Cij

Despite having the highest xG across the league in the first two games, we have drawn twice and that is mainly due to poor finishing. We only managed to get 17% of our shots on target last night, which is pretty pathetic. It is not difficult to understand why we are struggling to find the net if four out of every five shots are off target. We have three goals to show for fifty shots so far this season! The first step to improving those figures is to start testing opposition keepers by getting the ball on target more often. A curled effort to the far top corner is fuck all use if it sails three foot wide as you can't pick up a rebound from that... Separately, the build-up play was much too pedestrian against Palace and Fulham . The centre backs were too slow and inaccurate moving the ball across the back line and into midfield. Passing in those areas is not about moving the ball but rather moving their players and changing their defensive shape. We failed to stretch Palace as we should have as we didn't pass it well enough until Joe Gomez was introduced. This was compounded by Fabinho's repeated failure to receive the ball on the half-turn, which meant it was constantly recycled with no real purpose. The only midfielder consistently adopting a progressive body position when showing for passes was Harvey Elliott. This is where we missed a Thiago or Gini as they are excellent at that part of the game. I having growing concerns about whatever tactical experiment we are employing with Trent. Since last Christmas he has clearly been instructed to position himself as an auxiliary midfielder when we attack. However, this change coincided with his productivity reducing markedly - he only made half the number of assists in the second half of last season relative to the first. We have lost a lot of width by him coming inside and that is making us easier to defend against as the opposition can keep their defence and midfield narrower. The lack of overlapping runs means Salah is having to beat an extra player to get his shots off and I suspect that has contributed to his reduced goal return. Trent is also crossing the ball from a deeper position, which is much easier to defend. We won't be buying more players at this stage so the solution to our current problems lie in getting back to basics. Full backs high and wide again and a big effort to ensure more shots are aimed within the frame of the goal. Our start to the season has been frustrating as fuck and the less said about Darwin Nunez's brain fart the better.

El Hadji Diouf - his performances for Senegal at the 2002 World Cup garnered a lot of praise and created considerable hype about his impending arrival at Liverpool. As it transpired, he was one of the most loathsome pricks ever to sign for the club. Spitting at a Celtic fan and a child supporter of Boro, robbing Mellor's debut penalty opportunity, constantly ripping Gerrard and Carragher. The man is, was, and always will be a 24 carat dickhead.

I want to preface this by saying I firmly believe Naby Keita is entitled to the presumption of innocence and I have no idea what, if anything, may have happened. It appears that no action will be taken on foot of the investigation conducted by Merseyside Police and that should be the end of the matter. With that said, there is no need for anyone to castigate the complainant given none of us are privy to the full story. People have attacked her and cast doubt upon her claims with the following fallacious arguments: "Naby does not speak English so would not host / attend a party or be capable of offering her £1k" - His English remains poor but Jurgen discussed late last year that he has made great strides in this regard. "Naby does not even live in Formby" - He does and I believe it is in the Freshfields area along with Klopp and Lallana. "His agent's name is Bjorn Bezemer not 'Leo'" - That is quite correct, he shares the same agent as Sadio Mane. However, the complainant only said that she received calls from someone identifying themselves as his agent using the name Leo. Naby's 'entourage' does include a Leo and Baio (not Bayo as noted in her contacts) both of whom are former LFC youth players around the same age as Naby. It is noteworthy that the complainant correctly identified the names of two people in his circle. That does not corroborate her allegations but does suggest she may have met him. "He would have been in the team hotel as we played Manchester United the next day" - Keita was injured for that game and not in the squad. It is most unlikely he traveled to the team hotel. "Why is all of this only coming out six month's later?" - The complainant reported it to police within a very short time as the evidence bag shows it was collected on 23/01/2020 in Salford. I was sceptical about the picture of the evidence bag photo initially but there is nothing on the face of it to suggest it is anything other than what she claims it to be. She appears to have gone public in response to receipt of confirmation no charges would be brought. She clearly feels aggrieved by this decision. ... and so on. All of the above is circumstantial and does not prove anything. However, I am yet to see a single detail proving the complainant is lying. I have no intention of 'white knighting' here but I simply have no clue what did or did not happen as I was not there. The reasonable thing to do is therefore to withhold judgment on her claims whilst affording Naby the benefit of any doubt. She made a complaint, the police took up evidence in Salford where the complainant lived, it was investigated by Merseyside Police, and there was ultimately insufficient evidence to bring a charge. Best to leave it there as a baying mob attacking her is not a good look for the club. If the complainant's claims are false and malicious Naby can pursue an action for defamation and breach of privacy if he wishes. I doubt he needs any of supporters to defend his interests.

