Thursday Racing

[bobhorse]

Thursdays Racing my thoughts Wincant looks a good meeting to play forecasts as well as the singles

 

Wincanton

 

* 13:40 Cracking Cliché / Fiddling Again / Mums Chatterbox 3 x R/forecast

 

* 14:10 Ashwell / Never So Blue / Topless 3 x R/forecast

 

*** 14:40 Warringcamp NAP/ Pango / Chapoturgeon 3 x R/forecast the Nap is 11/1

so you can go e/way won the race last season and is fancied

* 15:10 Predateur / Fleet Street R/ Forcast

 

* 15:40 Cryptic / Ocean Du Moulin R/forecast

 

* 16:10 Fundermentalist / Pedros Brief R/forecast

 

*16:40 Michel Le Bon / Clafical / Frosty Spring 3 x R/forecast

 

 

Towcester

 

13:30 First Point

 

14:00 No More Tom / Millenium Mag R/forecast

 

14:30 Cortessia / Jaunty Flight R/forecast

 

**15:00 Ballygarry Bob

 

15:30 Pure Genius / Figuruta R/forecast

 

*16:00 Kings Euro

 

*16:30 Little George / Naulato R/forecast

 

 

Southwell

 

13:20 Kingsmate

 

13:50 Duke of Touraine

 

*14:20 Louisiade

 

*14:50 Contra Mundum

 

* 15:20 Welcome Releaf

 

**15:50 Bentley

 

16:20 Papas Image

 

 

Wolverhampton

 

*18:50 Toughtsofstardom

 

**19:20 Artic Desert

 

* 19:50 Cayman Calypso

 

* 20:20 Cow Girl

 

* 20:50 Especially / Tevez R/forecast

 

* 21:20 Cool Isle

 

 

Nad Al Sheba

 

*15:15 Secret Reason

 

*15:55 EA

 

*16:25 Vainglory / Jawil would be the selection if it got in the race

 

**16:55 Filios

 

*17:30 Blackcat Blackitten

 

*18:00 Lord Admiral

 

*8:30 The Illies

 

 

 

Well that is the day done Friday and Saturday have some nice Bets if the all turn out

 

Good Luck

[Victor Ganges]

Get some sleep.

[robbief]

i have 5 on:

 

filios @ 5/1

never so blue @ 11/4

chapoturgeon @ 5/4

predateur @ 15/8

 

returns - 730ish and 5 on:

 

never so blue @ 11/4

chapoturgeon @ 5/4

predateur @ 15/8

 

returns - 120

[robbief]

i actually think your due a good few winners bob, and am currently toying with a 50 quid eachway on your nap.

[SCOUSE TAPAS]

Cheers Bob the nap looks very tempting mate

[Randy Marsh]

i have 5 on:

 

filios @ 5/1

never so blue @ 11/4

chapoturgeon @ 5/4

predateur @ 15/8

 

 

Had a go at that, and put a 5er each way on the nap. Here's hoping!

[captainharris]

Todays results so far.

 

2:40 Wincanton

1. Chapoturgeon (FR) 11-10

2. Pagano (IRE) 5-2

7 ran

 

2:35 Thurles

1. King Troy (IRE) 13-8

2. Dicera (IRE) 12-1

3. Bella Mana Mou (IRE) 13-2

16 ran

 

2:30 Towcester

1. Sir Peter (IRE) 14-1

2. Jaunty Flight (GB) 10-11

3. Baseball Ted (IRE) 9-1

4. Lupita (IRE) 16-1

14 ran

 

2:20 Southwell

1. Louisiade (IRE) 5-2

2. Another Genepi (USA) 4-9

3. Capital Lass (GB) 33-1

4. Government (IRE) 14-1

4 ran

 

2:10 Wincanton

1. Never So Blue (FR) 4-1

2. Even More (IRE) 12-1

3. Wizard of Edge (GB) 7-1

4. Ashwell (IRE) 9-4

8 ran

 

