Brendan Rodgers, a statistical overview of Swansea 11/12.

[Code]

Lets see if its possible to get some facts on the table and lets see if its possible to conclude anything from it?

 

Lets start with Swansea's results last season.

 

Premier League games 11/12:

 

Home: 19 8 7 4 27-18 31p

Away: 19 4 4 11 17-33 16p

Total: 38 12 11 15 44 51

 

Home games:

Wins home:

2011-09-17 Swansea-West Brom 3-0 (2-0)

2011-10-02 Swansea-Stoke 2-0 (1-0)

2011-10-29 Swansea-Bolton 3-1 (0-0)

2011-12-10 Swansea-Fulham 2-0 (0-0)

2012-01-15 Swansea-Arsenal 3-2 (1-1)

2012-03-11 Swansea-Man City 1-0 (0-0)

2012-04-14 Swansea-Blackburn 3-0 (2-0)

2012-05-13 Swansea-Liverpool 1-0 (0-0)

 

In the 8 games they won at home they conceded only 3 goals and they kept a clean sheet in 6 of the games. The quality of the opposition differs a lot so its not possible draw any conclusions from it, but when they have a good day at home they are not goal shy with 18 goals scored in the same 8 games.

 

Draws home:

2011-08-20 Swansea-Wigan 0-0 (0-0)

2011-08-27 Swansea-Sunderland 0-0 (0-0)

2011-11-27 Swansea-Aston Villa 0-0 (0-0)

2011-12-27 Swansea-Queens Park Rangers 1-1 (1-0)

2011-12-31 Swansea-Tottenham 1-1 (0-1)

2012-01-31 Swansea-Chelsea 1-1 (1-0)

2012-04-28 Swansea-Wolverhampton 4-4 (4-2)

 

The home draws apart from the Wolves game have all been low scoring games and again it looks like they dont concede much at home, if we look away from the Wolves game for a minute it will be only 6 goals conceded from the 14 home games they either drew or won, thats something to build on, 9 clean sheets at home are pretty good as well.

 

Losses home:

2011-11-19 Swansea-Man United 0-1 (0-1)

2012-02-11 Swansea-Norwich 2-3 (1-0)

2012-03-24 Swansea-Everton 0-2 (0-0)

2012-04-06 Swansea-Newcastle 0-2 (0-1)

 

Only 4 losses at home and only 2 before they had secured to stay up with 39 points in late March, the last 2 losses came against in form teams like Everton and Newcastle so all in all they should be happy with their home form and its almost good enough by itself to avoid relegation and that is something.

 

Swansea finished 9th in the home table but after what people will describe as the worst season at Anfield in living memory we only finished with 4 points less in 11th, so Rodgers will need to improve his record and that should be possible with better players and a supposedly better crowd next season.

 

 

Away games:

Wins away:

2012-01-02 Aston Villa-Swansea 0-2 (0-1)

2012-02-04 West Bromwich-Swansea 1-2 (0-0)

2012-03-03 Wigan-Swansea 0-2 (0-1)

2012-03-17 Fulham-Swansea 0-3 (0-1)

 

They did not get their first away win before after new year and the teams they managed to beat were mostly shite, this might be where the real challenge will come for Rodgers, how to win more games away from home and especially against good teams.

 

Draws away:

2011-10-22 Wolverhampton-Swansea 2-2 (0-2)

2011-11-05 Liverpool-Swansea 0-0 (0-0)

2011-12-17 Newcastle-Swansea 0-0 (0-0)

2012-04-21 Bolton-Swansea 1-1 (1-1)

 

Another highs scoring draw against relegated Wolves in the mix with relegated Bolton and 2 goal less ones against us and Newcastle, looking at this its obvious the away trips might become something of a challenge.

In the 8 games they got away with points away from home the opposition only scored 4 goals and 2 of those came against Wolves who actually scored 6 goals against Swansea last season in 2 games.

 

Losses away:

2011-08-15 Man City-Swansea 4-0 (0-0)

2011-09-10 Arsenal-Swansea 1-0 (1-0)

2011-09-24 Chelsea-Swansea 4-1 (2-0)

2011-10-15 Norwich-Swansea 3-1 (2-1)

2011-12-03 Blackburn-Swansea 4-2 (2-1)

2011-12-21 Everton-Swansea 1-0 (0-0)

2012-01-21 Sunderland-Swansea 2-0 (1-0)

2012-02-26 Stoke-Swansea 2-0 (2-0)

2012-04-01 Tottenham-Swansea 3-1 (1-0)

2012-04-11 Queens Park Rangers-Swansea 3-0 (1-0)

2012-05-06 Manchester United-Swansea 2-0 (2-0)

 

Swansea's away form is a bit of a concern, in the away table they finish 16th, only 3 points ahead of Wolves in 18th. They got their 4 away wins between the beginning of January and the middle of March and this is an area where Rodgers ideas wiull be put to the test.

