Russia v Ukraine

[Jose Jones]

1 hour ago, Red Shift said:

For discussion. Or not.

Origins of this conflict. https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

 

Completely different set of geopolitical conditions when the Western leaders were talking to Gorbachev about German unification over 30 years ago, when the USSR still existed and most of Eastern Europe was still under the Warsaw pact.

 

I reckon anyone using those promises of NATO not moving "one inch further eastwards" to the Soviet Union as a condition for their support of German unification, over 30 years ago, as a justification, or even the origin, for Russia now invading Ukraine is over shooting it a real bit.

 

"The West" could have done a fair bit more to bring Russia into the fold, including not assisting in the fucking over of the country during the Yeltsin years.  But this one reeks of a searching for a gotcha for those not really interested in understanding the origins of the invasion. 

[polymerpunkah]

Is there any chance that this puts Russia back on the path to a genuine democracy?

 

Or would it require a cure worse than the disease?

 

eg. an economic collapse.

 

Them getting rid of Putin would be an excellent first step.

 

 

 

 

 

[JagSquared]

Anyone else have issues with the site last night? Has Putins hackers decided to target TLW? 

[Mudface]

43 minutes ago, JagSquared said:

Anyone else have issues with the site last night? Has Putins hackers decided to target TLW? 

There was a back up at some point and performance was a bit flakey afterwards while Dave was uploading everyone's info to the FSB. Aside from that, it was OK.

[Gnasher]

4 hours ago, Jose Jones said:

 

Completely different set of geopolitical conditions when the Western leaders were talking to Gorbachev about German unification over 30 years ago, when the USSR still existed and most of Eastern Europe was still under the Warsaw pact.

 

I reckon anyone using those promises of NATO not moving "one inch further eastwards" to the Soviet Union as a condition for their support of German unification, over 30 years ago, as a justification, or even the origin, for Russia now invading Ukraine is over shooting it a real bit.

 

"The West" could have done a fair bit more to bring Russia into the fold, including not assisting in the fucking over of the country during the Yeltsin years.  But this one reeks of a searching for a gotcha for those not really interested in understanding the origins of the invasion. 

Most of the Nato expansion east took place on Putins watch. One train of thought says Putin now feels a sense of guilt and sees Ukraine as a red line.

[J-V]

8 hours ago, M_B said:

It wasn't a drone. It was this.

 

 

 

But that video shows you their tactics. They set up an ambush, destroyed 2 vehicles, and then legged it. Guerilla tactics with anti tank weapons.

I know I already posted a picture of what it was.

[Section_31]

Regardless of what chicanery NATO may have been up to, I'm pretty sure it's never involved murdering a Russian citizen on Russian territory in a way that was so reckless it could have led to hundreds if not thousands of wider deaths, and then laughing about it on TV. 

 

Also, let's not forget the USSR 'lost'. To the victor goes the spoils and all that, and to be fair the spoils basically involved letting Romanians get jobs in Western countries and reassuring the Poles that they wouldn't get invaded for like the 50th time in a hundred years. 

 

Imagine the West had collapsed and not the Soviets and the only 'price' we paid for it was Belgium joining the Warsaw Pact. Who'd give a flying fuck. Does the Russian in the street give a shit? Or is it just a former KGB officer and gangster? 

 

[Gnasher]

27 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

Regardless of what chicanery NATO may have been up to, I'm pretty sure it's never involved murdering a Russian citizen on Russian territory in a way that was so reckless it could have led to hundreds if not thousands of wider deaths, and then laughing about it on TV. 

 

Also, let's not forget the USSR 'lost'. To the victor goes the spoils and all that, and to be fair the spoils basically involved letting Romanians get jobs in Western countries and reassuring the Poles that they wouldn't get invaded for like the 50th time in a hundred years. 

 

Imagine the West had collapsed and not the Soviets and the only 'price' we paid for it was Belgium joining the Warsaw Pact. Who'd give a flying fuck. Does the Russian in the street give a shit? Or is it just a former KGB officer and gangster? 

 

I think the argument is Nato enlargement may have been a  contributing factor in 2 million Ukrainians losing their homes, an economic disaster and the world on the brink of a possible nuclear war. Its a little more widely felt than the murder of an ex Russian spy on British soil.

