The transfer reflection thread.

[piscinin]

Keeping it simple - very disappointed in Torres, given the love he got from our support and the support he got from the club through his injuries and indifferent late form. But once the transfer request went in - very happy with the way the club handled it.

 

Isolated Torres and f**ked him off sharpish before any discontent could spread. Got shed loads of monet for him and brought in a double strike force of a potentially very high standard, whilst keeping us in a financially sound position.

 

Well done Liverpool FC. F**k off Nando, you should know to behave better than that.

 

On reflection of the whole transfer media speculation bollocks. My back of a fag packet analysis of the media reporting on activity at LFC shows we were linked with 65 players, 2 of whom they got right, but only one in advance of it being common knowledge anyway. That was Suarez being first reported in the Mirror on 4th January (in the same article as it linked us to 3 other players who didn't come to us!). So basically, as suspected, you might as well ignore everyone and everything and get online on the 1st Feb in future.

 

A couple of years ago the Daily Record I think it was did a transfer rumour tracker. Ranked all the papers; the mirror came out top with something like 5% of their rumours coming good. Everyone else was in the 1-3% range. If I remember rightly that had to resort to 2 decimal places.

[Block109'er]

As for the rest of the season, I don't think we'll finish in the top six and I don't think we'll win the Europa league, either. Without those two things, I don't think FSG will be compelled to give Kenny the job and, further to that, for the first time I don't think Pepe Reina stays beyond the summer. In fact we just gave any team interested a step-by-step guide on how to sign him.

 

It's those last two things which have left me feeling particularly despondent.

 

Christ, cheer up!

 

I've been going through every emotion possible this last few days over this this and yes I'm also bitterly dissappointed that Torres has gone, not because I feel that we are now any weaker given the last 48 hours business but because I fucking loved the guy and turned out to be a fraud.

 

I realised this morning that the Fernando Torres that I was mourning is not the 'man' who has been turning out for us over the last 18 months.

 

But now the dust in settling on this I certainly do think we will be finishing in the Top 6 and although Suarez can't play I think we've every chance of going close in the EL.

 

I mean come on, it's not the CL now is it? I can't see any teams left in the competition that we cannot beat nor should be afraid of.

 

As for Kenny, I think that's going to be a very short meeting indeed come May when they all sit around the table.

[Cij]

Whilst it has been an exceptionally traumatic transfer window due to Torres’ despicable behaviour, it was also an intriguing test of FSG’s mettle. The general feeling appears to be that the new owners reacted well in trying circumstances and it is encouraging that they were prepared to back Kenny (notwithstanding his “caretaker” status) with significant transfer funds rather than hoarding it until the summer.

 

We succeeded in bringing in two of the most promising young strikers in Europe and, despite some legitimate reservations about the transfer fees, it will be very interesting to see what sort of impact Carroll and Suarez will make now that they have moved up a level.

 

If it is true that our transfer targets were Suarez (24), Carroll (22), Adam (25) Young (25) and Richards (22) it looks like FSG are proceeding with their stated aim of investing in youth. I think the idea is to build up the squad over the next 2 – 3 years with a view to regaining a Champions’ League place. In order to achieve this goal we will need to dispose of the likes of Jovanovic, Poulsen, Kuyt, Krygiakos, Maxi, Cole and Aurelio in order to lower the wage bill and free up first team opportunities for players with a younger age profile. We already have the likes of Gulacsi, Kelly, Wilson, Ayala, Shelvey, Spearing, Pacheco, and Ngog pushing for squad places with more quality homegrown players to follow.

 

It was disappointing that we did not manage to address the other glaring shortcomings in our team – the general lack of pace, natural left footers, midfield steel and aerial ability / pace at the back. If we are going to progress Comolli is going to have to earn his corn and unearth some quality players at reasonable prices. It doesn’t take a particularly keen eye to spot Suarez and Carroll’s potential and we can’t afford to pay those kinds of prices for the rest of the players we need. The owners have opted to splash out large amounts of cash up front to ingratiate themselves with our fans but I am not convinced that this trend will necessarily continue. We could do with finding a Vermaelen or a Vidic too.

 

I suspect that we will pick up Sylvian Marveaux on a Bosman to provide a pacy, left footed option on the wing. I hope that we will then look at players like Mamadou Sakho (PSG), Douglas (FC Twente), Blaise Matuidi (St. Etienne), Yann M’Vila (Rennes), Balazs Dzsudzsak (PSV), Marko Marin (Weder Bremen) or Neymar (Santos) – the young players showing signs of being the superstars of the future. That being said, the best signings we could make in the immediate future are Kenny Dalglish and Steve Clarke on long term contracts as soon as possible. Then I would believe our future is really bright.

