Lib Dems

[Strontium]

I am finding it hard to pontificate to this thread.

[Bjornebye]

1 minute ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

I am finding it hard to pontificate to this thread.

I think you repped me by accident 

[Strontium]

We've already established that I am racist against paintings, get with the programme.

[Captain Turdseye]

And former Chelsea target men. 

[Denny Crane]

Sounds like they are running their own fake news factory.

 

A taster 

 

"Full Fact criticised the Lib Dems’ use of Flavible to make claims about their candidates’ likelihood of winning key seats. They included a prediction that Jeremy Corbyn would lose his seat to the Lib Dems despite winning in 2017 with 73% of the vote

 

 

The Liberal Democrats have been accused of misleading voters after a number of candidates published leaflets featuring data from an obscure company that is not a member of the British Polling Council to suggest they are ahead of other parties in various constituencies.

The election material citing data from Flavible has been criticised for using national polls and localising them to project the voting intention for certain constituencies.

 

Lib Dem candidates have used Flavible projections in their leaflets in York Outer, Esher and Walton, the Islington North seat of the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, Putney, Enfield Southgate, Woking, Oxford East, and Westminster and City, where Chuka Umunna is running

 

 

The British Polling Council confirmed that Flavible was not one of its members.

Flavible was created as a blogging site in 2015 by University of Plymouth students George Rushton and Saad Bhatty. It published articles submitted by other students and republished articles from The Conversation. The website was transformed into a company specialising in seat projection and statistical analysis in early 2019 by Rushton, with an appeal to supporters on Patreon.

 

In York Outer, the Lib Dem election material for the general election cites projections from Flavible to portray a two-way race with the Conservatives, noting that “Labour won’t win, but their voters can help beat the Tory MP by lending their vote to the Lib Dem.” But in 2017, the Conservative MP Julian Sturdy held his seat in York Outer, winning 29,356 votes, while Labour candidate came in second place, winning 21,067 votes. The LibDem candidate finished third with 5,910 votes.

 

In analyses in July and August, the fact-checking site Full Fact criticised the Lib Dems’ use of Flavible, which had drawn on previous polling by YouGov and Survation to make claims about their candidates’ likelihood of winning key seats. They included a prediction, which Full Fact concluded was incorrect, that Corbyn would lose his seat to the Lib Dems despite the Labour leader winning the seat in 2017 with 73% of the vote.

A spokesperson for Full Fact said: “It’s notoriously hard to reliably convert national polling results to local area. Flavible have, to their credit, explained their methodology. But political parties shouldn’t mislead voters by suggesting these results are reliable at the constituency level.

 

“And for politicians to say that these results are from “polling” – something we’ve had to fact check more than once already – is simply misleading.”

Andrew Gwynne MP, Labour’s national campaign co-ordinator, said: “The Lib Dems have no credibility and should apologise for trying to mislead voters.

 

 

“The last time Jo Swinson and her party were as close to the Tories as these charts claim, they were in government voting for the bedroom tax, privatising the NHS, tripling tuition fees and cutting taxes for the super-rich and big business.”

Damian Lyons Lowe, the founder and chief executive of Survation, said Flavible’s model uses a simple methodology that compares the headline results in an opinion poll with the previous general election and applies the swing to each party contesting a seat

 

“Uniform national swing is unlikely to be able to capture accurately the specific dynamics occurring in a single seat – that does not mean such estimates outside of our control are incorrect, but exercises that capture the dynamics of a single-seat – such as constituency polls or modelling techniques such as multilevel regression and post stratification are much more likely to be an accurate reflection,” Lowe said.

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/05/liberal-democrats-accused-using-misleading-data-election-material?__twitter_impression=true

 

[Duff Man]

Just really bad politics imo. Even their own supporters are calling them out on it.

[Strontium]

"This pollster doesn't say what I want it to say, therefore it's fake and wrong"

 

As I always say, the only poll that matters is on election day. Let's see what happens then before we start making judgments about methodology.

