Russia v Ukraine

[M_B]

4 hours ago, polymerpunkah said:

If he uses either he makes Russia a pariah.

 

And any use of nuclear costs them their UN veto and their role in the world represents. It also collapses their economy as neither China nor India can or will carry on business as usual.

 

They'll put a bullet in his head before they let him do that. 

 

 

Nobody can remove them from the UN or remove their veto.

 

China and India will continue to trade. Business is business. And China will parrot the same line that a country is entitled to do whatever it takes to defend itself, despite the obvious irony.

[SasaS]

Russia has already annexed Crimea, which has been attacked by Ukrainians (as did Russia proper) and Russia didn't use nukes. What difference does it make if there is some piece of paper stating this is Russia nobody else recognizes as opposed using nukes up until now? What was holding Putin back?

He is willing to push thing to the brink of the World War Special Military Operation III and completely isolate Russia, with immense domestic political risk, but at the same time, he is a stickler for proper paperwork?

[M_B]

Yeah good point. I guess the difference is that Russia are losing now. 

 

Putin does not want to lose this war. He will use whatever is at his disposal to win unless he is removed first. 

[Funkasy]

If he uses tactical nukes, whats to stop western countries to the give same weapons to ukraine? This will fuck up the world, but would it not be a likely scenario?

[M_B]

Indeed. It would be a political decision to do that, and I doubt it would have widespread support. Britain doesn't have any thankfully, so Liz Truss can't kill us all. Not yet anyway.

[Numero Veinticinco]

1 hour ago, Funkasy said:

If he uses tactical nukes, whats to stop western countries to the give same weapons to ukraine? This will fuck up the world, but would it not be a likely scenario?

 If he uses nukes, that brings in the US and UK into the war via treaty. So, ya know, shit gon' get spicy. 

[SasaS]

1 hour ago, M_B said:

Yeah good point. I guess the difference is that Russia are losing now. 

 

Putin does not want to lose this war. He will use whatever is at his disposal to win unless he is removed first. 

It's true that for the regime, this is an existential fight, and predominantly one of their own making, after painting themselves into a corner. But unlike in Hitler's Germany, it is not so for the rest of Russia. So crossing the nuclear red line may eventually lose him the war at home. Plus, I don't think using a tactical nuclear strike would necessarily win him the war. We don't know what the international reaction would be, but surely even the most fervent western tankie or a Putinist right winger would then have to stop and reconsider their alliances.

 

I don't understand why so many people see Russia losing a war as something unthinkable, politically and militarily, they have lost wars before.

[M_B]

12 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

 If he uses nukes, that brings in the US and UK into the war via treaty. So, ya know, shit gon' get spicy. 

You mean the Budapest Memorandum?

 

That agreement states that Russia can defend itself, which is ofcourse how they are going to present it.

[Numero Veinticinco]

3 minutes ago, M_B said:

You mean the Budapest Memorandum?

 

That agreement states that Russia can defend itself, which is ofcourse how they are going to present it.

Not when it comes to nuclear weapons, unless they're struck first. Even then, it's not relevant to whether or not the UK and US become involved. And by involved I mean via Security Council action. I mean, they might want to pretend they've been nuked by a non-nuclear state or that they didn't attack first, but nobody is going to believe it or go along with it. I mean, there's no way the world sits by and lets Russia use nukes. 

[M_B]

19 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

Not when it comes to nuclear weapons, unless they're struck first. Even then, it's not relevant to whether or not the UK and US become involved. And by involved I mean via Security Council action. I mean, they might want to pretend they've been nuked by a non-nuclear state or that they didn't attack first, but nobody is going to believe it or go along with it. I mean, there's no way the world sits by and lets Russia use nukes. 

The memorandum states that none of their weapons may be used against Ukraine except in self defence. It also states Security Council action will be sought if Ukraine is the victim of an act of aggression using nuclear weapons.

 

Russia will argue it is acting in self defence and will veto Security Council action. So the US and its allies would have to take action regardless.

 

I agree it's a gamble on Putin's part. I just don't understand why everyone assumes he wouldn't decide to use tactical nukes. Everything is pointing to Russia positioning itself to be able to do just that - that's why they are rushing through the elections.

[SasaS]

He isn't positioning himself the use nukes, he is primarily admitting Russia cannot win this war with current manpower and without changing its character. He needs to make it a homeland defence - liberation war.  Special military operation is over, it failed.

