Queen Bee at 73

[The Woolster]

I saw on SSN that in the the first two seasons under Rodgers we got 2.50 points per game and this season we are also going at around 2.50 as well.

 

I think they were talking 2nd half of the seasons only, as 2.5 points a game over a season is 95 points.

 

We are on 2.5 per game since game 20 (2.6 since game 18), and we got 2.53 in the 2nd half of last season. The 2ndhalf of his first season was 1.9 per game though

[setreal]

No, I dropped it to 71 in the update before this one

Find a pun for 71?

[Guest LFD]

I think they were talking 2nd half of the seasons only, as 2.5 points a game over a season is 95 points.

 

We are on 2.5 per game since game 20 (2.6 since game 18), and we got 2.53 in the 2nd half of last season. The 2ndhalf of his first season was 1.9 per game though

 

Yes.  I meant second half of the season.

 

Shows it here - https://twitter.com/NateGuildea/status/572113925778616320

[The Woolster]

Find a pun for 71?

 

Found one, its Bang on the Drum to 71.

 

[The Woolster]

Yes. I meant second half of the season.

 

Shows it here - https://twitter.com/NateGuildea/status/572113925778616320

Well, Sky fucked up their 2012/13 numbers.

 

If they want stats, they should come to me. ..

[The Woolster]

Following the win against Burnley
 
Bang the Drum Update
 
Method 1: What we should get against each team: -2 
 
A win was par, so we remain 2 points behind the target.

Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: -3
 
We won the corresponding game against Fulham last season, we remain 3 points behind the 71 point target having dropped 16 points overall.
 
Method 3: This stage last season: +5
 
Last season we were on 59 points after 28 games, so we remain 8 points down but 5 points ahead of our target.
 
This means that from the last 38 games, we have scored 76 points

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -1.3

51 points from 28 games is 1.82 points per game, and we would be on 52.3 points if we were going at the required rate of 1.87 point per game.
 
From the 10 matches remaining we need 20 points, which is 2.0 points per game.
 
If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 69.2 points
 
Next Game
 
Away to Swansea means that a draw is par. we also drew this game last season.
 

[The Woolster]

Top of the Shop table

 

Chelsea gain another couple of points winning away to West Ham

 

Che: +4

City: -6

 

Bang the Drum Table

 

Everyone won, only Chelsea and Utd gain a couple of points from winning par 1 away games. Utd leapfrog Southampton and Spurs. Utd's next 5 games have a par score of 4 points, so anything significantly above that will put them in a good position.

 

Che: +15

City: +7

Arse: +2

Liv: -2

Utd: -3

South: -4

Spurs: -4

 

 

Match Comparison Table

 

Every team had the same result as last season, so no changes.

 

Che: 89 (+7)

City: 88 (+2)

Arse: 77 (-2)

Spurs: 74 (+5)

Liv: 68 (-16)

Utd: 65 (+1)

South: 57 (+1)

 

 

Last 38 Games Table

 

Whilst I am adding this up for us, I'm getting all the other teams scores from here, http://www.thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/ , so am relying on it to be updated correctly

 

Che: 85 (+3)

City: 81 (-5)

Liv: 76 (-8)

Arse: 74 (-5)

Utd: 69 (+5)

Spurs: 66 (-3)

South: 66 (+10)

[The Woolster]

Following the win against Swansea

 

Bang the Drum Update

 

Method 1: What we should get against each team: Level

 

A draw was par, so we go level on points to hit the target. This is the first time by this method since I started the thread I believe.

 

Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: -1

 

We drew this game last season, so we go to just 1 point behind the target having dropped 15 points overall.

 

Method 3: This stage last season: +5

 

Last season we were on 62 points after 29 games, so we remain 8 points down but 5 points ahead of our target.

 

This means that from the last 38 games, we have scored 76 points

 

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -0.2

 

54 points from 29 games is 1.86 points per game, and we would be on 54.2 points if we were going at the required rate of 1.87 point per game.

 

From the 9 matches remaining we need 17 points, which is 1.89 points per game.

 

If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 70.8 points

 

Next Game

 

Home to Utd means that a draw is par, it is not a must win game, although I am sure we will hear that plenty over the coming week. We won this game last season.

[Jose Jones]

Do you reckon 73 is back to being closer to the target now? Mancs and Arse going well along with us.

[The Woolster]

Top of the Shop table

 

I've seen a few Arsenal fans claim they have an outside chacne of the title. Its so far outside it would take them a day to get back indoors.