2:05 Thurles

1. Jagoes Mills (IRE) 3-1

2. Spirit Run (IRE) 9-2

3. Jimmy Ber (IRE) 6-4

4. Oscar Dubh (IRE) 10-1

16 ran

 

2:00 Towcester

1. Ask The Umpire (IRE) 13-2

2. Furze Hill (IRE) 20-1

3. Kinkeel (IRE) 12-1

4. Glen Thyne (IRE) 6-1

14 ran

 

13:50 Southwell

1. Hieroglyph (GB) 2-1

2. Park Royal (UAE) 16-1

3. Contessina (IRE) 4-1

4. Duke of Touraine (IRE) 7-4

6 ran

 

13:40 Wincanton

1. Tizzy Blue (IRE) 14-1

2. Daraz Rose (IRE) 11-1

3. Charlottes Webb (IRE) 18-1

4. Double's Daughter (GB) 150-1

17 ran

 

13:30 Towcester

1. Masked Man (IRE) 9-1

2. Khachaturian (IRE) 16-1

3. Freddie The Third (IRE) 2-1

4. Captain Tidds (IRE) 14-1

14 ran

[captainharris]

3:00 Towcester

1. BallyGalley Bob (IRE) 3-1

2. Carryduff (GB) 5-2

3. Nagam (FR) 16-1

4. Harry Collins (GB) 20-1

10 ran

 

Well done bob, a winner at 3/1. Had an E/W on this.

[bobhorse]

Wincanton

 

* 13:40 Cracking Cliché / Fiddling Again / Mums Chatterbox 3 x R/forecast LOST

 

* 14:10 Ashwell / Never So Blue WINNER / Topless 3 x R/forecast

 

*** 14:40 Warringcamp NAP/ Pango 2nd / Chapoturgeon WINNER 3 x R/forecast the Nap is 11/1 exacta £5.20

so you can go e/way won the race last season and is fancied

 

* 15:10 Predateur / Fleet Street 3rd R/ Forcast LOST

 

* 15:40 Cryptic / Ocean Du Moulin R/forecast

 

* 16:10 Fundermentalist / Pedros Brief R/forecast

 

*16:40 Michel Le Bon / Clafical / Frosty Spring 3 x R/forecast

 

 

Towcester

 

13:30 First Point LOST

 

14:00 No More Tom / Millenium Mag R/forecast LOST

 

14:30 Cortessia / Jaunty Flight 2nd R/forecast LOST

 

**15:00 Ballygarry Bob Winner 3/1

 

15:30 Pure Genius / Figuruta R/forecast

 

*16:00 Kings Euro

 

*16:30 Little George / Naulato R/forecast

 

 

Southwell

 

13:20 Kings mate 4th

 

13:50 Duke of Touraine Lost

 

*14:20 Louisiade Winner 5/2 WINNER

 

*14:50 Contra Mundum 2nd

 

* 15:20 Welcome Releaf LOST

 

**15:50 Bentley

 

16:20 Papas Image

 

 

Wolverhampton

 

*18:50 Toughtsofstardom

 

**19:20 Artic Desert

 

* 19:50 Cayman Calypso

 

* 20:20 Cow Girl

 

* 20:50 Especially / Tevez R/forecast

 

* 21:20 Cool Isle

 

 

Nad Al Sheba

 

*15:15 Secret Reason LOST

 

*15:55 EA

 

*16:25 Vainglory / Jawil would be the selection if it got in the race

 

**16:55 Filios

 

*17:30 Blackcat Blackitten

 

*18:00 Lord Admiral

 

*8:30 The Illies

 

 

 

Well that is the day done Friday and Saturday have some nice Bets if the all turn out

 

Good Luck

[bobhorse]

I fancy that Cryptic in the next at Wincanton

 

but i havn't done to well there up to now

 

and this Pure Genius i have stuck them in a little double anyway

[captainharris]

I've had a win on Ballygarry bob, and two losses on EW bets for warringcamp and bently. Ive gone for another EW on filios at 16.55.. fingers crossed. I guess if i lose its just yesterdays winnings i'm playing with.. so no real damage done.

