Should the UK remain a member of the EU

[AngryOfTuebrook]

12 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

I'd love to be your shopkeeper, I'd mark everything up 4%.

That's how it works! 

 

You've spent ages farting on about inflation and you don't even know what it is.

[Gnasher]

4 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

Fuck off.

Well what's different in her economic policy of low inflation to yours?  Low inflation was the bedrook of her economic plan, it proved to be fucking disastrous as you well know.

 

After all the pain and mass unemployment she didn't actually didn't get inflation lower than 5%... So why the fuck are you crowing on about a poxy 4%. Tied yourself to EU capitalism eh.

 

https://thatchercrisisyears.com/2020/01/13/unemployment-inflation/

[Gnasher]

27 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

That's how it works! 

 

You've spent ages farting on about inflation and you don't even know what it is.

I think your the one who needs a few lessons, seems you've been watching fox news and Ted Cruz. If 4% inflation is really the hill you want to die on that's your problem.

 

Your economic views are wrong, not only wrong but dangerously wrong...  history has disproved them time and time again, they led this country to ruin and through millions on the dole, that's what stagnation does, that's what low inflation does.

 

Meanwhile they're taking a different approach to yours (thank god) over the States....

 

 

He forgot to mention the 5.5% inflation, why? because it's not really important.

[Bruce Spanner]

Boom!

 

More Brexit bonuses!

 

Have that you daft remoaners...

 

And we haven't even got to the vet shortages yet which is going to really fuck things up.

 

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/october-1-brexit-red-tape-shortages-imports-eu-8204172

 

'More food shortages and higher prices are likely to be the result of new Brexit checks that come into effect from October 1

 

It has been a gloomy week on the sunlit uplands of sovereign Britain as fears grow about a new deadline likely to cause more Brexit-driven chaos.

 

From October 1, animal and plant products being imported into the UK from the EU will require extra paperwork and border checks. An optimistic government spokesman has said they “hope these checks will be smooth and efficient”, but the smoothness and efficiency of the rest of the post-Brexit process so far means those reassurances are being taken with a pillar of salt.

 

The food industry says higher prices are virtually guaranteed, as European producers pass on the cost of this red tape to British consumers. And they warn too that as just-in-time supply lines are disrupted by the new arrangements, more food shortages could be on the way too.

 

As for “smooth and efficient”, in Portsmouth attempts to set up a border control post to conduct the new checks are being hampered by a lack of government funding and an absence of knowledge about how much will flow through it.

 

The city council claims to have been given only £500,000 to cover the costs of 30 new staff, £2million below what is needed. A spokesman told the local paper: “I have some confidence we will be carrying out the checks by October but I can offer absolutely no guarantees about our readiness at this point”.

 

There is a similar story in Hull and Goole, where the chief port health inspector has warned that because so much imported produce must be distributed on the day it arrives to avoid spoiling: “We are looking at possible 24/7 shift working to enable checks to be completed… If we don’t complete the documentary checks before arrival then we will have immediate backlogs.”

 

The new arrangements have an extra twist, too. From October 1, both exports and imports of animal products will require inspection and certification from a vet. Worrying, then, that there is a huge shortage of these in the UK at present, for reasons that you might suspect.

 

Yes, it turns out that we have been reliant on a flow of qualified vets from European countries - between 80-100 a month used to arrive in the UK. But since the end of the transition period, only 20 per month are coming in, leaving us with a significant shortfall just as we need foreign vets most.

 

How’s that for Brexit smoothness and efficiency?'

 

 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

1 hour ago, Gnasher said:

I think your the one who needs a few lessons, seems you've been watching fox news and Ted Cruz. If 4% inflation is really the hill you want to die on that's your problem.

 

Your economic views are wrong, not only wrong but dangerously wrong...  history has disproved them time and time again, they led this country to ruin and through millions on the dole, that's what stagnation does, that's what low inflation does.

 

Meanwhile they're taking a different approach to yours (thank god) over the States....

 

 

He forgot to mention the 5.5% inflation, why? because it's not really important.