Absolutely days of our lives. Lap it up. Team seemed crackers but Jurgen knows. We are a class act. Whatever about the superstars, the likes of Wijnaldum, Robertson and Henderson have the chutzpah and drive to get us over the line. Mane was sublime, Origi is a stone cold legend, and Shaq was class. I have waited my whole life for a team like this. Magic!

Tumescent.

We’re champions of Europe, We’re back up at the top, And it’s all down to one man - his name is Jurgen Klopp, Beat Barca, Bayern, Porto, Spurs, Paris, Napoli, Now you know why Liverpool is the only club for me. Allez, Allez, Allez

You don't need to be clairvoyant to know how this one will go. Jose will set up with a flat back 10 and pad his team out with as many snidey grocks as possible. The first five minutes of the game will see one of his 'forward' players scythe down Mo Salah with a 'clumsy' tackle a la Eto'o on Henderson a few years ago. From there, the fouls will be rotated with a level of even-handedness that Karl Marx could only dream about. Every time they get a throw-in it will appear as though their full-backs are experiencing teething issues on their first day trialing a new set of arms. A number of their forwards will bear the hallmarks of a worrying inner ear infection given their extraordinary lack of balance and susceptibility to gravity any time they get near our box. De Gea will be riddled with indecision about his preferred side of the 6-yard box from which to launch goal kicks into orbit. Lukaku will accidentally land awkwardly on Virgil's ankle after 'contesting' (and losing) one of David's ballooned clearances. Pogba will be lauded repeatedly by the commentary team despite being as useful as a cock flavored lollipop. 'Sign On' will be sung with gusto by the denizens of leafy Longsight and Gorton (and Surrey granted). 'Always The Victim' will also be reprised again and again on the basis that it ABSOLUTELY does not refer to Hillsborough and could never be interpreted as such be any rational member of society. Claims will circulate on social media of phantom graffiti and vandalism in toilets, the entire away end will surreptitously make airplane gestures (which, miraculously, will not be captured by any of the 80,000+ camera phones within the ground), and our supporters will debut the stage version of 'Two Girls, One Cup' to the alleged horror of the spawn of some Manc Orc. In short, I would be extremely pleased with a win.

Whilst I would love us to sign Van Dijk there is an argument to be made that we should move on if we can't agree a deal with Southampton this week. He has been injured for six months and has now had a disrupted pre-season so we have not had an opportunity to confirm he is fully recovered. In reality, he won't be match-fit until towards the end of September at the earliest. Lovren and Gomez are currently injured too so there is the possibility that we will be starting the season with Klavan at centre-half with no cover. I appreciate we would be signing him for five years rather than five weeks but I don't want to scupper our chances of competing for the league this year by being held to ransom by Southampton. Despite their claims, Southampton will not be relishing the prospect of a disgruntled captain having to be re-integrated into their squad and the possibility that they never receive similar offers again if it transpires he has lingering issues due to the ankle injury.

It was strange when the Echo ran various pieces following the end of the season detailing how this was going to be the club’s most extravagant Summer window ever and reaming off various high-profile targets. Bragging about how much money we have inevitably results in selling clubs demanding higher prices? The only logical reason for doing this was to convince our key targets that the club is ambitious and on an upward trajectory. Fine, up to a point. Klopp appears to have successfully persuaded a host of excellent players that this is the place to be – Salah, Van Dijk and Keita in particular – and the onus now very much rests on FSG to get these deals over the line or supporters will turn on them. The club’s bombastic leaks understandably created expectation among fans. Kudos for wrapping up Salah but the rest of the omens are not great. FSG clearly baulked at Southampton’s asking price for Van Dijk. Southampton’s top brass employs a tried and tested approach when it comes to selling their top players in order to keep their own fans onside. They portray themselves as reluctant sellers and force the player to demand a transfer, see Fonte, Lallana, Lovren and Wanyama by way of example. A deal is always done but only when the money is produced. The fact that we publicly backed down was ridiculous. FSG have attempted to be cute by cosying up to Van Dijk in order to alienate other suitors and drive the price down. This has understandably irked Southampton. The same strategy seems to have been adopted with Keita. No problem with that once you follow through with a realistic bid but we appear to be operating in a vacuum. I suspect the post-apology hope is that some other club will act as a stalking horse for Van Dijk and we will match any bid that is accepted. My biggest concern is that Van Dijk and Keita have clearly been identified to address very specific weaknesses in our squad. Van Dijk dominates aerially to a virtually unparalleled degree (he is basically twice as effective as Lovren) which should greatly help with our Achilles’ Heel when defending set pieces. Keita has an incredibly well-rounded game and the closest comparison is Thiago Alcantara. Klopp has long been looking to bring in a ball-carrying midfielder who can pass through the lines – like Dahoud and Zielinski – and Keita excels at this as well as the defensive side. ‘Packing’ is the measures in football analytics for players who assist their teams to break through defensive lines by passing or dribbling. Keita appears to be right up there with Kroos and Thiago in this regard and is tailor-made for puncturing through the low-block defences we struggled against last season. It speaks volumes about FSG’s ambition if they fail to wrap up these deals at this point in the team’s development. Klopp secured Champions League by the skin of his teeth with a bare bones squad last season. That simply won’t cut it next year with all our rivals pushing out the boat this Summer. The right signings might actually allow us compete for the league next year. Perhaps FSG are waiting for bids for Sakho, Moreno, Markovic and the like before pressing on with Van Dijk and Keita but if they are not brought in before the end of the window a backlash will inevitably ensue.

