Russia v Ukraine

[Leyton388]

Seems like its not going well for the Russians. Theres also reports that captured Russian solders are saying they were told it was training and war exercises in Ukraine. Most likely bullshit but i wouldn't be surpised if the troops have not been told the truth. 

 

They seem to be taking heavy loses. 

[SasaS]

An informative summary of yesterday and the state of play now, from social media source, for those that are actually interested in what is going on the ground. Obviously, some of it may be conjecture.

 

"Now, let me try to resume the last 24 hours.... (and please mind: some details of the following are likely to be updated during the day, as more information becomes available).

By now, there is no doubt that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have the task to assault and occupy Ukraine as quickly as possible - and regardless the cost. The result is no 'elegant' military operation in which one side is suffering all losses: the Russians are assaulting, throwing ever more of new units into the fight, in ill-planned operations, without 'softening' defences with help of air strikes, ballistic- and cruise missile attacks, without sufficient artillery preparation. Speed is the essence. Unsurprisingly, they are frequently running into ambushes, making heliborne attacks and para-jumps on targets that are still heavily defended, and often suffering what would be considered as 'catastrophic' losses in the process.

There is no doubt that - contrary to the mass of pre-war Western assessments, certainly also contrary to the Russian expectations - the Ukrainians are resisting far more fiercely, and far more successfully than expected. They have not established any kind of fortifications directly at the borders to Belarus and Russia (except in the Luhansk and Donetsk areas, of course): thus, one could say they have 'left the Russians come in'. However, this had a simple reason: in this fashion, Ukrainian ground forces have avoided most of vicious Russian artillery barrages unleashed at the start of the war.

The net result is that - except in the south (that is: the area north of Crimea) - the Russian operation is already now badly behind schedule. The Keystone Cops in Moscow have obviously expected to collapse Ukrainian defences with a series of quick and 'light' assaults, combined with a 'shock and awe' campaign including about 150 ballistic- and cruise missiles, launched in two waves, and about 70 air strikes, already on Thursday (24 Feb, first day of the war). This didn't work. Therefore, since yesterday, the Russians are running their 'Plan B', which is including a massive onslaught on all frontlines.

As far as the information is available, the fighting in specific parts of Ukraine over the last 24 hours can be summarised as follows:

 

OPERATIONAL LEVEL

Ukrainian armed forces have used ballistic missiles to hit the Millerovo Air Base - one of major installations of the 4th air And Air Defence Forces Army of the VKS, in the Rostov area. At least one Su-30SM interceptors of the 31st Guards Fighter Aviation Regiment, home-based there, was destroyed on the ground. The fact any kind of Ukrainian missiles came so far is another indication for how ill-prepared are the Russian armed forces for this conflict. They simply didn't expect anything of that kind and thus even their S-300/400 'Wunderwaffen' failed to interept the incoming Ukrainian missile that targeted one of most important VKS installations in this part of Russia.

NORTH

Currently, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have over 30,000 troops deployed on this frontline.

Russian forces have launched a second, massive heliborne assault on Antonov/Hostomel/Gostomel IAP, yesterday. This time came in with 200+ helicopters, full electronic warfare support, and full fighter escort. As a consequence, only local, ground-based Ukrainian air defence assets (essentially: Army troops armed with MANPADs and light anti-aircraft artillery) were able to fight back at first. They claimed some 5-6 helicopters as shot down while the Russians were still approaching. That said, what happened after is 'unclear', simply because the area is now some 10km behind the southernmost Russian frontlines (those in the outskirts of Kyiv). The Keystone Cops say they have secured the control of this strategically important installation, but there is no doubt that the Ukrainians are still resisting there. Overall: 'situation unclear'.

It is still unclear how, but, yesterday, early in the morning, Russian Spetsnaz troops wearing Ukrainian Army uniforms have managed to infiltrate the northern outskirts of Kyiv. They were detected as such only while reaching suburbs of Obolonsky, Vorzel, Buch, and Irpen. They appear to have been followed by Chechen mercenaries. Both had the task to capture or kill members of the Ukrainian government. Some have managed to advance all the way down to the St Sophia's Cathedral, which is on the northern fringe of the downtown Kyiv, and the 'government district' there. Some are active inside the underground network, too. Multiple fire-fights erupted as the assailants were detected. This is what caused immense uncertainty in Kyiv, and prompted the mass of the Western media to start talking about 'imminent fall' of the Ukrainian capitol (which, obviously, is pure nonsense).