Alright, Professor, correct these views.

1.  When prices rise by x% it's called x% inflation.

2.  People with less money are less able to cope with price increases.

3.  Workers whose pay rises are lower than the rate of inflation are, in fact, getting a real-terms pay cut.

[Gnasher]

30 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

Alright, Professor, correct these views.

1.  When prices rise by x% it's called x% inflation.

2.  People with less money are less able to cope with price increases.

3.  Workers whose pay rises are lower than the rate of inflation are, in fact, getting a real-terms pay cut.

Inflation is normally caused by wage rises, wage rises are normally the result of economic investment/and or growth. Inflation gives confidence to investors as they know their investments are unlikely to lose value, investment leads to futher employment. 

 

Deflation is the fear.  

 

On point three, an awful lot of these workers have not received any form of pay rise for up to 20 years because of economic stagnation and low inflation, the wage rises not only match or override the temporary rise in inflation they also fuel further economic growth.

 

Example, building site labourer receives 8% pay rise this year, inflation rises to a temporary 4%.. Building site labourer spends his pay rise on hospitality so aiding the local economy, whereas before his wage rise, building site labourer received no pay rise but still had to contend with 2.5% inflation. 

 

Edit, the above is what Biden is doing over the States, its working.

[Gnasher]

1 hour ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

Alright, Professor, correct these views.

1.  When prices rise by x% it's called x% inflation.

2.  People with less money are less able to cope with price increases.

3.  Workers whose pay rises are lower than the rate of inflation are, in fact, getting a real-terms pay cut.

Good analysis of the inflation debate hitting the States...

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/08/joe-biden-spending-plan-inflation-covid-economy

[AngryOfTuebrook]

1 hour ago, Gnasher said:

Inflation is normally caused by wage rises,

I got this far before shouting "WRONG!" at the laptop.

 

Inflation is caused by demand outstripping supply.  In a "robust economy", this could be because people are getting decent payrises and have more spending power (so, demand gets a boost).  In a fucked up economy - let's say, to pick a completely random example, one that's not properly emerged from a global pandemic - supply is constricted by the inability to provide goods, etc.

 

https://www.economicshelp.org/macroeconomics/inflation/causes-inflation/ 

 

Summary of Main causes of inflation

1. Demand-pull inflation – aggregate demand growing faster than aggregate supply (growth too rapid)
2. Cost-push inflation – For example, higher oil prices feeding through into higher costs.
3. Devaluation – increasing cost of imported goods, and also the boost to domestic demand.
4. Rising wages – higher wages increase firms costs and increase consumers’ disposable income to spend more.
5. Expectations of inflation – causes workers to demand wage increases and firms to push up prices.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

1 hour ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

Alright, Professor, correct these views.

1.  When prices rise by x% it's called x% inflation.

2.  People with less money are less able to cope with price increases.

3.  Workers whose pay rises are lower than the rate of inflation are, in fact, getting a real-terms pay cut.

 

1 hour ago, Gnasher said:

Inflation is normally caused by wage rises, wage rises are normally the result of economic investment/and or growth. Inflation gives confidence to investors as they know their investments are unlikely to lose value, investment leads to futher employment. 

 

Deflation is the fear.  

 

On point three, an awful lot of these workers have not received any form of pay rise for up to 20 years because of economic stagnation and low inflation, the wage rises not only match or override the temporary rise in inflation they also fuel further economic growth.

 

Example, building site labourer receives 8% pay rise this year, inflation rises to a temporary 4%.. Building site labourer spends his pay rise on hospitality so aiding the local economy, whereas before his wage rise, building site labourer received no pay rise but still had to contend with 2.5% inflation. 

 

Edit, the above is what Biden is doing over the States, its working.

You didn't address any of the three points.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

2 hours ago, Gnasher said:

Your economic views are wrong, not only wrong but dangerously wrong...  history has disproved them time and time again, they led this country to ruin and through millions on the dole, that's what stagnation does, that's what low inflation does.

 

 

I'd be fascinated to know what you imagine my economic views are.