 

Normally we take our fair share of points at home so basically it should not matter much who the manager is, its how we can fare away from home that will decide how close to the top we will finish, a win or a draw here and there will not be enough, Liverpool fans will expect 3 points from most games we play and how will Rodgers cope with this pressure?

 

 

Results from domestic cups:

FA Cup:

2012-01-07 Round 3 Barnsley-Swansea 2-4 (1-1)

2012-01-28 Round 4 Bolton-Swansea 2-1 (1-1)

 

League Cup:

2011-08-23 Round 2 Shrewsbury Town-Swansea 3-1 (1-1)

 

Not exactly something to raise the puls this, but I guess domestic cups does not matter much anymore so it should not really be a point of concern, but being knocked out of them by teams like relegated Bolton and Shrewsbury is not acceptable in any way or form, we have had enough of that shite down the years.

 

 

Goals stats:

Average pr game - 2.50 goals

Average pr homegame - 2.37 goals

Average pr awaygame - 2.63 goals

Average for at home - 1.42 goals

Average against at home - 0.95 goals

Average for away - 0.89 goals

Average against away - 1.74 goals

 

Goals by method for and against:

Right foot - 31 vs 30 and Liverpool 23 vs 23

Left foot - 6 vs 11 and Liverpool 14 vs 7

Head - 7 vs 10 and Liverpool 10 vs 10

 

Goals from place for and against:

6 yard box: 6 vs 11 and Liverpool 14 vs 14

Pen area: 31 vs 33 and Liverpool 27 vs 24

Long range: 7 vs 7 and Liverpool 6 vs 2

 

Goals from play for and against:

Open play: 32 vs 36 and Liverpool 35 vs 25

Dead ball: 7 vs 13 and Liverpool 11 vs 11

Penalty: 5 vs 2 and Liverpool 1 vs 4

 

Attacking stats compared to Liverpool:

Goals scored - 44 vs 47

Shots - 419 vs 612

Crosses - 270 vs 624

Offsides - 65 vs 125

 

Defensive stats compared to Liverpool:

Goals conceded - 51 vs 40

Saves made - 207 vs 155

Own goals - 2 vs 3

Clean sheets - 14 vs 12

Blocks - 125 vs 88

Clearances - 247 vs 249

 

 

This took a bit too much time and I was going to comment on most things to see if I could find a conclusion, but for now let me just add that its fuckin ridiculous that we sacked dalglish to appoint Rodgers.

 

But I guess all we can do is hope for the best as there is not much to gain from dwelling on the past.

[TheHowieLama]

He is no Rafa Benitez that is for sure - can you do a side by side of him and Rafa?

[WaltonRed]

Yawn

 

are you a human being or a robot?

[Lario]

He's here, get over it.

[Babb'sBurstNad]

Any chance of possession and passing stats?

[Monster Masch]

Different club, different players, different resources.

 

It's the exact same thing as the Martinez and Wigan conceded x amount of goals theory. It doesn't mean because Swansea's or Wigan's defence conceded this or did that, then Skrtel and Agger or whoever is playing at Liverpool will do the same.

 

It makes no sense, the man worked miracles with the resources available.

 

Compare his stats to Klopp's before Dortmund, Rafa's before Valencia, Ferguson's before Man Utd and Wenger's before Arsenal.

[Jairzinho]

Its certainly a risk.

 

I just can't see this breaking into the top four of Brendan Rodgers threads.

[Anubis]

Without a breakdown of when each goal was scored or conceded, a graph of the results, and the passing ratios and passing lengths of each player comparative to their time on the pitch, I think the figures are incomplete an can't be properly scrutinised.

[The Tott]

Different club, different players, different resources.

 

It's the exact same thing as the Martinez and Wigan conceded x amount of goals theory. It doesn't mean because Swansea's or Wigan's defence conceded this or did that, then Skrtel and Agger or whoever is playing at Liverpool will do the same.

 

It makes no sense, the man worked miracles with the resources available.

 

Compare his stats to Klopp's before Dortmund, Rafa's before Valencia, Ferguson's before Man Utd and Wenger's before Arsenal.

 

Spot on Jenkins. What the guy achieved with a very limited budget has been incredible. Bringing ateam up and finishing 11th in the premiership is a wonderful achievement in itself but to do it playing beautiful football is something else.