[Sugar Ape]

https://amp.theguardian.com/film/2022/mar/07/putin-hollywood-pals-leonardo-dicaprio-steven-seagal-depardieu-rourke-stars-snuggled-up-russian-dictator

[stringvest]

10 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

I think the argument is Nato enlargement may have been a  contributing factor in 2 million Ukrainians losing their homes, an economic disaster and the world on the brink of a possible nuclear war. Its a little more widely felt than the murder of an ex Russian spy on British soil.

Putin uses it as an excuse, but was it a reason?  And was it shared by the Russian populace falling over itself to become a consumer society?

[Section_31]

13 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

I think the argument is Nato enlargement may have been a  contributing factor in 2 million Ukrainians losing their homes, an economic disaster and the world on the brink of a possible nuclear war. Its a little more widely felt than the murder of an ex Russian spy on British soil.

Bollocks. Putin is the big dog, he's got everyone dancing to his tune in the Kremlin, Moscow and the wider web he's woven, if they don't do what he wants he has them killed. He's tried to export that attitude to another country and has had his arse handed to him. 

 

The man bemoans how badly treated Russia has been by the west, yet has been personally enriched by the fall of Communism. If the USSR was still around he'd still be a mid-level bureaucrat driving a lada and queuing in line for turnips. 

 

The brass neck of someone to bemoan how another society has treated his when the guy was actually stationed in East Germany, you know, a conquered country, and has flattened Chechnya, Georgia and now Ukrain.

 

This is nobody's fault but his. He wasn't cornered, quite the contrary, he put the US President and arguably the British Prime Minister in office, he was actually winning - he's fucked it up for the same reason all despots eventually do - he wanted more. 

 

[Gnasher]

6 minutes ago, stringvest said:

Putin uses it as an excuse, but was it a reason?  And was it shared by the Russian populace falling over itself to become a consumer society?

 

I don't know, I don't think anyone but himself knows for sure. Our foreign policy of the past 30 odd years of interference in other countries has proven disastrous, the panorama documentary last night of the parents whose little girl got killed in the Manchester bombing being just one example. I'd prefer the days when we were less gung ho and a lot more cautious.

[Babb'sBurstNad]

10 hours ago, Bjornebye said:

Where is Budapest? 

 

10 hours ago, Clem H Fandango said:

Hungary?

 

10 hours ago, Bjornebye said:

I’m fine thanks Clem, I’ve eaten 

 

10 hours ago, TheBitch said:

Borders Ukraine. 
 

(fuck Babb’sburst cunt)

 

10 hours ago, Bjornebye said:

He’s gonna hit the roof 

 

[Section_31]

David Banner shit me up more than the actual hulk, comes across as a social worker who's closet gay and  takes his frustrations out by having people removed from loving parents. 

[Gnasher]

33 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

Bollocks. Putin is the big dog, he's got everyone dancing to his tune in the Kremlin, Moscow and the wider web he's woven, if they don't do what he wants he has them killed. He's tried to export that attitude to another country and has had his arse handed to him. 

 

The man bemoans how badly treated Russia has been by the west, yet has been personally enriched by the fall of Communism. If the USSR was still around he'd still be a mid-level bureaucrat driving a lada and queuing in line for turnips. 

 

The brass neck of someone to bemoan how another society has treated his when the guy was actually stationed in East Germany, you know, a conquered country, and has flattened Chechnya, Georgia and now Ukrain.

 

This is nobody's fault but his. He wasn't cornered, quite the contrary, he put the US President and arguably the British Prime Minister in office, he was actually winning - he's fucked it up for the same reason all despots eventually do - he wanted more. 

 

All fair points and its hard to disagree with that but I was talking about out own shortcomings and our foreign policy in general over the past couple of decades, our lust for expansion and meddling has come at a cost, unfortunately its the people who always pay the price, the oil barons and weapons manufacturers, the politicians and major businesses will see this as an opportunity. 

 

The wider aspect of this war is it could herald the return of Trump, the re election of Johnson, massive increases on weapons spending and major world wide recession.  Remember the political aftermath of the Falklands cemented Thatcherism along with Regan's voodoo economics. Argentinas Galiterai was another mad fascist, we stopped him and got thanked with 20 years of misery, it's not a question of if one's bad the other must be good.

