No ifs, no buts, no provisos - who do you REALLY rate?

[Catch22]

That's flawed logic. If you're judging success rate of signings, you don't use net spend as the base metric, you use number of players signed.

 

If you put 99 £10 bets that lost & 1 £5000 bet that won at evens

i) Your success rate is 1% on the above

ii) Your final position is £10,000 (£5k win + stake), having started with £5990 (99*10 + 5000) for a reasonable profit.

 

If instead those 99 £10 bets that won at evens & 1 £5000 that lost

i) Your success rate is 99%

ii) Your final position is £990, having started with £5,990

 

A higher success rate is better than a lower success rate but it pales into insignificance compared to

i) The big bets are much more important. 20 kids at £250k each cost £5m even if none make it, or the loss on 1 player, Keane

His biggest bet was Torres, great success

ii) Limiting your losses

Almost always that involves do it as quickly as possible. Top marks here again

 

 

In addition Rafa has spotted players such as Carson,Crouch,Bell & Momo who were undervalued, bought them, got contributions of all & then sold for a profit.

[INTORRESTING]

Dossenna needs a bit more time to settle, ngog is young and not been given any games yet, I think Lucas will come good but not up to scratch yet. Babel needs to step up.

 

The rest is good enough and it is a great squad, we have reached that base level and now just need to add 3 or so top class performers to give us more options and give us an excellent first team and good squad plus they all need a few years to learn each others game.

[Catch22]

Agreed. The way people who defend Rafa's record seem to paint it, it's as if he had absolutely no choice but to act in the way he did in the transfer market. I'm not aware of another manager at this level (consistent CL participants) employing such a "ship 'em in and ship 'em out again" strategy. And once again, the money factor is not applicable as I reckon there are only a handful of clubs who consistently spend more than us in Europe and many more who qualify for the CL from the big leagues who spend far less.

 

It is genuinely astounding to me that anyone can try and justify Rafa's transfer record as a success when there is a broad consensus that going on five years worth of spending has given us about half a team's worth of genuine quality. It's blindingly obvious to me from the European Cup win that Rafa was able to get significant contributions out of the players most people regarded then - and now - as shite. The squad players were already at the club and what was needed were first team players. I do not see why the likes of Baros, Cisse, Smicer, Traore et al could not have continued to do a job for us from the bench or to give the quality a rest.

 

If he'd focused all his resources on one or two classy additions in every window - and as has been highlighted above, they were out there and available for fees very similar to those we've been spending - then I've got no doubt that we'd be in much better shape by now and playing much better attacking football. Instead, we've only got two players who can score goals and even with them we often struggle to break opponents down.

 

The bottom line is that we need match winners and Rafa has wasted money on multiple options, squad players and a self-defeating internal battle over The Academy at the expense of bringing them in. And he's still doing it now, as the signings of the out of his depth N'Gog, risible Dossena and likeable, but limited Riera attest. Sadly I think it will ultimately cost him job, too.

 

"And once again, the money factor is not applicable as I reckon there are only a handful of clubs who consistently spend more than us in Europe and many more who qualify for the CL from the big leagues who spend far less."

 

There isn't 1 team though who competes in the same main competitions as us who has achieved more but spent less:

 

1. PL.

We average 3.75th in Rafa's time here.

That is beaten by 3 teams, all of whom spend a lot more than us.

 

2. CL

We have the best record in Europe in Rafa's time here.

Therefore nobody is better than us.

 

Not 1 team in Europe has achieved more than us whilst spending less in either of the 2 major competitons.

How can his overall transfer record be anything other than excellent?

[Redexile]

Yes. He bought them for the team, quite clearly.

 

 

 

No it doesn't at all. The were both bought as first team players, anyone with eyes in their head can see that.

 

 

I would say Riera was bought for the position on the left but Dossena was brought in to fight out the left back position with Aurelio with Rafa also having one eye on Aurelio's injury situation. Having said that I still say that both are squad players nothing more.

