No ifs, no buts, no provisos - who do you REALLY rate?

[SCOUSE TAPAS]

 

Insua - shows great potential if Rafa puts him back in the side

 

I think he has the potential to be a world class left back.I thought that before he had even been in the first team.

 

Now he has made it in to it,I just get more and more impressed by him.

 

The only downside to me is the Argentinean side to it.They will go to any mickey mouse thing they get picked for.Plus you are talking about them traveling half way round the world to play a meaningless match.

 

This is a major problem imo with Mascher to,and one of the reasons for his non performances this season.

[JMARKH]

Those who I haven't voted for are Kuyt, Babel, ngog, Lucas, Dosenna, Riera and Benayoun. The rest are good enough to play for the club. Babel is a bit of a maybe but must do more.

[laddo]

Which five muppets didnt vote Gerrard then?

[Guest LFD]

I can't believe Arbeloa doesn't have more votes.

 

I think he's having a very impressive season and we couldn't ask for much more in a right back.

 

Solid defensively, good engine up and down the flank, willing to get forward offering good width, getting assists and performs week in, week out.

 

Maybe it's because he was cheap.

[Catch22]

Dossena is like Robert Mugabe.

 

He manages to achieve a 100% vote in an election

 

That is almost impossible as Gerrard/Torres show here... How can they possibly not be good enough for Lfc?

[ScottyT]

Solid defensively, good engine up and down the flank, willing to get forward offering good width, getting assists and performs week in, week out.

 

I just don't see it. He's anything but 'solid' in defence and when he does finally get into an attacking position, he bottles it and puts in a weak cross.

[1892-LFCWasBorn]

I can't believe Arbeloa doesn't have more votes.

 

I think he's having a very impressive season and we couldn't ask for much more in a right back.

 

Solid defensively, good engine up and down the flank, willing to get forward offering good width, getting assists and performs week in, week out.

 

Maybe it's because he was cheap.

 

Got nothing do with how much he cost.

 

I personally think he's shite going forward. Carra offered us so much more when he filled in for him while he was out injured. He's too tentative.

 

He tends to lose concentration at vital times in games that usually leads to goals. This thread is about players you can rely on and Arbeloa is still not there for me.

 

I just don't see it. He's anything but 'solid' in defence and when he does finally get into an attacking position, he bottles it and puts in a weak cross.

 

I think it's a myth that he puts in a good cross.

 

Time after time he either over hits it or goes out for an opposition goal kick or throw on.

[moxter]

I wouldn't say Carra did better than Arbeloa at full back but Carra's not averse to pumping a ball into the box (oo-er missus) from deep, which Arbeloa never does.

[ScottyT]

Carragher's crossing is far better when he plays at right back, mainly because he's an all round intelligent footballer with a set of bollocks.

[Hazel Motes]

I felt a warm feeling down my thighs while including Sami. He's a flawless, influential player, despise his age and I guess that's what really significances class.

 

I didn't include N'GOG (BELIEVE; and fuck you RedKnight, you evil supermong, for negging me when standing up for one of our promising reserves players), but that's only cause he hasn't been given the chance to prove his talent match in, match out.

[Royal Family]

Can we name the 5 who haven't picked Gerrard? Seriously. How can ANYONE say he isn't Liverpool class - not even an issue for discussion.

[RJ Fan club]

You are fucking mongs, how is carra and gerrard not 100%? only my drunkness prevents me from further examining your gobshiteness.

[1892-LFCWasBorn]

Can we name the 5 who haven't picked Gerrard? Seriously. How can ANYONE say he isn't Liverpool class - not even an issue for discussion.

 

You are fucking mongs, how is carra and gerrard not 100%? only my drunkness prevents me from further examining your gobshiteness.

 

The same 5 who voted for Lucas?

[lamai]

who are comedians who voted kuyt:ermm:

[Alan Sex]

Ha! You said no butts. Here's one.

 

[Paul]

 

I'd say a manager is probably going to get at least 20-25% of his signings wrong, that's just the nature of the beast. There doesn't seem to be any acceptance of this from a lot of the tranfer scrutiny.

 

If that was Rafa's failure rate, we'd have won the league by now and I'd certainly accept the three 3:1 hit rate in the transfer market that you suggest as a bench mark Stu; in fact, that would be outstanding, in my view. I reckon he's missed with well over half his signings - well over. In fact, if my total of six is used, that's a failure rate of 90% as he's signed about 60 players. That could be construed as harsh as I rate Crouch, Keane, Garcia and Sissoko. However, Rafa clearly didn't enough to keep them.