[Jairzinho]

44 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

https://amp.theguardian.com/film/2022/mar/07/putin-hollywood-pals-leonardo-dicaprio-steven-seagal-depardieu-rourke-stars-snuggled-up-russian-dictator

[Red Shift]

6 hours ago, Jose Jones said:

 

Completely different set of geopolitical conditions when the Western leaders were talking to Gorbachev about German unification over 30 years ago, when the USSR still existed and most of Eastern Europe was still under the Warsaw pact.

 

I reckon anyone using those promises of NATO not moving "one inch further eastwards" to the Soviet Union as a condition for their support of German unification, over 30 years ago, as a justification, or even the origin, for Russia now invading Ukraine is over shooting it a real bit.

 

"The West" could have done a fair bit more to bring Russia into the fold, including not assisting in the fucking over of the country during the Yeltsin years.  But this one reeks of a searching for a gotcha for those not really interested in understanding the origins of the invasion. 

What if real cooperation had created a different setting- is it possible that the likes of Putin would not have come to power?

[cochyn]

54 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

I don't know, I don't think anyone but himself knows for sure. Our foreign policy of the past 30 odd years of interference in other countries has proven disastrous, the panorama documentary last night of the parents whose little girl got killed in the Manchester bombing being just one example. I'd prefer the days when we were less gung ho and a lot more cautious.

When, 1066? We’ve been an imperial power for hundreds of years and am invasive mercantile power for much longer. We’ve always been up in other people’s shit. If anything, these days we’re the least gregarious we’ve ever been.

 

[Grinch]

17 minutes ago, cochyn said:

When, 1066? We’ve been an imperial power for hundreds of years and am invasive mercantile power for much longer. We’ve always been up in other people’s shit. If anything, these days we’re the least gregarious we’ve ever been.

 

I think he’s referring to the days when the brits could kill unarmed civilians and cover it up easily.

[SasaS]

Latest from Tom Cooper, quickly approaching Dave Usher status of war daily summaries, with his Keystone Cops and "my boy general Zusko" .

"Good morning everybody!

 

Here my summary for the last 24-36 hours (7 Mar 22).

 

 

CAA - Combined Arms Army (Russia)

BTG - Battalion Tactical Group (Russia)

GTA - Guards Tank Army (Russia)

GTD - Guards Tank Division (Russia)

IFV - infantry fighting vehicle

MBT - main battle tank

MRB - Motorized Rifle Brigade (throw a G in the front if Guards)

MRD - Motorized Rifle Division (ditto for the G for Guards). Majority of the Russian Ground Forces are Motorized Rifle (i.e. Mechanized Infantry with supporting tanks)

NW – north-west

RFA – Russian Federation Army/Russian Armed Forces

RF-9xxxx - Russian military aviation registration

UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle

VDV - Vozdushno-desantnye voyska (Russian Airborne forces)

VKS - Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)

West OSK – Western Military District, RFA

STRATEGIC

As of 6 Mar 22, the RFA had at least 115, possibly more than 120 BGTs deployed in Ukraine. I.e. over 95% of its forces deployed for this operation. Additionally, the Separatists had about a dozen of their own motor rifle regiments, two artillery brigades, and one special forces regiment. That is a total of about 190,000 Russian- (minus losses) and 20,000 Separatist troops.

Mobilisation of Ukrainian forces is largely completed and I estimate them at between 190,000 and 210,000 troops. This is including a 2000-strong ‘battalion’ of foreign volunteers, which was declared for operational and sent to the frontlines yesterday. Means, combatants-wise, there is parity: where the Ukrainians remain much weaker is the air and artillery.

 

AIR & SEA

There’s meanwhile no doubt the Ukrainian TB.2s are vividly active, especially in the south. But, the MOD in Kyiv is not releasing any kind of details. There’s also no doubt that the VKS has no control over something like two thirds of the Ukrainian airspace. I’ll discuss these and few related issues separately.

Russians hit an oil depot in Zhitomir with a ballistic missile. As of Friday last week (4 Mar 22), the Russians fired over 400 of their SS-21s and SS-26; by now, the number is approaching 700.

Russian Navy launched a cruise-missile strike on unknown targets in central Ukraine, yesterday. It’s unclear what exactly was targeted.

