Russia v Ukraine

[Bruce Spanner]

24 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

So what you are saying is they are employed in Ukraine as a volunteer force which costs Russia nothing?

 

No, they don't cost Russia based on what they are bringing in.

 

The have mines/interests in Sudan, Chad, C.A.R, Libya, Madagasca, Mozambique and probably others where they are extracting minerals for sale, at an agreed reduced price, on an international black market, mainly through the UAE and Saudi. From there they are fenced and made available on the international market. This brings in many, many billions and avoids sanctions, whilst building relationships with the international rogues gallery.

 

The work they do for governmnets there, and elsewhere, also gives Russia rights/concessions in both military and influence in the countries which are otherwise non existent. They recently signed a deal for a Russian navel base in Sudan which would have given Russia a key strategic position to further exploit the area, this is one of many such agreements in the area.

 

Russia has been at this for ages, but Wagner are able to rachet this up at speed as the give Putin deniable plausability when it comes to international condemnation.

 

All Russia does on the surface is sub-let its training and transportation infrastructure to Wagner and prima facia it looks 'legit' to international prying eyes.

 

Obvioulsy, they are one and the same, any fool can see that, but ambitions will be the undoing of any man...

 

EDIT: One of the key cognitive dissonance areas is uranium extraction in Chad. Wagner 'facilitate' the extraction and transortation, usually through Russian ships/planes. This is illegal. But once it is an offical Russian product, which it becomes when transfered from Wagner to Russia, or when fenced somewhere in the ME for a premium, they sell this extracted uranium to the US at a premium. Uranium, for reason one can only guess at, is one Russian asset that isn't subject to international sanctions.

 

 

[SasaS]

Well, neither is gas nor crude oil (price cap of 10 dollars under the market price market notwithstanding).

And porn is still going strong, I am told.

[TheHowieLama]

 

[Ne Moe Imya]

If Lukashenko dies, that's really, really bad timing for Putin.

 

It may sound crazy, but the range of possible outcomes resulting from that go from "basically nothing, Putin replaces him with another strongman" to "it turns into a Berlin Wall moment and ends up being the straw that breaks the camel's back with Putin's whole regime."

 

Seriously, the last election in Belarus was such a poorly managed sham that half the country protested vehemently. It was only by extremely oppressive crackdowns and Russian support that Lukashenko barely managed to keep hold of the country. One can easily imagine a scenario where Belarusians demand new elections if he's dead, Putin doesn't have the bandwidth or military capacity to quell the budding protest movement and from there things can spiral out of control for him pretty quickly.

 

If Belarus were to see a successful protest movement leading to some increase in democracy (or any democracy at all), the rest of the so-called "Russian sphere of influence" (i.e. the former USSR countries) will see that as a massive signal. At that points all bets are off in terms of which countries start to realise they can take advantage of the situation to reduce their dependency on Russia. Georgia could rise up and throw Ivanishvili and Georgian Dream out, or Kazakhstan might move to distance themselves more from Russia, or maybe Moldova finally decides Russia's not a threat and moves against Transnistria.

Or none of that could happen, Putin could find enough FSB not already busy in Ukraine to send to Belarus, squelch whatever's happening there before it starts, and find another toady to put in Lukashenko's place. But it's definitely a potential black swan event if he dies, especially if it happens while he's in Moscow if there is any suspicion that the Kremlin did it.

[SasaS]

 

[SasaS]

And BTW, I don't get the poisoning rumours, why would Russia poison Lukashenko, to create a leadership crisis in a country where they fully control its leadership at the moment?

 

The problem with other Russian allies, dependencies, clients etc is that there are also strong economic ties, Moldova is apparently totally reliant on Russian energy and so is probably Belarus.

 

For example, one of the reasons, if not the main reason for Janukovich's turnaround in 2013 when he decided not to sign the stabilization agreement with the EU, as the first step in the accession process and go with Russia instead (which was the cause of the Maidan protests which eventually toppled him, or "the coup" as Russia apologists would call it) was that Ukraine would have suffered enormous economic damage in the short term (the agreement with the EU would make the customs union with Russia, which was strongly pushing for it at the time impossible), and the EU was not prepared to make it up for them. Russia was already exerting strong economic pressure, it has introduced new customs regime for the exports from the eastern Ukraine which was totally dependent on trade with Russia, and there is always gas, sold to friendly countries at a lower price. Serbia for example, went absolutely mad some months ago when the EU demanded they stop importing and reselling Russian oil (don't remember if it was crude or derivatives), because they were getting it at a considerable discount and then making sizeable profits on reselling.