 

Cant wait for him to get started now.

[Torvald Utne]

Without a breakdown of when each goal was scored or conceded, a graph of the results, and the passing ratios and passing lengths of each player comparative to their time on the pitch, I think the figures are incomplete an can't be properly scrutinised.

 

I was just going to call him a boring cunt but this is a much better way of achieving that goal.

[Guest the boy]

What a novelty you are.

 

Do you have any remotely relevant statistics? Such as performance in each quarter of the season versus teams of similar budget? Performance of players whilst working under Rodgers compared with their average performance at other clubs? His ability to react during games to affect final result, or his ability to successfully implement various formations throughout the season? His ability to change the shape of the team when presented with injury or suspension?

 

Trying to glean a statistical comparison between Swansea and Liverpool is very foolish.

[Newport]

Always the contrarian ... but an interesting read anyway.

Edited May 31, 2012 by Newport

[lifetime fan]

Without a breakdown of when each goal was scored or conceded, a graph of the results, and the passing ratios and passing lengths of each player comparative to their time on the pitch, I think the figures are incomplete an can't be properly scrutinised.

 

 

I hope to fuck when Dave does the site upgrade over the summer it doesn't allow powerpoint presentations.

[Code]

Its easy to read a few interesting things out of these numbers though.

 

Let me try and make a few comments and see if it makes sense.

 

Goals by method for and against:

Right foot - 31 vs 30 and Liverpool 23 vs 23

Left foot - 6 vs 11 and Liverpool 14 vs 7

Head - 7 vs 10 and Liverpool 10 vs 10

 

Nothing much to add here really apart from us scoring a few more headers, probably because we cross the ball far more and that we scored more than double the amount of goals from left footers.

 

 

Goals from place for and against:

6 yard box: 6 vs 11 and Liverpool 14 vs 14

Pen area: 31 vs 33 and Liverpool 27 vs 24

Long range: 7 vs 7 and Liverpool 6 vs 2

 

This on the other hand is a bit interesting. We scored far more goals than Swansea from close range, could it be because we get into the box more especially from wide areas, most likely. With all the posession Swansea have you would think they were able to get people into the box or could it be that they dont have that much posession in the last third and are not very dangerous based on their posession?

I read a stats from Stu earlier that we were the team with most posession in our oppositions half and Swansea were one of the teams with less, if thats the case its a concern.

 

Goals from play for and against:

Open play: 32 vs 36 and Liverpool 35 vs 25

Dead ball: 7 vs 13 and Liverpool 11 vs 11

Penalty: 5 vs 2 and Liverpool 1 vs 4

 

We dont score penalties, they do. We also concede far less from open play than they do, could this be because they try to keep posession in their own half or just overall and are caugth on the break more often?

They also seem to struggle to create from set pieces, in tight games goals from set pieces often are the difference between the teams, another worry.

 

Attacking stats compared to Liverpool:

Goals scored - 44 vs 47

Shots - 419 vs 612

Crosses - 270 vs 624

Offsides - 65 vs 125

 

This tells a story though, mostly of our superiority in creating chances compared to Swansea, again probably a result of the fact we are the team with most posession in our oppositions half in the league and when I look at the offside stats it makes me wonder what exactly has been Swansea game plan as it seems their deep posession dont give them many chances and they dont try to get in behind the opposition either.

 

Defensive stats compared to Liverpool:

Goals conceded - 51 vs 40

Saves made - 207 vs 155

Own goals - 2 vs 3

Clean sheets - 14 vs 12

Blocks - 125 vs 88

Clearances - 247 vs 249

 

Not so much to add here apart from the fact Swansea seems to let the opposition get a lot more shots on goal than us even if they are supposed to have the posession to not give the opposition this opportunity.

 

 

All in all I think Rodgers has a lot to prove and he will simply have to reach another level tactically pretty fast, the expectations are massively different from what he is used to and the odd result here and there will take him nowhere with this club.

 

I remain optimistic but to be honest I'm not sure why, hopefully its because his set up in theory should be what we are looking for but I'll await my judgement until I get the chance to see if theory can become reality.

[KOP123]

i very really post, but on this issue i am an authority. I have a degree in maths and statistics, and although now a i am a freelance I.T consultant now , previously i was a professional statistician.

I wont bore you with statisical thoery, but basically there are two types of variables in statistics, quantifyable variables, such as the average ground a player covers per game, and non-quantifyiable variables, such as a players ability to read the game, a metric is it impossible to put a numerical scale against.

