Russia v Ukraine

[M_B]

 

3 hours ago, Rico1304 said:

?

So I said in December last year that Putin would invade and try to take everything East of the Dnieper while America and Europe did nothing and you think that I was somehow off the mark?

 

Right oh. I'd say that's not a bad effort for an armchair historian\general on a football forum. I also said he'd definitely invade and that the build up of troops wasn't for fun, while others pontificated that it'd never happen.

 

But yeah, whatever helps you feel a man Rico (who didn't even join the thread till 11th Feb)

[cochyn]

41 minutes ago, DJLJ said:

Sure that wasn’t written by one the lunatics on here? I agree it was a little bit lenient for them, but still could have been…

Faaaar too creative for those quislings, mate. 

[dockers_strike]

1 hour ago, Red Shift said:

Honestly, ‘phosphorous bombs’

They’re flares.

No, they arent fucking flares.

[Red Phoenix]

2 hours ago, Rico1304 said:

Oh do fuck off. On every thread, every topic, every theme you’ve been completely and fucking hopelessly wrong.  It’s the consistency I crave. 

 

Just incase you think I was trying to avoid answering the quote :

 

"Ukraine have been actually trying to calm this down but the US (and the media) have been ramping things up for a while now. If there's any proof you need that they're causing most of this current shit it's that. Zelensky has literally been pointing out how stupid it's become."

 

Yes that was wrong and I'm fine with that (most of us on here are wrong on things at times, that's actually normal). Zelensky was trying to calm things down though and point out how stupid he thought it was at the time, and of course the media was going mental like it does anyway.

 

This was also Zelensky two days before Putin recognised Donetsk and Luhansk on the 21st Feb : President Zelensky Suggests Ukraine May Pursue Nuclear Weapons To Counter Russia, Putin Responds

 

Did that push Putin to invade? I don't suppose we'll ever know. What you quoted though wasn't so "completely and hopelessly fucking wrong" on "every theme".

 

On 13/03/2022 at 09:57, Red Phoenix said:

A lot of us in the west know that our countries are going to shit because of corporate greed, manipulation, censorship, corruption, oligarchs (western translation = billionaires) and propaganda. When that western influence crosses the border into Ukraine it doesn't suddenly become free of all of those problems. Let's look at all of the history.

 

Completely and hopelessly fucking wrong? I don't think so. If we had a more detailed and accurate history of what's gone on in Ukraine since 2014 that'd would definitely be interesting I think. A lot of the world has been focused on Ukraine for the last month quite a bit and it's been a risk to us all so it's probably a safe bet that there's going to be more history of this eventually.

 

As a last one, feel free to bookmark this and remind me of it whenever you want :

 

On 16/03/2022 at 21:56, Red Phoenix said:

Ukraine has more of a problem with fascism than a lot of people realise I think (and no it doesn't justify Putin's invasion) because Azov isn't just a few hundred Nazis confined to some battalion, it's bigger than that. This covers a decent amount in a fairly quick read I think : https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/mappingmilitants/profiles/azov-battalion

 

[Red Shift]

14 minutes ago, M_B said:

 

So I said in December last year that Putin would invade and try to take everything East of the Dnieper while America and Europe did nothing and you think that I was somehow off the mark?

 

Right oh. I'd say that's not a bad effort for an armchair historian\general on a football forum. I also said he'd definitely invade and that the build up of troops wasn't for fun, while others pontificated that it'd never happen.

 

But yeah, whatever helps you feel a man Rico.

Ukraine knew it. They’ve been preparing for at least 4 yrs

[M_B]

Just now, Red Shift said:

Ukraine knew it. They’ve been preparing for at least 4 yrs

And Russia.

 

Not Rico though.

[M_B]

4 hours ago, torahboy said:

The number of military starategists on this site is quite incredible, a bit like the media's coverage of the conflict in Ukraine.

It's almost as if people are speculating and discussing stuff on a discussion forum. Heaven forbid! You'll be down the pub next, telling people not to talk.

[Red Shift]

25th March situation. French Ministry Of Defence.

 

[Ne Moe Imya]

6 hours ago, cochyn said:

Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy: (apparently)

 

Words. Fail..

This might be a good sign, actually.

 

The Russians pivoting to say "nah, we never wanted Kyiv anyway, we were always after the Donbas" is the first step to Putin admitting defeat. I mean, he's like Trump in that he'll never actually admit defeat, but moving back to the Donbas where they started and then claiming a win would be one of the most hollow "victories" in the last couple of centuries.

