2021 Africa Cup of Nations

[Code]

[Jose Jones]

Yeah, going first and having your best taker 5th makes some sense.

Going second you want them to take an earlier one.

[Scott_M]

I don’t understand this conversation.

 

This whole topic of Salah going 5th is completely daft because by going 5th, he didn’t have an opportunity to take one. 
 

The same happened in an earlier round, only they won that game.

 

The whole debate is rendered pointless by what actually happened. 

[aws]

If debates going round and round in circles are pointless then that's the forum fucked. 

[Babb'sBurstNad]

47 minutes ago, Code said:

This backs up the position that your best taker shouldn't be taking number 5.

 

It shows that, if taking pens 1st the hardest pen is 2 or 4, and if taking pens 2nd the hardest is 4.

[JohnnyH]

1 hour ago, Code said:

The most confident player is usually the best penalty taker though. 
 

So basically this is a load of crap, the 5th penalty is statistically the deciding one, you want your best and most confident player to take that one.

 

Nonsense. 

[Code]

14 minutes ago, Babb'sBurstNad said:

This backs up the position that your best taker shouldn't be taking number 5.

 

It shows that, if taking pens 1st the hardest pen is 2 or 4, and if taking pens 2nd the hardest is 4.

In your scenario every player has the same ability, they dont. 

[JohnnyH]

1 hour ago, Code said:

Hahaha. Jesus, this literally proves you wrong. Oh Code….

[Code]

1 minute ago, JohnnyH said:

Hahaha. Jesus, this literally proves you wrong. Oh Code….

Maybe it looks that way if you dont have the capacity to understand it.

[Kevin D]

35 minutes ago, aws said:

If debates going round and round in circles are pointless then that's the forum fucked. 

 

Political correctness gone mad.

[KMD7]

1 hour ago, Vincent Vega said:

 

[JohnnyH]

31 minutes ago, Code said:

Maybe it looks that way if you dont have the capacity to understand it.

Hahaha.  Classic Code.

[JohnnyH]

1 hour ago, Code said:

Oh my God.  I've just realised.  You thought the blue 81% line with "5th" underneath it was denoting the 5th penalty didn't you?  Didn't you?

 

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

 

Oh Dear

 

Oh Code

 

EDIT – I should add, I’m only taking the piss because it’s Code.  We all make mistakes, especially on footy forums. But Codes absolute dismissal of anyone else who dares to disagree with him, and his total inability to even countenance someone else’s slightly differing opinion, often just replying with one of his weak “putdowns” makes this all very funny.

[Supremolad]

1 hour ago, Code said:

This is not the best analysis to use. BBC are showing stats from penalty shootouts in World cups. That is a small sample size. I reckon there have been far fewer than 100 penalty shootouts in World Cup history. Most likely not even up to 50.

 

The best research on penalty shootouts is the one I posted earlier from InStat. They studied thousands of shootouts. A bigger sample size, which shows that the 5th kick is harder to score than the 1st one. Hence if you had to choose between 1st and 5th, it makes more sense to have your best kicker on the 5th.

[TheHowieLama]

The only thing more depressing than this discussion is the realization that this crapfest comes around again in just over a years time.

[Code]

51 minutes ago, JohnnyH said:

Oh my God.  I've just realised.  You thought the blue 81% line with "5th" underneath it was denoting the 5th penalty didn't you?  Didn't you?

 

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

 

Oh Dear

 

Oh Code

 

EDIT – I should add, I’m only taking the piss because it’s Code.  We all make mistakes, especially on footy forums. But Codes absolute dismissal of anyone else who dares to disagree with him, and his total inability to even countenance someone else’s slightly differing opinion, often just replying with one of his weak “putdowns” makes this all very funny.

No I did not, Im saying the pressure of taking the 5th penalty compared to the 1st, 2nd and 3rd is massive and thats why it makes sense to use your most secure penalty takers at the end.

 

If someone misses the first or second penalty, imagine the pressure how he would feel if he was going to take the 5th. 
 

Penalty shot outs usually get decided on the 5th penalty, thats why you put your best penalty taker there. 

[Butch]

2 hours ago, Kevin D said:

 

Well deserved.

 

2 hours ago, Vincent Vega said:

Some man for one man. 

[Babb'sBurstNad]

1 hour ago, Code said:

In your scenario every player has the same ability, they dont. 

If that's such a crucial variable, posting any stats without it being quantified and incorporated into the data is meaningless.

[JohnnyH]

2 hours ago, Code said:

No I did not, Im saying the pressure of taking the 5th penalty compared to the 1st, 2nd and 3rd is massive and thats why it makes sense to use your most secure penalty takers at the end.

 

If someone misses the first or second penalty, imagine the pressure how he would feel if he was going to take the 5th. 
 

Penalty shot outs usually get decided on the 5th penalty, thats why you put your best penalty taker there. 

Oh dear.

[CapeRed]

3 hours ago, Code said:

No I did not, Im saying the pressure of taking the 5th penalty compared to the 1st, 2nd and 3rd is massive and thats why it makes sense to use your most secure penalty takers at the end.

 

If someone misses the first or second penalty, imagine the pressure how he would feel if he was going to take the 5th. 
 

Penalty shot outs usually get decided on the 5th penalty, thats why you put your best penalty taker there. 

Barney Rubble in Rome was our 5th wasnt he???

[Scott_M]

Has anybody pointed out that Egypt did have their best taker go first?

[Scott_M]

That’s the attitude Mo…

 

[Bjornebye]

5 hours ago, Code said:

No I did not, Im saying the pressure of taking the 5th penalty compared to the 1st, 2nd and 3rd is massive and thats why it makes sense to use your most secure penalty takers at the end.

 

If someone misses the first or second penalty, imagine the pressure how he would feel if he was going to take the 5th. 
 

Penalty shot outs usually get decided on the 5th penalty, thats why you put your best penalty taker there. 

 

 

[Guest Alex_K]

6 hours ago, Supremolad said:

The best research on penalty shootouts is the one I posted earlier from InStat. They studied thousands of shootouts. A bigger sample size, which shows that the 5th kick is harder to score than the 1st one. Hence if you had to choose between 1st and 5th, it makes more sense to have your best kicker on the 5th.

 

 

Do you understand that any notion of the 5th being "more difficult to take" on a like-for-like basis with the 1st (the variance in your stats is miniscule - less than 1.5%) is offset by the fact that on approx. 20 occasions out of 100, the 5th kick is not even taken?

[Aventus]

I'm going to be the contrarian and say the best taker should go 3rd.