The most dangerous thing i have ever incounted in my career is to give a statistic to a non-statistician in order for them to make a business decision on. Non-statisticians THINK they know how to inteprtrit stats, in reality they dont.

a simple example would be a stat on the distance a central midfielder covers in a game, one could cover 12k, another 8k, placing that statistic in front of a non-statistician the ametueur would say it's a non-brainer, go with the 12k guy.

A trained statistician would say, hang on, what are the non -quantifiable variables around this issue, does the 8k player play on a smaller home ground pitch ? does the 8k players manager instruction him to sit deep and hold even though he has a great engine ? if the 8k player plays abroad, does he play in a hot climate which would reduce the distance he covers? etc, because the stats say he covers more ground, stats can never cater for non-quantiftable vaiables like didi hamman stopping an attack at source by simply steeping 5 yards to his right, eye-balling the oppsoition mid-fielder and saying donet even think about in son i've got it covered, where as a lee cattermole would have great stats because he runs round like an idiot because he cant read the game very well!

it really pisses me off when i see the likes of tompkins potificanting on statistics when the idiot has not got the first clue how to interpert them properly, again an example of the most dangerous scenario possible, letting non-statisticians form conclusions on statistics they simply dont know how to interprit properly

[lifetime fan]

[Fugitive]

[KOP123]

altough you are taking the piss lifetime_fan, i agree with you, footbal is something that can never be reduced to pure statistics, you will never get it right by statistcal analysis, and i say that as a statistican, it's all about human interpritation of the game, basically something the likes of geniuses like shankly had and me and you dont!

[lifetime fan]

altough you are taking the piss lifetime_fan, i agree with you, footbal is something that can never be reduced to pure statistics, you will never get it right by statistcal analysis, and i say that as a statistican, it's all about human interpritation of the game, basically something the likes of geniuses like shankly had and me and you dont!

 

 

Yes I was taking the piss. As you were.

[KOP123]

actually lifetime_fan i was'nt, i am a trained statistician, and it this modern phenomenon of dickheads likes tompkins trying to promote their views on supposed valid statistical studies, when really what they are writing is total crap, is leading to fans judging players and managers on totally mis-interpreted facts. I actually did my degree thesis 20 yrs ago on trying to analyse football statistically, my final conclusions were i came up with nothing, it was impossible to do due to so many unquantifyiable variables, i thought i had fucked my degree up big time. My lecturer said to me i had learned the most important thing a statistician can learn, when to realise a subject is unsuiable for statistical analysis, and for that conclusion, i got a 1st! and even tough i am a scouser and i wa sbrought up in townsend lane in anfield , i went to an ivy league university in the U.S, not a mickey mouse former poly, and i have had a very succesful career since then, so i do know what i am talking about

[lifetime fan]

actually lifetime_fan i was'nt, i am a trained statistician, and it this modern phenomenon of dickheads likes tompkins trying to promote their views on supposed valid statistical studies, when really what they are writing is total crap, is leading to fans judging players and managers on totally mis-interpreted facts. I actually did my degree thesis 20 yrs ago on trying to analyse football statistically, my final conclusions were i came up with nothing, it was impossible to do due to so many unquantifyiable variables, i thought i had fucked my degree up big time. My lecturer said to me i had learned the most important thing a statistician can learn, when to realise a subject is unsuiable for statistical analysis, and for that conclusion, i got a 1st! and even tough i am a scouser and i wa sbrought up in townsend lane in anfield , i went to an ivy league university in the U.S, not a mickey mouse former poly, and i have had a very succesful career since then, so i do know what i am talking about

 

 

I don't give a fuck mate, that's why I was taking the piss.

[KOP123]

fair enough, i would probably have taken the piss myself in your position given what i said, but you must agree if FSG are speaking to the likes of tompkins, and the dickhead does'nt know what he is talking about, it cant be a good thing for the club, surley

[lifetime fan]

fair enough, i would probably have taken the piss myself in your position given what i said, but you must agree if FSG are speaking to the likes of tompkins, and the dickhead does'nt know what he is talking about, it cant be a good thing for the club, surley

 

I've never read more than the first paragraph of anything Tomkins has ever written so have no idea if what he's telling them is correct or not.

 

What FSG need to do is appoint someone like Dein or Barwick to work at the club full time so there is no need to speak to anyone and they can just get on with running the club quietly and efficiently.

[KOP123]

i am in 100% agreement with you mate, stats might work in sports like baseball or cricket, it never will in football, like you said, what we need is football people who actually know what they are doing

[Code]

Its no problem to make a valid assumption of something football related by just looking at stats as long as you actually have a bit of football knowledge and knows how to fit the stats into a context.

 

The end.