I avoided getting bogged down in departures / loans as we are not privy to the details of any contribution to the wages of players sold or on loan. I was actually nerdy enough to work out the cost of wages for departing players between the start of the club's financial year and their date of disposal but only really wanted to provide a rough explanation for the £42m increase in wages. I believe that agent's fees are amortised as 'signing on fees' under the admin heading in the accounts. The FA disclosed that our payments to agents in the 5-month period from October 2015 to February 2016 totaled £6.6m so we can extrapolate that out to around £15m over the financial year.

The £42m wage bill increase in the most recent accounts really surprised me so I have done a ‘back of a cigarette box’ calculation to see how it has arisen. It goes without saying that the figures won't be entirely accurate as they are not in the public domain but I have done my best to piece it together from the available information. The most obvious category was new signings and the acquisitions of Benteke, Firmino, Clyne, Milner, Ings, Gomez, Bogdan, Grujic, Caulker, Allan and the full time arrival of Origi from Lille will have added slightly north of £26m to the wage bill. We also handed out a lot of new contracts / pay rises in 2015/16 – Coutinho, Henderson, Skrtel, Sakho, Mignolet, Flanagan, Smith, Ibe, Brannagan, Ojo – which when added to Sturridge’s bumper deal in October 2014 would have given an uplift in the order of £11m. Klopp replaced Rodgers in October 2015 and was joined by his backroom team of Buvac and Krawietz. Rodgers’ and his entourage were paid £15.7m by way of ‘redundancy and associated costs’, which are listed separately in the accounts. However, Klopp is reportedly on up to £7m p/a (including bonuses) so it seems reasonable to allow £3m for himself and his team for October 2015 – May 2016. The final £2m appears to relate to the club employing 70 new staff between Commercial / Admin and Ground Staff. At an average salary of £28.5k that seems about right. The upshot of all this activity is that LFC had a wages to turnover ratio of 69% in 2015/16. The Board will not be too worried about that as the new Premier League deal and revamped Main Stand will increase revenues by up to £70m next season. Last Summer’s signing of Mane, Wijnaldum Matip & Co. will have added approximately £21m to the wage bill over the course of their first year, which will probably be pushed up to £25m by the time Lovren and Lallana’s new deals are included. About £18m in wages has already been clawed back by the departure of Skrtel, Allen, Benteke, Illori, Ibe and the rest. My best guess is that LFC's wages to turnover ratio is currently in the ballpark of 60% and we will try to offload Lucas, Sturridge, Manniger, Moreno, Sakho, Wisdom, Flanagan, Bogdan, Ings, Markovic, and possibly Can to free up a further £550k a week in wages for new signings. On that basis, Klopp could make six £90k a week signings this Summer and we’d still end up with a wages to turnover ratio of a very healthy 60%. I suspect Klopp was well aware there would be limited funds to spend in his first few transfer windows (as the club had to fund the Rodgers' payoff etc.) and he used that time to assess the squad thoroughly. He has made a conscious decision to freeze out Sakho, Moreno, Markovic,and Sturridge; presumably to encourage them to move on and provide him with the resources to shape the squad in his own image. I know this stuff bores a lot of people to tears but it actually does provide some insight into what is actually achievable. With Champions League qualification, I would expect the club to spend up to £90m this Summer.

