Coronavirus

[Barrington Womble]

16 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

I think shows that there can be a relatively considerable time lag between lifting lockdown and cases spiking. If the same happens here we will be looking about July 1st-8th roughly before seeing a big jump?

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's all about the R rate though isn't it. So it will take a while for it to get above 1 nationally and it takes that to see an inrease in numbers - even then it kind of depends where the R rate goes up - if it's somewhere (like Scotland) where numbers are low, it may not directly result in a UK wide spike in infections. But with people still distancing more than the start of the outbreak and people generally more cautious (masks, gloves, washing hands etc) it would seem reasonable any increase in spread will be slower than the 1st outbreak. This is why it was so important for the government to get track and trace correct from day 1 of relaxation, yet another half arsed, back of a beer mat fuck up by this bunch of cunts. 

[Barrington Womble]

6 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

The jump is normally Mon/Tue, but there have been bank holidays which have skewed it. I got the figures miles wrong, but percentage wise this is a massive drop still. It's worth noting that as figures come down, the number of backdates deaths which get added on will decrease too.

Monday is always low, effectively it's Sunday stats. Then if there's no BH Tues and weds normally spike from the weekend. 

[Sugar Ape]

5 minutes ago, Barry Wom said:

It's all about the R rate though isn't it. So it will take a while for it to get above 1 nationally and it takes that to see an inrease in numbers - even then it kind of depends where the R rate goes up - if it's somewhere (like Scotland) where numbers are low, it may not directly result in a UK wide spike in infections. But with people still distancing more than the start of the outbreak and people generally more cautious (masks, gloves, washing hands etc) it would seem reasonable any increase in spread will be slower than the 1st outbreak. This is why it was so important for the government to get track and trace correct from day 1 of relaxation, yet another half arsed, back of a beer mat fuck up by this bunch of cunts. 

I agree Barry, but I’ve seen loads of people saying after they see pictures of crowded beaches or protests that we’ll know in five days or a week if it’ll cause cases to spike. It’s clearly going to take a lot longer than that for it to happen, if it does. 

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, Mudface said:

It was 111, but there's always a big jump on Tue/ Wed, last week there were well over 300 deaths on both those days. Encouraging though, just wish the infection figures would come down more quickly. 1200- 1500 per day is still pretty high.

Where are you seeing 111? BBC website says 55 as does coronavstats website. 

[TheHowieLama]

5 minutes ago, S.i.t.M aka The Boring One™ said:

Where are you seeing 111? BBC website says 55 as does coronavstats website. 

He is talking about last Monday

[Mudface]

7 minutes ago, S.i.t.M aka The Boring One™ said:

Where are you seeing 111? BBC website says 55 as does coronavstats website. 

 

1 minute ago, TheHowieLama said:

He is talking about last Monday

Yep. From the chart here- https://coronavstats.co.uk/uk. If you hover over the bars, you can see figures for previous days.

 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

He is talking about last Monday

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Mudface said:

 

Yep. From the chart here- https://coronavstats.co.uk/uk. If you hover over the bars, you can see figures for previous days.

 

So if we see a low number tomorrow, perhaps we have grinder through the worst of it. Hopefully light at the end of the tunnel. 

[Mudface]

2 minutes ago, S.i.t.M aka The Boring One™ said:

So if we see a low number tomorrow, perhaps we have grinder through the worst of it. Hopefully light at the end of the tunnel. 

The figures invariably go up after the weekend, the number should be higher but hopefully a lot lower than last Tuesday. We're clearly through the worst of the first phase, but the new infection rate is still very high, especially in England. With the recent easing, and the track and trace looking like the usual Tory outsourcing cluster fuck, it's still a big worry that a second wave could get sparked off and we'd be unable to control it without a further lockdown.

[TheHowieLama]

25 minutes ago, Mudface said:

 control it without a further lockdown.

There will not be another lockdown unless/until the second wave becomes worse than the first.

Western Governments have all accepted certain stats as ok and painted them as "winning".

In the US that means less than 25k new cases and less than 1000 dead - a day.

In the UK it is less than 2000 new cases and less than 200 dead - a day.

[Mudface]

Just now, TheHowieLama said:

There will not be another lockdown unless/until the second wave becomes worse than the first.

Western Governments have all accepted certain stats as ok and painted them as "winning".

In the US that means less than 25k new cases and less than 1000 dead - a day.