 

To me, it's as plain as the fact that Josemi is shite that Rafa's revolving door policy has not worked. He just spreads his resources too thinly. His ridiculous feud over The Academy (even though the principle at stake is right) has probably taken at least the cost of one first team player out of his funds as he's surely spent more than £10m on "potential" (potential that never gets a sniff of the first team, mind you). It's not even as if the whole "But he makes a profit on those players he moves on" argument carries water any more, either: we've just flushed £7m down the toilet to Portsmouth and another £3m minimum to Spurs. I can't see us getting our money back on Dossena, Lucas, Kuyt or Babel, either - and I'd argue that at least three of those four should definitely be moved on in the summer with only Dirk retaining any worth to us as a very good squad option.

 

Too many players who are nothing but mercenaries, or thugs, or prima donnas. Bellamy, Pennant, Alonso, Agger, Babel, Riise, Keane, Kewell, and to a lesser extent Crouch. For one reason or another, their attitude has let them down either off-pitch or more often on it.

 

Huh? I thought you made loads of good points in the rest of your post, but this just leaped off the screen. I don't recognise Xabi from that description.

[Bust3rboi]

Fuck , i accidently voted for Dossena hahah

[gaz181]

An interesting poll, and one that shows what most fans have been saying for a while. We've got a brilliant spine to the team, really strong through the middle but we're lacking out wide.

[Catch22]

If that was Rafa's failure rate, we'd have won the league by now and I'd certainly accept the three 3:1 hit rate in the transfer market that you suggest as a bench mark Stu; in fact, that would be outstanding, in my view. I reckon he's missed with well over half his signings - well over. In fact, if my total of six is used, that's a failure rate of 90% as he's signed about 60 players. That could be construed as harsh as I rate Crouch, Keane, Garcia and Sissoko. However, Rafa clearly didn't enough to keep them.

 

To me, it's as plain as the fact that Josemi is shite that Rafa's revolving door policy has not worked. He just spreads his resources too thinly. His ridiculous feud over The Academy (even though the principle at stake is right) has probably taken at least the cost of one first team player out of his funds as he's surely spent more than £10m on "potential" (potential that never gets a sniff of the first team, mind you). It's not even as if the whole "But he makes a profit on those players he moves on" argument carries water any more, either: we've just flushed £7m down the toilet to Portsmouth and another £3m minimum to Spurs. I can't see us getting our money back on Dossena, Lucas, Kuyt or Babel, either - and I'd argue that at least three of those four should definitely be moved on in the summer with only Dirk retaining any worth to us as a very good squad option.

 

 

 

Huh? I thought you made loads of good points in the rest of your post, but this just leaped off the screen. I don't recognise Xabi from that description.

 

 

I also doubt that we will get our money back on those 4 players but we are not taking significant losses on them either.

 

Transfer dealing always carries an element of risk in it as players are human & must adapt to new team/house/lifestyle etc.

 

Think of it therefore as rolling a dice.

The more time you roll (buy a player) the more 6's you will hit.

Equally & obviously you will throw more 1's. But that only matters if you are taking signiifcant losses on them.

 

If you play a roulette wheel where you double your money on evens but only lose 10% on odds it makes sense to spin it as many times as possible

 

The key to all this is emotional & intellectual ruthlessness with the "failiures" to limit their losses (Keane) & good trading of the "averages" (Momo,Crouch,Carson) to produce a bit of extra cash.

The spectaluar winners then carry little extra cost & look even better.

 

Hit-ratios are fairly irrelevant:

i) Because of differing bet sizes. If i put 99 losing £10 bets on but then double my money on a £10,000 bet i have a hit ratio of 1% & fantastic profit.

Most of Rafa's 60 signings are very cheap long-shots, of which you only need very few to succeed (Carson has already turned £750k into £7m)

ii)How quickly you get out of "mistakes".

If you had bought UK banks shares in summer 2007 that is about a bad a deal as you could possibly do.

If you had ruthlesslly sold them for 25% after 5 months (Rafa) or kept them until now (GH) there is a world of difference in the final outcome.

Same hit ratio, vastly diffferent outcome.

 

Rafa does all this extremely well.

 

These can be seen when players are packaged together:

Striker:

Crouch/Bell/Keane/Moreintes came & gone but at no net cost so they disappear in the wash.

Kuyt needs some charge although Juve are sniffing & i wouldn't sell for less than £7m so i am charging £3m.

That leaves Torres at £24m which is brilliant by any standards.