[Redexile]

Dossenna needs a bit more time to settle, ngog is young and not been given any games yet, I think Lucas will come good but not up to scratch yet. Babel needs to step up.

 

The rest is good enough and it is a great squad, we have reached that base level and now just need to add 3 or so top class performers to give us more options and give us an excellent first team and good squad plus they all need a few years to learn each others game.

 

I would say Dossena , like Degen will not make it with us. I think Lucas might also have to go overseas to make it. Babel could make it but he will have to up his attitude and knuckle down having said all that I don't think he has much of a football brain so he has a lot to do.

[Unrighteous]

I think Benitez built the squad from the ground up, including signing players for the bench and backup.

 

Which is fine... but the problem is that when a squaddie/backup fails... he REPLACES HIM WITH ANOTHER SQUADDIE.

 

The logical step would be to buy a vastly superior player and create some fighting for first team spots.

[Unrighteous]

If I am being totally honest with myself...

 

Skrtel

Agger

Hyypia

Gerrard

Torres

Alonso

Mascherano

Carragher

 

Oh, forgot to put down Riena.

[redrosetints]

Agreed. The way people who defend Rafa's record seem to paint it, it's as if he had absolutely no choice but to act in the way he did in the transfer market. I'm not aware of another manager at this level (consistent CL participants) employing such a "ship 'em in and ship 'em out again" strategy. And once again, the money factor is not applicable as I reckon there are only a handful of clubs who consistently spend more than us in Europe and many more who qualify for the CL from the big leagues who spend far less.

 

It is genuinely astounding to me that anyone can try and justify Rafa's transfer record as a success when there is a broad consensus that going on five years worth of spending has given us about half a team's worth of genuine quality. It's blindingly obvious to me from the European Cup win that Rafa was able to get significant contributions out of the players most people regarded then - and now - as shite. The squad players were already at the club and what was needed were first team players. I do not see why the likes of Baros, Cisse, Smicer, Traore et al could not have continued to do a job for us from the bench or to give the quality a rest.

 

If he'd focused all his resources on one or two classy additions in every window - and as has been highlighted above, they were out there and available for fees very similar to those we've been spending - then I've got no doubt that we'd be in much better shape by now and playing much better attacking football. Instead, we've only got two players who can score goals and even with them we often struggle to break opponents down.

 

The bottom line is that we need match winners and Rafa has wasted money on multiple options, squad players and a self-defeating internal battle over The Academy at the expense of bringing them in. And he's still doing it now, as the signings of the out of his depth N'Gog, risible Dossena and likeable, but limited Riera attest. Sadly I think it will ultimately cost him job, too.

 

But it's equally astounding people won't look at the context of the situation. We havent signed many decent attackers, but look at the going rate for decent attackers.

 

When united spent 12m on Ronaldo, our record was 10m. We go out and spend 20m on two strikers, united up the ante and spend 32m on Berbatov and this summer they intend to sign Tevez for around the same price, having already paid 10m to loan him. Rooney cost 20m when our record was still 10.

 

Ronaldo 12m - Our record Heskey 10m

Saha 13m - Our record Heskey 10m

Veron 32m 0 Our record Heskey 10m

Rooney 20m - Our record Heskey 10m

Berbatov 32m - Our record Torres 20m

Tevez 10m loan plus 30m - our record Torres 20m

 

Through the majority of his tenure the amount of money Rafa really had, was 15m a transfer window, so we couldnt have afforded any of these players. To suggest otherwise is just ignoring the facts.

 

In an ideal world, where we had the cash, then the argument to supplement the existing squad in 04, with Berbatov, Ronaldo, Tevez and Rooney and we'd have a superb team, would be true and carry much weight. Indeed, if i thoguht this true i too would be highly critical of Rafa spending, but the fact is when they were signed, we couldnt afford so that argument carries no weight at all.

