If there are no other incoming transfers, how would you deem our summer dealings?

[Tyler Durden]

It all just seems the same as last year really, Rodgers talking about signings, us trying to stave off having our best players taken off us, shifting deadwood out to be replaced with youth or nothing at all in some cases and people on here who will still be pleading for patience with 2 hours until the window closes.

 

I don't buy all the bollocks about it being difficult to sign decent players without Europe and I don't buy that the 'right' players are not available so we should therefore wait until they are because we seen the effects of that last summer selling Carroll and not being willing to secure a replacement.

 

We've had all fucking season to prepare for this window with our new scouting network and they should have a legion of options available to the manager not just shrug their shoulders when we get knocked back by a couple of players (debatable whether we were ever really in for them).

 

There is quite a bit of indifference towards FSG but they could quite easily sort that by pulling their fucking thumb out their collective arses and getting the players needed signed up, that is if we don't want to have every window from now on having to try and cling on to our best players.

[Tyler Durden]

Transfer dealings aren't the only consideration in a global business like Liverpool's? They've not earned any profit from Liverpool. Not a penny.

 

Who fucking does earn a profit from owning a football club??? There are infinite more investments that will earn you money before a football club so if that's what they are interested in then they're at the wrong table.

[Guest Numero Veinticinco]

Who fucking does earn a profit from owning a football club??? There are infinite more investments that will earn you money before a football club so if that's what they are interested in then they're at the wrong table.

 

Yeah, that's my point. The way they'll earn money back on their investment is by returning us to the CL, building a stadium, raising revenues and either accepting a moderate return per year or selling. I'd suggest the latter.

[Baltar]

Our current squad, assuming Suarez is off, is not good enough to finish in the top 6. We need to make a few more top class signings to challenge for the top 4 so if we have finished our transfer dealings for the summer we are going to be in trouble if we harbour ambitions of a top 4 or even a top 6 finish.

[RobbieOR]

We obviously are going to do more business.

 

Have patience.

[Red Phoenix]

I don't buy all the bollocks about it being difficult to sign decent players without Europe and I don't buy that the 'right' players are not available so we should therefore wait until they are because we seen the effects of that last summer selling Carroll and not being willing to secure a replacement.

 

We've had all fucking season to prepare for this window with our new scouting network and they should have a legion of options available to the manager not just shrug their shoulders when we get knocked back by a couple of players (debatable whether we were ever really in for them).

 

There is quite a bit of indifference towards FSG but they could quite easily sort that by pulling their fucking thumb out their collective arses and getting the players needed signed up, that is if we don't want to have every window from now on having to try and cling on to our best players.

 

Agreed with this really.

[WhiskeyJar]

We obviously are going to do more business.

 

Have patience.

 

All rumours, from Micky, to Papadopoulos, to Cissoko, to Costa and now Willian.

 

Wish I had your confidence.

[dennis tooth]

Transfer dealings aren't the only consideration in a global business like Liverpool's? They've not earned any profit from Liverpool. Not a penny.

 

They deal in dollars.

 

How do you know they have not made a profit?

 

Can you back this claim up?

 

I see it as about level, minus what they paid for the club which was when it was scandalously overvalued and would make a profit of about a 3rd of what they paid for the club if they were to sell tomorrow. More if they can find a crazy rich fool like Abramovich or Mansour, they are out there I might add.

[TheHowieLama]

Den - that is a little scattered. Certainly you mean undervalued. So that said, you think it's a push for them as of today minus acquisition and they could now sell to a crazy rich fool (who would have become interested in the club, or crazy/rich over the last 30 months) for 33% over acquisition?

[TSC]

Not quite panic time, but not a kick in the jaxi off it. Show me any red at the end of last season who'd have been happy with a small profit or at best break even on summer transfer activity just before 1st game of the season and I'll show you a liar.

[King Emlyn]

Not quite panic time, but not a kick in the jaxi off it. Show me any red at the end of last season who'd have been happy with a small profit or at best break even on summer transfer activity just before 1st game of the season and I'll show you a liar.

I agree, given the chasm we have to bridge I cannot believe we are starting the season with so little improvement.

[SCOUSE TAPAS]

If Suarez stays then its more than likely for one more season. This could be the last decent chance of getting fourth for a few seasons yet. So they need to get another couple of quality players in and really go for it.

