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Denny Crane

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About Denny Crane

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  1. Denny Crane

    Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    Can't not leave the EU on Brexit day if we steal the mace.
  2. Denny Crane

    Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    I agree, a softer Brexit than May's was always on the cards if it was given time in parliament. I always thought No Deal was going to be stopped by Parliament. Just posting you some of their ideas.
  3. Denny Crane

    Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    One theory is better an extension than May's Brexit this is argued by a QC who works with the DUP and ERG. Full article below. Key points: A short Article 50 extension of under 3 months would make no practical difference and fear of one is not a reason for backing the deal. A long extension of 21 months would have the same practical result as the “implementation” period in the deal, except the UK would be much better off than under the deal because we would still have a vote and representation in EU institutions and the European Parliament. Unlike the deal, we would be free to leave on 1st January 2021 without being trapped in the “backstop” Protocol. Our financial liabilities during the 21 month extension would be the same as under the deal, but unlike the deal, we would have no obligations afterwards. Unlike under the deal, we would not be subject to indefinite ECJ jurisdiction after 2020. We would not be subject to EU state aid controls after 2020, nor to Commission and ECJ “long tail” powers after that date. We could line up international trade deals to come into force from 1st January 2021. Under the deal, we could not do this because the backstop Protocol and the commitments on tariffs we have made in the Political Declaration mean we could not assure negotiating partners that we would be in a position to implement deals with them. We would have more time to prepare for a “no deal” Brexit, enhancing our negotiating power with the EU, and also more time to develop and deploy alternative customs control methods on goods crossing the Irish border. An Article 50 extension is obviously being used as a ‘Trojan horse’ by Remainers and referendum-deniers who want to reverse Brexit. But Brexit supporters should not be swayed by that into supporting Theresa May’s deal which would poison Brexit and create a situation so bad that calls to re-enter the EU would grow in order at least to have a vote on all the areas where we will be rule-takers from Brussels https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/03/martin-howe-it-is-far-better-to-risk-extending-article-50-than-to-accept-mays-bad-deal.html
  4. Denny Crane

    Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    One take on the indicative votes with a simple graphic.
  5. Denny Crane

    Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    There was me foolishly thinking MPs would not vote tactically with the indicative vote options. Some people will suggest they have given May's deal some legitimacy by not working together and getting behind other options. Not sure where they go from here. Been busy so not followed this for a few days but what's happening about the two stage process? Will they choose say a few of the more popular choices for further voting to get a greater consensus.
  6. Denny Crane

    Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    May's final throw of the dice vote for my shit or I call a General Election.
  7. Denny Crane

    Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    Tom Watson heckled and booed apparently when he gave his speech yesterday.
  8. Denny Crane

    Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    I'd almost forgotten this. Interesting how we hear more moaning about Seamus Milne but not this fella.
  9. Denny Crane

    Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    Moof is right. But Labour's position has evolved over time and is not rigid. Democracy isn't a click your fingers process and isn't always pretty especially when you are in the midst of a 30 year Tory civil war over Europe. I don't see why Labour has to take the hit especially as Austerity and regional inequality was a driver behind Brexit votes in a lot of places. These estimates show that while the national result of the referendum was relatively close, with 52% voting Leave and 48% voting Remain, a much larger majority of parliamentary seats voted to Leave – with 64% of seats in Great Britain voting Leave. (This is likely due to the uneven distribution of Remain voters, who tended to cluster in large cities, while Leave voters were more evenly spread.) According to these estimates, around 75% of constituencies that were won by the Conservatives in the 2017 general election voted to Leave, while around 61% of Labour constituencies voted to Leave. All seats won by the Scottish National Party and the Green Party, and a majority of the seats won by the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru, voted to Remain. https://fullfact.org/europe/did-majority-conservative-and-labour-constituencies-vote-leave-eu-referendum/
  10. Denny Crane

    Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    Too long to post but worth a read on the civil war going on in the Tory party from former Guido who seems to have solid sources. A few insiders think she might call a General Election and they are split several ways on the way forward. https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/cabinet-ministers-are-plotting-to-oust-theresa-may-as-her
  11. Denny Crane

    Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    Be good to see some of those Torys lose their seats if Brexit would be decisive in how they voted. But the flipside is 14/15 at the other end are Labour MPs constuiencies with the lowest % signing the petition. It highlights the balancing act Labour are having to do.
  12. Denny Crane

    Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    It looks very accurate to me. You can match up remain dominated constuiency areas signing in bigger volumes with constuiencies that voted that way and leave dominated areas are highly reflected in their absence of signing. Brexit in a nutshell, two sides entrenched.
  13. Denny Crane

    Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    Breakdown of postcodes for the petition. Quick count has 19 of the first 25 in London and Bristol at number 1 with a huge student population and a few other student places high up. You can flip the % of voters arrow and look at lowest % and see Northern and Midlands areas the complete reverse. https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584 https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584#
  14. Denny Crane

    Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    Stephen Bush @stephenkb Many MPs believe that Jeremy Corbyn's trips to the Commission are going to yield a negotiable set of changes to the political declaration, likely tabled by one of the backbenchers he has met with in recent days