 

On top of those players above, they've spent 72m on 4 middle of the road midfielders in Carrick, Nani, Andersen and Hargreaves. A further 30m was spent on Veron. To ignore their spending power is absurd.

 

We are always one step behind them in having the money to sign the creme de la creme of attacking talent, which is of course what were after and why its so expensive, were always one step down on the ladder than them, therefore is it any surprise that its in attacking talent we lack ?

[redrosetints]

I think Benitez built the squad from the ground up, including signing players for the bench and backup.

 

Which is fine... but the problem is that when a squaddie/backup fails... he REPLACES HIM WITH ANOTHER SQUADDIE.

 

The logical step would be to buy a vastly superior player and create some fighting for first team spots.

 

I agree with this to a point, but it falls down on signing 'vastly superior' players.

 

If Berbatov and Tevez are upward of 30m, where do we get the money from ?

 

Attacking talent doesnt just grow on trees, it's expensive because their is a paucity of these players, "the ones who make you go hmmmmm."

 

Who are the mythical wingers we could afford to help us ? Who are the strikers we get sign to fit our system ?

 

Last summer was a poor one for us, only Reira has come in and done a job, but even if we'd ploughed all our money into one huge bid for Berbatov, would we be any better off ? Personally I dont think we would.

 

When They signed Ronaldo, Rooney, Ferdinand, Veron and Saha, yes even Saha, we simply didnt have the money to compete. No question of juggling it around and cutting back on squad players to sign one huge superstar, we simply couldn't afford them !

[Unrighteous]

I agree with this to a point, but it falls down on signing 'vastly superior' players.

 

If Berbatov and Tevez are upward of 30m, where do we get the money from ?

 

Attacking talent doesnt just grow on trees, it's expensive because their is a paucity of these players, "the ones who make you go hmmmmm."

 

Who are the mythical wingers we could afford to help us ? Who are the strikers we get sign to fit our system ?

 

Last summer was a poor one for us, only Reira has come in and done a job, but even if we'd ploughed all our money into one huge bid for Berbatov, would we be any better off ? Personally I dont think we would.

 

When They signed Ronaldo, Rooney, Ferdinand, Veron and Saha, yes even Saha, we simply didnt have the money to compete. No question of juggling it around and cutting back on squad players to sign one huge superstar, we simply couldn't afford them !

 

I agree with that but there are bargains to be had... I don't to bring out names because then it is all FMish but there are quality attacking players elsewhere that we could afford.

 

We just need to have the balls to go and get them.

[INTORRESTING]

Apologies for the ifs and buts but this poll is really another way of questioning rafa's transfer policy

 

It is one in one out until we reach a base level. It is dealing in the gamble bracket, buying third choices plus he has had his hands tied and was a foreign manager coming to a foreign league.

 

Lately, no other top club has been built up from the bottom and turned around so how do people know if Rafa's methods are the right ones or not. He has obviously made mistakes but they have not really cost us. What woul happen if we signed an argie international for 28 million or ukrainian hasbeen for 30 million and they flopped? Look at how much united spent years ago, veron, rvn, rio, rooney - that is about 110 million years ago. Our record is still 20.2 million now!!! Our net spend is not huge and i think we are only now in a position to add one or two top players. However will adding aguero and ribery this summer (i wish) make us leapfrog united who are adding berbatov and tevez and probably more? Tevez and Berbatov are already settled and any new players may not settle for us anyway. We need a miracle from rafa but if he does win the title some people will say he should have won it earlier!

 

Maybe if he had the money of chelsea, the time of wenger or the money and time of fergie with control then things would be different.

 

A ll i know is that he has been given big money 3 times and bought 2 of the best in their position in the world and someone he cut his losses on surrounded in controversy.

 

I am sure he would have had a better team if he had bought 3 20 million players for 60 million instead of dossenna, lucas, babel, ngog, kuyt, yossi, arbeloa, riera and skrtel but what would our team be for the next few days if Rafa just went for a first 11 and would what happen if we got some injuries.