The following table lists the Top 50 most influential players in the world in December 2016. It shouldn't be read literally; Gotze is obviously not better than Messi. The point though is that Dortmund's level drops off more without Gotze than Barca's without Messi. The GI equation also happens to be a pretty good barometer of the best players and when supplemented by scouting should help to sort the wheat from the chaff. All I am trying to illustrate is how 'Moneyball' actually works in practice. This type of information is what is informing Michael Edward's decisions on our transfer targets. Rank Player Team Goalimpact Player Age PeakGI Nationality Previous Rank 1 Mario Götze Borussia Dortmund 216,51 24,50 221,74 Deutschland 3 2 Thomas Müller Bayern München 212,59 27,25 215,05 Deutschland 1 3 Busquets FC Barcelona 207,43 28,42 212,11 Spanien 10 4 Lionel Messi FC Barcelona 203,50 29,42 209,97 Argentinien, Spanien 8 5 Piqué FC Barcelona 199,92 29,83 207,05 Spanien 15 6 Pedro Chelsea FC 199,34 29,33 205,66 Spanien 11 7 Manuel Neuer Bayern München 198,81 30,67 210,94 Deutschland 9 8 Toni Kroos Real Madrid 197,03 26,92 198,87 Deutschland 20 9 Karim Benzema Real Madrid 195,17 28,92 200,82 Frankreich 5 10 Mesut Özil Arsenal FC 193,66 28,17 197,91 Deutschland 2 11 Cesc Fàbregas Chelsea FC 193,65 29,58 200,36 Spanien 6 12 Robert Lewandowski Bayern München 193,29 28,25 197,79 Polen 4 13 David Alaba Bayern München 192,70 24,42 198,13 Österreich 42 14 Marcelo Real Madrid 192,14 28,58 197,12 Brasilien 14 15 Theo Walcott Arsenal FC 192,10 27,75 195,56 England, Barbados 7 16 James Rodríguez Real Madrid 192,00 25,42 194,12 Kolumbien 46 17 Thiago Bayern München 191,19 25,67 192,43 Spanien, Brasilien 172 18 Martin Hinteregger FC Augsburg 190,77 24,25 196,92 Österreich 24 19 Neymar FC Barcelona 190,51 24,83 194,61 Brasilien 47 20 Víctor Valdés Middlesbrough FC 190,20 34,92 199,67 Spanien 31 21 Toby Alderweireld Tottenham Hotspur 189,54 27,75 193,07 Belgien 13 22 Jérôme Boateng Bayern München 189,53 28,25 193,97 Deutschland 52 23 Mats Hummels Bayern München 188,09 28,00 192,04 Deutschland 18 24 Holger Badstuber Bayern München 186,01 27,75 189,48 Deutschland 175 25 Kevin Kampl Bayer Leverkusen 184,73 26,17 185,02 Slowenien, Deutschland 29 26 Gianluigi Buffon Juventus 184,24 38,83 184,61 Italien 102 27 Bartra Borussia Dortmund 184,10 25,92 184,51 Spanien 246 28 Dani Carvajal Real Madrid 183,88 24,92 187,74 Spanien 221 29 Koke Atletico Madrid 183,69 24,92 187,52 Spanien 198 30 Ángel Di María Paris Saint-Germain 183,49 28,83 188,87 Argentinien 40 31 Eden Hazard Chelsea FC 183,46 25,92 183,80 Belgien 41 32 Iker Casillas FC Porto 183,16 35,50 191,28 Spanien 55 33 Yaroslav Rakitskiy Shakhtar Donetsk 182,95 27,33 185,63 Ukraine 54 34 Gregory van der Wiel Fenerbahce 182,88 28,83 188,32 Niederlande, Curaçao 44 35 Henrikh Mkhitaryan Manchester United 182,71 27,83 186,47 Armenien 35 36 Alex Teixeira Jiangsu Sainty 182,54 26,92 184,36 Brasilien 264 37 Luis Suárez FC Barcelona 182,02 29,83 189,19 Uruguay 59 38 Cristiano Ronaldo Real Madrid 181,92 31,83 200,52 Portugal 17 39 Siem de Jong PSV Eindhoven 181,08 27,83 184,80 Niederlande 75 40 İlkay Gündoğan Manchester City 180,64 26,08 180,86 Deutschland 150 41 Xherdan Shaqiri Stoke City 180,58 25,17 183,56 Schweiz 284 42 Arturo Vidal Bayern München 180,57 29,50 187,19 Chile 23 43 Petr Čech Arsenal FC 180,11 34,50 189,85 Tschechien 32 44 Luuk de Jong PSV Eindhoven 179,64 26,25 180,18 Niederlande 130 45 Jeremain Lens Fenerbahce 179,12 29,00 184,88 Niederlande, Suriname 43 46 André Ramalho 1. FSV Mainz 05 178,82 24,83 183,03 Brasilien 259 47 Bastian Schweinsteiger Manchester United 178,74 32,33 199,90 Deutschland 25 48 Isco Real Madrid 178,35 24,58 183,17 Spanien 302 49 Marcel Schmelzer Borussia Dortmund 178,22 28,83 183,71 Deutschland 100 50 Stefan Ilsanker RB Leipzig 178,13 27,58 181,24 Österreich 12