[llego]

“So much for Moneyball” « Craven Cottage Newsround

 

“So much for Moneyball”

Filed under: General — rich @ 8:50 am

 

Andy Carroll’s £35 million move has surprised a lot of people, particularly in the light of the Liverpool owners’ reputations as careful, smarter investors. NESV, as you’ll know, famously took over baseball’s Boston Red Sox and won a long awaited World Series, and in so doing used what were termed “moneyball” principles.

 

People were unsure what that might mean in a footballing context, and they certainly didn’t expect *this*. I’m not really surprised.

 

A (fairly) quick overview of Moneyball: this was a book written by a gifted writer called Michael Lewis. Lewis had extraordinary access to the Oakland Athletics baseball club, run by a man named Billy Beane. Despite not spending much money relative to his peers, Beane was able to consistently win lots of games. How? Among other things, sabermetrics.

 

Sabermetrics is a term invented by Bill James, a compiler of statistics and another good writer. Saber comes from the acronym SABR, the Society of American Baseball Research. Metrics is measurement. Sabermetrics. James and others counted a lot of things in the 70s (baseball is a series of countable actions: pitch, hit, run, pitch, swing, miss, etc). James et al *proved* a number of things about the game that were not then accepted within the game. Proved them, beyond any doubt.

 

But the ideas didn’t catch on. Baseball insiders complained that these stat geeks hadn’t played the game, and should spend more time at the ballpark rather than sitting in their mothers’ basements (this still comes up as a put-down, even now). So these ideas, which could have transformed the way teams ran themselves, didn’t take.

 

James had a hard-core underground following though, and self-published four annuals of his writing. He got a book deal and from 1982 to 1988 published his work each off-season. It remains fantastic stuff, combining hard analysis with a very readable style.

 

His readership grew and in time some of these readers acquired positions of responsibility within baseball. One of these men was Sandy Alderson, who ended up running the Oakland A’s. In time he hired Billy Beane, and suggested Beane read James’ work.

 

Something clicked in Beane’s mind: of course! Beane’s revelation was so strong because he himself had been exactly the kind of player that teams overvalued: tall, athletic, handsome (some baseball scouts looked for ‘the good face’ which they thought showed character, resourcefulness, etc), super-fast. Scouts would see Beane in action and drool. Never mind that he couldn’t really hit a baseball.

 

Beane realised that actual production on the field was everything, and with James’ analyses, found better ways to measure this production. In the old days players would be valued by their speed, by their batting average (how often they hit the ball safely) and something called RBI (how often they hit the ball and a teammate scored), but these things didn’t tell us enough about a player: sure they helped, and the good players would have good scores in these measures, but so too would some bad players. What’s more, a lot of good players would not score well on these measures. They might be slow, or miss the ball too often (but when they did hit it, they hit it a long way). These players would be undervalued by baseball’s decision makers who were conditioned into an old school mindset.

 

So Beane sought out players who didn’t look like athletes and who were productive in ways that the mainstream didn’t value highly enough. By doing this he could put together an effective team on the cheap. This is a gross oversimplification, of course, but the point holds and the method worked: Oakland won a lot of games.

 

Michael Lewis went to find out more, and wrote a book outlining a lot of these methods, profiling a number of Beane’s players and telling a really engaging story. He called the book Moneyball, and a phenomenon was born. Old school baseball types rejected the book, and one prominent commentator (Joe Morgan, effectively (and frighteningly similar to) Alan Shearer) even denounced Billy Beane for writing such a book bragging about his accomplishments! (of course Beane had done no such thing, and didn’t even know what Lewis was writing.)

 

John Henry, a wealthy man through his work in the financial markets, was also (I believe) aware of Bill James. The financial markets are a bit like baseball in their search for undervalued assets, so James, Beane and the Moneyball phenomenon resonated with him. And if Beane could be so successful without spending much, what might be achieved with the appropriate financial backing? Henry and his team bought the Red Sox and went about finding out.

 

They hired a 28 year old to run the side, Theo Epstein. Epstein knew Bill James’ work inside out, but hired James as a consultant anyway. He spent money, lots of it, and after 100 years of winning nothing, the Red Sox soon won the World Series. Moneyball vindicated!