[bobhorse]

well right about that Cryptic pissed it 11 lengths

 

Pure Genius however certainly wasnt

[bobhorse]

This Triple Mint was entered up well this week and is going here instead of Wetherby on Saturday worth an e/way punt at Towcester

[Turkish Delight]

I'm happy with my day's gambling.

 

Used a 15 quid free bet to do a £7.50 each way on AsK The Umpire at 6/1 in the 2 O'clock at Towcester and then had a tenner on the nose on Kings Euro in the 4 o'clock at 7/2.

 

My only losing bet was doing a £7.50 each way double on Kings Euro with Bentley in the 3:50 at Southwell.

[greenoak]

Well I had the pantago and turgeon as a reverse f cast but i had no idea if i did it right as i only got 2.15 back from the 50p ew stake. But at least that covered the bently bet.

 

But I did not get these forecasts reverse things so i went to bookies and she had no idea either so lost a few quid there. At least it was only tiny stakes as i had no idea what i was doing.

 

Stick to singles and doubles as winners or ew places.

[captainharris]

Can someone let mw know how Filios gets on in the 16.55 please.

[bobhorse]

Wincanton Total points bet at meeting 9 (profit / loss) Loss 2.75

 

* 13:40 Cracking Cliché / Fiddling Again / Mums Chatterbox 3 x R/forecast LOST 1 point win

 

* 14:10 Ashwell / Never So Blue 4/1 WINNER / Topless 3 x R/forecast 1 point win

 

*** 14:40 Warringcamp NAP/ Pango 2nd / Chapoturgeon 11/10 WINNER 3 x R/forecast the Nap is 11/1 3 point win

so you can go e/way won the race last season and is fancied

 

* 15:10 Predateur / Fleet Street 3rd R/ Forcast LOST 1 point win

 

* 15:40 Cryptic WINNER 6/4 / Ocean Du Moulin R/forecast 1 point win

 

* 16:10 Fundermentalist WINNER 11/4 / Pedros Brief R/forecast 1 point win

 

*16:40 Michel Le Bon 3rd / Clafical / Frosty Spring 3 x R/forecast 1 point win

 

 

Towcester Total points bet at meeting 4 (profit / loss) Profit 8

 

13:30 First Point LOST

 

14:00 No More Tom / Millenium Mag R/forecast LOST

 

14:30 Cortessia / Jaunty Flight 2nd R/forecast LOST

 

**15:00 Ballygarry Bob Winner 3/1 2 point win

 

15:30 Pure Genius / Figuruta R/forecast LOST

 

*16:00 Kings Euro WINNER 3/1 1 point win

 

*16:30 Little George 3rd / Naulato 11/4 WINNER R/forecast 1 point win

 

 

Southwell Total points bet at meeting 5 (profit / loss) 1.5 loss

 

13:20 Kings mate 4th

 

13:50 Duke of Touraine Lost

 

*14:20 Louisiade Winner 5/2 WINNER

 

*14:50 Contra Mundum 2nd

 

* 15:20 Welcome Releaf LOST

 

**15:50 Bentley Lost 5th 2 point win Stable won with other runner

 

16:20 Papas Image 3rd 9/2 stable won with other runner again

 

 

Wolverhampton Total points bet at meeting 7 (profit / loss)

 

 

*18:50 Toughtsofstardom 1 point win

 

**19:20 Artic Desert 2 point win

 

* 19:50 Cayman Calypso 1 point win

 

* 20:20 Cow Girl 1 point win

 

* 20:50 Especially / Tevez R/forecast 1 point win

 

* 21:20 Cool Isle 1 point win

 

 

 

Nad Al Sheba Total points bet at meeting 8 (profit / loss)