That isn't quite how to read it Strontium. GI shows the relative benefit over the alternative; so the numbers show that Mignolet was significantly better than the alternatives (Brad Jones / Danny Ward) but his development has under-performed what was expected of him. He should have reached 166 but only managed 144 at his peak. He is basically a CL quality keeper but not an elite one. Sakho and Henderson were two of our best performers and have reached their potential. They are both CL level footballers which strikes me as correct. Pity about the drugs and messing from Mamadou but there you go. There is a reason why Klopp has kept Lucas and this is perhaps explained by these figures. He is not our best player but has a positive impact when he plays and is therefore reliable. That particular chart omits Lovren - who is rated slightly worse than Sakho - and Coutinho.

This was the GI Rankings of our squad in January 2016. Despite being based on an equation, it strikes me as a pretty accurate assessment. We only had 8 players with a GI Rank above 130, which definitely wasn't sufficient for CL qualification. Benteke is a slightly above average Premier League footballer at best and was never worth £32.5m. Caulker was not of Premier League standard, making him a pointless signing. Joe Allen was Champions League level, as was illustrated by his performance for Wales in the Summer. However, his injury record made him a bit of liability and not worth persevering with. Ibe was just about Premier League level and there was virtually no prospect of him mirroring Sterling's development. Firmino has actually bucked the trend this season and performed above expectations so his GI has been adjusted accordingly this season - he is now of CL standard. The surprising one for me was Clyne. I always rated him as a more than decent PL full back but perhaps I overvalue his contribution based on some of the shit we have had to endure over the years!

I agree and hope an algorithm like this is simply used to identify players worth a further look by scouts or to rule out targets which are 'overvalued' by the management team / scouts (it could have eliminated Benteke and Carroll as potential signings for example) as part of a multi-stage process.

Just my own views Woolster. When you check the players in which the usual reliable sources have confirmed we hold an interest, they all have a high GI rating. I can't state as a fact LFC use Goalimpact specifically but there is too much of a correlation for the club not to be employing a very similar algorithm. It is definitely much closer to the truth than the simplistic term 'Moneyball'. Your point on Swansea makes sense as Llorente and Narsingh are both signings who chime with this sort of approach.