Simultaneously, the Russians assaulted the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant in the northern outskirts of the city. The Ukrainians have recovered the same, later in the evening.

Meanwhile, further north-east, the Russian forces that captured Chernobyl in northern Ukraine, continued their advance in southern direction, reaching the town of Chernihiv, about 145km north of Kyiv, yesterday in the morning. The situation there is 'unclear', but, there is no doubt that they then by-passed that place and continued down the E95 road into Kyiv's eastern suburbs.

In an attempt to encircle Kyiv, the Russians then launched an airborne assault on the area of Bila Tserkva, 120km south of Kyiv. Next to no details about the situation there are available, except that the Ukrainians claimed to have shot down one of big transports (full of paratroopers) by their air defences, and then another by their Su-27s. Perhaps in relation to this operation, a Russian Su-25 was shot down near Kalynivka, in the Vinnytsya area (120-150km south-west of Kyiv).

 

EAST

Currently, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have about 30,000 troops deployed on this frontline. Add to this the forces of Putin-controlled separatists in Luhanks and Donbas.

About 200km east of Kyiv: City of Konotop (home-base of the Ukrainian 58th Mechanised Brigade) is under siege by Russian forces.

Following a nocturnal counterattack by Ukrainian forces, which mauled the first Russian battalion to enter the town of Sumy, in the night from 24 to 25 Feb, Russians have brought in new forces and secured the northern outskirts of this town, yesterday in the morning. Presently, the centre of Sumy appears to be under Ukrainian control, with the Russians holding its northern side. Their other units then bypassed and advanced on Konotop to the west and on Kharkivv to the south-east.

Kharkiv is under assault from three directions (NW, N, and NE). Ukrainian forces there - including the 1st Tank Brigade - are holding out, and that well. That said, this is an area from which there are the least details. The best assumption is that the Russians are trying to surround this city of about 1 million.

The mass of regular Ukrainian Armed Forces deployed along the 'cease-fire lines' of Luhansk and Donbas is still holding out, regardless what are the Russians throwing at them. So far, the Russians seem to have managed only a minimal advance north of Luhansk. However, further north the Russians have managed to advance from the international border up to 20km deep into the Luhansk Oblast. Like in the case of Kharkiv, there are very little news from this part of Ukraine.

SOUTH

Currently, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have about 12,000 troops deployed on this frontline.

As reported yesterday, and the day before, the Russian advance from Crimea went for Kherson on Dnepr River, in north-western direction, and Melitopol in north-eastern direction. Yesterday early in the morning, the Ukrainians have counterattacked north-east of Kherson causing a bitter battle, with heavy losses on both sides, and seem to have managed to push the Russians to the southern bank of Dnepr. However, meanwhile there is no doubt that the Russians then managed to cross the river further north, and are trying to advance north and then west of Kherson (mind: whenever the Russians establish a bridgehead over some river, that's becomig their 'Schwerpunkt' and then they invest everything they have into such a crossing). This battle is presently going on: both fighter-bombers and TB.2 Bayraktars of the Ukrainian air force are active on this frontline. Local Ukrainian air defence units have reportedly shot down a Russian UAV there, too.

Further east: Melitopol should be - at least 'largely' - under the Russian control. They should have managed to maul an Ukrainian Army unit preparing for counterattack, north of that town - apparently with a combination of air strikes and artillery. However, as of this morning, bitter fighting is reported from there.

Further east: according to the Pentagon, the Russian Navy launched an amphibious operation west of Mariupol. The Pentagon claims that 10 involved amphibious assault ships have landed 'thousands of infantry'. With this, the port of Mariupol is likely to become cut off from the rest of Ukraine. That said, this is anything else than confirmed by independent sources, and thus the situation in this part of the country remains unclear (except that Mariupol is still and very much indeed, under Ukrainian control).

For a detailed list of equipment losses on both sides - as far as this can be confirmed by videos and photos - see:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/.../attack-on-europe...

 

 

 

[Mudface]

5 minutes ago, SasaS said:

An informative summary of yesterday and the state of play now, from social media source, for those that are actually interested in what is going on the ground. Obviously, some of it may be conjecture.

 

"Now, let me try to resume the last 24 hours.... (and please mind: some details of the following are likely to be updated during the day, as more information becomes available).