 

NORTH

The 35th CAA is massing forces north of Irpin. Was reinforced by the Chechens: the question is now when is it going to attack, and how. I expect the Russians there to continue consolidating and preparing – then to re-launch their assault as soon as at least the 1st and 2nd GTA are inside eastern outskirts of Kyiv, for example. Ukrainians are ‘unusually silent’, especially regarding their deployment along the border to Belarus further west: somehow, I doubt they’ve got ‘not a single soldier’ in all the hills and forests between Irpin and the Polish border…

 

NORTH-EAST

After losing its first Chief-of-Staff and Deputy Commander, about 4-5 days ago, yesterday the 41st CAA lost is next Chief-of-Staff and Deputy Commander, General Vitaly Gerasimov, and a number of other top officers. Circumstances remain unclear, but it seems their convoy was ambushed by the Ukrainian GUR (special forces asset). Me thinks, this might even prove of advantage for the 41st CAA, because that army underperformed most massively in the first 10 days of the war (as should be known from the last 70-80 years, ‘decapitating’ operations are rarely bringing any kind of tangible results).

Chernihiv remains under firm Ukrainian control, but the 36th CAA is now pushing on the city from west and south-west and its forward elements met the troops of the 41st CAA advancing from the east. Means: the place is cut off from the rest of Ukraine.

As expected, since yesterday the 2nd GTA is assaulting Ukrainian positions in the easternmost outskirts of Kyiv (about 5-10km outside the city). However, the 1st GTA is still not there: it was held up by counterattacks of the Ukrainian 58th Motor Rifle and 93rd Mechanised Brigades, which are constantly interdicting its southern flank and logistics columns. (beyond that, next to nothing is known). For example, the 'crack/famous' 4th GTD entirely stopped its advance in western direction and is fighting Ukrainians in the Okhtyrka region, ‘instead’.

Except for Sumy, it appears there are at least three other, sizeable ‘pockets’ controlled by Ukrainians in the back of the 41st CAA and the 2nd GTA: all are literal ‘thorns in the side’, because they are blocking vital roads, terrain around which is meanwhile looking like marsh, because of the famous/notorious Rasputitsa (thaw weather). Moreover, the garrison of Sumy (probably directed with help of NATO-supplied intel) is running raids along nearby roads, ambushing Russian reinforcements and supply columns (second photo).

After having its northern flank mauled by the counterattack of the 92nd Mechanised Brigade, 6th CAA entirely concentrated in southern direction and on reducing the Ukrainian 53rd Mech, somewhere between Slovyansk and Popasna. AFAIK, it was quite successful in this, but primarily thanks to help form the 20th and 8th CAAs.

This turned out to be a bad idea, then the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanised then launched another of its counterattacks, smashed a BTG of the 138th Guards MRB – and liberated Chuhiv, a town about 20km south-east of Kharkiv.

This is a good example for 'active defence': really, 'well done' in military sense - and I wouldn’t like to be in the boots of the CO and Deputy 6th CAA today. If the RFA fights the way that army fights, the Ukrainians are really going to drive all the way to Moscow...

 

EAST

Advances of the 20th CAA, 8th CAA, and Separatists in the East have been largely stopped as the Ukrainian Army managed to establish a new frontline – roughly from Slovyansk in the north to Rozivka in the south.

 

SOUTH

58th CAA’s advance in western direction can be considered for ‘checked’. After losing an entire BTG of the 7th Guards VDV in futile assaults on Voznesensk, Zusko squandered a BTG of the 20th Guards MRD in futile assaults on Mykolaiv, too. Videos released by the locals are shown entire columns of the latter being savaged; lots of MBTs destroyed (attached screen-grab is from one of videos in question). As reported yesterday, the Ukrainians hit his forward ammo depot and the airport of Kherson – both with artillery. They report massive damage, including destruction of up to 30 forward-deployed helicopters. Of course, not a ‘beep’ from the Russian side in this regards. Well, OK, yes: I did get a few replies. ‘Impossible’ and ‘can’t be’….Therefore, this remains ‘unconfirmed’.