 

Goalie:

Profit on Carson of about £5m. Pepe for £6m & Diego Cavalieri for £3.5m

So net we have one of the top 3 GK's in Europe & a reserve for £4.5m

Absolutely outstanding business.

 

Defence:

No real significant p/l so far.

Dossena is completely crap though so i'll take a £4m charge on him (£3m fair value now?)

Josemie led to Krompamp led to Arebela for just £2m

So we have a back 4 of Aurelio, Agger , Skrtel & Arbeloa (probably 3rd in the PL) bought for £17m

Add the charge on Doss & that is still only £21m.

Again, excellent. That is what the Chavs spend on 1FB or 1CB & is £9m less than the Mancs spent on Rio 7 years ago (inflation?)

 

CMidfield:

Profit on Momo of £4m; charge on Lucas of £2m (i wouldn't sell for £4m: i think he isn't bad for our resources as a 4th CM but i know a lot disagree)

So we have Masch & Xabi for a total of £23m.

Not cheap but looks excellent in a worlds in which Flamini costs £15m & RM's new Diarra £21m alone.

 

Wide/AM:

Pennant is a loss of £7m

Babel we'll drop another £3m

Riera cost £7m but effective cost £17m

Not really good enough but not a disaster (Jose spent £20m on SWP, Fergie spent £17m on Nani)

 

So we have excellent or outstanding performance in all areas except wide AM which is a bit below average which fits with what we see on the pitch.

 

In total we have a very young & excellent spine for about £75m or the gap that Arse spend to us on wages or £20m less than the Mancs spend on wages, before either have spent any fees at all.

 

From another perspective we have gained on all the other big 4 squads in Rafa's time whilst spending signifcantly less

So he is relatively the most successful transfer dealer of the 4.

Now theoretically that could mean he has been shit but all 3 other teams have been worse (certainly Jose was hopeless as the Chavs so that takes 1 competitor out for free)

But he has also been better than the Mancs or Arse & they very rarely screw things up on a grand scale.

 

All books/advice on dealing/gambling/investing you will ever consult stress money-management (=quickly & cheaply dealing with losses) as the key to long-run success, far more than "hit ratio"

 

Every person who does any of them & is honest will admit a hideous mistkae when they "got married to a position", kept it & kept it in the hope of it improving & lost a fortune (see GH repeatedly)

Extarordinarily Rafa has never really done that with the worst loss being pennant for just £7m.

 

Rafa hits spectacularly on most sizeable deals, makes profit on his average deals, takes small,quick losses on his bad deals & has a wide sprinkling of cheap,long-shots which might give a large bonus.

Absolutely text-book as to an ideal portolio.

[ToxtethTerror]

 

Hit-ratios are fairly irrelevant:

i) Because of differing bet sizes. If i put 99 losing £10 bets on but then double my money on a £10,000 bet i have a hit ratio of 1% & fantastic profit.

Most of Rafa's 60 signings are very cheap long-shots, of which you only need very few to succeed (Carson has already turned £750k into £7m)

ii)How quickly you get out of "mistakes".

If you had bought UK banks shares in summer 2007 that is about a bad a deal as you could possibly do.

If you had ruthlesslly sold them for 25% after 5 months (Rafa) or kept them until now (GH) there is a world of difference in the final outcome.

Same hit ratio, vastly diffferent outcome.

 

Rafa does all this extremely well.

 

These can be seen when players are packaged together:

Striker:

Crouch/Bell/Keane/Moreintes came & gone but at no net cost so they disappear in the wash.

Kuyt needs some charge although Juve are sniffing & i wouldn't sell for less than £7m so i am charging £3m.

That leaves Torres at £24m which is brilliant by any standards.

 

Goalie:

Profit on Carson of about £5m. Pepe for £6m & Diego Cavalieri for £3.5m

So net we have one of the top 3 GK's in Europe & a reserve for £4.5m

Absolutely outstanding business.

 

Defence:

No real significant p/l so far.

Dossena is completely crap though so i'll take a £4m charge on him (£3m fair value now?)

Josemie led to Krompamp led to Arebela for just £2m

So we have a back 4 of Aurelio, Agger , Skrtel & Arbeloa (probably 3rd in the PL) bought for £17m

Add the charge on Doss & that is still only £21m.

Again, excellent. That is what the Chavs spend on 1FB or 1CB & is £9m less than the Mancs spent on Rio 7 years ago (inflation?)

 

CMidfield:

Profit on Momo of £4m; charge on Lucas of £2m (i wouldn't sell for £4m: i think he isn't bad for our resources as a 4th CM but i know a lot disagree)

So we have Masch & Xabi for a total of £23m.

