Should the UK remain a member of the EU

[Jairzinho]

 

[Gnasher]

9 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

A think tank says that employers in some sectors "must" improve pay and conditions.  Show me some evidence (apart from some areas of constuction) that they have improved and that the improvement is a result of Brexit. 

 

And while you're at it, get that cough seen to.

 

Employers are crying out for Labour, that's a fact, the economy is predicted to grow above expectations, that's also a fact. 

 

If big employers are struggling to fill vacancies it obviously gives the employee/potential employee a stronger hand in the workplace!  Its just the  simple case of supply not matching demand. What's so difficult to understand?

[AngryOfTuebrook]

5 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

I've gave loads of links above Angry. All sectors in all areas are experiencing labour shortages and its all over the country, if you can't see it I suggest you need to get out a bit more.

 

 

Ive gave plenty of evidence in links above Angry. I'm surprised you need them to be honest. It's common knowledge their is a labour shortage in almost all sectors throughout the country, if you can't see that I suggest you get out a bit more.

I've read all your links. They say that there are labour shortages in migrant-dependent sectors (not "almost all" sectors). They do not say that Brexit is bringing in a golden age of workers' power: you made that bit up.

[Gnasher]

8 minutes ago, Jairzinho said:

 

He's no John Prescott.

[Gnasher]

6 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

I've read all your links. They say that there are labour shortages in migrant-dependent sectors (not "almost all" sectors). They do not say that Brexit is bringing in a golden age of workers' power: you made that bit up.

You seem irked that the pendulum has swung away from the employer towards the employee Angry. 

 

If a kid from a housing estate wants to work on a building site they have a better opportunity now. If a youngster wants to work in a pub/restaurant they have a better opportunity now, if a person wants a bit of warehouse work they have more job opportunities now. Good, about time.

 

Unless your soneone like Tim from Weatherspoons theirs little to worry about. 

[Gnasher]

23 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

I've read all your links. They say that there are labour shortages in migrant-dependent sectors (not "almost all" sectors). They do not say that Brexit is bringing in a golden age of workers' power: you made that bit up.

OK let me put it another way. If Britain had a sensible competent center left govt under say Starmer/Milliband/Dodds would you now be fearful over our EU exit? No? So it's not brexit to fear its our own government, which is fair enough.

 

Most of the country would undoubtedly answer the above question no. The fear factors gone, Ursula and Co have been unmasked and even those with genuine concerns are content to just move on.

[Lario]

[Numero Veinticinco]

3 minutes ago, Colonel Kurtz said:

I was a remainer but have to concede that the dire predictions of an economic meltdown post Brexit were wrong. The £ has strengthened, the economy seeks to be about to be entering a boom period and imports/exports to the EU seem to be mostly working. I think a few more people on my side of the debate should acknowledge that it hasn’t been anywhere near as bad as predicted. 

Yeah? Any chance you can link me the 2026 data? 

[Gnasher]

43 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

Yeah? Any chance you can link me the 2026 data? 

I can, we're fucked.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

1 hour ago, Gnasher said:

You seem irked that the pendulum has swung away from the employer towards the employee Angry. 

No I don't.  Stop making shit up. It makes you look silly.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

1 hour ago, Gnasher said:

theirs little to worry about. 

You're going to freak when you find out who the Government are.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

1 hour ago, Gnasher said:

OK let me put it another way. If Britain had a sensible competent center left govt under say Starmer/Milliband/Dodds would you now be fearful over our EU exit? No? So it's not brexit to fear its our own government, which is fair enough.

 

Most of the country would undoubtedly answer the above question no. The fear factors gone, Ursula and Co have been unmasked and even those with genuine concerns are content to just move on.

A Starmer Government (or either Miliband  - I don't even know who Dodds is) would probably be better than this, to the extent that the Coalition was not as determinedly cruel as subsequent Tory Governments.  They wouldn’t have a focus on workers' rights and would probably be more concerned with making sure the bosses are alright. 

 

A democratic Socialist Government would have delivered a Brexit that respects workers' rights, including the rights of migrant workers. It would have minimised the harmful effects of Brexit. 

 

Workers would be better off if the UK was still in the EU, irrespective of the Government, for reasons that have been explained to you a million times. 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

1 hour ago, Colonel Kurtz said:

I was a remainer but have to concede that the dire predictions of an economic meltdown post Brexit were wrong. The £ has strengthened, the economy seeks to be about to be entering a boom period and imports/exports to the EU seem to be mostly working. I think a few more people on my side of the debate should acknowledge that it hasn’t been anywhere near as bad as predicted. 

"Mostly working" is a significant deterioration; especially when one of the areas in which they are definitely not working concerns the UK's only land border with the EU, where things are closer to getting shooty than they have been for 24 years.