[Rico1304]

4 hours ago, No2 said:

Gnasher PM me where you're getting the 5% interest rates, I'll have some that.

#metoo

[Rico1304]

12 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

I got this far before shouting "WRONG!" at the laptop.

 

Inflation is caused by demand outstripping supply.  In a "robust economy", this could be because people are getting decent payrises and have more spending power (so, demand gets a boost).  In a fucked up economy - let's say, to pick a completely random example, one that's not properly emerged from a global pandemic - supply is constricted by the inability to provide goods, etc.

 

https://www.economicshelp.org/macroeconomics/inflation/causes-inflation/ 

 

Summary of Main causes of inflation

1. Demand-pull inflation – aggregate demand growing faster than aggregate supply (growth too rapid)
2. Cost-push inflation – For example, higher oil prices feeding through into higher costs.
3. Devaluation – increasing cost of imported goods, and also the boost to domestic demand.
4. Rising wages – higher wages increase firms costs and increase consumers’ disposable income to spend more.
5. Expectations of inflation – causes workers to demand wage increases and firms to push up prices.

I’m beginning to think Gnasher didn’t go to a fancy school like Dr Nowt.  

[Gnasher]

7 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

I'd be fascinated to know what you imagine my economic views are.

You've already stated your concerns over 4% inflation, you've even mentioned them in relation to wage rises. That's a very 'monetary' veiw of economics normally endorsed by the right. 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

5 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

You've already stated your concerns over 4% inflation, you've even mentioned them in relation to wage rises. That's a very 'monetary' veiw of economics normally endorsed by the right. 

You haven't understood a word (which is odd, because it's not difficult).

[Gnasher]

18 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

I got this far before shouting "WRONG!" at the laptop.

 

Inflation is caused by demand outstripping supply.  In a "robust economy", this could be because people are getting decent payrises and have more spending power (so, demand gets a boost).  In a fucked up economy - let's say, to pick a completely random example, one that's not properly emerged from a global pandemic - supply is constricted by the inability to provide goods, etc.

 

https://www.economicshelp.org/macroeconomics/inflation/causes-inflation/ 

 

Summary of Main causes of inflation

1. Demand-pull inflation – aggregate demand growing faster than aggregate supply (growth too rapid)
2. Cost-push inflation – For example, higher oil prices feeding through into higher costs.
3. Devaluation – increasing cost of imported goods, and also the boost to domestic demand.
4. Rising wages – higher wages increase firms costs and increase consumers’ disposable income to spend more.
5. Expectations of inflation – causes workers to demand wage increases and firms to push up prices.

Yeah as I said... inflation is ' normally " linked with wage rises...from your link above...number 4..

 

Stop acting like an over squeezed lemon.

[Gnasher]

12 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

#metoo

And... here come the tories, Number 1 and his mate Number 2... wanting high interest rates to stash their money?

[Gnasher]

3 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

You haven't understood a word (which is odd, because it's not difficult).

Low inflation, voodoo economics Angry, leads to no good, 

 

https://thatchercrisisyears.com/2020/01/13/unemployment-inflation/

 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

16 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Yeah as I said... inflation is ' normally " linked with wage rises...from your link above...number 4..

 

Stop acting like an over squeezed lemon.

"Normally" would have it as the number one reason.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

13 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Low inflation, voodoo economics Angry, leads to no good, 

 

https://thatchercrisisyears.com/2020/01/13/unemployment-inflation/

 

I'm not going to repeat any posts. If you want to understand them, you can read them. If you're happy to misunderstand them, there's not a lot I can do.

[Gnasher]

Don't have nightmares,

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a7c101be-7361-4307-981d-b8edf6d002be

[Gnasher]

4 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

"Normally" would have it as the number one reason.

Yeah maybe I should have made myself clearer but as the main focus of debate has been the correlations between wages and inflation that's the part I was concentrating on. Wage rises (amongst other things like supply shortages and demand for goods etc as you rightly pointed out) have always been a factor when inflation rises, its normally a sign the economy is experiencing demand, they're all inter linked.  