 

Che: +2

City: -9

Arsenal: -10

 

Bang the Drum Table

 

Only team to score at par was Chelsea. Us, Arsenal and Utd all gained 2 points, and with City dropping 3 points, the race for 2nd is on. Southampton gained 1 point drawing at Chelsea whilst Spurs dropped 1 point losing away to Utd.

 

Che: +15

City: +4

Arse: +4

Liv: Level

Utd: -1

South: -3

Spurs: -5

 

 

Match Comparison Table

 

For this one only Arsenal didn't change. City and Spurs dropped 3 points, Chelsea dropped 2. Southampton gained 1, we gained 2 and Utd gained 3. By this method it looks tight for 4th.

 

Che: 87 (+5)

City: 85 (-1)

Arse: 77 (-2)

Spurs: 71 (+2)

Liv: 70 (-14)

Utd: 68 (+4)

South: 58 (+2)

 

 

Last 38 Games Table

 

Whilst I am adding this up for us, I'm getting all the other teams scores from here, http://www.thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/ , so am relying on it to be updated correctly

 

Che: 83 (+1)

City: 78 (-8)

Liv: 76 (-8)

Arse: 74 (-5)

Utd: 72 (+8)

Spurs: 66 (-3)

South: 64 (+8)

[lebron]

Do you reckon 73 is back to being closer to the target now? Mancs and Arse going well along with us.

 

I thought about this too, but several of the top 7 sides are facing each other over the coming weeks, so someone is bound to drop points...

[The Woolster]

 

Do you reckon 73 is back to being closer to the target now? Mancs and Arse going well along with us.

 

In such a short space of games, anything is possible, but I really don't rate Utd so still think 71 might be enough. As it stands only 3 teams are actually above the target anyway.

 

Thing is, Utd have got 3 par zero games left, if they get anyhting at all from those games, especially a win, then they could well be on for 71+, then they have 2 par 1 games on top, Arsenal at home and Everton away, and they could well pick up a win in them.

 

Perhaps due to goal difference, our target is infact 73/72, whilst theirs is 72/71?

[Razoray]

I think that we'd be very lucky if the mancs only get 4 wins and 14 points from their 9 remaining games.

[The Woolster]

Its all relative though anyway, if the target is 71, were are 'on target' and Utd are 1 behind target. If the target is 73 were are 2 behind and Utd are 3 behind.

But here are Utds remaining matches and their par scores

Liv (a) - 0
Villa (h) - 3
City (h) - 0
Chelsea (a) - 0
Eve (a) - 1
WBA (h) - 3
Palace (a) - 3
Arse (h) - 1
Hull (a) - 3

 

I think they could well pick up some points against 1 or 2 of the stronger teams, but equally, I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop points to someone like Palace or West Brom.

 

Are remaining games are

 

Utd (h) - 1

Arse (a) - 0

New (h) - 3

Hull (a) - 3

WBA (a) - 3

QPR (h) - 3

Che (a) - 0

Palace (h) - 3

Stoke (a) - 1

 

I think we should hopefully pick up some points against one of Utd, Arsenal or Stoke, and of our 3 pointers West Brom looks like the biggest banana skin.

[Babb'sBurstNad]

It's going to be very tight.

 

I wouldn't put it past them to get points against City. It's looking like GD could be a factor.

[The Woolster]

Sigh...

Following the loss against them
 
Bang the Drum Update
 
Method 1: What we should get against each team: -1
 
A draw was par, so we go drop 1 point behind target.

Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: -4

 
We won this game last season, so we drop to just 4 points behind the target having dropped 17 points overall.
 
Method 3: This stage last season: +3
 
Last season we were on 65 points after 30 games, so we go to 11 points down and drop to 3 points ahead of target.
 
This means that from the last 38 games, we have scored 73 points

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -2.1

54 points from 30 games is 1.80 points per game, and we would be on 56.1 points if we were going at the required rate of 1.87 point per game.
 
From the 8 matches remaining we need 17 points, which is 2.13 points per game.
 
If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 68.4 points
 
Next Game
 
Away to Arsenal means that a loss is par. We lost this game last season 

[The Woolster]

Top of the Shop table

 

Che: +2

Arsenal: -8

City: -9

 

Bang the Drum Table

 

We dropped the 1 point, but unfortunately Utd gained 3. Arsenal's win away to Newcastle sees tham leapfrog City in both tables. All other results scored at par.

 

By this method we are only the 3 behind Utd, still plenty to play for. Anyone claiming it is already over is a fanny.