It makes no sense in keeping Suarez if they don't.

Ir s getting harder and harder each season to get top players in as they wont join and we have been lucky in getting a couple of really decent younger players in.

I just think its shit or bust this season if Luis stays.

[boomer39]

Our current squad, assuming Suarez is off, is not good enough to finish in the top 6. We need to make a few more top class signings to challenge for the top 4 so if we have finished our transfer dealings for the summer we are going to be in trouble if we harbour ambitions of a top 4 or even a top 6 finish.

get lost.....defeatist arsehole... the bitters better than us? etc, etc......

[SCOUSE TAPAS]

Not sure if this has been posted anywhere on site yet.

“Bottoms in the investment world don’t end with four-year lows, they end with 10 or 15-year lows.”

- Jim Rogers

Albeit Jim Rodger’s statement is more applicable to financial stock markets, investments, returns and sustenance, his underlying philosophy remains unquestioned. Bottom-line results do matter. I’m not being myopic – it’s not about Liverpool being out of the Champions’ League for 4 years but about the fact that Liverpool have not won the elusive English Premier league for 23 years.

If you look around, this summer has seen a sea of changes in the upper half of the Premier League – Sir Alex retiring, Mourinho back at Chelsea, Pellegrini at City, Wenger spending(!), and Spurs possibly losing Bale for a ridiculous fee. Among these, Liverpool fans perhaps have been through the most emotional toil they have endured in recent years. With over 700 appearances under his belt (or cleats), this summer saw Jamie Carragher hanging up his boots – a Liverpool legend and one of finest example of a one club man in world football. Pepe Reina also ended his 7 year association with the club. Liverpool fans & Reina himself would have liked it if the departure was much more amicable.

If that wasn’t enough, Luis Suarez’s ongoing ramblings have tested Liverpool fan’s steadfast support and patience past a tolerable limit. Subsequently, it has done wonders for his image in the eyes of Arsenal fans – He is no longer a racist, egoistic man who has no character and shame. The same set who previously claimed that Suarez should no longer play football as it’s completely unacceptable and out of character for anyone to behave like this. How could he!

Suddenly, Luis is Arsenal’s best hope of being title contenders and he is no longer a child only a mother could love. I could go on with this but that would miss the point of this article. The Luis Suarez saga however, is a key note in the entire plot. Liverpool’s stance on Luis – particularly the way Rodgers has handled the situation is commendable and deserves appreciation.

Liverpool in the transfer market

In November last year, Liverpool formed a transfer committee – not something that we hear everyday or at every club. The committee encompasses Dave Fallows (Head of recruitment), Barry Hunter (Chief scout), Michael Edwards (Head of Performance & Analysis), Ian Ayre (Managing Director) and finally first team manager Brendan Rodgers.

I had hinted back in May that I could see Pepe Reina leaving the club which people refused to believe. It wasn’t an ITKish hit-and-a-miss. The conclusion was drawn from how Liverpool operated in the previous window and some simple analytics. Although I would have liked it if Pepe would have continued at the club, the move is a sign of a wave of changes to come.

Here is a quick look at Liverpool’s goalkeeper’s department and their wage structure:

<TABLE class=" aligncenter" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=294 border=0><COLGROUP><COL width=106><COL width=99><COL width=89></COLGROUP><TBODY><TR><TD height=20 width=106>Player</TD><TD width=99>Weekly Wages</TD><TD width=89>Yearly Wages</TD></TR><TR><TD height=20>Danny Ward</TD><TD align=right>£6,535.94</TD><TD align=right>£339,868.99</TD></TR><TR><TD height=20>Brad Jones</TD><TD align=right>£10,644.53</TD><TD align=right>£553,515.71</TD></TR><TR><TD height=20>Simon Mignolet</TD><TD align=right>£45,000.00</TD><TD align=right>£2,340,000.00</TD></TR><TR><TD height=20>Pepe Reina</TD><TD align=right>£110,000.00</TD><TD align=right>£5,720,000.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

The obvious opinion surfaces – you don’t keep a £110k/week keeper on the bench. However, it was always in Liverpool’s interest to have Simon Mignolet as a replacement, not as competition to Reina. Here are some Mignolet statistics.