 

The argument is that he suffered 20k or more casualties and turned the nation of Ukraine irrevocably away from ever wanting anything to do with Russia again and in exchange he gained ... a canal of water for Crimea and extended the battle lines in the Donbas a few dozen kilometers into Ukraine from where they were? And that's if he actually gets what he wants - no telling what the Ukrainian response is likely to be.

 

Reminds me of the old fable about the fox and the grapes. The fox really wants the juicy grapes, but he jumps at them a few times and they're too high. So, wishing to cover up his failure, he says "never wanted those sour grapes anyhow" and stalks off with his head held high.

[Ne Moe Imya]

By the way, I don't know why the Western media hasn't covered it very much but there's definitely a good deal of this hinging on the water supply for Crimea. 

 

Crimea doesn't have any fresh water, which was never a serious problem since there's a large river and a canal to bring water south across the peninsula from it. When it was all Ukraine, obviously there were no issues. Then Russia took Crimea and started moving soldiers there and building resorts, etc. there, so Ukraine just blocked off the canal.

 

The reservoirs held for a while but were growing dangerously low last year, which is probably one of the factors that prompted Russia to kick this off right now. And you'll note that one of the first targets they went for was the town of Kherson on the Dnieper, an area that is absolutely critical if they want to keep that canal open. 

 

At this point, given that long "we're pivoting to Donbas" thinkpiece that they've publicly put out, it seems clear that Putin has a goal to tuck his tail between his legs and retreat to the Donbas, extend the pre-war battle lines out to the edge of the DNR and LNR "republics," and call it a day. But that's not all he needs - he absolutely must retain control over the Kherson Oblast, at least up to the town of Tavriisk where the canal starts. That's why Mariupol is being bombed into oblivion - he needs to go into peace talks with that land bridge, extending as far as Kherson, under his control. 

[Section_31]

7 hours ago, DJLJ said:

I have been very surprised how well the US intelligence has been. 9/11 wasn’t spotted, they didn’t spot there was no mass destruction weapons in Iraq etc. however here they have been spot on. Very very good intelligence. 

They had intel on both those things. Bush was given a dossier pre 911 and did nothing, with Iraq the suspicion was they were pressured to come up with something that would fit the narrative Bush and Cheney wanted.

 

Also, because Russia is so corrupt it must be an absolute dream for an intelligence service.

 

One of Bin Laden's lieutenants would take a bullet rather than spill the beans, all you'd have to do with one of Putin's people is buy him a Vauxhall Corsa and a packet of scampi fries.

[cochyn]

3 hours ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

This might be a good sign, actually.

 

The Russians pivoting to say "nah, we never wanted Kyiv anyway, we were always after the Donbas" is the first step to Putin admitting defeat. I mean, he's like Trump in that he'll never actually admit defeat, but moving back to the Donbas where they started and then claiming a win would be one of the most hollow "victories" in the last couple of centuries.

 

The argument is that he suffered 20k or more casualties and turned the nation of Ukraine irrevocably away from ever wanting anything to do with Russia again and in exchange he gained ... a canal of water for Crimea and extended the battle lines in the Donbas a few dozen kilometers into Ukraine from where they were? And that's if he actually gets what he wants - no telling what the Ukrainian response is likely to be.

 

Reminds me of the old fable about the fox and the grapes. The fox really wants the juicy grapes, but he jumps at them a few times and they're too high. So, wishing to cover up his failure, he says "never wanted those sour grapes anyhow" and stalks off with his head held high.

Great post, I appreciate your view on this whole situation.

 

I wonder if Putin will be lucky to come out of this with his head still attached to his shoulders? I'm sure his Praetorian Guard and the FSB have a far clearer picture of how this calamity has unfolded. His army certainly (and painfully) does having been sent into a stupid war so ill equipped.  I'm guessing that- within the Kremlin at least - this is a national embarrassment, surely? 

 

Or do you think the combined 'authorities' will just come together to gloss over this in the name of keeping Putin in his seat and the money flowing into their Swiss bank accounts? He would then spin this as a win and begin a massive 'reinvestment drive' in his 'victorious' army. Such a deceit of the Russian people would literally rely on fooling all the people all the time for years to come..

[torahboy]

10 hours ago, M_B said:

It's almost as if people are speculating and discussing stuff on a discussion forum. Heaven forbid! You'll be down the pub next, telling people not to talk.

And my contribution to that 'discussion' is to remark on how many participants appear to understand how a conflict is progressing based on, mainly, stories from a media reporting for one side. If you wish to dissect and discuss the complexities of military manoeuvres in eastern Europe then by all means do. I don't think I suggested that such conversation and speculation should be curatiled. But, if in the pub this afternoon, someone starts chatting about Russia's tactical decimation of Mariupol then I might just be tempted to tell them to 'Shut the fuck up and watch the horse racing'

[SasaS]

Well, it is a thread dedicated to this topic. If I come to the cricket thread to ridicule people for having an interest in cricket and discussing it based on what they read in the media, having personally not made any other contribution, that would be pretty weird.  

