Coronavirus

[Section_31]

17 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

Tim Spector from the Zoe app. One of those days today, tomorrow they’ll be promising foreign holidays and tit wanks for all by May. 
 

 

Hmm, they seem to be managing it in new Zealand? 

[Moo]

3 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

Hmm, they seem to be managing it in new Zealand? 

Surely that's because they have a zero Covid strategy, which will never happen here.  If NZ decide to open their borders at some point they may need to revise their advice on gatherings, social distancing etc.

[3 Stacks]

43 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

Yeah, the fact it might offer reduced efficacy against the South African variant, not protect against moderate disease which it does with the original strain and they don’t know how effective it is against reducing severe illness for this variant is just negativity for no reason and hysterical. 

I was talking about the "Coronavirus will find ways to continue spread in vaccinated populations" part of it. I don't know how that should be a surprise to anyone. 

 

But yeah, if they don't know if the Oxford protects against severe illness from a particular variant, that's not great. But "we don't know" and not "it doesn't" isn't some crushing blow either. By the way, it says minimal protection for moderate disease, not no protection. 

[Sugar Ape]

8 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

Hmm, they seem to be managing it in new Zealand? 

What Moo said. They’re never going to go for the border closures New Zealand have done. I couldn’t even hazard a guess on when mass concerts and sporting events would be allowed again. Glastonbury not going ahead would indicate beyond this summer unless they come up with socially distances ones with less people there. 

[Sugar Ape]

4 minutes ago, 3 Stacks said:

I was talking about the "Coronavirus will find ways to continue spread in vaccinated populations" part of it. I don't know how that should be a surprise to anyone. 

 

But yeah, if they don't know if the Oxford protects against severe illness from a particular variant, that's not great. But "we don't know" and not "it doesn't" isn't some crushing blow either. By the way, it says minimal protection for moderate disease, not no protection. 

The expectation has always been, at least if you follow the scientists over here, that the vaccines would help reduce transmission and probably significantly which is a key part of the government strategy to open up. If they don’t offer the expected reduction in transmission against this new variant then it’s a blow, especially since the Oxford vaccine is the one we’ve got the most of. 
 

Of course we don’t know how widespread this variant is over here or if it’ll become the dominant strain but I don’t think it’s unduly negative to report on the above, added to the fact it’s currently uncertain what level of protection you’ll get from severe disease. You can see from the BBC article in my last reply to you they reported the good news that it seemed to reduce transmission against the current dominant variants over here, this is just the other side of the coin. 

[Megadrive Man]

46 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

Tim Spector from the Zoe app. One of those days today, tomorrow they’ll be promising foreign holidays and tit wanks for all by May. 
 

 

 

People just won't put up with that though. The masks and the handwashing are ok but people won't tolerate putting their lives on hold indefinitely.  

[3 Stacks]

17 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

The expectation has always been, at least if you follow the scientists over here, that the vaccines would help reduce transmission and probably significantly which is a key part of the government strategy to open up. If they don’t offer the expected reduction in transmission against this new variant then it’s a blow, especially since the Oxford vaccine is the one we’ve got the most of. 
 

Of course we don’t know how widespread this variant is over here or if it’ll become the dominant strain but I don’t think it’s unduly negative to report on the above, added to the fact it’s currently uncertain what level of protection you’ll get from severe disease. You can see from the BBC article in my last reply to you they reported the good news that it seemed to reduce transmission against the current dominant variants over here, this is just the other side of the coin. 

I don't get the first part. If the vaccines do as intended and stop severe disease, but there is still spread of mild disease, why couldn't you open up? I'm not sure what transmission has to do with that. If people are still getting Covid but not going to the hospital, why is that a problem?

 

The transmission part of it as I understand it, is meant to be a bonus. As in, it will likely lower transmission but it was never going to stop spread completely. If it was going to stop spread, it wouldn't go endemic, but Covid going endemic is the outcome pretty much every non quack scientist has been predicting since the start. 

[Davelfc]

1 hour ago, Sugar Ape said:

Tim Spector from the Zoe app. One of those days today, tomorrow they’ll be promising foreign holidays and tit wanks for all by May. 
 

 

The new normal sounds shit. 

 

 

 

 

[Colonel Bumcunt]

1 hour ago, Sugar Ape said:

Tim Spector from the Zoe app. One of those days today, tomorrow they’ll be promising foreign holidays and tit wanks for all by May. 
 

 

Stupid comments. 

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, 3 Stacks said:

I don't get the first part. If the vaccines do as intended and stop severe disease, but there is still spread of mild disease, why couldn't you open up? I'm not sure what transmission has to do with that. If people are still getting Covid but not going to the hospital, why is that a problem?

