Scottish Independence, yay or nay?

[aws]

I don't agree and believe Salmond has bet everything on this referendum. As has been said Scottish Independence is his raison d'etre

I think he has also miscalculated badly regarding the crucial issue of currency . If he wins the vote then he will not be negotiating from a position of strength at all. He needs to have sterling and the UK government are restricted by rules governing tax and spend. They are not going to let a foreign country run its own tax and spend rules and underwrite their currency. Salmond will either have to have his hands completely tied over the Scottish economy or find an alternative. He will need the pound and the BOE backing much more than we need to accommodate an Independent Scotland. The Government here has the other 55 m citizens of the UK to consider and is not going to allow a foreign country to use the same currency with full backing and not have effective controls. Just look at Italy and Greece to see the result of having divergent fiscal rules and a common currency. Salmond is pissing in the wind and probably knows that if he thinks he will get what he wants after the vote.

All the promises he has made on social welfare and increased prosperity hinge on the currency issue. There is no plan B. To use Sterling without UK backing would make them extremely vulnerable. A new currency would be heavily discounted and very weak probably for years until they had built a track record. It's fraught with massive risks. Joining the Euro would not sit well with the populace and not a be a quick solution. As has been mentioned there is a political dimension to Scotland joining the EU that could take a long time to resolve. Spain in particular will not be accommodating. 

 

We are already seeing companies talking about the possibility of re-locating to the South with possible job losses and my view is that Scotland would have very rough time possible for many years if they vote yes. Eventually they could come through it a prosperous and viable country but they may have to endure years of pain to get there,

I suspect the vote will go against Salmond. The Labour party will breathe a sigh of relief as they can hang onto 40 odd seats in Parliament and the SNP would probably lose out in Scotland at the next election there .Independence and any further talk of separation or even "devo max" debate off the agenda for years. I don't think history will be kind to Alex Salmond whichever way this goes ,

Loads of political posturing at the moment which is best ignored. If it's a yes, there'll be a currency union and Salmond will make concessions about interest rate and fiscal divergence. He'll be giving back some of his autonomy but having widely different economic policies doesn't make sense anyway.

 

i agree that independence would be painful in the short/medium term but the possibility of a prosperous future is better than the certainty of long-term decline at the periphery of a state which is over-centralised and is constructed in a way which has always and will always suck all wealth to the centre.  

 

I think it will be a no but further devolution will always be on the agenda. If (say) 40% vote yes then they're not just going to say "fair enough i'll shut up in future then".

[Champ]

 

I think it will be a no but further devolution will always be on the agenda. If (say) 40% vote yes then they're not just going to say "fair enough i'll shut up in future then".

 

It will be very interesting to see what the turn out is. My guess is that it will be pretty high. No-one will be able to use the excuse of, 'well, nothing ever changes, anyway'

[mattyq]

i agree that the Scots were very active and willing participants in the excesses of the British Empire and lots of them did very nicely out of it but the Empire is now gone and the history of English oppression of the Scots long pre-dates the Act of Union. So if they now decide they'd rather rule themselves then I don't think it's right to equate that wish with unpleasant fascist/nationalist movements in certain other countries.

 

I'd agree that the history of English oppression pre-dates the Union...who can deny Edward I and his ilk.

Don't forget that the Scots have invaded England plenty of times sacking York and other northern cities on several occasions 

Also, the King of Scotland, James the VI did go on to become James I of England so i'd say there was more oppression from both sets of homicidal ruling classes towards their own and their opposite numbers rest of population/peasants.

No doubt, in my enthusiasm, i did go overboard slightly in labeling the Nats as crypto fascists though, i dare say, there probably are quite a few foaming at the mouth at the latest imaginary slight and insult handed down by the evil English

[stringvest]

I've got a bit of work to do just now but I am on this. I'll be back

 

...and off Champ skipped, to replace the blown fuse on the patient's life support machine...

[Champ]

...and off Champ skipped, to replace the blown fuse on the patient's life support machine...

Curious. What do you think I do?

[stringvest]

Are you not still doing the warm up for the Take the High Road studio audience?

[Champ]

Not that either

[stringvest]

bloody hell it's a dog eat dog world in Grampian studios.

[aws]

I'd agree that the history of English oppression pre-dates the Union...who can deny Edward I and his ilk.