By now, there is no doubt that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have the task to assault and occupy Ukraine as quickly as possible - and regardless the cost. The result is no 'elegant' military operation in which one side is suffering all losses: the Russians are assaulting, throwing ever more of new units into the fight, in ill-planned operations, without 'softening' defences with help of air strikes, ballistic- and cruise missile attacks, without sufficient artillery preparation. Speed is the essence. Unsurprisingly, they are frequently running into ambushes, making heliborne attacks and para-jumps on targets that are still heavily defended, and often suffering what would be considered as 'catastrophic' losses in the process.

There is no doubt that - contrary to the mass of pre-war Western assessments, certainly also contrary to the Russian expectations - the Ukrainians are resisting far more fiercely, and far more successfully than expected. They have not established any kind of fortifications directly at the borders to Belarus and Russia (except in the Luhansk and Donetsk areas, of course): thus, one could say they have 'left the Russians come in'. However, this had a simple reason: in this fashion, Ukrainian ground forces have avoided most of vicious Russian artillery barrages unleashed at the start of the war.

The net result is that - except in the south (that is: the area north of Crimea) - the Russian operation is already now badly behind schedule. The Keystone Cops in Moscow have obviously expected to collapse Ukrainian defences with a series of quick and 'light' assaults, combined with a 'shock and awe' campaign including about 150 ballistic- and cruise missiles, launched in two waves, and about 70 air strikes, already on Thursday (24 Feb, first day of the war). This didn't work. Therefore, since yesterday, the Russians are running their 'Plan B', which is including a massive onslaught on all frontlines.

As far as the information is available, the fighting in specific parts of Ukraine over the last 24 hours can be summarised as follows:

 

OPERATIONAL LEVEL

Ukrainian armed forces have used ballistic missiles to hit the Millerovo Air Base - one of major installations of the 4th air And Air Defence Forces Army of the VKS, in the Rostov area. At least one Su-30SM interceptors of the 31st Guards Fighter Aviation Regiment, home-based there, was destroyed on the ground. The fact any kind of Ukrainian missiles came so far is another indication for how ill-prepared are the Russian armed forces for this conflict. They simply didn't expect anything of that kind and thus even their S-300/400 'Wunderwaffen' failed to interept the incoming Ukrainian missile that targeted one of most important VKS installations in this part of Russia.

NORTH

Currently, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have over 30,000 troops deployed on this frontline.

Russian forces have launched a second, massive heliborne assault on Antonov/Hostomel/Gostomel IAP, yesterday. This time came in with 200+ helicopters, full electronic warfare support, and full fighter escort. As a consequence, only local, ground-based Ukrainian air defence assets (essentially: Army troops armed with MANPADs and light anti-aircraft artillery) were able to fight back at first. They claimed some 5-6 helicopters as shot down while the Russians were still approaching. That said, what happened after is 'unclear', simply because the area is now some 10km behind the southernmost Russian frontlines (those in the outskirts of Kyiv). The Keystone Cops say they have secured the control of this strategically important installation, but there is no doubt that the Ukrainians are still resisting there. Overall: 'situation unclear'.

It is still unclear how, but, yesterday, early in the morning, Russian Spetsnaz troops wearing Ukrainian Army uniforms have managed to infiltrate the northern outskirts of Kyiv. They were detected as such only while reaching suburbs of Obolonsky, Vorzel, Buch, and Irpen. They appear to have been followed by Chechen mercenaries. Both had the task to capture or kill members of the Ukrainian government. Some have managed to advance all the way down to the St Sophia's Cathedral, which is on the northern fringe of the downtown Kyiv, and the 'government district' there. Some are active inside the underground network, too. Multiple fire-fights erupted as the assailants were detected. This is what caused immense uncertainty in Kyiv, and prompted the mass of the Western media to start talking about 'imminent fall' of the Ukrainian capitol (which, obviously, is pure nonsense).

Simultaneously, the Russians assaulted the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant in the northern outskirts of the city. The Ukrainians have recovered the same, later in the evening.

Meanwhile, further north-east, the Russian forces that captured Chernobyl in northern Ukraine, continued their advance in southern direction, reaching the town of Chernihiv, about 145km north of Kyiv, yesterday in the morning. The situation there is 'unclear', but, there is no doubt that they then by-passed that place and continued down the E95 road into Kyiv's eastern suburbs.

In an attempt to encircle Kyiv, the Russians then launched an airborne assault on the area of Bila Tserkva, 120km south of Kyiv. Next to no details about the situation there are available, except that the Ukrainians claimed to have shot down one of big transports (full of paratroopers) by their air defences, and then another by their Su-27s. Perhaps in relation to this operation, a Russian Su-25 was shot down near Kalynivka, in the Vinnytsya area (120-150km south-west of Kyiv).

