Donald Trump

[Dougie Do'ins]

BBC News - Jacob Blake: Donald Trump to visit Kenosha amid unrest

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53962653

[Evelyn Tentions]

6 hours ago, Fluter in Dakota said:

The US voting system is totally fucked. Hillary Clinton actually won more votes overall in the last election but because trump won more votes in the 'Battleground States', that resulted in his election. I don't know how that can be seen as representative of America that only certain states actually count. 

There are some horrendous gerrymanders over there, nearly all Republican.

The degree of built in bias that the Republicans have managed is staggering.

[Anubis]

 

 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

He's a caricature of an obnoxious billionaire, but there are people without a pot to piss in who see him as their guy.

 

Racism will take you a long way, if you know how to use it. 

[Gnasher]

12 hours ago, Rico1304 said:

Evens now.  3/1 a week ago.  
 

The left always eats itself.  

I think the bookies got this about right, ie it's a lot closer than people think.

[Bruce Spanner]

6 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

I think the bookies got this about right, ie it's a lot closer than people think.

Or, the bookmakers have seen the current panic and are trying to make a profit from it as, we all know, bookmakers don’t want you to be right, they want you to throw money away.

 

 

[skend04]

The betting is at huge odds to the polling. Americans can't bet on it either so it's all overseas bettors. Moore is probably trying to rally the Democratic vote to ensure they go out and actually vote and not just rely on what the polls are saying.

[magicrat]

2 hours ago, skend04 said:

The betting is at huge odds to the polling. Americans can't bet on it either so it's all overseas bettors. Moore is probably trying to rally the Democratic vote to ensure they go out and actually vote and not just rely on what the polls are saying.

Yes it is, For those that can be arsed wading through the scenarios this article is good and shows Trump to be a much bigger dog than the betting odds.

 

https://www.newstatesman.com/international/2020/08/us-2020-presidential-election-forecast-model-will-donald-trump-or-joe-biden

[Moo]

2 hours ago, skend04 said:

The betting is at huge odds to the polling. Americans can't bet on it either so it's all overseas bettors. Moore is probably trying to rally the Democratic vote to ensure they go out and actually vote and not just rely on what the polls are saying.

I wondered that but it didn't work last time.  Voter apathy, or the assumption that someone like Trump can't possibly win, could be key again.

 

I don't just think he's playing up to the racist gallery either, patriarchy also goes a long way too.

 

[TheHowieLama]

2 hours ago, skend04 said:

The betting is at huge odds to the polling. Americans can't bet on it either so it's all overseas bettors. Moore is probably trying to rally the Democratic vote to ensure they go out and actually vote and not just rely on what the polls are saying.

Long time left in this race. So yeah, trying to keep the sense of urgency that was apparent after Floyd everyday for the next couple months is going to be difficult.

[Section_31]

19 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Long time left in this race. So yeah, trying to keep the sense of urgency that was apparent after Floyd everyday for the next couple months is going to be difficult.

I think Biden faces the same battle as Starmer to an extent, trying to create a broad coalition of voters is getting harder because everyone is so polarised. 

 

He'll be getting shit from Republicans and shit from progressives, trying to make the latter realise that Bernie isn't on the ballot paper is essential, and that it's surely better to have Biden in there than to just spend the next four years tweeting and protesting about Trump.

 

Feels like the art of compromise is being lost, and compromise is necessary in a two party state, unless you have a party for every conceivable viewpoint.

[dockers_strike]

11 hours ago, Fluter in Dakota said:

The US voting system is totally fucked. Hillary Clinton actually won more votes overall in the last election but because trump won more votes in the 'Battleground States', that resulted in his election. I don't know how that can be seen as representative of America that only certain states actually count. 

It is a weird system. To us at least. The US President isnt elected by direct, popular vote. People vote for their candidate in each state. Each State has a number of 'votes' in the Electoral College based on how populous each state is. More people in a State, the more votes in the college that State has.

 

The Electoral College isnt bound to allocate votes to the winning candidate as voted by a State but normally does. I think the last time they didnt was some time in the 1800's.

 

That said, even in the UK, a party can have the most candidates returned and form a Government on fewer votes than the main opposition party got due to variation in the size of some constituencies.

[TheHowieLama]

14 minutes ago, dockers_strike said:

 

The Electoral College isnt bound to allocate votes to the winning candidate as voted by a State but normally does. I think the last time they didnt was some time in the 1800's.

