2021 Africa Cup of Nations

[Code]

2 minutes ago, Josef Svejk said:

You might want to re-read that. 

Even the best players buckle under the pressure from the fifth penalty. 

[Josef Svejk]

5 minutes ago, Code said:

Even the best players buckle under the pressure from the fifth penalty. 

Then it remains a trade off between best penalty takers, pressure of penalty, and likelihood that penalty will even be taken.

 

I suggest having your best taker in the first three or four, depending on whether you're going first or second. 

 

But I'm not sure what the evidence ultimately supports here. 

[Babb'sBurstNad]

If the logic is fifth has more pressure on it, so is harder, then sudden death pens are harder still, so why not shift your best player to 6th? The answer is simple, the further down the order, the less likely they'll take a pen.

 

Your best should be somewhere 1-4 - we can argue where - but fifth so often doesn't take a pen.

[m0e]

57 minutes ago, Josef Svejk said:

I don't know what the evidence tells us here one way or another. I'm genuinely curious. 

 

But as usual you're absolutely certain of your own point of view. 

If 20% don't make it to the 5th, that's because 2 or more missed their pens.

 

Hence, it doesn't really make a difference if your best taker scores first.

 

And because the pressure intensifies, the odds of the lesser takers missing actually increases.

[TheHowieLama]

7 minutes ago, m0e said:

If 20% don't make it to the 5th, that's because 2 or more missed their pens.

 

If your team goes second then one miss can end it.

[sir roger]

The usual pantomine with the referee keeping everybody waiting while he bores the goalies to death about staying on their line and then ignoring it completely when they end up on the six yard box as the pens are taken.

[Code]

The one mistake Mo did do today though, is that it looked to me that he picked first, and he picked to shoot in the Egypt end, instead of Egypt taking the first penalty. 
 

Statistically the team who starts have a bigger chance to win, there is always more pressure if you play catch up.

[m0e]

24 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

If your team goes second then one miss can end it.

But that means the other team has scored all 5.

 

So how does having your best taker score first help in any way?

[Kevin D]

28 minutes ago, Code said:

The one mistake Mo did do today though, is that it looked to me that he picked first, and he picked to shoot in the Egypt end, instead of Egypt taking the first penalty. 
 

Statistically the team who starts have a bigger chance to win, there is always more pressure if you play catch up.

 

I think Salah's biggest mistake was not inventing a time machine and stopping Mane's conception in July 1991.

 

He shared the pitch with a real pro tonight; both the player of the tournament and the trophy are going home with the right winner.

[sir roger]

Didn't realise these two ( Egypt and Senegal )  have a two-leg World Cup qualifier next month.

[Supremolad]

2 hours ago, suzy said:

Also he’s not a regular pen taker.

He is Senegal's regular taker. He even scored one for them earlier in the tournament. They consider him their best penalty taker so they rightly had him as the 5th taker and he won them the cup with his kick.

[Guest Alex_K]

4 hours ago, Code said:

So the other 80% do not count then? Some logic this. 

? Are you really as parochial as you seem?

The first taker has 100% chance of taking a penalty.

The second taker has 100% chance of taking a penalty.

The third taker (if shooting first) has 100% chance of taking a penalty.

 

From that point on, it is completely out of the hands of the taker as to whether they will actually get a shot. With the best of intentions in the world, Mo Salah has absolutely no say in the matter as to whether he will have a penalty to take - whether he will have the opportunity to alleviate pressure, or to seal the win. The 80% chance I referred to is not a simple 1-out-of-5-chance-of-shooting based on 5 takers, but based on the fact that of every 5 shoot-outs analysed at WCs/Euros/Coppa Americas, only 4 are shown to proceed to or past the fifth kick (stats Bobby McMahon, Forbes).

 

Someone above is obliviously completely proving my point, as they are citing statistics that show on a kick-for-kick basis a 5th taker has 1.4% more chance to miss than a 1st (this statistic of course does not reference the variance in skill of taker concerned) -- this 1.4% gap is miniscule, and by far off-set from the vast reduction in shooters that get an opportunity to score at 1 vs 5.