Not cheap but looks excellent in a worlds in which Flamini costs £15m & RM's new Diarra £21m alone.

 

Wide/AM:

Pennant is a loss of £7m

Babel we'll drop another £3m

Riera cost £7m but effective cost £17m

Not really good enough but not a disaster (Jose spent £20m on SWP, Fergie spent £17m on Nani)

 

So we have excellent or outstanding performance in all areas except wide AM which is a bit below average which fits with what we see on the pitch.

 

In total we have a very young & excellent spine for about £75m or the gap that Arse spend to us on wages or £20m less than the Mancs spend on wages, before either have spent any fees at all.

 

From another perspective we have gained on all the other big 4 squads in Rafa's time whilst spending signifcantly less

So he is relatively the most successful transfer dealer of the 4.

Now theoretically that could mean he has been shit but all 3 other teams have been worse (certainly Jose was hopeless as the Chavs so that takes 1 competitor out for free)

But he has also been better than the Mancs or Arse & they very rarely screw things up on a grand scale.

 

All books/advice on dealing/gambling/investing you will ever consult stress money-management (=quickly & cheaply dealing with losses) as the key to long-run success, far more than "hit ratio"

 

Every person who does any of them & is honest will admit a hideous mistkae when they "got married to a position", kept it & kept it in the hope of it improving & lost a fortune (see GH repeatedly)

Extarordinarily Rafa has never really done that with the worst loss being pennant for just £7m.

 

Rafa hits spectacularly on most sizeable deals, makes profit on his average deals, takes small,quick losses on his bad deals & has a wide sprinkling of cheap,long-shots which might give a large bonus.

Absolutely text-book as to an ideal portolio.

 

The question was about transfer success ratios not money spent over what's recouped. I'd say with the sheer numbers leaving and joining each summer we haven't got a great record under Rafa. What we do have though, is reasonable success given the transfer failures - Rafa's tactical genius seems to be able to get us winning big games in Europe with quite a number if average players.

 

If we are talking about money then your analysis of the attacking midfielders and strikers nails it - I agree. Rafa has struggled to sign the attackers we need mainly down to his own criteria of needing them to defend so when he looks for those players he is restricted to the likes of Riera and Benayoun. Another he has bought - Babel - he can't seem to get the best out of for whatever reason - I'd say 50% is the fault of the player too.

 

But is it always about money? For every Nani there is a Ronaldo at £12m. For every SWP there is a Joe Cole at £6m and Robben at £11m.

 

Rafa's record would look much better had he been better at spotting attacking talent be they cheap or expensive. The only one who has been an unqualified success is Torres and he cost £20m and was coverted by most clubs in Europe. Rafa needs to find his own Ronaldo, Cole, Adebayour, Van Persie, Nasri etc but not just sign them but also DEVELOP THEM - when he does that his record will be up there with the best.

[Catch22]

The question was about transfer success ratios not money spent over what's recouped. I'd say with the sheer numbers leaving and joining each summer we haven't got a great record under Rafa. What we do have though, is reasonable success given the transfer failures - Rafa's tactical genius seems to be able to get us winning big games in Europe with quite a number if average players.

 

If we are talking about money then your analysis of the attacking midfielders and strikers nails it - I agree. Rafa has struggled to sign the attackers we need mainly down to his own criteria of needing them to defend so when he looks for those players he is restricted to the likes of Riera and Benayoun. Another he has bought - Babel - he can't seem to get the best out of for whatever reason - I'd say 50% is the fault of the player too.

 

But is it always about money? For every Nani there is a Ronaldo at £12m. For every SWP there is a Joe Cole at £6m and Robben at £11m.

 

Rafa's record would look much better had he been better at spotting attacking talent be they cheap or expensive. The only one who has been an unqualified success is Torres and he cost £20m and was coverted by most clubs in Europe. Rafa needs to find his own Ronaldo, Cole, Adebayour, Van Persie, Nasri etc but not just sign them but also DEVELOP THEM - when he does that his record will be up there with the best.

 

 

Ronanldo was very expensive though. 2003 was a "bust" period in football & £12m was a lot of money.

Ronalso,Cole & Van Persie were before his time

Nasri is no better or worse yet than Babel- too early to say.

 

I would agree with you that Rafa lacks a "surprise" attacking success.

 

How many have there been in his time in Englands though (who we can legitimately say that he missed out on?)?

Berba for £10m (to Spurs but now doing it at a big 4 club), Adebayour for approx £6m after add-ons & none at the Chavs.