Image Credit: Bass Tuned to Red @BassTunedtoRed

The Belgian shot stopper has made more saves than Pepe in the last 2 consecutive years, has a higher save percentage than him and played for Sunderland, who give him a weaker defensive cover than Reina gets at Liverpool. Take that into perspective besides the fact that getting Reina off the wage bill saves Liverpool £5.7m annually. Even after inculcating Mignolet into the wage bill, Liverpool save £2.4m annually.

Side note: On a detailed Reina vs Mignolet comparison, I recommend you read @BassTunedToRed’s piece here

Moving ahead, when you take a quick look at the defender wage structure, things start getting interesting.

A key point which is missing here is Jamie Carragher. Carra retired in the summer and along with him, wages of £120k/week. That is approximately £6.25m per year – not a small amount! Also, here is why I feel Martin Skrtel is about to be offloaded – he’s on £70k/week wages for the season and has made only 23 starts last season. You also can’t help but feel that Brendan doesn’t think Skrtel fits into his system by the bit-part role that he played last season. I’m not questioning his quality – I’m sure Martin deserves every bit of the £70k/week wages he earns. However, as per his performance evaluation, he also deserves more game time. Skrtel won’t be of concern unless Liverpool are looking to replace him with *cough*Papa*cough*

I’m sure you must have noticed by now – you’ve guessed it right. If you apply the same principles, I can’t see Glen Johnson staying at Liverpool beyond this transfer window. I may be wrong of course but his wages of £100k/week principally are not proportional to the value he provides to the team at right-back.

Here are how our midfielders earn:

Captain Fantastic, Stevie G miscues the entire graph like an outlier. Since he is indispensable to the club, it is best to remove him for the purpose of simplicity in analysis.

Here is how the new chart reflects data. *ducks from sight*

Lads,

There you have it! You’re not having an illusion. Stewart Downing is our highest earning midfielder, only second to Gerrard. Although I have said in the past that I appreciate the way Downing has turned around his campaign magnificently after getting a kick up the backside from Brendan (and he did!); and that he deserves another shot. I still maintain he is good enough to be a squad player but he simply can’t be squad at that £80k! Bushwa! (Thanks Hodgson! edit* -> omg Kenny!)

Oh, and look Jay Spearing is on an absurd contract!

Jury: I can’t see him in a red jersey come September.

For those who feel that at a stretch, it can be argued that Jordan Henderson is a bit on the higher side of the curve considering his young age – his contribution to the team is something that can’t be disregarded. Here is a neutral comparison of Wilshere, Cleverley & Henderson. I’m not suggesting in any way that he is as good as those two, but his contribution as a team player is immense and his value to the team should not be undermined.

Finally, Luis Suarez.

Liverpool currently hold a strong stance with respect to Luis Suarez. Arsenal’s attempt of £40m+£1 was rejected. Suarez does not have a release clause embedded in his contract and in most likelihood, Liverpool will reject a £42.5m bid too. Brendan has maintained that Suarez belongs to the “top bracket of players”, “Liverpool do not have to sell him”, “looking to build rather than break” and “a fee in the region £55m and we’ll consider”.

As a Liverpool fan, and a football fan, I would like to see Brendan Rodgers keep hold of him and get another season out of Suarez. Contrary to what most say, Liverpool needs Luis Suarez this season. Suarez is one of the best there is out there at the moment and without Champions’ League football to lure excellent players, Liverpool have very little chance to attract players of the same calibre (also with the new strategic spending in place). If Liverpool must sell Suarez, they should not negotiate anything below £55m, especially if they are selling to a direct rival for 4th place. I’ll voice a common opinion among Liverpool fans – I’d rather see Suarez leave for Madrid for £40m than to Arsenal for £55m. If Arsenal do put in an offer in that region, I believe Liverpool should sell him even if it is Arsenal – under the obvious condition that we smartly reinvest in 2-3 quality players. However, I do not think Wenger will put in such an offer. (Their record signing is Andrei Arshavin, £15m. They DO have the money to spend this season – however, Wenger will never overpay for a player if he feels the value isn’t proporional to returns)

New players – Finding Hidden Gems

Luis Alberto was bought in for £7m, Iago Aspas for £7m, Simon Mignolet for £9m and Kolo Touré for free. Liverpool have also done a splendid job of getting Andy Carroll off the wage bill plus selling him for £17.8m. We can’t comment anything with respect to how Liverpool’s summer signings will perform but they all mirror a strategic thought process. Also keep an eye on the wages the new players are earning – if they don’t perform, they are offloaded. If they do, apart from the obvious that their transfer value rises – a new contract (after a couple of years) which is still in the meager £60-£70k range. It’s a win-win situation!