 

Kind of. The Red Sox took things to a new level. A quick look at their roster of players shows that they used some Moneyball techniques: First baseman Kevin Millar wasn’t wanted in Major League Baseball and was just about to sign on in Japan before the Red Sox intervened; Mark Bellhorn was a scrappy player who had his ups and downs, but who certainly wasn’t considered championship calibre before joining Boston. But he did all the important things that people don’t notice well. David Ortiz, who walloped a lot of big hits (literally and figuratively) for the Red Sox, had been let go by the Minnesota Twins. He could barely run, but could hit a baseball miles. Bill Mueller, the third baseman, was like a Bellhorn but better. Manny Ramirez, their eccentric outfielder, was mightily productive but hard to control. The Sox kept faith, happy to let his work on the field do the talking. The pitchers were good in anyone’s eyes, but it’s worth noting that the ‘missing piece of the jigsaw’ was Curt Schilling, a player for whom the Sox had to pay a lot to acquire.

 

Moneyball? I think you’d define it as making decisions for a reason. They bought in a number of good, undervalued players, but realised that this alone isn’t enough to win things, so supplemented these core parts with superstar talents like Curt Schilling, players who were among the best paid in the league.

 

Let’s bring this back to Liverpool. One of the issues NESV had with the current squad, and also Roy Hodgson’s signings, is that the players are all relatively old. Older players can be over-valued: they have built up big contracts but are probably past their peak; they are trading on their fame now, not necessarily on the ability that earned this fame in the first place. So there’ll be a big emphasis on young talent, talent coming into its peak and which might then be usefully sold on in due course. (The Torres deal is terrific for them, too: a player who was briefly great, but has since only been good, but who still commands the fee of a great player. Torres = Carroll + Suarez? Yep. Torres might very well become great again, Carroll might never become great at all, but the equation does balance and under the circumstances (Torres wanting to leave for one) it feels like a good move).

 

Andy Carroll makes sense for Liverpool on a few of levels. One: he’s young. In five years he’ll be in his prime (or perhaps past his prime, but near enough that someone will still want him) and can then be sold on for good money again. If transfer fees exceed inflation (as surely they will, especially if there’s an economic recovery) then there’s a fair chance that a good amount of that £35million can be recouped. Especially because two: he should age well. He hasn’t played a lot of games for his age, and his skillset is one that ought to hold up. Three: he’s unique. Seriously, Carroll has an ability that not many others have. He’s phenomenal in the air, has a decent touch, and appears to have the instincts to make the most of his skills. He’s what Peter Crouch should have been. Four: (ack) he’ll enhance the brand. He’s John Charles, John Toshack, a most English of English centre-forwards (and yes, I’ve just picked two Welsh players…). Liverpool fans are nothing if not backward looking: they’ll love their all action number 9. He’ll make the club a fortune in shirt sales around the world.

 

So there are reasons to spend big on Carroll. No, he’s not undervalued at all; but he’s not without value, and as a signing (especially given the context of receiving so much for Torres) he makes sense. Liverpool’s owners will have done the analysis and will know that success costs money. The more you spend the better you get. From there it will have been a question of working out how to spend that money. You can buy seven five million players for £35 million, but then you end up no better off; you can buy three ten million players and maybe that does make a difference; but if you think you have found premium talent, talent that is not available from any other source, you have to pay up. With Carroll and Suarez Liverpool have paid up; they’ll know what they’re doing here, and just as Chelsea and City had to spend away to kick start their ascendency, so too are John Henry’s team. He needs defenders now and a few more £10 million types dotted around the pitch to make this really pay off, but the recovery is on. It’s not Moneyball in the “undervalued player” sense, but it’s Moneyball in the “we know what we’re doing” sense.

[derrickt]

I have a question to ask regarding New Financial Rule. How much can we spent during the summer? Does it depend on our net or include some cash injected by the owners? The new financial rule kick of this summer right?

[andrejwout]

im pretty pleased with our business, despite crazy fee

[andrejwout]

..though wingers might be nice...even one

[andrejwout]

and a holding player,erm maybe a fullback and cb and and and

[andrejwout]

oh and proper backup gk....god theres a lot of work to be done really

[BigMike]

The more I think about who we got in, and who we were after, the more I can see shades of 89/90 in Kenny's plan for spending.

 

Suarez = Beardsley

Carroll = Aldo/Rushy

Young = Barnes

Adam = Houghton

 

Especially wierd when you consider that Young is the choice for winger as both he and Barnes came to prominence at Watford.

[me1]

The 'Moody Blues'....

[MLB]

I'm happy as I think we've emerged from it stronger and will continue to get stronger. The future is bright.

[Vivaldo]

All in all we've made probably the best we could out of a bad situation these past few days.

 

I don't want to waste effort talking about him as he's no longer a concern of this club. There is only one remaining concern over him and that is making sure he get's the living shit kicked out of him on Sunday.

 

For a while now we've been crying out for the striker problem to be addressed. I'd argue that today we are a hell of a lot stronger in that department than we where on the 1st January. We've signed two young, hungry strikers for big money.