 

Anyway as for inflation itself, slightly rising single digit inflation is nothing to worry about, unless your Keith Joseph or Ted Cruz.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a7c101be-7361-4307-981d-b8edf6d002be

[AngryOfTuebrook]

You really don't give a fuck for low paid workers, do you? Or is it only workers in some sectors who are deserving of your concern?

[Chairman Meow]

4 hours ago, Gnasher said:

 

We are not starting from 0, we do not have 0% inflation, we have an inflation rate of 2.5%, so we already have 2.5% and we've had approximately that rate for some time, we've been living with that rate for some time, so when the rate rises by 1.5 per cent it's a rise of... you guessed it 1.5%.. 

 

I'd love to be your shopkeeper, I'd mark everything up 4%.

You're misunderstanding the maths here I think, yes you are correct that the rate has only increased by 1.5%. However that doesn't mean that prices would increase by 1.5%, 4% inflation for that year means 4% increase that year. 

 

£10 multiplied by 1.025 = £10.25 at a 2.5% inflation rate.

£10 multiplied by 1.04 = £10.40 at a 4% inflation rate.

 

I.e. on a year by year basis @2.5% on an item that costs £10 to start with

Year 1: Item goes to £10.25

Year 2: Item goes to £10.506

Year 3: Item goes to £10.768

If inflation goes to 4 %

Year 4: Item goes to £11.198 (10.768 * 1.04), it does not go up in price by 1.5%, it goes up 4%.

 

The other thing is that the increase compounds as well, so a sustained higher rate of inflation can potentially be way worse, at a rate of 2.5% the price of something would double every 28.8 years. At 4% that drops to the price doubling every 18 years. If you start getting into double digit rates then price increases start to get very bad and if wages don't keep up you have serious problems.

 

At best, unless wage increases are at an equal or higher rate than the rate of inflation people are just having their cost of living increase a bit slower than if they stayed the same.

 

For the record I don't necessarily think inflation is a bad thing, in fact there are arguments for it being a good thing, assuming people wages actually do increase as a result.

 

It always pissed me off when politicians used to use the "real terms" bullshit, claiming people were better off in real terms at a time when my wages stayed totally static year on year while all of my bills increased.

 

I'd also say at this stage nothing can be pinned on being down to Brexit as a result of this, Covid thrown into the mix as well is doing some fucked up things to various markets. It will be years before anyone can definitively say anything good or bad for the economy as a whole as far as leaving the EU is concerned. 

 

A 4% increase this year, in comparison to it being just under 1% last year may not even be anything to worry about and purely an anomaly as a result of lockdown easing and people going a bit mental with spending. 

 

In the areas I work in, used car prices have gone absolutely fucking mental as new cars aren't coming through due to the silicon shortage. PC component prices have done the same, so much so that we've built a new machine for doing fluid/aerodynamic simulations and can't actually use the power of the PC as we can't get a power supply that can run all 64 cores on the processor. 

 

Hotel wise, I suspect the wage rises are very temporary and purely due to the increased demand right now. I look after the bookings system and website for a hotel that a friend of mine owns, he's not increased wages but has had to take on more staff purely because the demand is higher than we've ever seen. Since reopening at the end of full lockdown iirc we've only had the equivalent of about 8 rooms not booked (meaning 8 nights where one room hasn't been booked). We've never seen it like that ever before, and likely never will. It's a one time thing and very temporary. 

 

One definite Brexit problem I have found is selling car parts into Europe. We have probably lost one customer entirely as a result, one customer is borderline and the other is probably OK, but only because we've been dealing with him for about 15 years now.

 

As a final note, as you don't seem to see what he is saying, Angry is not saying he's against pay rises or that they are bad, he is saying that a pay rise at less than the rate of inflation is in effect a wage cut in just the same way that stagnant wages are.

[Gnasher]

17 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

You really don't give a fuck for low paid workers, do you? Or is it only workers in some sectors who are deserving of your concern?

??? What the fuck are you on about?  Which ones am I concerned/not concerned with? I'd like all low paid workers in every sector to receive a pay rise.