 

EAST

Currently, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have about 30,000 troops deployed on this frontline. Add to this the forces of Putin-controlled separatists in Luhanks and Donbas.

About 200km east of Kyiv: City of Konotop (home-base of the Ukrainian 58th Mechanised Brigade) is under siege by Russian forces.

Following a nocturnal counterattack by Ukrainian forces, which mauled the first Russian battalion to enter the town of Sumy, in the night from 24 to 25 Feb, Russians have brought in new forces and secured the northern outskirts of this town, yesterday in the morning. Presently, the centre of Sumy appears to be under Ukrainian control, with the Russians holding its northern side. Their other units then bypassed and advanced on Konotop to the west and on Kharkivv to the south-east.

Kharkiv is under assault from three directions (NW, N, and NE). Ukrainian forces there - including the 1st Tank Brigade - are holding out, and that well. That said, this is an area from which there are the least details. The best assumption is that the Russians are trying to surround this city of about 1 million.

The mass of regular Ukrainian Armed Forces deployed along the 'cease-fire lines' of Luhansk and Donbas is still holding out, regardless what are the Russians throwing at them. So far, the Russians seem to have managed only a minimal advance north of Luhansk. However, further north the Russians have managed to advance from the international border up to 20km deep into the Luhansk Oblast. Like in the case of Kharkiv, there are very little news from this part of Ukraine.

SOUTH

Currently, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have about 12,000 troops deployed on this frontline.

As reported yesterday, and the day before, the Russian advance from Crimea went for Kherson on Dnepr River, in north-western direction, and Melitopol in north-eastern direction. Yesterday early in the morning, the Ukrainians have counterattacked north-east of Kherson causing a bitter battle, with heavy losses on both sides, and seem to have managed to push the Russians to the southern bank of Dnepr. However, meanwhile there is no doubt that the Russians then managed to cross the river further north, and are trying to advance north and then west of Kherson (mind: whenever the Russians establish a bridgehead over some river, that's becomig their 'Schwerpunkt' and then they invest everything they have into such a crossing). This battle is presently going on: both fighter-bombers and TB.2 Bayraktars of the Ukrainian air force are active on this frontline. Local Ukrainian air defence units have reportedly shot down a Russian UAV there, too.

Further east: Melitopol should be - at least 'largely' - under the Russian control. They should have managed to maul an Ukrainian Army unit preparing for counterattack, north of that town - apparently with a combination of air strikes and artillery. However, as of this morning, bitter fighting is reported from there.

Further east: according to the Pentagon, the Russian Navy launched an amphibious operation west of Mariupol. The Pentagon claims that 10 involved amphibious assault ships have landed 'thousands of infantry'. With this, the port of Mariupol is likely to become cut off from the rest of Ukraine. That said, this is anything else than confirmed by independent sources, and thus the situation in this part of the country remains unclear (except that Mariupol is still and very much indeed, under Ukrainian control).

For a detailed list of equipment losses on both sides - as far as this can be confirmed by videos and photos - see:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/.../attack-on-europe...

 

 

 

Have you got a link to that please? The one at the bottom doesn't work.

[Red Phoenix]

4 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Have you got a link to that please? The one at the bottom doesn't work.

 

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

[Anubis]

29 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

 

I apologize to you and the forum. Both of you obviously have vastly superior knowledge and experience to mine, more than amply evidenced in your well argued opinions on the actual matter at hand.

I don’t claim or pretend to have any vastly superior knowledge of military tactics. I didn’t even win the Battle comic competition.

[Anubis]

Double post.

[Mudface]

4 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Thanks, that's the equipment destroyed list, I was after the text bit before that.

[Red Phoenix]

Just now, Mudface said:

Thanks, that's the equipment destroyed list, I was after the text bit before that.

 

Yeah that's what I looked for and can't find it either.

[Bjornebye]

33 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

 

I apologize to you and the forum. Both of you obviously have vastly superior knowledge and experience to mine, more than amply evidenced in your well argued opinions on the actual matter at hand.

Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Lt. Weinberg? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom. You weep for Santiago and you curse the Marines. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know; that Santiago's death, while tragic, probably saved lives. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, *saves lives*. You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall. You need me on that wall. We use words like honor, code, loyalty. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it! I would rather you just said "thank you" and went on your way, Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a weapon and stand a post. Either way, I don't give a *damn* what you think you are entitled to!