 

 

*15:15 Secret Reason LOST 1 point win

 

*15:55 EA LOST 1 point win

 

*16:25 Vainglory / Jawil would be the selection if it got in the race LOST 1 point win

 

**16:55 Filios 2 point win LOST

 

*17:30 Blackcat Blackitten 1 point win

 

*18:00 Lord Admiral 1 point win

 

*8:30 The Illies 1 point win

 

 

 

Well that is the day done Friday and Saturday have some nice Bets if the all turn out

 

Good Luck

 

Total points Bet Today 33 Profit / Loss

 

The three day meetings if you backed every * , **, ***, bet to the points system returns Profit 3.75

[bobhorse]

Can someone let mw know how Filios gets on in the 16.55 please.

 

Lost mate ran a shocker

[captainharris]

Lost mate ran a shocker

 

Ah well.... i'm only £4 down today with one race left, that one would have put me a few quid in profit. Could have been worse.

[bobhorse]

Wincanton Total points bet at meeting 9 (profit / loss) Loss 2.75

 

* 13:40 Cracking Cliché / Fiddling Again / Mums Chatterbox 3 x R/forecast LOST 1 point win

 

* 14:10 Ashwell / Never So Blue 4/1 WINNER / Topless 3 x R/forecast 1 point win

 

*** 14:40 Warringcamp NAP/ Pango 2nd / Chapoturgeon 11/10 WINNER 3 x R/forecast the Nap is 11/1 exacta £5.20 3 point win

so you can go e/way won the race last season and is fancied

 

* 15:10 Predateur / Fleet Street 3rd R/ Forcast LOST 1 point win

 

* 15:40 Cryptic WINNER 6/4 / Ocean Du Moulin R/forecast 1 point win

 

* 16:10 Fundermentalist WINNER 11/4 / Pedros Brief R/forecast 1 point win

 

*16:40 Michel Le Bon 3rd / Clafical / Frosty Spring 3 x R/forecast 1 point win

 

 

Towcester Total points bet at meeting 4 (profit / loss) Profit 8

 

13:30 First Point LOST

 

14:00 No More Tom / Millenium Mag R/forecast LOST

 

14:30 Cortessia / Jaunty Flight 2nd R/forecast LOST

 

**15:00 Ballygarry Bob Winner 3/1 2 point win

 

15:30 Pure Genius / Figuruta R/forecast LOST

 

*16:00 Kings Euro WINNER 3/1 1 point win

 

*16:30 Little George 3rd / Naulato WINNER R/forecast 1 point win

 

 

Southwell Total points bet at meeting 5 (profit / loss) 1.5 loss

 

13:20 Kings mate 4th

 

13:50 Duke of Touraine Lost

 

*14:20 Louisiade Winner 5/2 WINNER

 

*14:50 Contra Mundum 2nd

 

* 15:20 Welcome Releaf LOST

 

**15:50 Bentley Lost 5th 2 point win Stable won with other runner

 

16:20 Papas Image 3rd 9/2 stable won with other runner again

 

 

Wolverhampton Total points bet at meeting 7 (profit / loss)

 

 

*18:50 Toughtsofstardom 1 point win

 

**19:20 Artic Desert 2 point win

 

* 19:50 Cayman Calypso 1 point win

 

* 20:20 Cow Girl 1 point win

 

* 20:50 Especially / Tevez R/forecast 1 point win

 

* 21:20 Cool Isle 1 point win

 

 

 

Nad Al Sheba Total points bet at meeting 8 (profit / loss) Profit 1.10

 

 

*15:15 Secret Reason LOST 1 point win

 

*15:55 EA LOST 1 point win

 

*16:25 Vainglory / Jawil would be the selection if it got in the race LOST 1 point win

 

**16:55 Filios 2 point win LOST

 

*17:30 Blackcat Blackitten WINNER 5/4 1 point win

 

*18:00 Lord Admiral WINNER 6/1 1 point win

 