 

Our squad is Reina, Insua, Aurelio, dossenna, agger, skrtel, hyppia, carra, degen, arbeloa, riera, babel, yossi, kuyt, masch, alonso, lucas, alonso, ngog, torres, gerrard

 

That comes to about 130 million at an average of about 6.5 million a player. If Rafa had bought a few 20 million players where would our squad be. He had to do the ship in ship out routine to quick fix our squad and help in certain competitions such as pace from Bellamy and Crouch to help in away games. He got Bellamy cheap, Garcia offered plenty, Crouch helped us and was sold on because we improved upon him, Kromkamp and Josemi were moved on for nominal losses, Pellegrino helped hyppia stay fit and is now a member of the coaching staff, Carson made us money, Cavalieri is highly rated and again should make us money, Itandje was awful, Degen and Voronin were free internationals and we should recoup some money on them, Ngog was cheap, Morientes was a surprise flop that no one really expected again sold at a nominal loss. There are more examples but i dont think he has had an out and out disaster.

 

People should also look at the age of players we have and also realise that we are top performers in europe but how much experience do the players actually have in the cl? Many not much at all so Rafa has overachieved in that department.

 

Rafa came to England with spanish methods and spanish players, buying english may have helped him settle but how on earth could he have afforded them.

 

I am sure we would be better if we had simao, alves and vidic too.

 

Our squad is very good, the second best in the country i would say and if torres and gerrard had been fit and firing all season we would probably be a couple of points clear.

 

Rafa has spent money but he has spent it on the whole squad and 200 million to transform the dirge he took over is fantastic. We can go top tonight and are favourties against madrid - that is some turn around.

 

It takes time to reach a base level and i hope fans look at some history before the ta ra rafa banners go up. Valencia would love him back, lets not make the same mistake.

[ScottyT]

You could also use Berbatov as an example of a bargain plucked from relative obscurity.

 

We signed Kuyt instead for the same fee because he works harder. How much is he worth now?

[Stu Monty]

Might have been because he scored a shitload of goals though and not that he works hard. What do you reckon?

[Moo]

I agree with that but there are bargains to be had... I don't to bring out names because then it is all FMish but there are quality attacking players elsewhere that we could afford.

 

We just need to have the balls to go and get them.

 

If they were close to 'guaranteed' quality then they wouldn't be bargain prices.

The fact is any player is a risk, and it's probably proven that the less he costs the lesser quality is likely.

[redrosetints]

That's flawed logic. If you're judging success rate of signings, you don't use net spend as the base metric, you use number of players signed.

 

Not in my opinion. I know there are holes in Net spend etc, but that is the figure which tells you exactly how much the manager has REALLY had to spend. Its about evolution.

 

When Rafa came to us, United had Van Nistelroy 19m, Saha 13m Rooney 20m, Ronaldo 12m, all four were signed for more than our record at the time, Heskey of 10m.

 

Only that summer did we pay 14m for someone and even then it wasnt Rafas signing.

 

So you have to look at the evolution, we couldnt afford to go and buy a Rooney, we had a Baros, so Rafa signed Bellers, after Bellers he signed Crouch. Each one was a step up the chain, each one better until we know have Torres.

 

On the right wing, we had noone, then Nunez, then Pennant, now Kuyt. Kuyt may not be the answer, but he's better than the ones before.

 

On the left we had Kewell, then Gonzalez (who I grant you wanst better), then Babel then Reira a gradual improvement.

 

So when you look at the squad now, you've 6 signings over 70% agree are LFC class and those 6 account for around 65% of the NET Spend. You've then got Arbeloa and Aurelio who cost 2.5m and are more than decent players, if not the kind of overlapping, scoring and assisting ful backs we crave. You've Babel who now has a chance to recapture last seasons cameos and maybe push on and Kuyt, who while not a world beater, would certainly stay in the most peoples squad, if not an automatic inclusion each week in the starting team.

