Summer 2018 Transfer Thread

[Paul]

I think anyone hoping for Alison will be disappointed. So long as Karius doesn't have a couple of complete mares before the end of the season i reckon he will be the number 1 next year and the money used elsewhere.

 

I really think that another attacker will be viewed as a better use of resources and will ultimately win us more points. Its going to be a long season next year after a world cup and we cannot expect the from three to play 60 games if we get back in the champions league and make a proper shot at the cups.

 

50/60 ml on a Allison or the same on Bailey or part of the fee for Pulisic etc.

I reckon that is definitely in Klopp’s mind.

[Numero Veinticinco]

I think anyone hoping for Alison will be disappointed. So long as Karius doesn't have a couple of complete mares before the end of the season i reckon he will be the number 1 next year and the money used elsewhere.

 

I really think that another attacker will be viewed as a better use of resources and will ultimately win us more points. Its going to be a long season next year after a world cup and we cannot expect the from three to play 60 games if we get back in the champions league and make a proper shot at the cups.

 

50/60 ml on a Allison or the same on Bailey or part of the fee for Pulisic etc.

 

 

And as much as I want Alisson, because he really does look excellent, I can see the logic in it. I'm not sure I'd make the same choice, but I could certainly understand why Klopp would make it. I guess we will have to wait and see on that. Karius has been very solid since replacing Mignolet. 

[The Woolster]

Just watching the Napoli - Roma game, the commentator has mentioned that Alisson hasn't been beat once from outside the box this whole league season.

 

Incredible record, that. I don't care how good Karius is looking, that is unbelievable to keep that kind of record for almost 30 games.

 

For someone who's keen on the stats, that's a surprising statement.

[Moo]

I think anyone hoping for Alison will be disappointed. So long as Karius doesn't have a couple of complete mares before the end of the season i reckon he will be the number 1 next year and the money used elsewhere.

 

I really think that another attacker will be viewed as a better use of resources and will ultimately win us more points. Its going to be a long season next year after a world cup and we cannot expect the from three to play 60 games if we get back in the champions league and make a proper shot at the cups.

 

50/60 ml on a Allison or the same on Bailey or part of the fee for Pulisic etc.

I think with the money from the Coutinho sale, plus other sales and whatever sum would have been made available in summer anyway we really should have enough for 3 top class players.

[dockers_strike]

I do not think Jurgen is going to be spending £70m - £85m on any players unless he sees those players bringing something to the team one of his current players does not have. I cannot see him paying the thick end of £80m for another striker when he sees Ings and Solanke available unless one or both want to leave for regular football. Even then I think people wanting a name are going to be disappointed.

 

I too think if Karius plays as he is doing we will not be spending much on a keeper. Even if Mignolet leaves we will likely see Ward made number two keeper.

[Moo]

I do not think Jurgen is going to be spending £70m - £85m on any players unless he sees those players bringing something to the team one of his current players does not have. I cannot see him paying the thick end of £80m for another striker when he sees Ings and Solanke available unless one or both want to leave for regular football. Even then I think people wanting a name are going to be disappointed.

 

I too think if Karius plays as he is doing we will not be spending much on a keeper. Even if Mignolet leaves we will likely see Ward made number two keeper.

I think if the money is available Klopp would spend a hefty sum on a significant upgrade like he did with VVD. And Karius can be significantly upgraded on (unless he proves otherwise between now and May). Let's not pretend Klopp is a reluctant spender, he's not a spend for spend sake type but he's clearly not shy of spending big if it's meaningful.

[Kevin D]

Let's see what they actually say, if we slap the money on the table for him.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43265299

 

 

Two Burundi officials have been imprisoned after the African country's president was allegedly "roughed up" in a football match they organised.

 

 

President Pierre Nkurunziza is a 'born-again' evangelical Christian who spends much of his time travelling Burundi with his own team, Haleluya FC. He travels with his own choir, "Komeza gusenga", which means "pray non-stop" in the local Kirundi language.

 

On 3 February, his team faced a side from the northern town of Kiremba.

Normally, the opposition is well aware they are playing against the country's president, and it has been said they go easy in the games, even perhaps allowing Nkurunziza to score.

 

But as the Kiremba team contained Congolese refugees who did not know they were playing against Burundi's president, they "attacked each time he had the ball and made him fall several times", a witness told AFP.

• From BBC News in 2007: Burundi's footballing president

 

Kiremba's administrator Cyriaque Nkezabahizi and his assistant, Michel Mutama, were imprisoned on Thursday, the news agency reports.

 

AFP cited a judicial source as saying they had been arrested on charges of "conspiracy against the president".

 

President Nkurunziza and his government were in 2017 implicated in a United Nations report that said there was strong evidence crimes against humanity had been committed in the country.

 

The report said government forces - but also opposition groups - had committed killings, torture and rape after violence erupted in 2015.