‘Moneyball’ is just a media buzzword and what Liverpool actually appear to be using to evaluate potential transfers is an algorithm known as ‘Goalimpact’, which was created around 2004 by a German physicist. It statistically measures the extent to which a player has contributed to the goal difference per minute of his team. The basic stats that Match of the Day, Sky and WhoScored focus upon - such as tackles, completed passes, goals and assists – play no part in the formula. They have little value as they are so subjective; why should a player be penalised if a teammate fails to control an excellent pass or misses a sitter laid on a plate? Instead, Goalimpact (“GI”) employs a mathematical equation to evaluate how much more likely a team is to win if an individual is selected in the team (and the impact that player will have upon the club’s points total at the end of the season if he plays every game). Players with a current GI rating of around 110 are Premier League quality, 130 is Champions League level and 170+ is elite. Basically, Goalimpact ascribes a numeric value to reflect the ‘influence’ that a specific player has on the goals scored and conceded by his team while he is on the pitch. It also predicts what his peak GI Rating will be at age 26. The more games played by a player during their career, the more accurate the GI rating. Wijnaldum is a perfect illustration of the model in action. I could not fathom why the club pursued him out of all the options available until I learned he was ranked 17th in the world on the GI index in April 2015 (182). Liverpool fans endlessly debate what exactly he brings to the table but there is pretty much universal agreement he offers more than Emre Can and the team performs significantly better with him in it. GI does not explain precisely why a team is more or less successful whenever a particular player is included but does objectively determine the extent to which the team’s performance is affected. It therefore provides a much better insight into actions which are difficult to quantify like positioning, marking, tracking, and creation of space than traditional ‘on the ball’ statistics. Our best performers this season on a GI basis have been Mane, Henderson, Wijnaldum and Lallana. The fact that two are new signings is probably no coincidence. FSG infamously favour a statistical approach to player trading and it is little wonder they like GI as a metric. The creator, Jorg Seidel, recently selected groups of young players using his algorithm and benchmarked their increases in value against the Transfermarkt website to show its predictive capabilities. The returns on investment ranged from 67% to 145%; this is the prism through which investors like FSG determine value. It allows them to clinically evaluate whether a player has conformed to expectations and added to the performance of the team. Until I stumbled across GI I could not work out the common thread between our recent transfer targets; Konoplyanka (c. 138 when we were linked), Gotze (200), Draxler (), Dembele, Teixeira, Brandt. Their backgrounds and career achievements are so disparate that it seemed impossible to draw any comparison. However, they all have excellent GI rankings. In fact, Brandt and Gotze’s ratings are staggeringly high and it is therefore little wonder they attracted our attention. Sadio Mane’s GI rank is 177 and that is the territory Brandt is currently projected to reach. Goalimpact is by no means a secret in the football world and goes a long way towards explaining why our targets so often mirror Dortmund and Spurs; similar tools are being used to inform decisions on transfers at various clubs around Europe. Wolfsburg, Southampton and the Red Bull clubs have used this approach to excellent effect. Don’t be surprised to see us linked to Martin Hinteregger (Augsburg @ 190), Ilsanker (178), Werner, Keita, Sabitzer (Red Bull Leipzig), Kolasinac (Schalke) or Brandt (Leverkusen @ 142 presently) this Summer. The full GI Index is a closely guarded secret but the Hamburg-based company that produces it periodically releases limited information through Twitter and its website. I have no doubt that the GI Index rankings from 20 – 300 would provide a very clear picture of our targets over coming transfer windows if you focused on players under 26. TL;DR Goalimpact is how we scout players. If a player linked to us does not have a GI rating of 120+ we probably are not buying him – certainly not for any serious money. We need an average GI in excess of 135 to have a good shout of Champions’ League qualification.

Forward: Lacazette, Belotti (Torino), Icardi, Andre Silva (Porto), Berardi (Sassuolo), Timo Werner (RB Leipzig), Dolberg (Ajax) Winger: Lemar (Monaco), Forsberg (RB Leipzig), Insigne (Napoli), Salah (Roma), Brandt, Promes, Larsson (Heerenveen) Midfielder: Dahoud, Naby Keita (RB Leipzig), Tolisso (Lyon), Pellegrini (Sassuolo) Defensive Midfield: Bakayoko (Monaco), Geis (Schalke), Danillo (Porto) These are the players under 26 from across Europe who have been putting in performances which merit attention and are at clubs likely to do business with us at the right price. We need a centre forward, winger and possibly two midfielders to add depth next season if we have any ambitions of challenging for the league or sustaining a run in Europe. The problem is I have little faith in FSG’s willingness or ability to attract the type of players required. This Summer is key for FSG; they need to back the manager after a number of lean transfer windows or the supporters will turn on them. Quality upgrades on Sturridge, Ings, Lucas and Stewart alone would transform the squad. This season has shown that our first XI can compete with the best in the league but we lack the depth required to sustain a title run. Klopp is clearly an excellent manager who can develop players and make his team more than the sum of its parts. The onus is therefore on FSG to back him with the necessary tools. He has provided an excellent return overall for FSG on the deals he has made so far and I can’t see supporters exercising much forbearance if his efforts to improve us are hamstrung by the owners’ parsimony. All the indications are that FSG are positioning for a sale as their efforts have been directed towards maximising profits for the past few seasons. I really hope our ambitions as supporters are not thwarted by their pursuit of their own financial agenda. Chasing ‘value’ by triggering low release clauses and picking up Bosman signings is simply not going to allow us best our competitors when they can spend like drunken sailors.

Yes, Karius has performed significantly better on crosses than Mignolet and is miles better in other areas. I am more than happy with the upgrade Karius offers and believe he will settle into the team soon. Hopefully his adjustment won't be made more difficult by people expecting him to be something he is not. Moaning and groaning in the ground every time he opts not to come for a cross could dent his confidence or pressure him into making rash decisions. Klopp appears to have got every one of our Summer signings spot on. Given he had the vision to incorporate Milner and Wijnaldum the way he did, I am prepared to back his judgment on Karius and not benchmark his performances against the style of keeper I expected us to sign.

