Greece

[PestiRed]

If the sensible thing was to let the banks fail why shouldn't we let Greece fail - genuine question, not a dig.

Greece is failing because it spent all its loan money on bailing out the banks and didn't have any left to sort out its own economy.

[PestiRed]

I think you'll find that to be a gross simplification of what they actually said.

Nope, it really isn't

 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4b077fd0-6431-11e4-8ade-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3eYgz8so1

 

Nice to see that you've reverted back to trying to avoid providing any justification for the lies that you tell

[Trumo]

Greece's major mistake was not spending the original loans on making themselves self-sufficient and getting a couple of nuclear missiles

 

They are great believers in destiny, the Greeks. They have a saying - "The future's not set. There's no feta but what we make for ourselves".

[Jairzinho]

 

By any metric, Spain and Portugal are doing better following their adoption of fiscal sanity. You can obfuscate, but them's the facts.

 

No. No they are not the facts.

[Stu Monty]

 

. "Unless of course "balanced finances" means higher unemployment and lower output than previously."

 

In this case it means not being bankrupt. Slovenia and Slovakia, countries with lower standards of living than Greece were forced to bail Greece out and stand to lose money if it defaults.

 

I know the situation is complex and it has its history. But thing that always pissed me off with Greeks is that you just cannot get them to admit that it may be their fault in any way. You ask them about their corrupt political elites that were taking turns in the government for decades, crony capitalism, maybe governments paying certain segments of society above the means in order to extend the "ownership" of the culture of overspending, no, no, no, it's always the Germans, IMF, international financial moguls,they were just piling on more and more debt on the poor unsuspecting Greece.

 

 

Isn't the reality that they actually see many of them as being reasons they accept and as such elected a government to steer them away from those problems?

 

Hence their rejection of a corrupt and anti-democratic international finance agenda.

[Stu Monty]

Can we stop with the silly mortgage comparisons please. People with mortgages can't just print money, and neither do they have to honour bad debts lumped on the house once they get in and find out it's a crime scene.

 

The one interesting thing about mortgages are how they symbolise the lunacy of talking about debt as if it's anything but made up as you go along numbers. You know, given that they just create the money out of thin air when you sign the paperwork.

[SasaS]

Isn't the reality that they actually see many of them as being reasons they accept and as such elected a government to steer them away from those problems?

 

Hence their rejection of a corrupt and anti-democratic international finance agenda.

 

Possibly. I would say they have elected them because Syriza promised them end of austerity and because everybody else failed, so the people decided to let them have a go at the mess. People from the left would probably argue that it is an ideological victory for them, but most of all I think they voted them is as an anti-establishment movement, which has been a recent trend in Europe, from movements such as Podemos or all those anti-immigration anti-establishment movements on the right, in countries which coped better with the crisis and see creating a fortress as a first priority.

 

I've seen very little "soul searching" from Greeks, they mostly just bang on how the country was a victim of external forces. They lived far, far better than people in neighbouring countries for a long time and people tend to accept that as normal. 

[Hades]

Two wrongs make a right, the fundamental principle of entitled right-whingers everywhere. 

[Strontium]

Nope, it really isn't

 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4b077fd0-6431-11e4-8ade-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3eYgz8so1

 

Nice to see that you've reverted back to trying to avoid providing any justification for the lies that you tell

 

 

Go fuck yourself, I don't tell lies. Fucking piece of ratshit.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102153491

 

The International Monetary Fund ignored its own research and pushed too early for richer countries to trim budgets after the global financial crisis, the IMF's internal auditor said on Tuesday.

 

The Washington-based multilateral lender, concerned about high debt levels and large fiscal deficits, urged countries like Germany, the United States and Japan to pursue austerity in 2010-11 before their economies had fully recovered from the crisis.

 

Richer countries. Not Greece. Not Spain. Not Portugal.

 

Like I said: a gross simplification on your part. Or, to put it another way, you were lying.

[TheHowieLama]

[Jairzinho]

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/30/greek-debt-troika-analysis-says-significant-concessions-still-needed

 

IMF: austerity measures would still leave Greece with unsustainable debt

 

Secret documents show creditors’ baseline estimate puts debt at 118% of GDP in 2030, even if it signs up to all tax and spending reforms demanded by troika

 

Greece would face an unsustainable level of debt by 2030 even if it signs up to the full package of tax and spending reforms demanded of it, according to unpublished documents compiled by its three main creditors.

 

The documents, drawn up by the so-called troika of lenders, support Greece’s argument that it needs substantial debt relief for a lasting economic recovery. They show that, even after 15 years of sustained strong growth, the country would face a level of debt that the International Monetary Fund deems unsustainable.

 

The documents show that the IMF’s baseline estimate – the most likely outcome – is that Greece’s debt would still be 118% of GDP in 2030, even if it signs up to the package of tax and spending reforms demanded. That is well above the 110% the IMF regards as sustainable given Greece’s debt profile, a level set in 2012. The country’s debt level is currently 175% and likely to go higher because of its recent slide back into recession.

