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piscinin

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About piscinin

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  1. piscinin

    Chemical Weapons

    The cost of a unitary action lacking even the consensus of the UK is far less than a bit of talking out of both sides of your mouth while projecting yourself as the reluctant world police force against the backdrop of your nobel prize. And you're right about Plan A, but Cameron fucked that right up. So they scrabble around looking for different ways to look good.
  2. piscinin

    Chemical Weapons

    All I'm saying is when the war is finished, less people will be dying. And that is good. Alas, ending the war isn't really on anyone's agenda, but hey ho, geo-politics and all that.
  3. piscinin

    Chemical Weapons

    Relative to an ongoing civil war you could argue that just about any outcome is good.
  4. piscinin

    Chemical Weapons

    Sorry, i'd switched to epistemology.
  5. piscinin

    Chemical Weapons

    That's the downside of an intervention full stop. And yeah, I'm splitting hairs, but the hair splitting was the point.
  6. piscinin

    Chemical Weapons

    Put it into context. What's the downside of a false positive? We impair the capability of a guy who has used these things in the past. Doesn't seem so bad does it? Now ask yourself what is the actual significance of this thing of which we are 65% sure. Has the USUK decided to intervene on the basis of this # alone. Of course it hasn't, it decided back a while ago that we would intervene, that's why the US/EU etc have quietly been lifting arms embargoes etc. So in actuality the 65% is only significant to the extent that it's sufficient to bolster the propaganda case to execute a plan that had already been drawn up.
  7. piscinin

    Chemical Weapons

    Absolutely it is, but the danger is that in such scenarios 100% is unattainable, and the people demanding 100% don't understand that. So you end up either with gridlock, or making decisions of the basis of factors about which you can be certain and which are almost always incidental.
  8. piscinin

    Chemical Weapons

    Yeah, he messed up last week by alluding to scenarios in which they would put "boots on the ground". To be fair, he hasn't got a strong hand to play given the heightened skepticism and the increased efforts by people to fact-check his case to death. People are looking for 100% certainty in an environment where 65% is as good as axoimatic.
  9. piscinin

    Chemical Weapons

    It's easy to get swept away in the flow of the moral crusade news-stream, but these things are never so simple that they can be reduced to a single dimension like that. The 'moral crusade' is just that subset of interests around which USUK thought they could engineer consent. Most people are well aware that there are as many motivations for intervention as there are people sticking their oar in. The dance is the dance of Miliband. He broke the assumption that this could proceed on a quasi-consensual basis and so now we are in a process of discovering post-bliar, post-bush, post-iraq, how does this all work? Impeachment isn't a realistic proposition and TBH he's a politician playing it like every other politician plays it. Exactly as there profession requires them to.
  10. We did. We took their top guy, Malcolm Elias. Pissed him around for a little while and he gave up and buggered off to fulham.
  11. The problem is Brooking is completely unqualified to lead two culturally incompatible organizations, who are both pulling in opposite directions to a cohesive and coherent solution. Kicking a ball up and down upton park does not prepare you for that. Machiavelli would struggle. Brooking, waste of time. As results have demonstrated.
  12. piscinin

    Chemical Weapons

    I don't think he does want to be involved per se. He's prepared to get involved as befits americas role as the world's policeman. But as he showed with Iraq and Afghanistan he isn't going to mess around when there's no benefit. If he'd just wanted to kill a bunch of people, he'd have signed an executive order weeks ago. Instead he's thrown it out to the wider community and said if you want me to do your dirty work, show me.
  13. piscinin

    Chemical Weapons

    Nah, what you see as loss of self-assurance is just not caring enough about Syria to spend the political capital. If those missiles had landed in Israel syria would be ex-syria already and China and Russia would have done bugger all, because there is bugger all they can do. This Obama dude, just ain't all that big on killing people for the sake of it.
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