In the UK it is less than 2000 new cases and less than 200 dead - a day.

Sadly you're probably right. All that guff about local lockdowns is just that, they've got no real intention of doing anything of the sort. Fortunately, I live in Scotland these days and Sturgeon seems to have both the autonomy and the will to do it 'right'.

[cloggypop]

@TK421

 

Mudhoney facemasks available here

 

https://mudhoneyonline.com/merch-store?fbclid=IwAR08XqRrmH8c2b_EyimsS8_mT5D1w4MH-aIkKlD1YdQ1E2wQym8QJpkUOSI

 

 

[Spy Bee]

Does anyone know at what stage kids are likely to be able to get a hug of their relatives who don't live in the same house? I've not even heard that most basic human want mentioned.

[Mudface]

1 hour ago, cloggypop said:

@TK421

 

Mudhoney facemasks available here

 

https://mudhoneyonline.com/merch-store?fbclid=IwAR08XqRrmH8c2b_EyimsS8_mT5D1w4MH-aIkKlD1YdQ1E2wQym8QJpkUOSI

 

 

Touch me, I'm sick.

[Captain Turdseye]

2 hours ago, S.i.t.M aka The Boring One™ said:

So if we see a low number tomorrow, perhaps we have grinder through the worst of it.

Whatever floats your boat. I don’t think there’s any restrictions on which apps you’re allowed to download. 

[Bjornebye]

Haha! 

[SasaS]

I think they're in the last throes, if you will, of the covid19 in Europe.

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, Captain Turdseye said:

Whatever floats your boat. I don’t think there’s any restrictions on which apps you’re allowed to download. 

[TheHowieLama]

21 minutes ago, SasaS said:

I think they're in the last throes, if you will, of the covid19 in Europe.

Everyones favorite trailblazers the Swedes posting higher new case numbers than they ever have.

[SasaS]

12 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Everyones favorite trailblazers the Swedes posting higher new case numbers than they ever have.

68?

It's strong only on the fringes, Sweden in the north, UK in the west, Russia in the east. The rest of the continent has already greeted antibodies as liberators. 

Mission accomplished.

[RobbieOR]

3 hours ago, TheHowieLama said:

There will not be another lockdown unless/until the second wave becomes worse than the first.

Western Governments have all accepted certain stats as ok and painted them as "winning".

In the US that means less than 25k new cases and less than 1000 dead - a day.

In the UK it is less than 2000 new cases and less than 200 dead - a day.

 

Lockdowns are economic suicide, nobody will be going down that route again. It's all about managing it now

[TheHowieLama]

1 minute ago, SasaS said:

68?

 

They don't like Mondays.

 

Sweden had never posted more than 825 cases until 5 days ago.

They then reeled off 889, 1070, 1042 and 823 before the weekend warmdown.

Their 7 day average a week ago was just over 600 - it is now 850.

 

[TheHowieLama]

3 minutes ago, RobbieOR said:

 

Lockdowns are economic suicide, nobody will be going down that route again. It's all about managing it now

Yes - the numbers have become "normalised". No one bats (no pun intended) an eye at these results now.

[SasaS]

11 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

They don't like Mondays.

 

Sweden had never posted more than 825 cases until 5 days ago.

They then reeled off 889, 1070, 1042 and 823 before the weekend warmdown.

Their 7 day average a week ago was just over 600 - it is now 850.

 

True, but their numbers are very inconsistent, and I didn't see any explanation for the sudden jump of cases in thousands, deaths didn't go up I think. It is possible they have started testing more, or that it is spreading more outside of the capital, I have only noticed that areas towards the Norwegian border are now much darker shade of green than it used to be.

[Dougie Do'ins]

4 hours ago, Spy Bee said:

Only 55 deaths nationwide today and the infection rate is the lowest for ages. That's a huge drop onlike for like days. I think it was 294 last Monday.

How is the infection rate measured ? Is it people tested after reporting symptoms ? Or is the number of people being tested dropping ?

 

I don't know anyone who wants a test now. I'm coming into contact with more and more people on a daily basis in work and everyone is saying the same thing. They've basically had enough of it all now and just want to move on.

 

It's going to be interesting to see what happens on the back of all these protests. Anyone who took part has inadvertently acted as a government guinea pig. If there's no spike, it could well be an indication that the virus is either burning out or the governments stealth herd immunity has worked a treat.