<TABLE class=" aligncenter" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=309 border=0><COLGROUP><COL width=121><COL width=89><COL width=99></COLGROUP><TBODY><TR><TD height=20 width=121>Player</TD><TD width=89>Yearly Wages</TD><TD width=99>Weekly Wages</TD></TR><TR><TD height=20>Kolo Touré</TD><TD align=right>£3,900,000.00</TD><TD align=right>£75,000.00</TD></TR><TR><TD height=20>Luis Alberto</TD><TD align=right>unknown</TD><TD align=right>unknown</TD></TR><TR><TD height=20>Iago Aspas</TD><TD align=right>£1,379,478.40</TD><TD align=right>£26,528.43</TD></TR><TR><TD height=20>Simon Mignolet</TD><TD align=right>£2,340,000.00</TD><TD align=right>£45,000.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Liverpool’s two signings which have been the new Transfer Committee’s work – Phillepe Coutinho (£8m) and Daniel Sturridge (£12m) have been phenomenal to say the least. Their success in the January window was a pilot test for a template they could implement in the summer. These two have been exemplary and fit well into Brendan’s philosophy of playing. Liverpool are looking for value in the transfer market rather than just getting the best out there.

Fans are resistant to change which is quite natural considering their thorough knowledge and the longevity of their association with the game. They have seen a lot things gone wrong in the past and their apprehension towards a new direction is understandable. Liverpool are however competing in a league which boasts of Man City, Chelsea and Man United – their strength in spending, in addition to their presence in the European Cup gives them an edge over any prime target Liverpool set an eye on.

There have been many fans berating FSG on public forums claiming how Liverpool are not being ambitious. Most of the fans have been calling for Marquee signings and claiming FSG are simply asset stripping. I can assure you they are not. If you want quick returns, a football club is the worst investment you could ever make. Liverpool also don’t have a bottomless pit to spend from and if Liverpool play the game according to their rivals, they are bound to lose. Considering the financial wealth of other clubs, Liverpool will only fail if they work in the traditional way. Let me put it this way, the probability of Liverpool succeeding is much higher if they are prudent in their transfer dealings rather than spending a bomb on a few players and hoping they would fare well. This is Liverpool’s best chance to break into the top four after which Liverpool can spend heavily,

The method of spending to win the league with exponentially increasing wage budgets would be the work of Dinosaurs as John Henry would attest. However, if this strategic spending does work, it won’t be long before John Henry with Liverpool, successfully replicates a feat similar to ending the curse of the Bambino.

Football Paradise | Kaleidoscope | Liverpool's Transfer window - A play in strategy

[BCM]

I dont agree with that at all.

Without significant investment in first team calibre players we have no chance of breaking into the top 4, last season we struggled to get anywhere near those places.

And that was in a year were we didnt have any real big injuries to key players. The only time we lost someone was Suarez and even that was right at the end when we had nothing to play for.

[BCM]

He is right about them stripping the top earners out of the squad though, thats been happening for a while.

[cuppatea]

Jesus Christ, who the fuck decided Jay Spearing was worth £55k a week?! Glen Johnson on £100k a week is fucking mental as well!

[Ranxerox]

However, if this strategic spending does work, it won’t be long before John Henry with Liverpool, successfully replicates a feat similar to ending the curse of the Bambino

 

When they ended the curse the Red Sox were in the top 3 in wage spending. This year once again the Red Sox are 3rd in wages after the Dodgers and Yankees. FSG does not use this "value" approach when it comes to Henry's true passion (the Red Sox).

[Anubis]

That article boils down to the last line. IF it works. Of course IF it doesn't, and Arsenal suggests it doesn't, then all you do is keep yourself in a CL place for a while, whilst your squad slowly degrades over time. And Arsenal are in real danger of dropping out of the top four, hence their desperation to land Suarez.