[Pureblood]

Cricket, eh? I was back in the nets last night; so much spin I was ripping a hole in the space-time continuum. 

[Rico1304]

4 minutes ago, Pureblood said:

Cricket, eh? I was back in the nets last night; so much spin I was ripping a hole in the space-time continuum. 

I bet the batsman was…oh, sorry.  I forgot. 

[VERBAL DIARRHEA]

6 minutes ago, Pureblood said:

Cricket, eh? I was back in the nets last night; so much spin I was ripping a hole in the space-time continuum. 

Liar liar shit jeans on fire….

[dockers_strike]

At some point in any conflict such as this, either one side emerges victorious with the other defeated or, some sort of compromise is reached between the parties.

 

I said previously, I dont believe the conspiracy theories that Putin advanced on Kyiv to distract the Ukrainian forces away from the Dondas area because that was all Putin really wanted.

 

Nevertheless, in a war of attrition, Putin could just continue to pour men, equipment and long range missiles into Ukraine in the belief of grinding them down and suing for peace on his terms.

 

But, that ignores all the equipment NATO \ US \ the West is also pouring into Ukraine, the loss of Russian men and equipment plus the punishing sanctions waged on the Russia economy which may trigger increasing unrest by the Russian population.

 

The choices for Putin are basically continue as is which just seems to be an almost stalemate of not achieving any objective, escalate the combat by using WMD which, despite provarication by NATO etc would potentially draw them into conflict with Russia's already overstretched military or, as the UK Marines say, make a tactical withdrawal, in other words retreat to say holding the Crimea and the 2 separatist regions in the east of Ukraine.

 

NATO etc would have to hold their noses and allow Putin the concession of declaring this a 'victory' to give him his face saving out.

 

Im not so sure Zelensky would see allowing Putin this further land grab as acceptable however.

 

And that would surely where the UN and diplomats would come in and do their job of jaw jaw to bring the fighting to an end.

 

Of course, Im no military strategist or politician. Im just an old fart sat a few thousand miles away admittedly reading mainly only one side's information on this war 'pontificating' but nonetheless, hoping it ends very soon.

[DJLJ]

seventh Russian general killed. They’re losing them faster than troops and machinery. 
 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60807538

[polymerpunkah]

Russia's newest General:

 

 

The larger question is sanctions and the ongoing economic relationship: eg EU weaning itself off Russia's energy resources.

 

Will they decide they're going to do as much damage to Putin and Russia as they can. Continue the sanctions; increase them if possible.

 

And cut as many economic ties as possible.

 

 

[Pureblood]

 

[Section_31]

Seven generals killed and one run over in a tank by his own men. That's amazing.

[Anubis]

The Russian Embassy in France. Shots fired. Shots fired.

 

[polymerpunkah]

On 25/02/2022 at 19:05, polymerpunkah said:

A limited invasion leading to negotiations and a change in government/commitment not to join NATO?

 

I can't figure out why he'd invade and take over the country.

 

Even if they wouldn't meet with the same level/type of opposition as they did in Afghanistan, occupying powers rarely enjoy themselves much.

 

 

 

 

 

I was thinking more along the lines of post-takeover opposition, as I didn't think the Ukraine would be capable of withstanding an invasion.

 

Shows what I know.

 

And perhaps what the Russians "knew", as well.

 

We both know different now.

[dockers_strike]

Mixed messages from Biden and his White House. From the telegraph Live updates.

 

US president Joe Biden warned that Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power" in a rousing speech to crowds in Warsaw.

 

Speaking on a visit to the Polish capital, Mr Biden said the Russian president was a "dictator bent on rebuilding an empire" but he would "never erase the people's love for liberty".

 

He said that Mr Putin's days ought to be numbered, adding: "For God's sake - this man cannot remain in power."

 

However, the White House quickly intervened following Mr Biden's speech to say he was not calling for a regime change in Russia.

Multiple powerful explosions thought to be caused by missiles struck the Ukrainian city of Lviv, just 40 miles away from the border with Poland, during Mr Biden's visit.

 

Mr Biden said memories of World War II were still fresh in the minds of some older generations, and Mr Putin's invasion of Ukraine threatens to bring "decades of war".

 

The US president said Europe must steel itself for a "long fight ahead", as the conflict could take months to resolve.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/26/ukraine-news-live-russia-war-latest-putin-weapons-zelensky/