[Bjornebye]

4 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

"This pollster doesn't say what I want it to say, therefore it's fake and wrong"

 

As I always say, the only poll that matters is on election day. Let's see what happens then before we start making judgments about methodology.

HYPOCRISY 

[Strontium]

Do I even dare ask why? No, probably not.

[Bjornebye]

 

 

 

[Bjornebye]

1 minute ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

Do I even dare ask why? No, probably not.

You post poll figures all the time ! 

 

 

[A Red]

You have to hand it to Stig, when it comes to following someone hes fucking brilliant. Best man marker I've ever seen.

[Bjornebye]

3 minutes ago, A Red said:

You have to hand it to Stig, when it comes to following someone hes fucking brilliant. Best man marker I've ever seen.

I sat through Swinsons speech earlier. Its topical. 

[Strontium]

5 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

You post poll figures all the time ! 

 

Sure, but I don't claim them to be the be all and end all.

 

I have my doubts about the accuracy of Flavible's predictions, but I'm not going to write them off as fake news, or claim that any party which utilises them are fakey cake makers.

[Bjornebye]

1 minute ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

Sure, but I don't claim them to be the be all and end all.

 

I have my doubts about the accuracy of Flavible's predictions, but I'm not going to write them off as fake news, or claim that any party which utilises them are fakey cake makers.

I actually agree that the only poll that matters is the election. I always question these opinion polls. Who gets asked? Do they just walk down the street and ask people? Or use media platforms? Either of which skews opinion. 

[Strontium]

It varies. Usually phone or internet these days. You're right that it skews responses, which is why pollsters try to correct for that via weighting.

 

So they would, for example, weight the responses of the 30-39 age group more highly than those of the 18-24 age group, on the basis that the latter is less likely to vote.

[ZonkoVille77]

Polls are fuckin shite IMO. Couldn't trust them.

[moof]

I’m reading that Swindon claims Corbyn is a threat because he won’t give submarine commanders the green light to nuke people? Is that true? Did she really say that?

[Captain Turdseye]

Flava Flavible

[Bjornebye]

4 minutes ago, moof said:

I’m reading that Swindon claims Corbyn is a threat because he won’t give submarine commanders the green light to nuke people? Is that true? Did she really say that?

She said something along the lines of he is a threat to national security and that one of the first jobs as new Pm has to do is address the commanders and he can't be trusted. 

 

 

She then mentioned that only last night he painted a Bobby Sands mural on the side of her house and signed it "Shagging ducks isn't just a rich privilege". 

[moof]

1 minute ago, Bjornebye said:

She said something along the lines of he is a threat to national security and that one of the first jobs as new Pm has to do is address the commanders and he can't be trusted. 

 

 

She then mentioned that only last night he painted a Bobby Sands mural on the side of her house and signed it "Shagging ducks isn't just a rich privilege". 

The absolute boy

[Denny Crane]

44 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

"This pollster doesn't say what I want it to say, therefore it's fake and wrong"

 

As I always say, the only poll that matters is on election day. Let's see what happens then before we start making judgments about methodology.

Bit more than that. 

 

A spokesperson for Full Fact said: “It’s notoriously hard to reliably convert national polling results to local area. Flavible have, to their credit, explained their methodology. But political parties shouldn’t mislead voters by suggesting these results are reliable at the constituency level.

 

“And for politicians to say that these results are from “polling” – something we’ve had to fact check more than once already – is simply misleading.”

[Captain Turdseye]

You should be banned for making Bobby Sands jokes on here. Zero tolerance. 

 

One strike and you’re out. 

[moof]

1 minute ago, Captain Turdseye said:

 

One strike and you’re out. 

Jo Swindon’s military policy 

[A Red]

27 minutes ago, moof said:

I’m reading that Swindon claims Corbyn is a threat because he won’t give submarine commanders the green light to nuke people? Is that true? Did she really say that?

Dont know about that but Corbyns policy on nuclear weapons is a bit sketchy.