn't give up entirely. Fat lady, singing and all that..

 

[lebron]

The GD is the least of our troubles. I'm more optimistic than both (as evidenced in this thread), but I'm pretty sure we have to win tonight. IF we can do that, I think we have a much better shot than the 10 pct the bookies are giving us.

 

Newcastle will be favourites in most of the games they've got left, but they're vulnerable away from home (I know, so are we...). They'll also face 3 relegation candidates fighting for their lives. In terms of difficulty, I'd rank their fixtures like this with 1 the toughest, 7 the easiest.

 

27.4 Everton (a) - 3. Tough game. Can see them dropping points here. Draw?

30.4 Southampton (h) - 6. Praying for a small favour here, unlikely. Win

7.5 Arsenal (h) - 1. probably their toughest remaining game. Loss

13.5 Leeds (a) 5. With a week to prepare this should be easy enough. It being away makes it harder than against Leicester and Southampton though. Win

18.5 Brighton (h) 2. Brighton fighting for Europe. I've said all season that they are the 3rd best team in the league. Time to make it count. Draw or loss?

22.5 Leicester (h) 7. Can't see them keeping Newcastle from scoring. Win.

28.5 Chelsea (a) 4. Let's hope they sack Lampard before this one. Draw?

 

We need them to drop points tonight I think. If they draw tonight and lose to Arsenal, we need two more draws. Brighton and Chelsea look the most likely.

 

This is all subject to us winning our remaining games of course, which I think we can do. Our players have dug deep before when everything's been on the line. Let's hope they can do so again.

 

Edit. Thought I'd do the same exercise for our games...

 

West Ham (a) 1. Toughest game. Win and we're in?

Spurs (h) 4. They are in complete disarray. Win

Fulham (h) 5. Possibly tougher than Spurs? Win

Brentford (h) 3. Bad matchup, need to be clinical. Win

Leicester (a) 7. Can't see them keeping us out. Win

Villa (h) 2. Bad matchup, Emery's shrewd. Win

Southampton (a) If we're still in it we'll do them. Win

 

 

 

[an tha]

Blind faith, the hope that you of course need as a footy supporter aside - i still have no idea why people think a team who have performed like we have this season and who have a longest winning run of 4 games (achieved once) all season, can suddenly put together what will be a 9 game winning run and with the 2 draws that precede it an 11 game unbeaten run...

 

I'll be fucking delighted if they can like, but even more fucking amazed....

[Jose Jones]

3 minutes ago, an tha said:

Blind faith, the hope that you of course need as a footy supporter aside - i still have no idea why people think a team who have performed like we have this season and who have a longest winning run of 4 games (achieved once) all season, can suddenly put together what will be a 9 game winning run and with the 2 draws that precede it an 11 game unbeaten run...

 

I'll be fucking delighted if they can like, but even more fucking amazed....

Yeah, we’re so shit that we’re below Spurs who are a complete catastrophe and just sacked their interim manager for shipping 6 goals, after they sacked their manager for calling the whole club and players a bunch of massive losers.

We’re definitely losing to West Ham.

[lebron]

8 minutes ago, an tha said:

Blind faith, the hope that you of course need as a footy supporter aside - i still have no idea why people think a team who have performed like we have this season and who have a longest winning run of 4 games (achieved once) all season, can suddenly put together what will be a 9 game winning run and with the 2 draws that precede it an 11 game unbeaten run...

 

I'll be fucking delighted if they can like, but even more fucking amazed....

 

I think people generally underestimate the value of training together and having 1 game a week to concentrate on has on a squad like ours. There's a reason why people have been citing physical and mental fatigue all season. I think it's likely that we'll see an upturn in performances as well as results the rest of the way. Whether that's enough to get 9 straight wins is of course debatable, but our fixture list is pretty favourable after tonight.

 

Remember, Newcastle have been dealing with this type of fixture list all season. We haven't. Apart from Firmino, everyone with a shout of 1st 11 duties are all fit as well. The Mancs are falling apart on that front, but they've probably done enough to get 3rd or 4th now, shame that they went out to Sevilla, as I think that would have been enough for them to collapse completely physically.

[No2]

We need to win tonight so we can enjoy tomorrow night. A draw both nights would be a disaster, a West Ham Newcastle double I could tolerate, a Liverpool Everton double is the best outcome, a draw in either game is a disaster all around. 

[joe_fishfish]

Win tonight and it’s on. (Until Everton lose to Newcastle)

[Scott_M]

Everton beat Arsenal at Woodison.

 

Southampton held Arsenal to a draw at the Emirates. 
 

Leicester hammered Spurs. 
 

Leeds beat us and Chelsea. 
 

I’m form Brighton and Villa seemingly have everybody to play. 
 

Varane and Martinez seem out for the season for the mancs. Fernandes is currently injured as well. 
 

The manner of Newcastle’s win on Sunday was somewhat demoralising but them winning wasn’t unexpected. 
 

I know it’s a long shot and we need snookers but it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do all we can. 

[an tha]

2 hours ago, lebron said:

 

I think people generally underestimate the value of training together and having 1 game a week to concentrate on has on a squad like ours. There's a reason why people have been citing physical and mental fatigue all season. I think it's likely that we'll see an upturn in performances as well as results the rest of the way. Whether that's enough to get 9 straight wins is of course debatable, but our fixture list is pretty favourable after tonight.

 

Remember, Newcastle have been dealing with this type of fixture list all season. We haven't. Apart from Firmino, everyone with a shout of 1st 11 duties are all fit as well. The Mancs are falling apart on that front, but they've probably done enough to get 3rd or 4th now, shame that they went out to Sevilla, as I think that would have been enough for them to collapse completely physically.

I'd like to think we can do this - and will be made up to be wrong if do - but I just can't see it, there is literally nothing that suggests we can - even taking into account what you say here, which is all fair enough like.

 

It for me boils down to just not trusting this team at all this season and i feel the next abysmal result is only ever just around the corner or the squad is only a hairs breadth away from falling to bits due to injuries etc.

 

Like i say - i will be made up to see them prove me wrong - but i don't think we will get within 6 pts of a top 4 spot.