[Guest]

maybe he has seen Stranger Things and is considering contacting the Upside Down?

[Numero Veinticinco]

44 minutes ago, M_B said:

The memorandum states that none of their weapons may be used against Ukraine except in self defence.

I know what it states MB, I've got the document open in front of me. It doesn't say they can use nukes in self-defence of any other non-nuclear strike. It actually says about not using nukes on weapons unless attacked by a nuclear state, which Ukraine isn't. It's all about what happens if they do, without being struck with nukes first. In any case, there's nobody buying that Russia didn't attack first. They did, they already admitted this special operation. There's no way, no matter what it says in the memorandum, that Putin gets away with using nuclear weapons. He knows WW3 is started at that point, and he'll end up going down in history alongside Hitler. They've been talking relentlessly about nuking London, so the minute a nuke goes off anywhere... all bets are off.

[Bjornebye]

18 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

I know what it states MB, I've got the document open in front of me. It doesn't say they can use nukes in self-defence of any other non-nuclear strike. It actually says about not using nukes on weapons unless attacked by a nuclear state, which Ukraine isn't. It's all about what happens if they do, without being struck with nukes first. In any case, there's nobody buying that Russia didn't attack first. They did, they already admitted this special operation. There's no way, no matter what it says in the memorandum, that Putin gets away with using nuclear weapons. He knows WW3 is started at that point, and he'll end up going down in history alongside Hitler. They've been talking relentlessly about nuking London, so the minute a nuke goes off anywhere... all bets are off.

The Russians own about a 3rd of London don't they? Can't see them nuking it. 

[M_B]

3 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

I know what it states MB, I've got the document open in front of me.

So you can see these bits then;

 

From section 2: "none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense" (Russia will claim self-defense)

From section 4: "to seek immediate UN Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine.......if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression.... in which nuclear weapons are used" (Again russia will claim it's an act of self defence not aggression, and will veto anything at the Security Council)

From section 5: "not to use nuclear weapons.....except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a state in association or alliance with a nuclear weapons state."

 

3 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

There's no way, no matter what it says in the memorandum, that Putin gets away with using nuclear weapons. He knows WW3 is started at that point.

That's my point - he doesn't know that at all. If he gets desperate then I think he would gamble that America would not respond.

 

[M_B]

Just now, Bjornebye said:

The Russians own about a 3rd of London don't they? Can't see them nuking it. 

I'm not talking about Strategic nukes here. I'm talking about small battlefield nukes to stop a Ukrainian advance. Putin isn't going to nuke a Western city.

[Numero Veinticinco]

3 minutes ago, M_B said:

So you can see these bits then;

 

 

Yep, I see the whole thing. It's way better when you read the whole thing. I can point out relevant parts to you if you feel the need. 

[M_B]

Just now, Numero Veinticinco said:

Yep, I see the whole thing. It's way better when you read the whole thing. I can point out relevant parts to you if you feel the need. 

Sure, if you think it's relevant given Russia's veto of anything in the Security Council.

[Anubis]

Any truth to this?

 

 

[ZonkoVille77]

25 minutes ago, Anubis said:

Any truth to this?

 

 

 

I've read a few of their tweets before and they come across as total fuckwits. 

[TheHowieLama]

Are they sirius?

[cochyn]

Life under occupation.

 

Day 212. Lyptsi. - by Alona / cryptodrftng (substack.com)

 

Harrowing.

[DJLJ]

https://www.ohchr.org/en/statements/2022/09/update-chair-independent-international-commission-inquiry-ukraine-51st-session

 

Based on the evidence gathered by the Commission, it has concluded that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine.

well colour me surprised…

[Pete]

30 minutes ago, DJLJ said:

https://www.ohchr.org/en/statements/2022/09/update-chair-independent-international-commission-inquiry-ukraine-51st-session

 

Based on the evidence gathered by the Commission, it has concluded that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine.

well colour me surprised…

Sherlock. Shit no.

[polymerpunkah]

If he's allowed to use nukes, in any form, then every other country in the world will want nukes, as the only defense to nukes is nukes. 

 

I think that's the real threat he's making.

 

No sensible politician can want/allow that.

 

And they can't give in to his blackmail, either, or he, and others, will just make more demands.