 

It happened in the last election.

[TheHowieLama]

21 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

Feels like the art of compromise is being lost, and compromise is necessary in a two party state, unless you have a party for every conceivable viewpoint.

One thing Biden can show is a history of working across the aisle - not all of it good but still - actually doing it.

Trump is not only unwilling to, he is unable to.

[niallers]

It's also fucking crazy the way they have  2 senators for every state instead of by population size. California has 2 and so does both dakotas. California has 40 million whereas North and south dak have under a million each.

Moscow mitch has way too much power in the Senate as the smaller populated central states are usually republican and per person, those states have way way too much leverage. 

[TheHowieLama]

Alot of this bullshit would go away by introducing term limits. I don't for one second believe that the Founding Fathers foresaw someone spending their entire life in Congress.

[Section_31]

Would be a proper doss being a Republican senator, I'd fucking love it. Senator for Kentucky or some shit, I'd wear a suit but with a big fuck off cowboy belt buckle and a christian fish pin badge on my lapel. Absolute job for life.

 

"Senator why haven't you been to any meetings for the last four years?"

 

"Because communism."

 

"What a guy."

[AngryOfTuebrook]

26 minutes ago, niallers said:

It's also fucking crazy the way they have  2 senators for every state instead of by population size. California has 2 and so does both dakotas. California has 40 million whereas North and south dak have under a million each.

Moscow mitch has way too much power in the Senate as the smaller populated central states are usually republican and per person, those states have way way too much leverage. 

It guards against, for example, a vote to change the national anthem to "Rhode Island Is Full of Twats".

That's the point of having a bi-cameral legislature: one house has states represented proportionally, the other has them represented equally.

[Gnasher]

4 hours ago, Bruce Spanner said:

Or, the bookmakers have seen the current panic and are trying to make a profit from it as, we all know, bookmakers don’t want you to be right, they want you to throw money away.

A bookmaker couldn't care less if you are right or wrong, they are turf accountants and adjust the odds to suit their books, bar for the very odd occasions when a string of favourites win one after the other the result is pretty much immaterial. 

 

The normal reason for a bookmaker shortening the odds on Trump is a lot of people were betting him at the odds offered and the layer (bookie) has adjusted his books accordingly.

4 hours ago, Bruce Spanner said:

 

 

[Trumo]

1 hour ago, AngryofTuebrook said:

It guards against, for example, a vote to change the national anthem to "Rhode Island Is Full of Twats".

That's the point of having a bi-cameral legislature: one house has states represented proportionally, the other has them represented equally.

 

That's harsh on all both of them.

[Bjornebye]

25 minutes ago, Trumo said:

 

That's harsh on all both of them.

And Jaws 

[Bruce Spanner]

1 hour ago, Gnasher said:

A bookmaker couldn't care less if you are right or wrong, they are turf accountants and adjust the odds to suit their books, bar for the very odd occasions when a string of favourites win one after the other the result is pretty much immaterial. 

 

The normal reason for a bookmaker shortening the odds on Trump is a lot of people were betting him at the odds offered and the layer (bookie) has adjusted his books accordingly.

 

Well, that’s just silly, isn’t it?

[TheHowieLama]

1 minute ago, Bruce Spanner said:

Well, that’s just silly, isn’t it?

Turns out one outcome is a little better for him.

[Gnasher]

1 minute ago, Bruce Spanner said:

Well, that’s just silly, isn’t it?

It's like a weighing scale, a good bookie will balance the books so he wins whatever the result. Thats the theory, hd will then earn without risk. Not as easy as it sounds though and not as much profit I playing percentages, a few shrewd big bets/a late flurry of money etc can result in bookmaker liability, that's why they try to move the odds to alter the market thus alter their profits/losses.

[Bruce Spanner]

Just now, Gnasher said:

It's like a weighing scale, a good bookie will balance the books so he wins whatever the result. Thats the theory, hd will then earn without risk. Not as easy as it sounds though and not as much profit I playing percentages, a few shrewd big bets/a late flurry of money etc can result in bookmaker liability, that's why they try to move the odds to alter the market thus alter their profits/losses.

Oh, I’m aware of how it works and that’s why I’d never set foot in a betting shop, but the assertion he doesn’t care is preposterous as his whole gig is predicated on right or wrong/win or loss.