 

You say that the worst predictions of the post-Brexit economy haven't materialised (although we've only been out for less than 18 months and, for obvious reasons, the economy has been fucking shite) but your persuaded by forecasts of sunlit uplands from now on. Fool me once...

 

[Gnasher]

38 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

A Starmer Government (or either Miliband  - I don't even know who Dodds is) would probably be better than this, to the extent that the Coalition was not as determinedly cruel as subsequent Tory Governments.  They wouldn’t have a focus on workers' rights and would probably be more concerned with making sure the bosses are alright. 

 

A democratic Socialist Government would have delivered a Brexit that respects workers' rights, including the rights of migrant workers. It would have minimised the harmful effects of Brexit. 

 

Workers would be better off if the UK was still in the EU, irrespective of the Government, for reasons that have been explained to you a million times. 

Annalise Dodds was shadow chancellor until recently, she seems pretty competent. You really think a government with Starmer, Milliband, Dodds would only "probably be better than this" wow. Unless I've misread you

 

As for your migrant workers and workers being better off in the EU all evidence is beginning to point to that being a fallacy. The 2 5 million or so construction workers have had decent pay rises and other sectors are looking to recruit. 

 

Brexit has indeed caused employers to raise wages and also provided more work opportunities for UK workers. The below link proved correct, why does it upset you?

 

 

https://www.business-live.co.uk/economic-development/brexit-causes-workforce-shortage-wage-17085881

[Gnasher]

42 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

A Starmer Government (or either Miliband  - I don't even know who Dodds is) would probably be better than this, to the extent that the Coalition was not as determinedly cruel as subsequent Tory Governments.  They wouldn’t have a focus on workers' rights and would probably be more concerned with making sure the bosses are alright. 

 

A democratic Socialist Government would have delivered a Brexit that respects workers' rights, including the rights of migrant workers. It would have minimised the harmful effects of Brexit. 

 

Workers would be better off if the UK was still in the EU, irrespective of the Government, for reasons that have been explained to you a million times. 

How would these construction workers who's wages hit an all time high in March be better off if we stayed in the EU?  

 

Approx annual 10% rise on Merseyside,

 

https://nationaltradesmen.co.uk/2021/04/19/all-construction-workers-see-rise-in-wages-in-march-2021/

[Numero Veinticinco]

Just now, Colonel Kurtz said:

You’re the first person I’ve read predicting a crash in 2026.

*blink*

 

What? No. I'm saying we're only just into the reality of Brexit - a few months of pandemic hit data - and we will need to wait. My sarcastic comment was really just a snipe at that. We don't know how Brexit will impact us over the long term, and predictions of year on year growth after such a dramatic downturn with impending austerity surely aren't worth the matchbox they're worked out on. 

[Bruce Spanner]

19 minutes ago, Colonel Kurtz said:

Well you seem to be in a small minority here. The OECD plus other economists are forecasting growth rates > 5% for at least the next 2 - 3 years then an average of 2% until 2030. You’re the first person I’ve read predicting a crash in 2026. Why do you think that will happen ? (Genuine question). 

 

Again, you present misleading infomation, why?

 

Here's the full text, including the bit you clipped from an artitle explaing UK Growth will be upgraded in line with global trends.

 

'It forecasts that UK GDP will rise by 7.2% in 2021, the fastest growth since 1941, after a 9.8% contraction in 2020 – the worst in almost 300 years. That would outpace other advanced economies, including the US. Back in March, the OECD had forecast UK growth of 5.1% this year. For 2022, growth has been revised significantly higher, too – to 5.5%, from 4.7% three months ago.

 

However, the OECD also warns that the UK could suffer more longer-term economic damage than other G7 industrialised nations, with the impact of leaving the EU adding to the disruption of the pandemic. The OECD examined how much potential output has been lost because of the coronavirus crisis, by comparing the latest projections for national income levels in 2025 with pre-pandemic forecasts.

 

It found that Japan, Canada and the US will only suffer limited scarring, with the US economy expected to be larger than previously forecast in four years’ time because of massive government stimulus. However, major eurozone members could experience a 0.3% annual decline in potential economic output, while the UK’s growth rate could be 0.5% a year lower than previously expected. The OECD said this was partly down to the impact of leaving the EU, as well as Covid-19.

 

“The United Kingdom could suffer the biggest reduction among G7 countries (a decline of 0.5 percentage point per annum), in part reflecting the additional adverse supply-side effects from 2021 following Brexit.”