*8:30 The Illies 1 point win

 

 

 

Well that is the day done Friday and Saturday have some nice Bets if the all turn out

 

Good Luck

 

Total points Bet Today 33 Profit / Loss

 

The three day meetings if you backed every * , **, ***, bet to the points system returns Profit 4. 85

[bobhorse]

Right that is all the Afternoon meetings finished now and we have a small Profit of 4.85 points we have 7 points at Wolverhampton tonight so we have a potential for a 2.15 Loss on the day if we fail to get a winner and that is from 5 meetings today should we lad some winners the profit for the day could increase

 

Anyone who made a loss today following these did so becase they fell into the trap that everyone but a few do and that is with there staking system

 

Many people decide the chance of the horse by its price on offer when that has little or nothing to do with it

 

what i mean by this is they see oh that is 4/1 i will back that one cos if i put £10 on i will have £50 when it wins and that will be enough to go out on Friday with etc

 

This isnt about Jam today its about Jam everyday trying to make a regular profit from betting

 

Hands up how many people actually bothered to record all there bets since we started ?

 

not many if any at all and i dont mean yer i can remember that one and that one oh yer and i backed that one i mean kept a proper record ?

 

You need to start doing it if you want to make this game pay its way .

 

 

I am pleased in some ways there. I backed £100 win Thoughtsofstardom in the first race but there where two previous Nap bet runners in that race so i compined them in referse Tricast for £10 cost £60

 

Sir Don

Egypian Lord

Thoughtsofstardon

 

So the win bet was lost but the Tricast came in and Paid £114.83 so that is £1148.30 £980 profit

 

And that ties in with keeping records of your bets without them i wouldnt have backed these in the Tricast

 

BTW Egyptian Lord is in on Monday at Southwell keep your pennies for him cos he wont get beat

 

Southwell is where he wins he has about 20lbs in hand of the Handicapper and will run up a sequence of wins there between now and March don't say you havn't been told

[L19red]

cheers bob, thats a great post. Its very interesting to learn a bit about how you pick them rather than just seeing the tips posted.

 

i know the basics of interprting a card and looking at a horses past form, but would love to know more about what a knowledgeable experienced punter looks for.

[bobhorse]

There are points that are nice to have on your side

 

There are points that are essential to have on you side

 

and there are Points that might lead to improvement

 

i will try to explain what i look for

 

Essential

 

Course

Ground

Handicap Mark / official rating

Draw in flat races

Proven ability level

 

Nice to have on your side

 

Horse Form

Trainer Form

Jockey Booking

Breeding

 

Points that may lead to improvements

Visor

blinkers

Cheek Pieces

Tongue Tie

Distance

 

Course is essential in that none are the same and you need to make a list of them and there features some are uphill some downhill some left handed some right handed some flat some undulating some tight and some galloping and is why you here the phrase horses for courses you should try to learn as many as you can best to keep a list

 

Ground Again this is vital horses come in all shapes and sizes some float over the ground and some hit the ground like a hammer if it is hard ground then some horses wont give everything as they will be feeling the effects of that ie like pain shooting through your leg you would slow down a bit like wise with soft ground some cant get there legs out of it and tire with the extra effort knowing the going is essential

 

Handicap Mark / Official Ratings It is important to look at a horses mark to see if it is likely to win if a horse is running in a 0 -70 handicap and won last time out and now races off a mark of say 69 if he wins this race he will go up again by 6lbs in the near future or will be reassessed for a new mark and that will mean he is no longer able to run in 0-70 handicaps and might be months until he falls back down to a mark which he could again take part in such races all the time the owner has to keep paying the bills for a horse that can’t win so I would say that it is unlikely that that horse can win this race the exception would be if the horse is much, much better than this grade and is making the best use of its opportunities in lower grades while it gains experience there is much more to it but that gives you and idea of something most punters never look at

 