 

You always try to follow the money, why was Chechnya so rebellious for decades and now thousands of them volunteer to fight for Russians? Because Kadyrov controls all the money which has been pouring in from Moscow for construction and other projects (he allegedly earned a PhD in economics by writing a thesis on financial management of big reconstruction projects).

[TheHowieLama]

29 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

 

Alexander Lukashenko, the self-proclaimed president of the Republic of Belarus, said on Tuesday, 23 May that ill health was the reason for his absence from public life.

Source: BelTA, a Belarusian news outlet, citing Lukashenko during a government meeting on 23 May

Details: The Belarusian dictator said discussions about his health were "just idle speculation on messaging apps and Telegram channels".

"They said it was an adenovirus or something? An adenovirus. That’s nothing… But because I didn’t have an opportunity to get treatment… it all built up. But I’m not going to die yet, friends. You’re going to have to put up with me for a very long time," Lukashenko added.

 

He did not say exactly what his illness was; adenoviruses can cause a wide range of illnesses, from acute respiratory diseases to potentially lethal diseases for people with weak immune systems.

 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

MPs vote in support of recognising the Soviet-era Ukrainian famine as an act of genocide.

https://www.itv.com/news/2023-05-25/mps-vote-to-recognise-holodomor-famine-as-genocide-against-ukrainians

 

[SasaS]

Oryx is at 1,999 lost Russian tanks at the moment. I think Russia had over 3,000 active MBTs prior to invasion.

 

If we add armoured and infantry fighting vehicles (AFVs and IFVs) and armoured personnel carriers (APCs), you get the total of 5,536 visually confirmed lost peaces of armour. So it would be safe to say Russia lost at least 6,000 to 6,500 pieces of armour in total, which would be the level of Red Army losses at Kursk.  

 

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

[Section_31]

Surprised the CIA haven't been sowing any ballyhoo in the Islamic southern flank of Russia to be honest. Neil Melloravich must be sensing weakness at the very least. 

[TheHowieLama]

 

[halewood pete]

23 hours ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

MPs vote in support of recognising the Soviet-era Ukrainian famine as an act of genocide.

https://www.itv.com/news/2023-05-25/mps-vote-to-recognise-holodomor-famine-as-genocide-against-ukrainians

 

Shame there were not a few more bums on those green seats to hear this

[Kevin D]

Putin must be stopped:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/29/suspected-russia-trained-spy-whale-reappears-off-swedens-coast
 

A beluga whale that turned up in Norway wearing a harness in 2019, prompting speculation it was a spy trained by the Russian navy, has reappeared off Sweden’s coast.

 

First discovered in Norway’s far northern region of Finnmark, the whale spent more than three years slowly moving down the top half of the Norwegian coastline, before suddenly speeding up in recent months to cover the second half and move on to Sweden.

 

On Sunday, he was observed in Hunnebostrand, off Sweden’s south-western coast.

 

“We don’t know why he has sped up so fast right now,” said Sebastian Strand, a marine biologist with the OneWhale organisation, adding that it was particularly puzzling because the whale was moving “very quickly away from his natural environment”.

 

“It could be hormones driving him to find a mate. Or it could be loneliness, as belugas are a very social species – it could be that he’s searching for other beluga whales.”

Strand said the whale, believed to be 13-14 years old, is “at an age where his hormones are very high”.

 

The closest population of belugas is located in the Svalbard archipelago, which lies midway between the northern coast of Norway and the north pole.

 

The whale is not believed to have seen a single other beluga since arriving in Norway in April 2019.

 

Norwegians nicknamed him Hvaldimir – a pun on whale in Norwegian, hval, and a nod to its alleged association with Russia.

When the whale first appeared in the Norwegian Arctic, marine biologists from the Norwegian directorate of fisheries removed a human-made harness from him.

 

The harness had a mount suited for an action camera and the words Equipment St Petersburgprinted on the plastic clasps.

 

Directorate officials said Hvaldimir may have escaped an enclosure, and may have been trained by the Russian navy, as he appeared to be accustomed to humans.

 

Moscow never issued any official reaction to Norwegian speculation he could be a “Russian spy”.

 

The Barents Sea is a strategic geopolitical area where western and Russian submarine movements are monitored.

 

It is also the gateway to the Northern Sea Route, which shortens maritime journeys between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

Strand said the whale’s health “seemed to be very good” in recent years, and it had been foraging wild fish under Norway’s salmon farms.

 

But his organisation was concerned about Hvaldimir’s ability to find food in Sweden, and has already observed some weight loss.

 

Beluga whales, which can reach a size of about six metres (20ft) and live to between 40 and 60 years, generally inhabit the icy waters around Greenland, northern Norway and Russia.