 

The transmission part of it as I understand it, is meant to be a bonus. As in, it will likely lower transmission but it was never going to stop spread completely. If it was going to stop spread, it wouldn't go endemic, but Covid going endemic is the outcome pretty much every non quack scientist has been predicting since the start. 

Chickenpox is accepted as an endemic as it has very mild symptoms, but can lead to shingles in adults. If an adult woman has never had chickenpox and is in proximity to an adult with shingles, this can potentially affect their ability to bear children. But as the vast majority of children do have chickenpox at some stage in their childhood, this is a risk that is easily worth taking.

 

Opening up when not everyone has been vaccinated to Covid would results similar to those already seen in the last ten months. Of course Covid will almost certainly be around for a long time to come but the risks are too high.

[Jairzinho]

20,000 at the Gabba for Australia v India a few weeks ago.

[Bruce Spanner]

Really interesting article/interview with Kate Bingham, who lead the vaccine task force.

 

Long, but worth a read in to how it all happened and how decisions were/are being made.

 

Johnson, as usual, comes out looking like an imposter, but then he his, so...

 

https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/02/07/news/kate_bingham_interview_vaccines_covid_astrazeneca_uk_coronavirus_johnson-286384093/

[3 Stacks]

3 minutes ago, Shooter in the Motor said:

Chickenpox is accepted as an endemic as it has very mild symptoms, but can lead to shingles in adults. If an adult woman has never had chickenpox and is in proximity to an adult with shingles, this can potentially affect their ability to bear children. But as the vast majority of children do have chickenpox at some stage in their childhood, this is a risk that is easily worth taking.

 

Opening up when not everyone has been vaccinated to Covid would results similar to those already seen in the last ten months. Of course Covid will almost certainly be around for a long time to come but the risks are too high.

What? I hate to break to you, but countries will open up way before everyone has been vaccinated. And by the way, not everyone will ever be vaccinated. As long as loads of people are being kept out of the hospital, life will resume. 

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, 3 Stacks said:

What? I hate to break to you, but countries will open up way before everyone has been vaccinated. And by the way, not everyone will ever be vaccinated. As long as loads of people are being kept out of the hospital, life will resume. 

Of course they will, but there will be a tipping point where it's seen as a reasonable risk that can be taken. Then it becomes a case of personal choice if a person wants to stop shielding/return to daily employment. The countries that have opened up without a concern are the countries that adopted a zero tolerance to allowing this virus in the country. The countries that didn't are now paying the price of not adopting that policy. They can't have it both ways.

 

I'm predicting the country will start to slowly open up in early April, once some schools have already gardually eased back with between June and August being full lifting.

[3 Stacks]

3 minutes ago, Shooter in the Motor said:

Of course they will, but there will be a tipping point where it's seen as a reasonable risk that can be taken. Then it becomes a case of personal choice if a person wants to stop shielding/return to daily employment. The countries that have opened up without a concern are the countries that adopted a zero tolerance to allowing this virus in the country. The countries that didn't are now paying the price of not adopting that policy. They can't have it both ways.

 

I'm predicting the country will start to slowly open up in early April, once some schools have already gardually eased back with between June and August being full lifting.

Sure, alright. What did this conversation have to do with my comment about mild and severe disease, again?

[Sugar Ape]

23 minutes ago, MegadriveMan said:

 

People just won't put up with that though. The masks and the handwashing are ok but people won't tolerate putting their lives on hold indefinitely.  

I think it depends on what the restrictions are and what the pay offs for following them are. If you can’t have mass sporting events, indoor concerts and weddings with over, I don’t know, 30/40 people in attendance but most other restrictions are lifted then I think most people will go along with it. For a while at least. 
 

21 minutes ago, 3 Stacks said:

I don't get the first part. If the vaccines do as intended and stop severe disease, but there is still spread of mild disease, why couldn't you open up? I'm not sure what transmission has to do with that. If people are still getting Covid but not going to the hospital, why is that a problem?

 

The transmission part of it as I understand it, is meant to be a bonus. As in, it will likely lower transmission but it was never going to stop spread completely. If it was going to stop spread, it wouldn't go endemic, but Covid going endemic is the outcome pretty much every non quack scientist has been predicting since the start. 

Because not everyone will take the vaccine, it might not be effective in protecting everyone and if we lift restrictions too soon - and let’s be honest they’ve done that at every stage in this country - transmission could jump massively before we’ve even offered the jab to a lot of people. That is the scenario with the vaccines we have now against the current strains. A strain that the main vaccine we use isn’t as effective against would potentially make things worse. 
 

Some SAGE groups have done different models on this recently. I’ll post a link to an article but you can look up the specific reports if you wish. I’m about to go for a shit then get a pint ready for the match so I’m going to leave the Covid talk for now. 
 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/easing-covid-lockdown-early-could-23454218.amp

 

Easing Covid lockdown too early could spark devastating fourth wave, SAGE experts warn

 

Government scientific advisors have cautioned against lifting lockdown too quickly over the summer as it could lead to a further 130,000 Covid-19 deaths by June 2022.