It’s definitely so that Zusko will now have to stop and bring in reinforcements: that’s going to take him a few days. Appears, I underestimated the Ukrainian capability to stop this onslaught – or at least the strength of their forces in this part of the country. Now it now only looks like the RFA is never going to reach Odessa and/or Transnistria, but that there is simply no way for Zusko to resume his offensive without getting some 4-5 new BTGs.

The question is: from where?

He surely can’t withdraw them from his eastern flank, because this – apparently including nearly the complete 42nd Motor Rifle Division - began pushing in direction of Zhitomir and Polony. Frankly, I do not understand this decision: splitting an army into too many directions at once is against every doctrine I know, even more so if a commander as skilled as he has proven to be should know that the Ukrainians have significantly bolstered their defences.

(Ah yes: if my review of videos from the Zhitomir Nuclear Power Plant is correct, then I've found the 810th Marine Brigade. That was the unit that stormed the place. Would be logical: one can't assign such an ultra-sensitive target to 'some inexperienced idiots out there'. That took a 'crack, combat-experienced' outfit to do without causing catastrophic damage.)

Further south, Zusko’s army spent the last 5-6 days consolidating the siege of Mariupol, in cooperation with the 150th MRD of the 8th CAA. As expected the second ‘humanitarian evacuation’ of the latter port failed (what a surprise….).

 

CONCLUSION

Overall, unless one of Keystone Cops in Moscow finds an equivalent of division of the RFA and then some way to destroy one of major Ukrainian Army units – no matter where along this frontline – I currently do not see how do the Russians want to make any major achievements in this war. All their available forces are engaged: there’s no reserve left. Moreover, the Ukrainians have the advantage of the ‘inner line’: their communications are much shorter, while the Russians have to ‘dance’ long ways around them, and that along an insufficient road network largely running in east-west, not in north-south direction.

Sure, restoring order in the 41st CAA might help the West OSK to ‘find’ additional forces, but that’s going to take days. At the cost of ignoring large pockets of Ukrainian forces in the rear, perhaps even constructing several new roads around these, this might bring them into eastern Kyiv, but the defences there are meanwhile really well-prepared. And what then….?

Note for the end: I cannot recommend the use of 'war maps' published by different online sources, depicting Russians as in 'firm control' between one quarter and one third of Ukraine.

Sure, that's looking 'sexy', and making things easier for those who draw such maps. However, the actual situation is far more 'fluid': essentially, the Russians are moving up and down roads, but have far too few troops to control the area in between. The attached map is 'much more realistic' in regards of depicting the actual situation. Pay attention at - huge - 'empty' areas in between different of Russian prongs of advance: that's the reality.

 

 

 

[Section_31]

36 minutes ago, cochyn said:

When, 1066? We’ve been an imperial power for hundreds of years and am invasive mercantile power for much longer. We’ve always been up in other people’s shit. If anything, these days we’re the least gregarious we’ve ever been.

 

 

It's interesting though, cunts that we were/are, there are pressures that turn countries into what they become. Being a protestant country for instance meant the Spanish and French were always at the gates. Spain was the foremost imperial power and I'm pretty sure I read that Francis Drake made his bones by defending British merchant ships from Spanish marauders who used to attack with impunity.

 

That's why I always laugh when the Argentines bleat about the Falklands and British imperialism, half of South America are called Martinez. 

 

 

 

[Section_31]

Amazingly shit.

 

A Russian general has been killed in fighting around Kharkiv, Ukrainian intelligence has claimed, which would make him the second general the Russian army has lost in Ukraine in a week.

The intelligence arm of the Ukrainian defence ministry said Maj Gen Vitaly Gerasimov, chief of staff of the 41st Army, had been killed outside the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, along with other senior officers.

The ministry also broadcast what it claimed was a conversation between two Russian FSB officers discussing the death and complaining that their secure communications were no longer functioning inside Ukraine.

[Gnasher]

1 hour ago, Jairzinho said:

Di Caprios grandmother is from the Ukrainian city of Odessa.

[Gnasher]

I think the Beeb may have been a bit harsh on Zelensky with this article;

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-60647206.amp

[M_B]

 

Let's hope the Russians aren't building a narrative to justify using chemical weapons or even a tactical nuke. Or a red flag incident involving them. The russian advance is clearly stalling - would Putin resort to this to get it moving again? I fear he would actually.