"A desperate gamble? No, it's a calculated poker move" by Steve Baker

[tlw content]

'It's a gamble'. There, it's said now. Just as it has been said also by a million other writers, tweeters, ex-players, pundits sports phone in hosts and callers. Statement of the painfully obvious agreed. If buying any player has an element of risk then only the most starry eyed optimist could suggest signing Mario Balotelli is a lock.

 

The suggestion that the modest price tag for such a player of this talent makes this a shot to nothing misses the point: resale value is a secondary (though not unimportant) consideration which only comes into play if the real objective of delivering on the pitch for Liverpool fails. Given the aim is success on the pitch now rather than financial consolation later, Super Mario needs to live up to his billing to at least a significant degree for this purpose to be fulfilled.

 

There is little to be added to the countless contributions on the pros and cons of the man himself which can be summarised thus: by almost universal consent an amazing, potentially, world-class talent , a really good bloke but, well, a bit of a fruit loop capable of committing all manner of madness which may be entertaining to the outsider but less amusing when it involves shooting himself and your own team in the foot.

 

The sum of all the analysis is this: we cannot come close to knowing how this will work out other than to say it will fall somewhere on the spectrum between abject disaster and genius driven triumph.

 

What is worthy of further consideration is what this transfer says about the state of mind of the decision makers at Liverpool F.C. at this point in time. While every transfer window can be seen as important, the dealings of this summer are undoubtedly seminal given the conjunction of the return to Champions League football and the departure of Luis Suarez.

 

While for many, a policy of sensible acquisition should guide us to a realistic aim of consolidating our place in the top four, the signing of Balotelli signals a firm rejection of this self-limiting ordinance. The 'safe' move would have been to buy a player of solid virtue such as Wilfried Bony who would probably guarantee a reasonable goal return and consistent level of performance without the baggage associated with Balotelli.

 

The supposed wage issues with Bony could probably have been narrowed if his reported determination to join Liverpool was true and the club had pursued him with real intent. But for all his merits, even the most ardent admirer of Bony would struggle to say his talent and potential comes close to that of Balotelli which, if realised, could inspire a renewed challenge for the highest honours in this and future seasons.

 

The scenes of adulation greeting Balotelli at Melwood showed the supporters instinctively sensed these possibilities and are themselves energised in a way which would not be true of a perfectly respectable but more prosaic alternative.

 

So the move for Balotelli is Liverpool painting with the boldest of brushstrokes in opting for mercurial brilliance with all its risks and rewards. But this is not the all in move of the desperate gambler trying to defy the odds in a last desperate move to stay afloat but rather the calculated aggressive push of the poker player that knows he has manoeuvred so that he puts his money in the middle when he has the best of it.

 

Having spent the summer thus far building a solid foundation absent last year the signing of Balotelli is a gamble but one which is a coup de grace to end a summer of assiduous and calculated planning.

 

Steve Baker

@Countthem12345

 

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[xerxes]

A "Coup de grace?"

[alles ist gut]

A "Coup de grace?"

Deux filles, un coup, I think, Rodders...

[halewood pete]

Good post

[Phoenix]

It is a gamble/ best option available for the price.

 

He wouldnt have been close to top of the list of replacements for Suarez at the start of the summer window. Poker move would suggest that it was pre-planned throughout.

[Pureblood]

Gamble!

 

[Babb'sBurstNad]

All transfers are a gamble in some sense, but I'd agree Balotelli's a calculated risk worth taking if we hold aspirations of not just consolidating, but adapting and potentially getting better.

 

Even in his worst season, he scored goals, and I don't think the team unity that's been built could be sunk by just one player as some seem to be scared of.

 

I know people don't like the comparisons to Suarez' behaviour, but the team spirit didn't seem to waver through a racial abuse claim, constant media baiting and bans which could have adversely impacted on the team. If anything, the group got stronger.

 

Rodgers has a tight core of players, and I reckon at worst Balotelli will be more likened to Babel than Barton, his possible cardinal sin being a lack of work rate rather than more volatile controversy. If he scores at the rate of his career thus far though - roughly 1 in 2 - then I can't see there being too much dissatisfaction with that, certainly at the price paid.

[TheHowieLama]

I will guarantee he scores more for us than Andy Carroll and Stewart Downing combined.

Guarantee.

 

OK?

[moof]

I will guarantee he scores more for us than Andy Carroll and Stewart Downing combined.

Guarantee.

 

OK?

Before Christmas? Yeah.

[s(k)aturation]

We finished second last year. 

Beyond the wildest of anyone's expectations.

I think rolling the dice, unexpectedly, and trying to capitalize on that mystique and momentum is a totally acceptable and even logical next move.

We have come from nowhere to contenders, and I think risking taking a step back is well worth it to throw everything at moving that one spot up the table.

One spot.

We haven't won a title for 24 years.

We came within two points last year.

It's worth going for broke for another season.

Clearly, it's going to be about scoring again, by the look, rather than suddenly becoming this impregnable defensive wall.

If it all goes wrong, then the patient rebuilding can resume next season.

Like Suarez, this Balotelli fella isn't going to define our club or its reputation or its future.