[INTORRESTING]

You could also use Berbatov as an example of a bargain plucked from relative obscurity.

 

We signed Kuyt instead for the same fee because he works harder. How much is he worth now?

 

We very nearly signed Berbatov and had scouted him before spurs but fate was against us that time. Maybe inept dealings too but i cant blame you know who for everything

[Thants]

Hyppia

Gerrard

Alonso

Arbeloa

Carragher

Reina

 

Based on this season.

 

I'd put Masch, Dirk, Skrtel and Torres in the lower bracket.

[INTORRESTING]

wages are a big factor too. Ronaldo would have been ours if it wasn't for wages plus even if do we scout someone we are vlunerable as we get blown out fo the water.

[ScottyT]

Might have been because he scored a shitload of goals though and not that he works hard. What do you reckon?

 

If Benitez bought Kuyt purely for his goalscoring ability he'd have been sold by now. I think the big draw was his workrate, hence the willingness to find a place for him in the team at all costs, regardless of form.

 

Berbatov is at the other end of the spectrum and has now developed into a world class player. You have to honestly ask yourself would that have happened under Rafa?

 

That's not a criticism of him, he has his philosophy and that's that, but it's a good insight into his mindset regarding flair and forward players.

[redrosetints]

I agree with that but there are bargains to be had... I don't to bring out names because then it is all FMish but there are quality attacking players elsewhere that we could afford.

 

We just need to have the balls to go and get them.

 

Oh come on, you can't say there are players out there and not name them ! IMHO, the sort of silky, tricky wingers we need are few and far between and as such cost the earth, we may find quality in some cheaper, but generally Id say they will not quite be good enough, see Kuyt possibly Reira, though he still has time, Babel even Pennant.

 

The more you pay, the more the likelihood that a player will produce for you. Its no gimmee as Schevchenko, Veron and Keane show, but generally, the more they cost, the more likely they are to produce.

 

Van Nistelroy, Ferdinand, Ronaldo, Tevez and Berbatov just oozed class and were always going to be a hit.

 

We did have balls, we went for Babel, spent 11.5m on a kid, who was highly rated so far its not working out as we'd liked.

 

We went to South America and signed Brazils player of the season for 6m, a superb signing on paper.

 

That it hasnt worked is one of those things, but if anyone on here was offered the chance to sign Brazils player of the season, who was just 19 for 6m, then Im sure everyone one of us would have thought that a risk worth taking, its just complete revisionism for them to say otherwise.

[Paul]

What Redexile is clearly saying is that he may have bought them as first team players, but they are clearly not first team standard (Riera is debatable, although he'll prove to be not good enough in the long-term, IMO).

 

So, as I said, it's his judgement which is at question as well as his policy at times.

 

Agreed.

 

The point is that Rafa's policy there was to buy for the first team and get players to go straight into the 11. The point being he isn't going for lots of squad players or options.

 

But my point, which I've been making for years (although not quite as long as Hermes) is that we need to focus on one or two quality signings. I don't see how buying four players in the last window fits that policy. If you spread your funds too thinly then it's inevitably harder to sign players who are more likely to succeed.

 

That said, as Brownie has said above, I don't think Rafa and his scouts are especially great judges of attacking players anyway and I also think that, with the exception of Torres, he actually reduces the effectiveness of his attacking signings with the way he asks them to play. Think of all the strikers he's both signed and used at the club and in every case bar that of Torres, he's used the player out of position or in a role that's plainly unsuited to his attributes.

 

It seems to me that the only players he actually improves as attackers are the very best (Torres and Gerrard), which is why he should target that level of player even if it means only adding one signing a year. It would certainly explain his success at Balenthia in the league too as he took over a team with attacking quality in many positions.

