Donald Trump

[Bruce Spanner]

Micheal Moore has said Trump will win, again, and handsomely.

 

I hope against hope he’s wrong, but he called it last time.

[Rico1304]

Evens now.  3/1 a week ago.  
 

The left always eats itself.  

[littletedwest]

No real dog for the left in that fight though

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

Imagine even suggesting that Biden is "the left." 

 

By 'eck! 

[Section_31]

Hoping this is true and Moore is just trying to guard against complacency. Sadly I think Black fellas getting killed and the resulting fallout has presented Trump with an issue to campaign on, like 'the wall'. Racism wrapped up in the cloke of order and security as opposed to the 'radical left' who will 'de fund the police'. 

 

If the cunt wins again though I'm gonna be beyond gutted, it's proper fall of civilisation shit. 

 

 

American historian Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted every U.S. presidential election winner since 1984, and this year he says Democratic nominee Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States.

"I am predicting, contrary to my 2016 predictions, that with seven keys out against him -- one more than is needed to predict his defeat -- Trump is going to lose this time," Lichtman told CTV's Your Morning on Thursday.

Lichtman was one of the only forecasters who predicted U.S. President Donald Trump's victory in 2016. At the time he also correctly predicted that Trump would be impeached.

"In 2016 I defied all the conventional wisdom and made myself very unpopular in 90 per cent plus Democratic Washington, D.C. by predicting a Trump victory," Lichtman said.

[sir roger]

1 hour ago, Nelly-Torres said:

Imagine even suggesting that Biden is "the left." 

 

By 'eck! 

You have to take into account that everybody else in Britain to the right of Rico works for a national newspaper.

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Bruce Spanner said:

Micheal Moore has said Trump will win, again, and handsomely.

 

I hope against hope he’s wrong, but he called it last time.

The US voting system is totally fucked. Hillary Clinton actually won more votes overall in the last election but because trump won more votes in the 'Battleground States', that resulted in his election. I don't know how that can be seen as representative of America that only certain states actually count. 

[Stickman]

That modern day Nostradamus, Dan Hodges is predicting a Trump defeat....

 

So that’s Biden fucked 

[Dougie Do'ins]

BBC News - Jacob Blake: Donald Trump to visit Kenosha amid unrest

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53962653

[Evelyn Tentions]

6 hours ago, Fluter in Dakota said:

The US voting system is totally fucked. Hillary Clinton actually won more votes overall in the last election but because trump won more votes in the 'Battleground States', that resulted in his election. I don't know how that can be seen as representative of America that only certain states actually count. 

There are some horrendous gerrymanders over there, nearly all Republican.

The degree of built in bias that the Republicans have managed is staggering.

[Anubis]

 

 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

He's a caricature of an obnoxious billionaire, but there are people without a pot to piss in who see him as their guy.

 

Racism will take you a long way, if you know how to use it. 

[Gnasher]

12 hours ago, Rico1304 said:

Evens now.  3/1 a week ago.  
 

The left always eats itself.  

I think the bookies got this about right, ie it's a lot closer than people think.

[Bruce Spanner]

6 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

I think the bookies got this about right, ie it's a lot closer than people think.

Or, the bookmakers have seen the current panic and are trying to make a profit from it as, we all know, bookmakers don’t want you to be right, they want you to throw money away.

 

 

[skend04]

The betting is at huge odds to the polling. Americans can't bet on it either so it's all overseas bettors. Moore is probably trying to rally the Democratic vote to ensure they go out and actually vote and not just rely on what the polls are saying.

[magicrat]

2 hours ago, skend04 said:

The betting is at huge odds to the polling. Americans can't bet on it either so it's all overseas bettors. Moore is probably trying to rally the Democratic vote to ensure they go out and actually vote and not just rely on what the polls are saying.

Yes it is, For those that can be arsed wading through the scenarios this article is good and shows Trump to be a much bigger dog than the betting odds.

 

https://www.newstatesman.com/international/2020/08/us-2020-presidential-election-forecast-model-will-donald-trump-or-joe-biden

[Moo]

2 hours ago, skend04 said:

The betting is at huge odds to the polling. Americans can't bet on it either so it's all overseas bettors. Moore is probably trying to rally the Democratic vote to ensure they go out and actually vote and not just rely on what the polls are saying.

I wondered that but it didn't work last time.  Voter apathy, or the assumption that someone like Trump can't possibly win, could be key again.

 

I don't just think he's playing up to the racist gallery either, patriarchy also goes a long way too.

 

[TheHowieLama]

2 hours ago, skend04 said:

The betting is at huge odds to the polling. Americans can't bet on it either so it's all overseas bettors. Moore is probably trying to rally the Democratic vote to ensure they go out and actually vote and not just rely on what the polls are saying.

Long time left in this race. So yeah, trying to keep the sense of urgency that was apparent after Floyd everyday for the next couple months is going to be difficult.

[Section_31]

19 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Long time left in this race. So yeah, trying to keep the sense of urgency that was apparent after Floyd everyday for the next couple months is going to be difficult.

I think Biden faces the same battle as Starmer to an extent, trying to create a broad coalition of voters is getting harder because everyone is so polarised. 

 

He'll be getting shit from Republicans and shit from progressives, trying to make the latter realise that Bernie isn't on the ballot paper is essential, and that it's surely better to have Biden in there than to just spend the next four years tweeting and protesting about Trump.

 

Feels like the art of compromise is being lost, and compromise is necessary in a two party state, unless you have a party for every conceivable viewpoint.

[dockers_strike]

11 hours ago, Fluter in Dakota said:

The US voting system is totally fucked. Hillary Clinton actually won more votes overall in the last election but because trump won more votes in the 'Battleground States', that resulted in his election. I don't know how that can be seen as representative of America that only certain states actually count. 

It is a weird system. To us at least. The US President isnt elected by direct, popular vote. People vote for their candidate in each state. Each State has a number of 'votes' in the Electoral College based on how populous each state is. More people in a State, the more votes in the college that State has.

 

The Electoral College isnt bound to allocate votes to the winning candidate as voted by a State but normally does. I think the last time they didnt was some time in the 1800's.

 

That said, even in the UK, a party can have the most candidates returned and form a Government on fewer votes than the main opposition party got due to variation in the size of some constituencies.

[TheHowieLama]

14 minutes ago, dockers_strike said:

 

The Electoral College isnt bound to allocate votes to the winning candidate as voted by a State but normally does. I think the last time they didnt was some time in the 1800's.

 

It happened in the last election.

[TheHowieLama]

21 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

Feels like the art of compromise is being lost, and compromise is necessary in a two party state, unless you have a party for every conceivable viewpoint.

One thing Biden can show is a history of working across the aisle - not all of it good but still - actually doing it.

Trump is not only unwilling to, he is unable to.

[niallers]

It's also fucking crazy the way they have  2 senators for every state instead of by population size. California has 2 and so does both dakotas. California has 40 million whereas North and south dak have under a million each.

Moscow mitch has way too much power in the Senate as the smaller populated central states are usually republican and per person, those states have way way too much leverage. 

[TheHowieLama]

Alot of this bullshit would go away by introducing term limits. I don't for one second believe that the Founding Fathers foresaw someone spending their entire life in Congress.

[Section_31]

Would be a proper doss being a Republican senator, I'd fucking love it. Senator for Kentucky or some shit, I'd wear a suit but with a big fuck off cowboy belt buckle and a christian fish pin badge on my lapel. Absolute job for life.

 

"Senator why haven't you been to any meetings for the last four years?"

 

"Because communism."

 

"What a guy."