Draw in flat races this is vital at some tracks take Chester if you are draw outside the first 6 stalls I wouldn’t bother with it and at some distances I would keep this down to the first three stalls other courses have a high bias some courses the bias is at certain distances due to the nature of the course ie start is close to a turn etc

 

Proven Ability in the Grade sometimes you will see horses running in races that have no chance what so ever just running to give the owners a free day out that is a simple one to spot I like to see a horse who I like for a grade 1 race to have had grade 1 winning or 2nd place form in a Grade one the best example I can give is last weeks Irish Champion Hurdle I liked the winner Sizing Europe but lack of Grade 1 winning form meant that I couldn’t back it and instead backed Hardy Eustace now even though I lost I wouldn’t change my approach the next time it runs it wont have that negative against it

Horse Form it is nice to have recent form to back up a horses well being but it isn’t essential other wise you would never have first time out winners but as a rule you want to know your horse has the form to a win the race and that form is there for you to see

 

Trainer Form this is again nice to have a stable that is in form banging in the winners but it isn’t the be all and end all like J J O’Neil he was in terrible form but he still managed to win with a horse in December when everything else was beaten but if you know a stable is out of form then leave it alone id rather miss a 5/1 winner than back 15 losers from 1 stable a trainer in form at the moment is

Miss V,Williams. Her runners this week have the following finishing positions 2431223746211P12 and her prices range from 12/1 9/2 11/10 4/1 for the winners and 25/1 16/1 8/1 twice 13/2 6/1 twice 5/1 twice with only 3 losing Bets from 16 there are others who are in good runs also D McCain is one that looks like he is about to start to hit the Winners Trail

 

Jockey Booking The thing to remember here is a Bad Jockey can win on a Good Horse but only a Good Jockey can win on a Bad One this is why AP McCoy is so well regarded the amount of winners he rides that only he would win on is spectacular likewise Bad Jockeys can get a horse beaten it is a good idea to make a list of all Jockeys who fall at the Last fence while contesting for the lead in a race to see if anything comes up as a pattern same as how jockeys perform for the horses stable look at the records you may have picked the correct horse in the race but he may be being prepared for something different the amount of Nicholls horses that win when Sam Thomas is replaced by Ruby Walsh is something to look out for as it seems he prepares them for Walsh to win on there are lots more

 

Breeding is important in trying to find a horses ideal trip you will see many 2 year olds on the flat finish down the field three times in races over 6f-7f and be put away and then come out as three jear olds and race over 1m4f and look like world beaters a master at this is M Johnson his record with 3 year old maidens over 1m2f -1m4f during Feb March April is second to none and you can back all these horses blind and make a profit

 

These are just skirting the subject but will give you a little of what to look for apart from 104352 in front of a horses name hope it helps if you want anymore info PM me and I will help where I can

[L19red]

thats great stuff, many thanks Bob.

 

some of that stuff like course/distance/going i understood, but the stuff on the handicap/official marks id never have figured out.

 

i know what you mean about mccoy. i went to cartmel in the summer a couple of years ago. he flew in by helicpter to a little country track in the back end of beyond, romped home on his first ride. Second race was neck and neck, he fell back a length as they turned for home but still produced it for the win on the line. then he got in his helicopter and was gone, two rides, two wins.

 

I learned a valuable lesson that day about why he's the champion jockey.

It's a bit of a family fun day at cartmel, but if the big boys turn up its because they can smell a winner.

[greenoak]

Sorry Bob I dont undersatke your staking system comment.

 

Do you suggest we back just the NAP or all the starred races.

 

I dont understand points won or the reverse forecast stuff. Dont see how you come up on these reverse bets when its multiple lines. If just 1 of the 3 horses is selected how are you winning. Too advanced for me.

 

Are you suggesting the same size bet on every starred race?

 

What % of our pot per race.

 

There were very few wins today and not many places either so I cannot see how we could come out on top today.

 

I am not having a go I want to learn but today was a stinker.