 

In Suarez we have someone proven on the World stage, and prolific in a strong but still inferior Dutch league. But his class is there for all to see, you only have to watch one of the many youtube videos to see that this lad could be a superstar.

 

Carrol is a different prospect all together. His Premier League experience is confined to half a season, but in that half a season he's been a revelation. We are very much signing him for his potential. Before the transfer window if my mates asked me about signings I said I'd love us to sign Carrol, but I never thought I'd see him leaving Newcastle. I've been well impressed with him this year, and to me although people label him as a battering ram there is so much more to his game. Yes he's one big strong ugly nasty fucker who will batter the shit out of defences, but if you watch his game he is also a very very talented footballer. He is deceptively fast and he can strike a ball from distance as we seen back in December. In the air he was dominant against us and had Kyrgiakos and Skrtel in his pocket, likewise against most teams he's played against. I believe he has all the aspects in his game which could eventually make him an absolute monster of a player in a few years time. I'm delighted we've managed to sign him, probably the only English player who I'd have liked to see us sign.

 

We've also took the goalscoring burden away from one man. Both Suarez and Carrol know where the goal is, and both could potentially compliment eachother perfectly. The strikeforce has height, pace, bucket loads of strength, goalscoring nouse and also a nasty mean streak. You won't see these two getting bullied out of matches thats for sure. I'm made up that we've bought two younger lads because both will be hungry and both will have plenty to prove. They also have their best years ahead of them. They want to play for the club and they have subscribed to the new Liverpool under Kenny Dalglish. We want players who are committed. If you don't fancy it any more then thanks for your efforts and out you go. These two want to be here.

 

Before people talk about the fees involved, we should remember one thing. For years we've been crying out for a board who will back the manager even if it means paying over the odds. Kenny wanted these two. FSG would have been well within their rights to pull out of the deals and assess a cheaper alternative but they haven't. They backed their manager's instinct and paid the money to secure his number 1 targets. No Andriy Voronin's or Jermaine Pennant's. They asked us to judge them on their actions and in my opinion they can only be complimented on the past few days work. We've stood firm on selling that Spanish lad until a replacement was lined up, when our previous board would have took the cash regardless. We've ensured Chelsea paid double what they originally bid and not been screwed. We may all have doubts over Suarez and especially Carrol but we need to have faith in Kenny. If he didn't believe they would prive worthwhile investments he would not have allowed the club to spend over £50m on them. If they're good enough for him then they'll do for me.

 

I think the striker issue was our pressing concern this window. We've now addressed that. Our defence in recent weeks is showing signs of suring up, and although the wide midfield roll is still a problem I'm confident that under Kenny's leadership we'll improve and have enough to get by until the Summer. Yesterday's actions have ensured that the re-building job is now not as big as it potentially could have been.

 

Can everyone just read this post and think real hard about what it actually means. I think those droning on about the fee should embrace it rather than play FM with it.

 

Fucking enjoy it!

[tenner]

I like that we were also trying to sign Ashley Young, Charlie Young and Micah Richards. I'm looking forward to Carroll and Suarez dovetailing and I'm looking forward to us signing some top players in the summer.

 

It's ace to have Kenny back managing us.

 

Pity we could not bring in a winger to provide crosses into the box for new strikers.

[KopOut]

I know we had Torres + Suarez on Friday. Now we have Suarez + Carroll....so disappointed. And how many managers do we need before we buy a winger with pace.

 

Kuyt will be gone next. Reasonable money for him will finance a winger, however, Kelly and Johnson are being groomed. We may not need wingers.

[s(k)aturation]

Kuyt will be gone next. Reasonable money for him will finance a winger, however, Kelly and Johnson are being groomed. We may not need wingers.

 

Not sure. Even "reasonable money" for him might be a stretch.

[stevienando]

"Fill holes at above market prices when necessary” - part of John W Henry's strategy according to book "How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart..."

[kiwanis]

I have no problem paying top prices for outstanding individuals; Carroll is not - LFC massively overpaid for a high-risk and totally unproven player. We have been mugged. Proven player like Edin Džeko (1 in 2 scoring ratio for club and country-has played in a league winning team) cost less (and even then Man City overpaid).

[kiwanis]

LFC's new transfer policy - Reckless, Shambolic & Chaotic. Or perhaps we should be all cool about every other set of fans taking the piss over how LFC have be "done" over.

[seven of eleven]

I worked out why kenny has moved glen to the left back spot its to do i think about how glen sucks at defending on his left peg.

 

So he moves him to left back so when people cut inside he defends better on right peg and if they go down outside he prob feels unless its like one hell of a cross we can handle it.