 

[Bobby Hundreds]

My mind is blown by Russia/Putins reaction to being attacked by Ukraine drones. Like its totally uncalled for an attack out of the blue.

[SasaS]

Mediazona updated publicly available confirmed Russian casualties, new confirmed 1,184 names in 14 days show attrition rate is still fairly high, without big changes along the frontline. New total is now 24,470 KIA in Ukraine.

 

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

[SasaS]

Here we go. It has started.

 

 

 

[M_B]

Predictably, the Russians blew the dam. They must be panicing. 

[TheSire]

11 hours ago, M_B said:

Predictably, the Russians blew the dam. They must be panicing. 

Shithouse scruffs.

[Section_31]

The fuck?

 

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner group of mercenaries has captured a Russian commander, as the notorious leader further escalates his feud with the regular army.

In a video posted on Prigozhin’s social media channels, Lt Col Roman Venevitin, the commander of Russia’s 72nd Brigade, tells an interrogator that, while drunk, he had ordered his troops to fire on a Wagner convoy.

[polymerpunkah]

[ZonkoVille77]

Too lazy to go back through the thread to point out those that laughed off the suggestion it was anyone other than Russians.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/

[DJLJ]

Yup ba

8 hours ago, ZonkoVille77 said:

Too lazy to go back through the thread to point out those that laughed off the suggestion it was anyone other than Russians.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/

Yeah… The source’s information could not immediately be corroborated

Yeah I’d be lazy also in the above. 

[ZonkoVille77]

12 hours ago, DJLJ said:

Yup ba

Yeah… The source’s information could not immediately be corroborated

Yeah I’d be lazy also in the above. 

 

I've just emailed the Washington Post to tell them that DJLJ off The Liverpool Way forum thinks they're passing on misinformation. I'll let you know what they come back with. 

[SasaS]

Tom is furious over the dam with no less than three articles, TLDR, there is no way anyone but Russians did it and it's horrible. (There is also a fresh one on the nuclear power plant)

 

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-8-june-2023-the-russian

 

 

In the meantime, Michael Kofman weighs in on the dam military implications.

 

 

[Fugitive]

This could get pretty messy…

 

Russia appears to have moved to take direct control of Wagner, after months of infighting between defence officials and the private military group.

 

Deputy Defence Minister Nikolai Pankov said on Saturday "volunteer formations" will be asked to sign contracts directly with the ministry of defence.

 

The vaguely worded statement is widely believed to target the group.

 

But in a furious statement on Sunday, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said his forces would boycott the contracts. 

The private military group has played a major role in the war in Ukraine, fighting on the side of Russian forces. 

 

But Prigozhin, who is said to hold political ambitions of his own, has been embroiled in a public dispute with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and military chief Valery Gerasimov for months. 

 

He has repeatedly accused the pair of incompetence and of deliberately undersupplying Wagner units fighting in Ukraine. 

"Wagner will not sign any contracts with Shoigu," Prigozhin said in response to a request for comment on the defence ministry's announcement. "Shoigu cannot properly manage military formation." 

He insisted that his group was well integrated with the Russian military, but said that its effectiveness would be damaged by having to report to the defence minister. 

 

While Saturday's announcement did not directly reference Wagner or any other paramilitary groups, Russian media suggested that the new contracts were a move to bring Prigozhin and his forces under control. 

 

But the defence ministry said the move was designed to "increase the effectiveness" of Russian units fighting in Ukraine. 

 

"This will give volunteer formations the necessary legal status, create common approaches to the organization of comprehensive support and the fulfilment of their tasks," the ministry said in a statement, adding that the contracts must be signed by 1 July. 

 

The long-running tensions between the Wagner Group and the army have threatened to boil over in recent weeks. 

Last week the group kidnapped a senior frontline army commander, Lt Col Roman Venevitin, after accusing him of opening fire on a Wagner vehicle near Bakhmut. 

Lt Col Venevitin was later released, and in a video shared by Russian military bloggers he accused the group of stoking "anarchy" on Russia's frontlines by stealing arms, forcing mobilised soldiers to sign contracts with the group and attempting to extort weapons from the defence ministry. 

 

Prigozhin called the comments - which appeared to be read from a script - "absolutely total nonsense".

He has also suggested that he is ready to deploy his troops on Russian soil, saying on Telegram that Wagner was ready to fight against insurrectionist forces in the Belgorod region. 

 

In December, the US estimated that Wagner had around 50,000 troops fighting in Ukraine. 

 

And the mercenary group has increasingly become a tool of Russian state power around the world. Its troops are currently believed to have been deployed in Mali, the Central African Republic,Sudan and Libya.