 

The turmoil was sparked after President Nkurunziza decided to run for a third term.

 

He was later re-elected in a poll that was boycotted by the opposition.

 

[Pureblood]

Because considering abstract hypotheticals about things you are interested in is a simple, consequence-free way to mentally unwind?  Talking about them with others is mildly stimulating on a basic social level?

 

 

 

 

Yeah, that's what 99.9% of people on here do with the other 99.9% of their time.  Having a moment's break from those things is probably part of why people like hopping online to talk a little nonsense.

 

ZzzzzzZZZZzzzz.

 

Just enjoy the season and the players we currently have who are doing very well.

 

There's a time and place for transfer speculation and it shouldn't clash with squeaky-bum time.

[Carvalho Diablo]

Jorginho

Pulisic

Lascelles / Alderweirald / Kabasele / another 1st choice CB

Reus / Arnautovic / quality central striker

Maybe Allison

 

Yeh, some of those would be nice.

[Kevin D]

ZzzzzzZZZZzzzz.

 

Just enjoy the season and the players we currently have who are doing very well.

 

There's a time and place for transfer speculation and it shouldn't clash with squeaky-bum time.

 

Don't dream of signing the Burindi President, no?

[dockers_strike]

I think if the money is available Klopp would spend a hefty sum on a significant upgrade like he did with VVD. And Karius can be significantly upgraded on (unless he proves otherwise between now and May). Let's not pretend Klopp is a reluctant spender, he's not a spend for spend sake type but he's clearly not shy of spending big if it's meaningful.

 

Yes I agree. I do not think he is a reluctant spender. I think his motivation if that is the right word is bringing in someone better than he already has. If he does not see that they are not coming in.

[Pidge]

ZzzzzzZZZZzzzz.

 

Just enjoy the season and the players we currently have who are doing very well.

 

There's a time and place for transfer speculation and it shouldn't clash with squeaky-bum time.

 

Feigned indifference on the internet, ouch... don't you have anything better to do with your time?

 

I'm sure we're all enjoying the season just fine, thanks.

 

And you can stick your Ferguson soundbites up your arse.

[Pureblood]

Feigned indifference on the internet, ouch... don't you have anything better to do with your time?

 

I'm sure we're all enjoying the season just fine, thanks.

 

And you can stick your Ferguson soundbites up your arse.

 

Okay, I'll join in.

 

Wooooooo, transfers!  Fuck yeah!  

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

I still like the look of this Izquierdo cat at Brighton.

[Pidge]

Okay, I'll join in.

 

Wooooooo, transfers!  Fuck yeah!  

 

It's not mandatory, you are allowed to just go to other threads if you don't like this one.

[Pureblood]

*looks out window - realises it's winter*

 

Yeah, you're right.

[El Rojo]

Don't dream of signing the Burindi President, no?

Burindinho.

[Ne Moe Imya]

For someone who's keen on the stats, that's a surprising statement.

 

Really? I don't follow the goalkeeper stats too closely, but it seems quite good to me.

 

Obviously, shots outside the box are much worse than the average punter thinks, but it's still a pretty impressive record to my mind to go 27 games without a single one scoring. Don't know what the stats are in Serie A but in England 13% of SOT from outside the box score (that's on-target only, if you factor in all shots pn- and off-target it's definitely below 5%, and depending on the season often below 4%).

 

Alisson has faced 329 shots this season, but they aren't broken down by in-box or outside-the-box. I looked up the average number of outside-the-box shots taken in Serie A for all teams and it's just over 6. So take 6 outside-the-box shots faced/game x 27 games and he's faced roughly 162 shots from outside the box.

 

Now, without having specific on-target stats I can't tell you exactly what the post-shot xG for those shots were, but if we stipulate that 3% are scored against an above-average goalkeeper that would put us in the vicinity of 4.86 expected goals.

 

Obviously this is all super imprecise, because I don't have good Serie A data, but still, conceding 0 goals instead of almost 5 is pretty amazing. Again, outside the box shots are not good shots, particularly, but either Alisson is on a very lucky streak (which is possible - the sample size isn't huge) or he's very good at stopping them.

[SammyAftershave]

Don't dream of signing the Burindi President, no?

 

We all dream of a team of Burundi Presidents.

 

 

It does have a nice murderous ring about it.

[TheHowieLama]

Really? I don't follow the goalkeeper stats too closely, but it seems quite good to me.

 

Obviously, shots outside the box are much worse than the average punter thinks, but it's still a pretty impressive record to my mind to go 27 games without a single one scoring. Don't know what the stats are in Serie A but in England 13% of SOT from outside the box score (that's on-target only, if you factor in all shots pn- and off-target it's definitely below 5%, and depending on the season often below 4%).