In 2014/15 Karius was 9.81% worse than the Bundesliga average for proficiency in claiming crosses. In comparison, Mignolet was an incredible 15.85% worse than the Premier League average for this metric that year. Top flight English teams put 7 more crosses in per game than in Germany. Karius was the fourth worst at claiming crosses in the top 4 European Leagues that year whereas Mignolet was second worst. Those are the Opta Stats and the club undoubtedly considered this information before stumping up for Karius. The 'eye test' so far backs up the numbers. Karius is a better keeper than Mignolet in virtually every measurable facet of the game but he absolutely does not have a pedigree as an aerially dominant keeper. That does not mean he is not a bargain at £4.7m or a potentially excellent fit for the way we want to play. Improved sweeping and shot stopping will see us concede less goals and he distributes far quicker which will create more chances on the counter. I'd imagine that is the edge the club are looking for him to provide.

https://basstunedtored.com/2016/05/25/loris-karius-stats-review/ The above link makes it clear that Karius is an excellent shot stopper who has a history of being passive on crosses but makes very few mistakes. Other sources tell us he is quick to sweep behind the back line and is good with his feet. That is the profile of keeper we opted for and it is clear he was not bought for his "command of the box". Mignolet's saves to shots ratio for the past two seasons was one of the worst in the league. He is also reluctant to sweep, made more errors than any other keeper, and is uncomfortable with the ball at his feet. The knock on effect is that we conceded far more goals than we should have given the poor quality of chances afforded to our opponents, our pressing game was hampered due to our inability to play a higher line given the risk of space in behind, and we were more susceptible to pressing by the opposition or dropping points due to clangers. Karius was bought to address most of these issues but he isn't perfect and crosses are currently his Achilles heel. Perhaps we hope that his handling will improve with the right coaching / experience? Maybe the plan is to offer him protection through a zonal marking system and aerially-aggressive defenders? What i do know is that Klopp felt his gifts outweighed his vulnerabilities in our desired system. Karius is what he is and if that is good enough for Klopp in the long run then it is good enough for me. In the fullness of time the stats will show he is a significant upgrade on Migs.

Horus knows the score! Denny: I certainly am not painting FSG as infallible and readily accept that they have benefited from a rising financial tide within the league. They have made some daft strategic decisions along the way (£77 tickets, Being Liverpool, Kenny Huang etc.). However, most of their biggest gaffs have been on the football side through a combination of naivety and hubris. FSG have flip-flopped on a DOF, bounced Kenny into and out of a job without any great plan and allowed Rodolfo Borrell defect to Man City. They are extremely lucky Klopp was prepared to join us in our current state and they should have went for the best qualified candidates for manager and CEO they could from the outset in order to bridge their lack of football experience. I believe it was a combination of a bargain price, the lure of TV money and the expectation of FFP being introduced that attracted them to the club. Things have not worked out as they envisaged but the overarching point is we are in a better financial position now than when they arrived on every commercial front. They also funded the construction of the main stand from their own resources instead of burdening the club with additional debt. I wholeheartedly agree that the likes of Dortmund and Sevilla are the types of clubs we need to emulate. I would love to see somebody like Nicola Cortese replace Ayre given his impressive work at Southampton and Zorc or Monchi to take up the gauntlet as DOF. Proven track records of success is what we need. The reason I mentioned naivety earlier in relation to FSG relates directly to your reference to Kenyon. The top clubs have aligned with the super agents in order to ensure access to the best players and United's dealings this Summer is a case study in how those relationships function. I don't want to go in to too much detail (for Usher's sake!) about Kenyon and Mendes and their dealings but it is worth researching if you want an insight into the incestuous nature of football at the very highest level. I suspect our inability to close out deals may be related to an a reticence to 'sweeten the pot' for agents and selling clubs' executives rather than Ayre being the second coming of Parry but maybe that is being too generous!!