 

Unfortunately under the UK/ EU low stagnation/low inflation system a lot of these low paid workers haven't received a rise for almost 20 years and now they are receiving rises a lot of people seem upset.

 

[Gnasher]

13 minutes ago, Chairman Meow said:

You're misunderstanding the maths here I think, yes you are correct that the rate has only increased by 1.5%. However that doesn't mean that prices would increase by 1.5%, 4% inflation for that year means 4% increase that year. 

 

£10 multiplied by 1.025 = £10.25 at a 2.5% inflation rate.

£10 multiplied by 1.04 = £10.40 at a 4% inflation rate.

 

I.e. on a year by year basis @2.5% on an item that costs £10 to start with

Year 1: Item goes to £10.25

Year 2: Item goes to £10.506

Year 3: Item goes to £10.768

If inflation goes to 4 %

Year 4: Item goes to £11.198 (10.768 * 1.04), it does not go up in price by 1.5%, it goes up 4%.

 

The other thing is that the increase compounds as well, so a sustained higher rate of inflation can potentially be way worse, at a rate of 2.5% the price of something would double every 28.8 years. At 4% that drops to the price doubling every 18 years. If you start getting into double digit rates then price increases start to get very bad and if wages don't keep up you have serious problems.

 

At best, unless wage increases are at an equal or higher rate than the rate of inflation people are just having their cost of living increase a bit slower than if they stayed the same.

 

For the record I don't necessarily think inflation is a bad thing, in fact there are arguments for it being a good thing, assuming people wages actually do increase as a result.

 

It always pissed me off when politicians used to use the "real terms" bullshit, claiming people were better off in real terms at a time when my wages stayed totally static year on year while all of my bills increased.

 

I'd also say at this stage nothing can be pinned on being down to Brexit as a result of this, Covid thrown into the mix as well is doing some fucked up things to various markets. It will be years before anyone can definitively say anything good or bad for the economy as a whole as far as leaving the EU is concerned. 

 

A 4% increase this year, in comparison to it being just under 1% last year may not even be anything to worry about and purely an anomaly as a result of lockdown easing and people going a bit mental with spending. 

 

In the areas I work in, used car prices have gone absolutely fucking mental as new cars aren't coming through due to the silicon shortage. PC component prices have done the same, so much so that we've built a new machine for doing fluid/aerodynamic simulations and can't actually use the power of the PC as we can't get a power supply that can run all 64 cores on the processor. 

 

Hotel wise, I suspect the wage rises are very temporary and purely due to the increased demand right now. I look after the bookings system and website for a hotel that a friend of mine owns, he's not increased wages but has had to take on more staff purely because the demand is higher than we've ever seen. Since reopening at the end of full lockdown iirc we've only had the equivalent of about 8 rooms not booked. We've never seen it like that ever before, and likely never will. It's a one time thing and very temporary. 

 

One definite Brexit problem I have found is selling car parts into Europe. We have probably lost one customer entirely as a result, one customer is borderline and the other is probably OK, but only because we've been dealing with him for about 15 years now.

 

As a final note, as you don't seem to see what he is saying, Angry is not saying he's against pay rises of that they are bad, he is saying that a pay rise at less than the rate of inflation is in effect a wage cut in just the same way that stagnant wages are.

I understand what you're saying but can I just clarify on 4% is 4% this year, yes it is but inflation has not only just been invented, ie we've had a level of inflation in all the previous years so the 4% is not an almighty shock, we had and lived with an inflation rate of 2.5 the previous year's, it's as you say, a 1.5 increase on the year before when everyone also payed that years interest of 2.5% so although you'll pay the 4% the rise you'll feel is only 1.5.... which is what I tried to explain to Angry.

 

Edit, as for Angry and the pay rises, I've explained above a building site labourer receiving an 8% pay rise is still up after inflation going up to 4% especially compared to the year before where he received no pay rise but still had to contend with 2.5% inflation.

 

As for the staffing shortages/pay rises being temporary, who knows? I'd guess some will but a lot won't.