 

The report also warns that “increased border costs following the exit from the EU single market will continue to weigh on foreign trade”.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/31/uk-growth-upgraded-but-oecd-warns-of-deepest-economic-scar-in-g7-brexit-covid-19#:~:text=Back in March%2C the OECD,from 4.7% three months ago.

 

 

Graph below shows global pattern with UK well below.

 

 

They upped their prediction based on the success of the vaccine roll out and other countries will fair as well if not better, so why peddle the sunlit uplands bullshit?

 

Second graph shows the contraction on goods and services export, one sticks out like a sore thumb, which would that be?

 

 

 

All of these are from the same source you quote, yet the picture I present is very, very different, why?

 

You should stop listening to your wives friends.

 

[Gnasher]

Apparently Greece are in worse financial situation than when they had the first crisis according to Yanis Varoufakis. The EU have helped in the financial destruction.

 

Trouble also brewing in Italy, people fucked off with eu imposed austerity,

 

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/04/26/opposition-to-austerity-outweighs-support-for-the-euro-in-italy/

 

 

 

[mattyq]

37 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

*blink*

 

What? No. I'm saying we're only just into the reality of Brexit - a few months of pandemic hit data - and we will need to wait. My sarcastic comment was really just a snipe at that. We don't know how Brexit will impact us over the long term, and predictions of year on year growth after such a dramatic downturn with impending austerity surely aren't worth the matchbox they're worked out on. 

We know exactly how Brexit will impact us in the long term

When you erect significant trade barriers between the UK and her biggest market and nearest neighbours then the outcome is pretty clear and not necessarily to our advantage

[Numero Veinticinco]

Just now, mattyq said:

We know exactly how Brexit will impact us in the long term

When you erect significant trade barriers between the UK and her biggest market and nearest neighbours then the outcome is pretty clear and not necessarily to our advantage

Okay. I guess I have a different definition of the word 'exact' than you on this one.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

57 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Annalise Dodds was shadow chancellor until recently, she seems pretty competent. You really think a government with Starmer, Milliband, Dodds would only "probably be better than this" wow. Unless I've misread you

 

As for your migrant workers and workers being better off in the EU all evidence is beginning to point to that being a fallacy. The 2 5 million or so construction workers have had decent pay rises and other sectors are looking to recruit. 

 

Brexit has indeed caused employers to raise wages and also provided more work opportunities for UK workers. The below link proved correct, why does it upset you?

 

 

https://www.business-live.co.uk/economic-development/brexit-causes-workforce-shortage-wage-17085881

That link hasn’t proven correct.  

 

The facts as they stand are:-

1. There are currently restrictions on international travel.

2. Industries which rely on migrant labour are suffering a labour shortage. 

3. Because house prices are increasing (to the detriment of people who, y'know, want somewhere to live) there's a bit of a  (short-term?) boost to construction, wages in that one sector are also seeing a (similarly short-term?) increase in wages.

4. There is no evidence of the degree to which that situation is attributable to Brexit or any reason to think it's permanent. 

5. It is really not a fallacy to state that workers in the EU are better off. They have more rights and protections. This applies doubly so to EU migrant workers.  That's self-evident, because, y'know, facts.

 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

1 hour ago, Gnasher said:

How would these construction workers who's wages hit an all time high in March be better off if we stayed in the EU?  

 

Approx annual 10% rise on Merseyside,

 

https://nationaltradesmen.co.uk/2021/04/19/all-construction-workers-see-rise-in-wages-in-march-2021/

Even that link doesn't claim it's all about Brexit.  In fact, it doesn't mention the B word.

[skend04]

3 hours ago, Colonel Kurtz said:

I was a remainer but ...

This is where I stopped reading. Was the rest of the post any good?

[AngryOfTuebrook]

37 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Trouble also brewing in Italy, people fucked off with eu imposed austerity,

 

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/04/26/opposition-to-austerity-outweighs-support-for-the-euro-in-italy/

 

 

If a hypothetical financial crisis led to a hypothetical bailout, which came with hypothetical conditions, a hypothetical referendum could go in favour of leaving the Euro.

 

Probably useful for policy makers to refer to, but calling it "trouble brewing" is it?

[Gnasher]

29 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

Even that link doesn't claim it's all about Brexit.  In fact, it doesn't mention the B word.

Nothing is all about one thing Angry, you're in denial. Don't know how long it'll last but at this precise moment most uk workers are doing OK. Leaving the EU and depleting the labour pool has resulted in increased wages and better job security.

 

Next time your in a pub or a cafe ask a builder, ask a few construction workers. It's not rocket science. Or ask Tim Martin.

 

Here you go..

 

https://www.fenews.co.uk/press-releases/79-sp-821/62662-jobs-boost-for-brits-in-construction-sector-brexit-bounce-back