Don't forget that the Scots have invaded England plenty of times sacking York and other northern cities on several occasions 

Also, the King of Scotland, James the VI did go on to become James I of England so i'd say there was more oppression from both sets of homicidal ruling classes towards their own and their opposite numbers rest of population/peasants.

No doubt, in my enthusiasm, i did go overboard slightly in labeling the Nats as crypto fascists though, i dare say, there probably are quite a few foaming at the mouth at the latest imaginary slight and insult handed down by the evil English

Well the English are pretty evil.....

[Champ]

It will be very interesting to see what the turn out is. My guess is that it will be pretty high. No-one will be able to use the excuse of, 'well, nothing ever changes, anyway'

Although, on reflection, I've had more discussion with people on here than I have with any of my friends and work colleagues about the pros and cons of independence. Again, it will be interesting to see if that changes at all as it gets closer to the referendum

[Phoenix]

I don't agree and believe Salmond has bet everything on this referendum. As has been said Scottish Independence is his raison d'etre

I think he has also miscalculated badly regarding the crucial issue of currency . If he wins the vote then he will not be negotiating from a position of strength at all. He needs to have sterling and the UK government are restricted by rules governing tax and spend. They are not going to let a foreign country run its own tax and spend rules and underwrite their currency. Salmond will either have to have his hands completely tied over the Scottish economy or find an alternative. He will need the pound and the BOE backing much more than we need to accommodate an Independent Scotland. The Government here has the other 55 m citizens of the UK to consider and is not going to allow a foreign country to use the same currency with full backing and not have effective controls. Just look at Italy and Greece to see the result of having divergent fiscal rules and a common currency. Salmond is pissing in the wind and probably knows that if he thinks he will get what he wants after the vote.

All the promises he has made on social welfare and increased prosperity hinge on the currency issue. There is no plan B. To use Sterling without UK backing would make them extremely vulnerable. A new currency would be heavily discounted and very weak probably for years until they had built a track record. It's fraught with massive risks. Joining the Euro would not sit well with the populace and not a be a quick solution. As has been mentioned there is a political dimension to Scotland joining the EU that could take a long time to resolve. Spain in particular will not be accommodating. 

 

We are already seeing companies talking about the possibility of re-locating to the South with possible job losses and my view is that Scotland would have very rough time possible for many years if they vote yes. Eventually they could come through it a prosperous and viable country but they may have to endure years of pain to get there,

I suspect the vote will go against Salmond. The Labour party will breathe a sigh of relief as they can hang onto 40 odd seats in Parliament and the SNP would probably lose out in Scotland at the next election there .Independence and any further talk of separation or even "devo max" debate off the agenda for years. I don't think history will be kind to Alex Salmond whichever way this goes ,

 

This is my take on it too.

[mattyq]

Well the English are pretty evil.....

[magicrat]

Loads of political posturing at the moment which is best ignored. If it's a yes, there'll be a currency union and Salmond will make concessions about interest rate and fiscal divergence. He'll be giving back some of his autonomy but having widely different economic policies doesn't make sense anyway.

 

i agree that independence would be painful in the short/medium term but the possibility of a prosperous future is better than the certainty of long-term decline at the periphery of a state which is over-centralised and is constructed in a way which has always and will always suck all wealth to the centre.  

 

I think it will be a no but further devolution will always be on the agenda. If (say) 40% vote yes then they're not just going to say "fair enough i'll shut up in future then".

 

I think you under-estimate the difficulty Salmond will have getting a deal he can sell to keep Sterling with full UK backing if he wins the vote.

Of course devolution won't go away with a no vote but with the SNP out of power and possibly with Salmond gone its not going to gain much traction for years . Whether the best thing for Scotland long term is separation its impossible to say. My instinct is that it's probably not but I consider myself British first, English second . Many Scots patently don't feel the same and to my mind that's a pity. I hope that if they vote no that issue is addressed. if they vote yes then we can kiss goodbye to any medals for curling in the future !

[xerxes]

 If it's a yes, there'll be a currency union

Why?

 

The English tax payer has no interest in underwriting a foreign country's banks.

 

Scottish business would have to bear transaction costs themselves with an independent currency to keep business competitive, English business would simply load the cost onto the sale price, as would other EU members. It will be an expensive business being Scottish.

 

But there again Scotland already has the pound, EU, and pension rights underwritten by the London Government as part of the Union- perhaps Salmond should join the No campaign to get what he wants?

[aws]

Why?