 

Scientists told the government's chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty that the vaccine rollout could be "insufficient" to prevent another outbreak.

 

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) modelling subgroup SPI-M produced two papers on January 14 which were discussed during a meeting attended by both Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance, the Daily Mail reports.

 

One paper, by the team at the University of Warwick, looks into the repercussions of easing lockdown from the end of February to the start of September.

 

It considers how the Oxford/AstraZeneca and the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine could cut transmission by 60 per cent.

 

But the scientists cautioned the new Covid mutant - said to be up to 70 per cent more transmittable - mean the jabs could be insufficient to prevent another wave of infections.

 

"This means that the proportion of individuals that do not accept the vaccine together with the proportion for whom it is ineffective in protecting, may still account for significant further severe disease even after the programme is completed," the group said.

 

"We see that even with the highest possible uptake and fastest vaccination programme, full relaxation by the time schools return in September would still result in significant further disease."

 

The scientists, however, said reverting to the same summer lockdown rules implemented last year where up to six people could meet in a single household would result in "only very minimal further disease burden".

 

And they add: "This suggests that a return to schooling as normal in the next academic year is quite achievable."

 

The second paper, by Professor Neil Ferguson’s team at Imperial College London, considered a phased lifting of lockdown between March and July.

 

It said bringing the vaccine rollout to "at least" 3million doses a week is "critical to avoid exceeding national hospital capacity after the current wave".

 

But the report claims that even at that rate there could be anywhere between 103,200 and 167,600 deaths between now and June 2022, meaning "a more cautious approach to gradually lifting (lockdown measures) may need to be considered than the ones modelled in this report".

[3 Stacks]

5 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

 

Because not everyone will take the vaccine, it might not be effective in protecting everyone and if we lift restrictions too soon - and let’s be honest they’ve done that at every stage in this country - transmission could jump massively before we’ve even offered the jab to a lot of people. That is the scenario with the vaccines we have now against the current strains. A strain that the main vaccine we use isn’t as effective against would potentially make things worse. 
 

Some SAGE groups have done different models on this recently. I’ll post a link to an article but you can look up the specific reports if you wish. I’m about to go for a shit then get a pint ready for the match so I’m going to leave the Covid talk for now. 
 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/easing-covid-lockdown-early-could-23454218.amp

 

Easing Covid lockdown too early could spark devastating fourth wave, SAGE experts warn

 

Government scientific advisors have cautioned against lifting lockdown too quickly over the summer as it could lead to a further 130,000 Covid-19 deaths by June 2022.

 

Scientists told the government's chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty that the vaccine rollout could be "insufficient" to prevent another outbreak.

 

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) modelling subgroup SPI-M produced two papers on January 14 which were discussed during a meeting attended by both Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance, the Daily Mail reports.

 

One paper, by the team at the University of Warwick, looks into the repercussions of easing lockdown from the end of February to the start of September.

 

It considers how the Oxford/AstraZeneca and the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine could cut transmission by 60 per cent.

 

But the scientists cautioned the new Covid mutant - said to be up to 70 per cent more transmittable - mean the jabs could be insufficient to prevent another wave of infections.

 

"This means that the proportion of individuals that do not accept the vaccine together with the proportion for whom it is ineffective in protecting, may still account for significant further severe disease even after the programme is completed," the group said.

 

"We see that even with the highest possible uptake and fastest vaccination programme, full relaxation by the time schools return in September would still result in significant further disease."

 

The scientists, however, said reverting to the same summer lockdown rules implemented last year where up to six people could meet in a single household would result in "only very minimal further disease burden".

 

And they add: "This suggests that a return to schooling as normal in the next academic year is quite achievable."

 

The second paper, by Professor Neil Ferguson’s team at Imperial College London, considered a phased lifting of lockdown between March and July.

 

It said bringing the vaccine rollout to "at least" 3million doses a week is "critical to avoid exceeding national hospital capacity after the current wave".

 

But the report claims that even at that rate there could be anywhere between 103,200 and 167,600 deaths between now and June 2022, meaning "a more cautious approach to gradually lifting (lockdown measures) may need to be considered than the ones modelled in this report".

For sure, I'm not talking about lifting restrictions early. I'm just puzzled as to what could stop countries from opening in the event that we have tangible, real proof the vaccines really decrease hospitalizations, even if people are still getting Covid. 

[Guest]

Just now, 3 Stacks said:

Sure, alright. What did this conversation have to do with my comment about mild and severe disease, again?