 

 

3 hours ago, Code said:

Because of the pressure in taking what is a deciding penalty compared to one where four other players will step up after you is massive. 

 

The point is that four other players do not by definition step up after you. If the predecessors do not score, the fifth is an irrelevance. Do you understand this basic point?

 

If you want to apply a hyperbolic "best penalty taker should be in the most stressful position", then by nature this would often be the 3rd or 4th taker. Trusting the penalty shoot-out to reach number 5 is a crap-shoot that occurs c. 80% of the time, and to be decided by that penalty even less so (as of the c. 80% of shoot outs that reach 5, many continue onwards and are not decided at 5 there-and-then). Conversely a shoot out reaches the third shot 100% of the time if shooting first, and greater than 80% thereafter until shooting final-fifth shot.

 

The object of the game is to put your difference-making players in a position where they can affect difference.

 

Anyway, as you were ..

[A_S]

I didn't realise it was Senegal's first title. Given their WC appearances, I assumed they had a handful of AFCON wins. 

 

It puts Sadio's pair of penalties even more in perspective. 

[Code]

4 hours ago, Alex_K said:

? Are you really as parochial as you seem?

The first taker has 100% chance of taking a penalty.

The second taker has 100% chance of taking a penalty.

The third taker (if shooting first) has 100% chance of taking a penalty.

 

From that point on, it is completely out of the hands of the taker as to whether they will actually get a shot. With the best of intentions in the world, Mo Salah has absolutely no say in the matter as to whether he will have a penalty to take - whether he will have the opportunity to alleviate pressure, or to seal the win. The 80% chance I referred to is not a simple 1-out-of-5-chance-of-shooting based on 5 takers, but based on the fact that of every 5 shoot-outs analysed at WCs/Euros/Coppa Americas, only 4 are shown to proceed to or past the fifth kick (stats Bobby McMahon, Forbes).

 

Someone above is obliviously completely proving my point, as they are citing statistics that show on a kick-for-kick basis a 5th taker has 1.4% more chance to miss than a 1st (this statistic of course does not reference the variance in skill of taker concerned) -- this 1.4% gap is miniscule, and by far off-set from the vast reduction in shooters that get an opportunity to score at 1 vs 5.

 

 

 

The point is that four other players do not by definition step up after you. If the predecessors do not score, the fifth is an irrelevance. Do you understand this basic point?

 

If you want to apply a hyperbolic "best penalty taker should be in the most stressful position", then by nature this would often be the 3rd or 4th taker. Trusting the penalty shoot-out to reach number 5 is a crap-shoot that occurs c. 80% of the time, and to be decided by that penalty even less so (as of the c. 80% of shoot outs that reach 5, many continue onwards and are not decided at 5 there-and-then). Conversely a shoot out reaches the third shot 100% of the time if shooting first, and greater than 80% thereafter until shooting final-fifth shot.

 

The object of the game is to put your difference-making players in a position where they can affect difference.

 

Anyway, as you were ..

Oh dear.

[Paulie Dangerously]

Take it to the penalty statistics thread lads 

[JohnnyH]

Every single former pro footballer on social media that I saw was saying it’s daft to have your regular penalty takers at the 5th penalty. The idea your top penalty taker has a 1 in 5 chance of not even taking a penalty is crazy, to them. Very hard to argue with that and their experience. 
 

I saw an interesting comment made by one former pro (I can’t remember who?) that you don’t put your best penalty taker 5th, just your most confident/ in form player. I.e. no point saving your best penalty taker until last if he’s had a poor game. You have at least 5 players who can strike a ball cleanly, so put the most confident in at 5th. 
 