 

The English tax payer has no interest in underwriting a foreign country's banks.

 

Scottish business would have to bear transaction costs themselves with an independent currency to keep business competitive, English business would simply load the cost onto the sale price, as would other EU members. It will be an expensive business being Scottish.

 

But there again Scotland already has the pound, EU, and pension rights underwritten by the London Government as part of the Union- perhaps Salmond should join the No campaign to get what he wants?

Don't believe the hype. It won't be in the interest of the rest of the UK to see Scotland walk away with no national debt and complete freedom to compete on corporation tax etc. with the UK economy.

[xerxes]

Don't believe the hype. It won't be in the interest of the rest of the UK to see Scotland walk away with no national debt and complete freedom to compete on corporation tax etc. with the UK economy.

Prof Huw Dixon, a Welshman, from Cardiff business school, addresses some of the economic issues you raise not as hype, but as economic reality. I quoted him in a previous post.

 

You make the assumption that Salmond does, that Scotland can decouple from the UK on its terms ( walk away with no national debt). It can’t. It cannot walk away with the good bits and leave the bad bits behind.

 

If independence is the be all and end all, Scotland can do what it likes. But the cost of setting up its own currency, banking guarantees, pensions, bearing transaction charges, all outside the EU would mean that pretty much any Corporation tax rate would not only be irrelevant, but it would further deplete vital income for the country. The likelihood that all canny scots would keep their savings in sterling accounts means that a new currency is also likely to be strangled at birth.

 

Scotland is a viable entity in the medium to long term, but the short to medium hit that the country and economy would take ( at least a decade) will be too long for any Scot with an eye on the coins ( of whatever denomination) in his or her pocket.

[magicrat]

Prof Huw Dixon, a Welshman, from Cardiff business school, addresses some of the economic issues you raise not as hype, but as economic reality. I quoted him in a previous post.

 

You make the assumption that Salmond does, that Scotland can decouple from the UK on its terms ( walk away with no national debt). It can’t. It cannot walk away with the good bits and leave the bad bits behind.

 

If independence is the be all and end all, Scotland can do what it likes. But the cost of setting up its own currency, banking guarantees, pensions, bearing transaction charges, all outside the EU would mean that pretty much any Corporation tax rate would not only be irrelevant, but it would further deplete vital income for the country. The likelihood that all canny scots would keep their savings in sterling accounts means that a new currency is also likely to be strangled at birth.

 

Scotland is a viable entity in the medium to long term, but the short to medium hit that the country and economy would take ( at least a decade) will be too long for any Scot with an eye on the coins ( of whatever denomination) in his or her pocket.

 

This pretty much agrees with what I've been saying. Salmond is completely winging it on the critical currency issue. He will not be any position of strength if he wins the vote . The only palatable option is to keep Sterling with BOE underwriting it. The alternatives will see a flight of capital

and investment. If I can work that out I'm sure Osbourne or Balls can and will insist of keeping their hands on the levers in Scotland. They cant do anything else and maintain credibility domestically. It's just not credible to expect UK taxpayers to underwrite the Scottish pound whilst at the same time allowing them to operate under a relaxed set of rules. His threat to walk away from the debt is risible and will land him in a massive pile of shit. Anyway all this is unlikely to pass imo . Enough Scots will surely join the dots and vote with their wallets.  Oh and by the way I can't stomach his lapdog Nicola Sturgeon..

[xerxes]

Salmond is completely winging it on the critical currency issue.

Exactly.

 

It will also not be long before the Scots ask why they have to have independence to keep the pound , their pensions, and their EU membership, when they already have them.

[aws]

Poor old Scots. They really don't understand this financial stuff.

[Paul]

Nay.

[Champ]

Nay.

You're nae spellin it right

[magicrat]

Poor old Scots. They really don't understand this financial stuff.

Gordon Brown certainly didn't

[aws]

Gordon Brown certainly didn't

Excellent point.

 

And he's against independence of course.

[Pony Princess]

Things will be exactly the same except Scotland will not be part of the UK.  What are ya'll expecting, haggis bombs and not being able to get in the office because of a line of me in kilts showing their arses?

 

Scots will probably do better away from the faggery-daggery-doo of this country.  They have the right idea, bailing out of Britbongistan.

[General Dryness]

You're nae spellin it right

 

Hudnae havnae wisnae didnae.

 

Long time Irvine Welsh reader.