 

Alisson has faced 329 shots this season, but they aren't broken down by in-box or outside-the-box. I looked up the average number of outside-the-box shots taken in Serie A for all teams and it's just over 6. So take 6 outside-the-box shots faced/game x 27 games and he's faced roughly 162 shots from outside the box.

 

Now, without having specific on-target stats I can't tell you exactly what the post-shot xG for those shots were, but if we stipulate that 3% are scored against an above-average goalkeeper that would put us in the vicinity of 4.86 expected goals.

 

Obviously this is all super imprecise, because I don't have good Serie A data, but still, conceding 0 goals instead of almost 5 is pretty amazing. Again, outside the box shots are not good shots, particularly, but either Alisson is on a very lucky streak (which is possible - the sample size isn't huge) or he's very good at stopping them.

 

[The Woolster]

Really? I don't follow the goalkeeper stats too closely, but it seems quite good to me.

 

Obviously, shots outside the box are much worse than the average punter thinks, but it's still a pretty impressive record to my mind to go 27 games without a single one scoring. Don't know what the stats are in Serie A but in England 13% of SOT from outside the box score (that's on-target only, if you factor in all shots pn- and off-target it's definitely below 5%, and depending on the season often below 4%).

 

Alisson has faced 329 shots this season, but they aren't broken down by in-box or outside-the-box. I looked up the average number of outside-the-box shots taken in Serie A for all teams and it's just over 6. So take 6 outside-the-box shots faced/game x 27 games and he's faced roughly 162 shots from outside the box.

 

Now, without having specific on-target stats I can't tell you exactly what the post-shot xG for those shots were, but if we stipulate that 3% are scored against an above-average goalkeeper that would put us in the vicinity of 4.86 expected goals.

 

Obviously this is all super imprecise, because I don't have good Serie A data, but still, conceding 0 goals instead of almost 5 is pretty amazing. Again, outside the box shots are not good shots, particularly, but either Alisson is on a very lucky streak (which is possible - the sample size isn't huge) or he's very good at stopping them.

 

Its not so much about how good it may or may not be, its the lack of context. If you get into the stats/analytics side of things, its because you like to have evidence based knowledge/opinions, but you've not given us any evidence with what you've said! We have no way of judging ourselves if it is true or not, but you've given that now, so so we can have an idea ourselves.

 

And then you've stated that its "unbelievable", but much of football analytics is about probabilities, and if you have a handle on probabilities, then nothing is unbelievable, even the 100 to 1 shot.

 

We can get a bit more data from Whoscored by the way. Prior to last nights match, Alisson had saved 29 shots from outside of the area, then during the game he made 5 more saves, and on the 6th shot on target from outside the area, he finally let one in. Using your 13% we would expect about 3 goals, and using the binomial distribution we can calculate some probabilities. The issue here is that it will assume all shots had the same goal expectation, which is obviously wrong, but I don't have individual shot data either. 

 

So, before the game, the probability of no goals from 29 shots was only 2%, which is indeed impressive. However 29 shots really isn't very many at all, and the range of possible shot quality could be quite large. If the average shots he faced actually had a xG2 of 8%, the probability of 0 goals increases to 9%, which is still obviously very good, but I wouldn't class it as unbelievable.

 

After that 34th shot, the probability drops to 6% using an xG2 per shot of 8%, however after the 35th with a goal, the probability of having scored 1 goal or less is 22% (down to 5% for an xG2 per shot of 13%).   

 

He's obviously done very well, but without that extra shot information and whilst dealing with such a small sample, I don't think we can discount the possible effects of random variation. 

[G Richards]

This is all well and good, but Karius is the man. He’s coming into his own and is going to be our keeper for years to come. Came here, wobbled, bided his time, reintroduced, now going from strength to strength.

 

He will be unlucky to be replaced. He might be, as it’s a cut-throat world, but I’m thinking Klopp will take a lot of pleasure from his man finally coming good and building with him.

[The Acolyte]

This is all well and good, but Karius is the man. He’s coming into his own and is going to be our keeper for years to come. Came here, wobbled, bided his time, reintroduced, now going from strength to strength.

 

He will be unlucky to be replaced. He might be, as it’s a cut-throat world, but I’m thinking Klopp will take a lot of pleasure from his man finally coming good and building with him.

Could be having a Ming purple patch. Quality keepers of Alissons ability, available, within our price range and interested are as rare as rocking horse shit. Ming failed as he never had top class competition for his place. Don't do the same to Karius.

[Jose Jones]

I would say the Mig failed because he was never that good, nowt to do with the competition, or lack thereof. I agree though that he definitely had patches where he was good enough, but then without fail would be shit again. It does remain to be seen whether this is a similar Karius purple patch, or if he will go back to being the mess he was for much of last season and the start of this. He could even continue to improve.

[J-V]

Exactly. Mingnolet was gash before we signed him then gash after. Shock horror.