 

Che: +15

Arse: +6

City: +4

Utd: +2

Liv: -1

South: -3

Spurs: -5

 

 

Match Comparison Table

 

Only change was our game, we dropped 3 points, so Utd gained 3

 

Che: 87 (+5)

City: 85 (-1)

Arse: 77 (-2)

Spurs: 71 (+2)

Utd: 71 (+7)

Liv: 67 (-17)

South: 58 (+2)

 

 

Last 38 Games Table

 

Whilst I am adding this up for us, I'm getting all the other teams scores from here, http://www.thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/ , so am relying on it to be updated correctly

 

Think I mentioned only a few weeks ago that due to our respective finishes last season that a big gap between us and Arsenal could change very quickly

 

Che: 83 (+1)

City: 78 (-8)

Arse: 77 (-2)

Liv: 73 (-11)

Utd: 72 (+8)

Spurs: 69 (level)

South: 64 (+8)

[G Richards]

Thanks for updates Woolster, much appreciated. 

 

As I think about it at this stage, I'm not so sure 73 will be enough for top four. Man Utd already have 59 points and 24 to play for. Even if they lose their three hardest games (Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City) and win the other five that will be 74 points. 

 

The way they are playing now, having got good wins against Spurs and us, makes me think they will get something against one or more of Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City. Obviously they can slip up against one of the other five, but now that they've got the bit between their teeth it's hard to see 73 points being enough. 

 

From our end six wins and two draws will give us 74 points. That might be enough, but goal difference will count against us. We fight on, but I'm gutted about yesterday. Can't stand them!

[The Woolster]

Thanks and no worries!

 

I can change the target score, but it actually makes very little difference. Its a 2 way process, so to change the target score I would need to change one of the par scores. The one I would change would be home to West Ham from draw to win (their form has crashed since I changed their rating, one of the reasons I don't ike to do it).

 

Essentially every team that I cover would have their score versus par drop by 2 points apart from City who haven't played them at home yet. A teams par score relative to target is what is important, not so much the target itself

[G Richards]

Makes sense, thanks

[an tha]

Gonna need 75 minimum I reckon or 7 wins out of 8.....unlikely

[The Woolster]

 
Following the loss against Arsenal
 
Bang the Drum Update
 
Method 1: What we should get against each team: -1
 
A loss was par, so we remain 1 point behind target.

Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: -4

We lost this game last season, so we stay 4 points behind the target having dropped 17 points overall.
 
Method 3: This stage last season: -1
 
Last season we were on 68 points after 31 games, so we go to 20 points down and drop to 1 point behind target.
 
This means that from the last 38 games, we have scored 70 points

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -3.9

54 points from 31 games is 1.74 points per game, and we would be on 57.9 points if we were going at the required rate of 1.87 point per game.
 
From the 7 matches remaining we need 17 points, which is 2.43 points per game.
 
If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 66.2 points
 
Next Game
 
Home to Newcastle means that a win is par. We won this game last season
 

[The Woolster]

Top of the Shop table

 

After City's loss its gone from a 1 horse race to a 1 horse race...

 

Che: +2

Arsenal: -8

 

Bang the Drum Table

 

We scored at par but Arsenal gained 2. City dropped 3 points, Spurs dropped the 2 whilst Southampton dropped 1.

 

The table below is based on the 71 point target, if I changed the target to 73 by changing their difficulty back to par 3, everyone drops by 2 points apart from City.

 

Despite the disappointing result at the weekend, we are still not out of the race.

 

Che: +15

Arse: +8

Utd: +2

City: +1

Liv: -1

South: -4

Spurs: -7

 

 

Match Comparison Table

 

City dropped 3 points and Spurs dropped 2, the other results were the same

 

Che: 87 (+5)

City: 82 (-4)

Arse: 77 (-2)

Utd: 71 (+7)

Spurs: 69 (level)

Liv: 67 (-17)

South: 58 (+2)

 

 

Last 38 Games Table

 

Whilst I am adding this up for us, I'm getting all the other teams scores from here, http://www.thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/ , so am relying on it to be updated correctly

 

Che: 86 (+4)

Arse: 79 (level)

City: 77 (-9)

Utd: 75 (+10)

Liv: 70 (-14)

Spurs: 67 (-2)

South: 64 (+8)

[ZonkoVille77]

Despite the disappointing result at the weekend, we are still not out of the race.

 

 

Get in!!!

 

Yea right, we're fucked...

[an tha]

We could end up with 75 and it not being enough.

 

I don't think we will get 75 but I do think that 75 won't be enough