[Red Phoenix]

This guy has been good so far. He's not had a break in a while though so he might be off for a few hours soon : https://twitter.com/RALee85

[sir roger]

3 minutes ago, Anubis said:

 I didn’t even win the Battle comic competition.

Even with two different entries ?

[Anubis]

Just now, sir roger said:

Even with two different entries ?

My mum and dad could only afford one comic and you had to write out your battle orders on the cut out form.

[SasaS]

6 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Thanks, that's the equipment destroyed list, I was after the text bit before that.

 

6 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Thanks, that's the equipment destroyed list, I was after the text bit before that.

It's a FB post, as I said.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/keksifarm.hayday

 

[Mudface]

2 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

It's a FB post, as I said.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/keksifarm.hayday

 

Thanks, similar sentiments in this thread too. I really hope Putin's massively overreached and his hubris has fucked them up-

 

 

[Mook]

45 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

 

I apologize to you and the forum. Both of you obviously have vastly superior knowledge and experience to mine, more than amply evidenced in your well argued opinions on the actual matter at hand.

It's called taking this piss.

 

We learn this in the UK instead of reading up on military tactics.

[SasaS]

15 minutes ago, Anubis said:

I don’t claim or pretend to have any vastly superior knowledge of military tactics. I didn’t even win the Battle comic competition.

Apologies if I overreacted, it was a bit annoying to check in and find 3 posts lined up seemingly ridiculing mine and offering no input of their own at the same time.

[Anubis]

Just now, SasaS said:

Apologies if I overreacted, it was a bit annoying to check in and find 3 posts lined up seemingly ridiculing mine and offering no input of their own at the same time.

No worries.

[clangers]

13 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Thanks, similar sentiments in this thread too. I really hope Putin's massively overreached and his hubris has fucked them up-

 

 

It's entirely possible. The US has fallen foul to hubris twice over the last couple of decades. I'm sure we all recall George W. stood on the deck of an aircraft carrier declaring victory. Putin may have believed this would be a rapid decapitation of the Ukrainian government followed by a thankful population freed from their apparent neo-Nazi rulers. I wonder if anyone had thought to inform him that the current and former presidents of Ukraine are both Jewish?

 

Even if Russia eventually overcomes Ukraine I still don't understand what the end game is? Hundreds of thousands of Russian troops and security personnel attempting to indefinitely suppress a nation?

[J-V]

Yeah, really sounds like Zelenskyy is ready for talks.  He's called anyone who wants to come and fight for Ukraine to come on over and they'll supply the weapons.

[clangers]

2 minutes ago, J-V said:

Yeah, really sounds like Zelenskyy is ready for talks.  He's called anyone who wants to come and fight for Ukraine to come on over and they'll supply the weapons.

It was suggested that's just a tactic to buy Ukraine a couple of days to regroup. The only terms Putin will want to talk about are the terms of their surrender at the moment.

[J-V]

Just now, clangers said:

It was suggested that's just a tactic to buy Ukraine a couple of days to regroup. The only terms Putin will want to talk about are the terms of their surrender at the moment.

Exactly plus any surrender means no more Zelenskyy as president.

[Gnasher]

20 minutes ago, J-V said:

Yeah, really sounds like Zelenskyy is ready for talks.  He's called anyone who wants to come and fight for Ukraine to come on over and they'll supply the weapons.

Talks between waring countries happen all the time, just because you don't hear of them does not mean they are not happening.

[Manny]

10 hours ago, Boss said:

There's a reason why the Spartans were the most feared of the ancient warriors. You either create a culture of war and patriotism where the army is celebrated and the men of fighting age learn real combat training from a young age, or you create a culture where your men drink lattes and muse about the offence caused by not using a persons preferred personal pronoun. You can't just suddenly hand out AK47's to a bunch of soyboys and expect them to turn into Rambo.

Spartans were the gayest army in history. It’s a terrible model - they might have had a generation or two of unbreakable armies, but locking the fighting age dudes up in barracks to fuck each other rather than breed with their wives living at home meant they were short lived.

[Remmie]

The determination of Ukrainians to protect their land cannot be understated. There are waves of fighters who have resigned to the fact they will die in the conflict but will take 10 opposition lives in the process. 

 

I'm not making any bold predictions about how the conflict will end other than to say it will be no walkover for Russia. 

[Pureblood]

9 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Talks between waring countries happen all the time, just because you don't hear of them does not mean they are not happening.

I reckon they're on WhatsApp right now:-

 

Putin: lol thanks M8, will take on board. L8R

Zelensky: no danger, bruv