It appears to be true that Balotelli was not top of the list of replacements at the start of the summer although according to his agent-and there is no real reason to disbelieve this given he said it once the deal was essentially done-we have been in discussions regarding a possible move for three months so this is not a case of simply buying whatever striker happens to be left on the shelf.
As to the poker analogy,if you play Texas Hold 'Em you will know that while you may have a plan when the cards are first dealt to you, that plan will often change as further cards are dealt and change the situation . The breakdown of the Remy move may have forced a change in the plan but the club could still have pursued more conservative options such as Bony .Instead they have evidently made a conscious calculation that higher risk-high reward is the way to go.