Anyway, all the former pros said it’s daft to keep your main penalty taker to the end. That was proven tonight with Salah not even getting to take a penalty. 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

9 minutes ago, JohnnyH said:

Every single former pro footballer on social media that I saw was saying it’s daft to have your regular penalty takers at the 5th penalty. The idea your top penalty taker has a 1 in 5 chance of not even taking a penalty is crazy, to them. Very hard to argue with that and their experience. 
 

I saw an interesting comment made by one former pro (I can’t remember who?) that you don’t put your best penalty taker 5th, just your most confident/ in form player. I.e. no point saving your best penalty taker until last if he’s had a poor game. You have at least 5 players who can strike a ball cleanly, so put the most confident in at 5th. 
 

Anyway, all the former pros said it’s daft to keep your main penalty taker to the end. That was proven tonight with Salah not even getting to take a penalty. 

See also...

Stevie G in Istanbul.

[Code]

31 minutes ago, JohnnyH said:

Every single former pro footballer on social media that I saw was saying it’s daft to have your regular penalty takers at the 5th penalty. The idea your top penalty taker has a 1 in 5 chance of not even taking a penalty is crazy, to them. Very hard to argue with that and their experience. 
 

I saw an interesting comment made by one former pro (I can’t remember who?) that you don’t put your best penalty taker 5th, just your most confident/ in form player. I.e. no point saving your best penalty taker until last if he’s had a poor game. You have at least 5 players who can strike a ball cleanly, so put the most confident in at 5th. 
 

Anyway, all the former pros said it’s daft to keep your main penalty taker to the end. That was proven tonight with Salah not even getting to take a penalty. 

Were these English players?

[JohnnyH]

35 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

See also...

Stevie G in Istanbul.

 

13 minutes ago, Code said:

Were these English players?

The above comment about Gerrard reminded me who it was. It was Hamann. So a German talking about penalties. I know you’ll disagree anyway Code even though it’s comments from successful former players, but it’s worth replying to you just to watch you try and ignore your own “were these English players?” comment and then tell us how a German international (amongst a whole host of other top flight former professional footballers) knows nothing and you’re right.
 

Also, as Hamann said, Gerrard wasn’t the first choice penalty taker at Liverpool in 2005. Hamann, when messaging back and forth with Carragher, said Rafas thought was Gerrard was our most confident player, thus 5th. 

[Total Longo]

7 hours ago, sir roger said:

Didn't realise these two ( Egypt and Senegal )  have a two-leg World Cup qualifier next month.

Oh great, another 180 minutes of them both playing for penalties. 

[Butch]

1 hour ago, Paulie Dangerously said:

Take it to the penalty statistics thread lads 

 

[Jack the Sipper]

8 hours ago, sir roger said:

The usual pantomine with the referee keeping everybody waiting while he bores the goalies to death about staying on their line and then ignoring it completely when they end up on the six yard box as the pens are taken.

 

I didn't notice that at all. One foot on the line as the kick is taken, as I understand it. Which they both seem to have complied with.

 

 

[Vincent Vega]

[Code]

32 minutes ago, JohnnyH said:

 

The above comment about Gerrard reminded me who it was. It was Hamann. So a German talking about penalties. I know you’ll disagree anyway Code even though it’s comments from successful former players, but it’s worth replying to you just to watch you try and ignore your own “were these English players?” comment and then tell us how a German international (amongst a whole host of other top flight former professional footballers) knows nothing and you’re right.
 

Also, as Hamann said, Gerrard wasn’t the first choice penalty taker at Liverpool in 2005. Hamann, when messaging back and forth with Carragher, said Rafas thought was Gerrard was our most confident player, thus 5th. 

The most confident player is usually the best penalty taker though. 
 

So basically this is a load of crap, the 5th penalty is statistically the deciding one, you want your best and most confident player to take that one.

 

Like I said yesterday, if I got it right and Egypt got to pick, the one mistake they made was to pick their end, instead of taking the first penalty. 

[Kevin D]

2 minutes ago, Vincent Vega said:

 

Well deserved.