That is a possibility Barry but the risk of it happening seems pretty remote to me. Any sale to a minority investor will have implications for FSG as the minority investor will insist on certain protections being put in place by way of a Shareholders' Agreement. FSG will no longer have complete autonomy to run the club as they see fit. Under the current model, they can plod along with the status quo without challenge. The introduction of a partner - even a minority one - will ensure that FSG has to continue to drive the club forward in order to avoid 'trigger events' which could lead to them having to buy-out the minority stakeholder, have a share allocation etc. The TV deal is not going to improve significantly in the short term and there is no European Super League on the horizon so FSG will need to come up with other strategies to generate returns in the meantime (the main stand naming rights, TV money and turnover will all be factored in to the acquisition value). I don't expect us to become less competitive post-investment but I acknowledge it is a leap of faith.

I doubt anybody other than FSG cares whether they make a tidy profit or not. Nobody is crowing about our balance sheet but getting that sorted is a vital step on the road to winning the league. Hope springs from the fact that a new investor will have ambitions for the club as they will have stumped up a lot of cash to acquire a seat at the table. FSG have shown themselves to be conservative spenders whereas a new investor may have a more spendthrift approach and will invariably have financial clout in order to be able to afford a stake. Further growth will largely be driven by sporting success. We are finally reaching the stage where the fans' and the business' interests are in close alignment. I appreciate that most people have limited interest in the financial side of the club but the reality is success or failure is contingent upon it. It is a truism that the best resourced clubs are also the most successful. Moores, Parry, Hicks and Gillett frustrated our ambitions since 1992. FSG have done a lot of good work to claw back some of the ground gained by our rivals. Money is what will give the football side the platform to compete. I won't begrudge FSG a return in the circumstances. Instead, my concern is that they select an investor capable of propelling us back to the top rather than simply the one offering them the best return. That is the final piece of the jigsaw.

Despite the limp denials, FSG are clearly positioning for a sale of at least part of the club: Bloomberg and the Financial Times would not have printed stories about the Chinese bid and the Allen & Co. appointment unless they were satisfied that the leaks from their sources are credible. The lack of commentary from the parties involved is standard practice as any discussions would be the subject of non-disclosure agreements.The new stand is on the cusp of being opened yet no sponsorship whatsoever has been announced in connection with it. It beggars belief that it has not attracted any interest and the most obvious explanation is that the club do not want to dissuade an investor with plans to plaster their own branding all over it. No major changes are generally sanctioned while due diligence is on the horizon.Locking Klopp into a six-year deal in July seemed a strange move. FSG clearly recognise that his popularity and marketability add value to the LFC ‘brand’. Clubs ordinarily wait to see how a manager performs before offering a bumper deal but Klopp is one of our most valuable assets so his continued presence had to be assured.Despite Ian Ayre issuing notice of termination, he has been asked to stay on for the time being. This is commonly the case when investment talks are ongoing as the parties are keen to ensure continuity within the business. In the event of a sale, Ayre’s departure could be accelerated and a new CEO installed with minimum fuss.Our transfer dealings this Summer have generated a surplus while simultaneously cutting the wage bill by a significant extent. We have never previously used more than 24 players in a season without European football so we are pretty much as lean as possible. Coupled with the TV deal and revenue from the new main stand, these changes will ensure that the club realises a healthy profit for the third consecutive year (prior to the recent turnaround you had to go back to 2007/8).FSG have made impressive strides in remedying the legacy issues they inherited at the club. The age profile of the squad is now one of the youngest in the league, the wages to turnover ratio has been dramatically improved, commercial partnerships have been agreed at a dizzying rate, international club shops have been opened, and hospitality / corporate seating forms a cornerstone of the new main stand. All these advances mean the club is on a far more sustainable financial footing. All of the ‘low hanging fruit’ has been harvested by FSG and the only way to significantly increase the value of the club from this point on is through sporting success. FSG are unlikely to want to completely bail out of a cash cow investment and the noises from Tom Werner is that they are considering the sale of a minority stake only. Selling up to a 49% interest for c. £5-600m would instantly allow FSG recoup all of its investment costs / interest free loans (and achieve a respectable profit) while retaining the lion’s share of the club. Future investment in the club would be the subject of a Shareholders' Agreement making the new investor liable to contribute a large slice of any cash injections (or risk their shareholding being diluted) required to take us to the next level. The carrot for investors is that regular Champions League qualification would add a minimum of £17m and up to £80m to the club’s bottom line each season driving up the value of their equity stake. Phase 1 of FSG’s ownership is coming to an end and the next step looks to be outside investment to ensure that the club can compete with the oil clubs, La Liga giants and the Mancs on a similar footing. Personally, I would be happy enough for FSG to stay on as they have done an impressive job dragging the club into the modern age financially. The appointment of Klopp hopefully heralds an improvement on the football side too which is what we all really crave.