Santa Cruz for £3.5m is probably the only non-big 4 player as most of the others are still unproven at the top lelevl (the Keane/Saunders problem) but he has played a lot for BM in the CL so passes.

 

I do agree that a Pepe/Skrtel/Agger style-transfer is missing up-front though.

[GJM]

Rafa has struggled to sign the attackers we need mainly down to his own criteria of needing them to defend so when he looks for those players he is restricted to the likes of Riera and Benayoun.

 

Really? You think that Benayoun and Riera are strong defensively-minded/able players? There is something in their game that I am clearly missing if that is the case.

[ToxtethTerror]

Ronanldo was very expensive though. 2003 was a "bust" period in football & £12m was a lot of money.

Ronalso,Cole & Van Persie were before his time

Nasri is no better or worse yet than Babel- too early to say.

 

I would agree with you that Rafa lacks a "surprise" attacking success.

 

How many have there been in his time in Englands though (who we can legitimately say that he missed out on?)?

Berba for £10m (to Spurs but now doing it at a big 4 club), Adebayour for approx £6m after add-ons & none at the Chavs.

Santa Cruz for £3.5m is probably the only non-big 4 player as most of the others are still unproven at the top lelevl (the Keane/Saunders problem) but he has played a lot for BM in the CL so passes.

 

I do agree that a Pepe/Skrtel/Agger style-transfer is missing up-front though.

 

What are you going to do if Rafa leaves mate? I can see you setting up a fan club one day and having a multi club scarf made with Rafa's face on it.

 

There have been loads and loads of players that have been bought in the past 5 years that have been bargains or excellent buys for their clubs - ones that we could have easily afforded but either didn't know them or chose not to.

 

Of the top of my head:

 

Theo Walcott, Santa Cruz, Adebayor, Eto’o, Ribery, Ballack, Zhirkov (CSKA), van der Vaart, Villa, Arshavin, Nasri, Rosicky, Eduardo, Berbatov (Spurs), - there are hundreds.

 

Instead we have bought Kuyt, Bellamy, Keane, Morientes, N-Gog etc.. only Torres has been a success.

[ToxtethTerror]

Really? You think that Benayoun and Riera are strong defensively-minded/able players? There is something in their game that I am clearly missing if that is the case.

 

Both track back mate and both work hard. That's what Rafa needs in players, whether they are any good at defending is another question. It isn't a bad thing either, at United they all track back including Rooney - what they get right though is that they allow one or two players usually Ronaldo and Berbatov to stay on the half way at least at all times.

[Catch22]

What are you going to do if Rafa leaves mate? I can see you setting up a fan club one day and having a multi club scarf made with Rafa's face on it.

 

There have been loads and loads of players that have been bought in the past 5 years that have been bargains or excellent buys for their clubs - ones that we could have easily afforded but either didn't know them or chose not to.

 

Of the top of my head:

 

Theo Walcott, Santa Cruz, Adebayor, Eto’o, Ribery, Ballack, Zhirkov (CSKA), van der Vaart, Villa, Arshavin, Nasri, Rosicky, Eduardo, Berbatov (Spurs), - there are hundreds.

 

Instead we have bought Kuyt, Bellamy, Keane, Morientes, N-Gog etc.. only Torres has been a success.

 

Walcott we wanted but he wasn't allowed alledgly.

Eto went for EUR24m in 2004, copmpletely out of our price range. And how is he any different to Torres who you said was easy to spot?

Ribery was a £20m transfer to BM- again we couldn't afford him & not a surprise.

Ballack £130k/wk for 5 years-utterly outside of our budget.

etc.

 

None of these are new names.

Adebayour,Santa Cruz & Barba are the only "mid-price" signings that we could have made as attackers & have been a definite big 4 success.

 

We play un-attractive football & everyone is frustatrated with the Mancs being so dominant but that is down to their stadium.

Rafa has got us to top dog in the most importnant competition, he has improving steadily in the PL & he does it on a much lower budget that anyother top team.

Most of the criticism of him are emotional & illogical which is not a way to run a club

 

When Rafa leaves we are almost certian to revert to our level as Valencia did.

I will still support LFC as much as i have for over 30 years but whilst watching us in the Uefa Cup,without a new stadium, (as i have done for the 3 previous managers) i will look back happliy at my menories odf Istanbul,Milan,Barca,Turin,London & hopefully Madird & wonder if some of his more honest critics didn't wish they could do things over again

Rafa is the biggest over-achiever in world football & a tremendous asset to teh club. Defending him is as straight-forward & as logical as defending Gerrad or Torres, 2 other tremendous assets.