[INTORRESTING]

If Benitez bought Kuyt purely for his goalscoring ability he'd have been sold by now. I think the big draw was his workrate, hence the willingness to find a place for him in the team at all costs, regardless of form.

 

Berbatov is at the other end of the spectrum and has now developed into a world class player. You have to honestly ask yourself would that have happened under Rafa?

 

That's not a criticism of him, he has his philosophy and that's that, but it's a good insight into his mindset regarding flair and forward players.

 

That is a fair point but it could be down to the fact rafa has to deliver whilst fergie can have a barren spell albeit a short one, blood some players or even throw in a lazy flair player as the rest of the team know each other so well they will compensate for him and the others are of a certain quality and have a winning mindset.

 

I doubt Ronaldo would be the player he is today under houllier and rafa but then again rafa played garcia a lot, loves torres, bought riera so i think he does like flair players but will only play certain players if every other cog in his machine is right as he knows flair players cost you in tracking back etc.

[Paul]

Oh come on, you can't say there are players out there and not name them ! IMHO, the sort of silky, tricky wingers we need are few and far between and as such cost the earth, we may find quality in some cheaper, but generally Id say they will not quite be good enough, see Kuyt possibly Reira, though he still has time, Babel even Pennant.

 

The more you pay, the more the likelihood that a player will produce for you. Its no gimmee as Schevchenko, Veron and Keane show, but generally, the more they cost, the more likely they are to produce.

 

Van Nistelroy, Ferdinand, Ronaldo, Tevez and Berbatov just oozed class and were always going to be a hit.

 

We did have balls, we went for Babel, spent 11.5m on a kid, who was highly rated so far its not working out as we'd liked.

 

We went to South America and signed Brazils player of the season for 6m, a superb signing on paper.

 

That it hasnt worked is one of those things, but if anyone on here was offered the chance to sign Brazils player of the season, who was just 19 for 6m, then Im sure everyone one of us would have thought that a risk worth taking, its just complete revisionism for them to say otherwise.

There was a list of players further up the thread that would have improved us dramatically for similar prices to those we've paid for the likes of Babel, Pennant, Kuyt and Riera - especially if Rafa wasn't wasting money on like for like squad options or players to win an internal war over control of The Academy.

[redrosetints]

wages are a big factor too. Ronaldo would have been ours if it wasn't for wages plus even if do we scout someone we are vlunerable as we get blown out fo the water.

 

We couldnt have afforded Ronaldo, he cost 12.5m, we'd not spent more than 10 on Heskey. IIRC, in the summer they signed Ronaldo, we only spent 3.5 on Finnan and got Kewell on a free.

[INTORRESTING]

Agreed.

 

 

 

But my point, which I've been making for years (although not quite as long as Hermes) is that we need to focus on one or two quality signings. I don't see how buying four players in the last window fits that policy. If you spread your funds too thinly then it's inevitably harder to sign players who are more likely to succeed.

 

That said, as Brownie has said above, I don't think Rafa and his scouts are especially great judges of attacking players anyway and I also think that, with the exception of Torres, he actually reduces the effectiveness of his attacking signings with the way he asks them to play. Think of all the strikers he's both signed and used at the club and in every case bar that of Torres, he's used the player out of position or in a role that's plainly unsuited to his attributes.

 

It seems to me that the only players he actually improves as attackers are the very best (Torres and Gerrard), which is why he should target that level of player even if it means only adding one signing a year. It would certainly explain his success at Balenthia in the league too as he took over a team with attacking quality in many positions.

 

but who in the world can afford anyone in the gerrard and torres bracket? Dossenna has been woeful but to be fair he has been needed. Keane also played a lot and Riera has started plenty so the summer buys were obviously needed. We are weren't at the level to buy one big player in the summer imo.

 

Rafa plays a team game and adapts people's games, you will not see gung ho flair players playing with no care in the world, that does not mean rafa is a bad judge.

 

i don't see how can you add the big names without a squad