Chickenpox is a mild disease that is endemic. No country needed to lock down to prevent it from spreading, even though it is highly infectious. HIV is a severe disease that is not as infectious and is endemic. Each of these infections ticks only one of the severe disease/highly infectious boxes, therefore allowing them to turn endemic is a calculated risk to ensure safety to the general population. Covid is highly infectious and has severe symptoms. It ticks both boxes, as did Polio. Polio thankfully never became endemic as a vaccine was produced to halt it's spread. If a new variant of polio became a problem, I'm pretty sure it would have to be dealt with in a similar way to Covid.

[3 Stacks]

9 minutes ago, Shooter in the Motor said:

Chickenpox is a mild disease that is endemic. No country needed to lock down to prevent it from spreading, even though it is highly infectious. HIV is a severe disease that is not as infectious and is endemic. Each of these infections ticks only one of the severe disease/highly infectious boxes, therefore allowing them to turn endemic is a calculated risk to ensure safety to the general population. Covid is highly infectious and has severe symptoms. It ticks both boxes, as did Polio. Polio thankfully never became endemic as a vaccine was produced to halt it's spread. If a new variant of polio became a problem, I'm pretty sure it would have to be dealt with in a similar way to Covid.

I don't know what this has to do with anything. If Covid becomes endemic, which it very likely will, because we sure as hell don't look like we'll eradicate it, that's fine as long as vaccines are continually updated and protect us from severe disease. That's the bottom line. If vaccines don't stop people from getting Covid completely, but renders it mild in most people, who gives a fuck. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, 3 Stacks said:

I don't know what this has to do with anything. If Covid becomes endemic, which it very likely will, because we sure as hell don't look like we'll eradicate it, that's fine as long as vaccines are continually updated and protect us from severe disease. That's the bottom line. If vaccines don't stop people from getting Covid completely, but renders it mild in most people, who gives a fuck. 

That is the aim. Looks to me like you're just looking to be contrary.

[Sugar Ape]

7 minutes ago, 3 Stacks said:

For sure, I'm not talking about lifting restrictions early. I'm just puzzled as to what could stop countries from opening in the event that we have tangible, real proof the vaccines really decrease hospitalizations, even if people are still getting Covid. 

Long term that’s the hope and expectation (mutations aside) I’m more talking about this year. I guess SAGE are thinking even with a lower transmission and fatality rate due to the vaccine if a lot more people get infected because we’ve lifted too many of the restrictions that we’ve currently got then that could deliver pretty bad results even with a vaccine. It’s going to come down to how many people will still be susceptible to serious illness and we don’t know that yet with the new variants and what the uptake of the vaccine will be.
 

Looking outside the UK for a moment, France for example looks like it’s got a real problem with only 46% of people saying they’d have a vaccine, though that percentage hopefully will keep rising. 
 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2021/01/22/europe-becoming-more-pro-vaccine

 

I’m hopeful that with any seasonality with the summer combined with the vaccine that things will get rapidly better over the coming months (again, mutations aside) but I think it’s too early to know exactly how it’ll pan out yet. 

[3 Stacks]

1 minute ago, Shooter in the Motor said:

That is the aim. Looks to me like you're just looking to be contrary.

There's nothing contrary about what I've written. I just wondered why people would be surprised that vaccines may not totally stop transmission. That was a valid question, given respiratory illnesses like Covid are almost impossible to completely stop from spreading. If vaccines could have achieved that, that really would have been a miracle. 

 

And listen, with all due respect, the vast, vast majority of your posts in this thread have been irrelevant or nonsense. I don't really want to discuss this topic with you anymore, I really don't. Your replying to posts of mine now that don't clearly address my point and I don't know what you're even really saying.  

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, 3 Stacks said:

There's nothing contrary about what I've written. I just wondered why people would be surprised that vaccines may not totally stop transmission. That was a valid question, given respiratory illnesses like Covid are almost impossible to completely stop from spreading. If vaccines could have achieved that, that really would have been a miracle. 

 

And listen, with all due respect, the vast, vast majority of your posts in this thread have been irrelevant or nonsense. I don't really want to discuss this topic with you anymore, I really don't. Your replying to posts of mine now that don't clearly address my point and I don't know what you're even really saying.  

That's absolutely fine by me, I feel exactly the same way. 

[Bjornebye]

Did Stronz get back to your question Rapey? 
 

Oh. Knew it. 

[Guest]

Turns out my parent's primary carer experienced symptoms earlier this week and now had a positive test result. Now my younger sister who lives close to my parents is a secondary carer, she's now tested positive with similar symptoms and my ma has symptoms but test result isn't back yet. My pa has multiple sclerosis and COPD with low immune system so he'd be even more at risk. Just have to wait and see how things develop. Cold like symptoms with cough, hopefully it doesn't get any worse.