 

So he might keep glen there.

 

If so we might not need left back we might just need left and right wingers and CB if so we can really go agressive in summer.

[seven of eleven]

LFC's new transfer policy - Reckless, Shambolic & Chaotic. Or perhaps we should be all cool about every other set of fans taking the piss over how LFC have be "done" over.

 

Fuck off manc / bitter who ever you are , back the manager or fuck off no one wants to hear your BS. :telloff:

 

You don't have a choice in what our owners do or what players our manager picks you like it or go support someone else thats the hard line of it.

 

We as fans/supporters have a role to fulfill and thats as the title states support the club/manager/players in that order.If we can do that well we give them something to play for and in some cases can be worth more then money.But its always been liverpool way to support the club and manager in what they think is right unless we see them going out to hurt the club we support them thats all.

 

Sometimes i used to think i knew more then evans and sometimes more then rafa.99% of time i knew more then hodgson but when you got a man a legend like king kenny in charge there is no way any of us are going to know more then him so ffs sit back and enjoy the ride people because I trust he will do the right things more then the wrong things and he will 100% win us silverwear if he is backed by owners 100%.

Edited February 2, 2011 by seven of eleven

[Wor Horse]

Do people still not realise Torres shafted us? We never had "Suarez + Torres" as Toserr has wanted out for about 12 months now, because of that Signing Carroll was vital.

 

Oh and a panic buy would be Johan Elmander or Emile Heskey for £10m. not someone with 11 premier league goals in 6 months and so much raw potential.

 

Moaning fucking bastards, you'd think it was your money.

[lucozade]

@kiwanis

 

We didn't pay too much for Carroll. I know, I know you're never ever going to be able to accept that but look at it this way:

 

1. Modern football is a business

2. It is a branch of the entertainment industry

3. When do people spend the most money? When they are entertained

4. Have we been selling out all games this season? no.

5. What has been the impact on merchandising sales of fans lack of excitement, entertainment and engagement?

6. What is the merchandising equation between winning and sales

7. What has been the impact on the finances of the club of returning the King? (I am willing to bet that FSG have been delighted and pleasantly surprised to find his value in merchandise and LFC TV subs has been fan-fucking-tastic.) Backing him to succeed is a case of spending money to make more money.

8. You can only buy what is available. Carroll's value was higher to us because he solved a problem that we had right now, right now.

9. The atmosphere and the business impact of retaining Torres after the Transfer Request was leaked by Chelsea would have been incredibly bad commercially. Who was going to buy a single shirt? Were fans going to want to pay their hard earned to go and watch him sulk? Also gloom always translates to sales down.

10. The club had to find the best striker they could who they could actually buy now so as to pursue a spot in Europe because their are financial benefits of making it.

11. Buying Carroll in the way we did guaranteed we got him, other clubs would have bid and the price might not have been all that different, if we were in for him under different circumstances. And we might not have got him.

 

 

The other thing to consider is that some people are saying the deal was for 30 mill and we don't know how it was structured etc so we don't know how much if any of that value is contingent on the club achieving certain things and carroll playing x amount of games etc.

 

The idea that FSG just woke up and decided to do something completely nuts with their money is.. well.. silly.

 

It's going to be a really exciting time to support the club in the coming months and beyond. We are going to be entertained and it's been a little while since our entertainment factor was a positive and not a fucking dark depressing soap-opera instead.

 

The King already said there will be more money to spend in the summer.

 

And you know maybe the team will do a tour to the US and FSG will sell out a few big stadiums and pay for Carroll that way. There's a lot of ways to skin a cat and I'm not too worried that FSG will have looked after their own commercial interests in this and done what makes sense.

 

I think you are panicking because you think this is the last 35m we're ever going to have. It's not. This club has a huge world-wide fanbase and has been badly run but there is strength in the financial fundamentals and we can afford to make big signings, we can afford to act like a big club, because we fucking are!

[Unrighteous]

I have no problem paying top prices for outstanding individuals; Carroll is not - LFC massively overpaid for a high-risk and totally unproven player. We have been mugged. Proven player like Edin Džeko (1 in 2 scoring ratio for club and country-has played in a league winning team) cost less (and even then Man City overpaid).

 

LFC's new transfer policy - Reckless, Shambolic & Chaotic. Or perhaps we should be all cool about every other set of fans taking the piss over how LFC have be "done" over.

 

You need to fuck off back to where ever you were posting before. You're spouting some massive shite.

[Unrighteous]

Newcastle could get relegated on the back of selling Carroll considering he's like 70% of their offense.

 

They got robbed if they do go down from it all.