 

The documents admit that under the baseline scenario “significant concessions” are necessary to improve Greece’s chances of ridding itself permanently of its debt financing woes.

 

Even under the best case scenario, which includes growth of 4% a year for the next five years, Greece’s debt levels will drop to only 124%, by 2022. The best case also anticipates €15bn (£10bn) in proceeds from privatisations, five times the estimate in the most likely scenario.

 

But under all the scenarios, which all assume a third bailout programme, looked at by the troika – the European commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF – Greece has no chance of meeting the target of reducing its debt to “well below 110% of GDP by 2022” set by the Eurogroup of finance ministers in November 2012.

 

In the creditors own words: “It is clear that the policy slippages and uncertainties of the last months have made the achievement of the 2012 targets impossible under any scenario”.

 

These projections are from the report Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis for Greece, one of six documents that are part of the full set of materials that comprise the “final” proposal sent to Greece by its creditors last Friday.

 

These, which the Guardian has seen, were obtained by Süddeutsche Zeitung after they were sent to all German MPs with the expectation that the deal would need to be approved by the country’s parliament.

 

A vote in the Bundestag never took place as the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, rejected the plans and called a referendum on whether to accept the creditors’ demands.

 

While the analysis underlines the fact that Greece has already benefited from a number of debt-reducing measures – maturities have been extended, interest payments are similar to those of less indebted nations and the PSI in 2012 cut debt by about €100bn – the document also admits that under the baseline scenario “significant concessions” would improve sustainability.

 

But despite the lenders’ admission that Greece cannot thrive without debt relief the documents provide no clarity about what such a package might look like, nor does it provide any detail of a third bailout programme despite assuming one would exist. They promise only a more detailed debt sustainability analysis in due course.

 

The documents also throw light on the €35bn investment package that several governments, including Germany’s, have this week pointed out was offered to Greece last week.

 

The second document in the pack of six, titled Reforms for the Completion of the Current Programme and Beyond, show there was less to this offer than suggested by commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and Germany’s vice-chancellor Sigmar Gabriel. The cash on offer is not an ad hoc investment but is actually an EU grant that is regularly available to all member states. And, as Süddeutsche Zeitung points out, accessing the cash requires a 15% co-financing in Greece’s case, which it cannot afford. Because of this, Greece has unspent sums from its €38bn 2007-2013 pot of available grants.

 

A third document outlines the “financing needs and draft disbursement schedule linked to the completion of the fifth review”, spelling out how Greece would have received €15bn to meet its obligations until the end of November. The cash would have been handed over in five tranches starting in June (as soon as the Greek parliament approved the proposals) to cover Greece’s financing needs. However, 93% of the funds would have gone straight to cover the cost of maturing debt for the duration of the extension.

The remaining documents cover the nuts and bolts of the actions that were expected to be taken by Greece in consultation with the EC/ECB/IMF. One of these papers was also published by the European commission over the weekend.

 

The plan is premised on a primary surplus target of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 3.5% of GDP in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 respectively (both sides agree on these targets). It is anchored on VAT changes producing additional revenue of 1% of GDP and a reform of the pension system that leads to savings of 1% of GDP in 2016.

 

On VAT reforms, the proposal suggests broadening the tax base at a standard rate of 23%, and would include restaurants, and catering. There will be a reduced rate of 13% to cover a limited set of goods, that includes energy, basic foods, hotels and water (excluding sewage).

 

There was also to be a super-reduced rate of 6% on pharmaceuticals, books and theatres, an increase on tax on insurance and the elimination of tax exemptions on certain islands. The creditors had originally wanted only a two-tier VAT system.

In terms of pensions, which have been the stickiest point in the negotiations, the plan demands reforms to:

• Create strong disincentives to early retirement, including changes to early retirement penalties 
• Adopt legislation so that withdrawals from the social insurance fund will incur an annual penalty, for those affected by the extension of the retirement age period, equivalent to 10% on top of the current penalty of 6%
• Ensure that all supplementary pension funds are only financed by own contributions

• Gradually phase out the solidarity grant (EKAS) for all pensioners by end-December 2019. This shall start immediately for the top 20% of beneficiaries with the details of the phase-out to be agreed with the institutions
• Freeze monthly guaranteed contributory pension limits in nominal terms until 2021
• Provide to people retiring after 30 June 2015 the basic, guaranteed contributory, and means-tested pensions only at statutory normal retirement age, currently 67 years
• Increase the relatively low health contributions for pensioners from 4% to 6% on average and extend it to supplementary pensions

On Monday Juncker insisted – incorrectly – that these measures did not amount to a cut in pensions. However, the creditors were correct in saying that they had compromised and the plans had some flexibility. They also suggested that Greece could provide alternative proposals as long as they are “sufficiently concrete and quantifiable”.