Not in one season.

Let's give it a crack.

While we're up there, and still have others worried about us.

Worry about the consequences next May.

We could be Champions.

And if not, what the fuck? We start again. 

And if Balotelli is an unmitigated disaster, it's a one season unmitigated disaster.

It won't make or break the club.

It hasn't in over 120 years so far.

[Steve Baker]

It is a gamble/ best option available for the price.

 

He wouldnt have been close to top of the list of replacements for Suarez at the start of the summer window. Poker move would suggest that it was pre-planned throughout.

It appears to be true that Balotelli was not top of the list of replacements at the start of the summer although according to his agent-and there is no real reason to disbelieve this given he said it once the deal was essentially done-we have been in discussions regarding a  possible move for three months so this is not a case of simply buying whatever striker happens to be left on the shelf.

 

As to the poker analogy,if you play Texas Hold 'Em you will know that while you may have a plan when the cards are first dealt to you, that plan will  often change as further cards are dealt and change the situation . The breakdown of the Remy move  may have forced a change in the plan but the club could still have pursued more conservative options such as Bony .Instead they have evidently made a conscious calculation that higher risk-high reward is the way to go.

[Steve Baker]

A "Coup de grace?"

 

 

"any finishing or decisive stroke"

www.freedictionary.com

 

So yes a coup de grace in this sense.This move looks like it is designed to be the decisive game changing signing many supporters have wanted, made against a  wider background of intelligent  team building this summer. 

[Phoenix]

It appears to be true that Balotelli was not top of the list of replacements at the start of the summer although according to his agent-and there is no real reason to disbelieve this given he said it once the deal was essentially done-we have been in discussions regarding a  possible move for three months so this is not a case of simply buying whatever striker happens to be left on the shelf.

 

As to the poker analogy,if you play Texas Hold 'Em you will know that while you may have a plan when the cards are first dealt to you, that plan will  often change as further cards are dealt and change the situation . The breakdown of the Remy move  may have forced a change in the plan but the club could still have pursued more conservative options such as Bony .Instead they have evidently made a conscious calculation that higher risk-high reward is the way to go.

 

His agent said he has been trying to engineer a move for him for 3 months . That is from the original quotes. Some articles are now using those quotes as somehow being in discussions with us for 3 months.

 

He was being offered to Arsenal before us. They pulled the plug after the world cup.

 

I agree with the second paragraph of what you say.

[Babb'sBurstNad]

His agent said he has been trying to engineer a move for him for 3 months . That is from the original quotes. Some articles are now using those quotes as somehow being in discussions with us for 3 months.

 

He was being offered to Arsenal before us. They pulled the plug after the world cup.

 

I agree with the second paragraph of what you say.

 

Where did you get the info about Arsenal turning him down?

 

I thought Raiola (alright, not necessarily the most trustworthy source) said he hadn't spoken to any other English clubs.

[JermainePennant]

Its no risk for us as Mario is not been brought in as our main man, if he wants to fuck around he'll be fucked off and we could cope without him.

 

Marcotti summed the deal up this morning, if Mario stays at the same level it will have been a good deal and value for money, if he progresses and reaches his potential lfc have hit the jackpot.

Edited August 25, 2014 by JermainePennant

[Phoenix]

Where did you get the info about Arsenal turning him down?

 

I thought Raiola (alright, not necessarily the most trustworthy source) said he hadn't spoken to any other English clubs.

 

You would sack your agent if he had only talked to one club in England. You really don't believe that do you? I imagine he has been offered to the all of the top four from last year.

 

 “Arsenal are a fantastic club. Will a transfer happen? Anything is possible.”

[Babb'sBurstNad]

You would sack your agent if he had only talked to one club in England. You really don't believe that do you? I imagine he has been offered to the all of the top four from last year.

 

 “Arsenal are a fantastic club. Will a transfer happen? Anything is possible.”

 

I certainly don't take anything Raiola says at face value, but there's a difference between viewing his words with suspicion and thinking Arsenal turned Balotelli down.

 

Where did you hear that?

[Phoenix]

I certainly don't take anything Raiola says at face value, but there's a difference between viewing his words with suspicion and thinking Arsenal turned Balotelli down.

 

Where did you hear that?

You really dont think he was offered around the top clubs of the PL never mind europe? You dont need to be suspicious, just common sense would dictate he has been.

 

It was all over the media at the time. Plenty of newspapers were carrying the story. Wenger even had to deny he was signing him at the World Cup.

[JermainePennant]

The Milan owner said they had agreed a deal with an English club before the wc for something like 25m but after his performances the club pulled out.

 

It seems quite clear that was arsenal as they were the only club linked to him then, its there loss anyway and I don't think living in London or working under a soft touch like Wenger would have been good for Mario.

[Babb'sBurstNad]

You really dont think he was offered around the top clubs of the PL never mind europe? You dont need to be suspicious, just common sense would dictate he has been.

 

It was all over the media at the time. Plenty of newspapers were carrying the story. Wenger even had to deny he was signing him at the World Cup.

 

I didn't say I didn't think he was offered around, I merely asked what made you convinced Arsenal had turned him down after the World Cup, that's all.