 

The creditors’ proposals also suggested that corporation tax rise only from 26% to 28%. Greece wanted the rate set at 29%.

[Nightcat]

Interesting comparisons between Greece on the one hand and Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy on the other, in the previous pages.

 

It is always good to remember Portugal's (neutral), Ireland's (neutral - big EIRE signs on rocks to make sure Luftwaffe did not waste their bombs on them), Spain's (-not so- silently pro-Germany) and Italy's (part of Axis) stance and contribution during WWII (and WWI).

 

Greeks(Allies) had four times more deaths than the Netherlands and twice as many as Italy. 

 

Pay your debts stupid Greeks.

 

Here's your unelected E.U. President Juncker, completely pissed: 

[magicrat]

Interesting comparisons between Greece on the one hand and Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy on the other, in the previous pages.

 

It is always good to remember Portugal's (neutral), Ireland's (neutral - big EIRE signs on rocks to make sure Luftwaffe did not waste their bombs on them), Spain's (-not so- silently pro-Germany) and Italy's (part of Axis) stance and contribution during WWII (and WWI).

 

Greeks(Allies) had four times more deaths than the Netherlands and twice as many as Italy. 

 

Pay your debts stupid Greeks.

 

Here's your unelected E.U. President Juncker, completely pissed: 

The insane babble about WW2 nearly lost me but the Junkers pissed link was possibly the best thing you've ever posted . Repped

[Anubis]

Damn. Wanted to see him slap Cameron, and the pansy to hit the deck.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/29/opinion/paul-krugman-greece-over-the-brink.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region&_r=0

Excellent read.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

I accept that there is now a political spiel by both negotiating parties trying to call each others bluff, ideological differences etc. I don't believe that radical Left can implement its programme within the EU boundaries, as the EU is a center-left to center-right project and if you have a mandate to do something else, different, more radical, you should step out of these boundaries.

 

Greece is not a Western European society and it pretended to be one, on steroids of cheap euro-borrowing, for years. So I am "angry" that people there do not seem capable of accepting this as the original sin of this mess, or at least a part of the problem, regardless of who lined their own pockets. And many Greek pockets were well lined in the past.

I'm intrigued by your knowledge of Greek people and their denial of any responsibility in the country's economic mess.

 

How do you know this?

[torahboy]

I won't be voting in the forthcoming Greek referendum - 'cos I'm not Greek and that. Yet if I were I think I'd be swayed by this guy.

 

 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/29/joseph-stiglitz-how-i-would-vote-in-the-greek-referendum

[AngryOfTuebrook]

I won't be voting in the forthcoming Greek referendum - 'cos I'm not Greek and that. Yet if I were I think I'd be swayed by this guy.

 

 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/29/joseph-stiglitz-how-i-would-vote-in-the-greek-referendum

So, that's two Nobel prize winning economists saying the Greeks should tell the Troika to fuck off.

 

Has anyone got any links to any competent economist setting out the case for why the Greeks should do what the Troika tell them?

[Preston Red]

Have the Greeks not looked to see if they're eligible for a PPI payout?

[Nightcat]

I'm intrigued by your knowledge of Greek people and their denial of any responsibility in the country's economic mess.

 

How do you know this?

you sound like a knowledgeable person too.

 

I bet you know how was the Greek debt initially accumulated and how many "rescue deals" were already offered since (2009?) by the IMF, ECB and E.U. to Greece and were did 100% of the money went (to rescue private European banks) to? I bet you also know that all those "rescue deals", were complemented by "memorandums" (a detailed list of preconditions for each rescue deals), including World breaking(in terms of severity) austerity measures and that none of those "rescue deals" were offered in a referendum option so people can have the right to say "ugh, but no, we'd be better bankrupt".

 

Turns out according to Krugman, Striglitz et al, all these "rescue deals" were in the wrong direction and that the IMF was wrong in their predictions and demands, that is why they need another and another one and another one and Greece has officially defaulted to the IMF debt, just minutes ago.

[VladimirIlyich]

 

Go fuck yourself, I don't tell lies. Fucking piece of ratshit.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102153491

 

 

 

Richer countries. Not Greece. Not Spain. Not Portugal.

 

Like I said: a gross simplification on your part. Or, to put it another way, you were lying.

And you wonder why people pull you up when you claim to be the victim.

No need for this sort of behaviour at all.

[janmolby]

Fiat currency, root of all evil

[Jairzinho]

Not even their own fiat currency.

[Anubis]

He may need to update this soon....

 

http://dailyreckoning.com/fiat-currency/

[AngryOfTuebrook]

Another view on the Greek crisis.  (This one focuses more on geopolitics and barely mentions the people of Greece.)

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joergen-oerstroem-moeller/the-greek-crisis-explaine_b_7634564.html