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Rafa Exclusive in The Times


Randy Marsh
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It determines about 90% of the League finishing position on a blind basis (ie/ if you know the rank in terms of team A,B etc & nothing else your prediction of their final finishing position will be 90% correct)

 

That is statistically correct, whether or not it makes you vomit.

 

That means that everything else is responsible for 10%. That is mainly luck, home advantage thru fans & a manager's ability to get the best out of those set of players & sign bargains/not sign duds as you write.

 

Of course, it is inferior to a salary cap league like the NFL.

Of course, i would like it to be changed.

But it doesn't do any good when you are comparing managers & most especially their transfer record to ignore it.

city should be 10 points clear then
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city should be 10 points clear then

You know, what he's saying is really simple to understand, why to nitwits like yourself and tomR have to twist it in order to make a point? City have had to pay far more to likes of Adebayor, Tevez & Barry in order to get them to sign than the likes of Chelsea or the Mancs would have. Catch is not saying that a higher wage bill will win you things, he's just pointing out that better players usually earn more, therefore if you have a higher wage bill chances are its because you have a better squad and therefore it's much more likely that you'll win trophies.

 

I can't be arsed looking through this thread but I'm pretty sure TomR said we should just give everyone a 50k rise, that we'd walk the league than, way to miss the point there genius. First of all even if we did want to give everyone that raise we wouldn't be able to afford it, I mean we're looking at selling players just to give 1 player a new contract. Secondly, better players = higher wage bill & better players = more chance of a trophy, therefore higher wage bill = more chance of winning trophies. Geddit.

 

edit: We don't know that City have the highest wage bill yet either, Chelsea's is monstrous, the likes of Ballack, Lampard, Drogba, Terry and Deco cost them a fucking bomb.

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You know, what he's saying is really simple to understand, why to nitwits like yourself and tomR have to twist it in order to make a point? City have had to pay far more to likes of Adebayor, Tevez & Barry in order to get them to sign than the likes of Chelsea or the Mancs would have. Catch is not saying that a higher wage bill will win you things, he's just pointing out that better players usually earn more, therefore if you have a higher wage bill chances are its because you have a better squad and therefore it's much more likely that you'll win trophies.

 

I can't be arsed looking through this thread but I'm pretty sure TomR said we should just give everyone a 50k rise, that we'd walk the league than, way to miss the point there genius. First of all even if we did want to give everyone that raise we wouldn't be able to afford it, I mean we're looking at selling players just to give 1 player a new contract. Secondly, better players = higher wage bill & better players = more chance of a trophy, therefore higher wage bill = more chance of winning trophies. Geddit.

 

edit: We don't know that City have the highest wage bill yet either, Chelsea's is monstrous, the likes of Ballack, Lampard, Drogba, Terry and Deco cost them a fucking bomb.

 

 

 

Nail on head when you say MORE CHANCE however its not the only factor but over a given period of time Catch 22 is right but there are other factors such as team manager and team work ethic. We over performed last season by Catch analysis but it was fairly clear any team that has Reina, Gerrard, Alonso, Mascher & Torres in it is going to have a pretty good chance of making a title challenge.

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Nail on head when you say MORE CHANCE however its not the only factor but over a given period of time Catch 22 is right but there are other factors such as team manager and team work ethic. We over performed last season by Catch analysis but it was fairly clear any team that has Reina, Gerrard, Alonso, Mascher & Torres in it is going to have a pretty good chance of making a title challenge.

Yes, but thats sort of the point, we can afford a good first 11, just don't expect too much beyond that because it's not financially viable. Having the likes of Dossena, Voronin and Babel on the wage bill certainly doesn't help us, but you can't expect a manager not to make mistakes in the transfer market, every one of the does, the difference being that we can't afford those mistakes.

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The exuses are getting worse by the minute, his judgement of both playes ability and his talk about the PL has me worried as well.

 

Your judgment of players ability has me worried but I daren't tell you because you will neg me in private like you neg anyone who questions your judgment in open debate on the forum.

 

 

(I'm not actually worried about your ability - that was just a rhetorical flourish).

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The exuses are getting worse by the minute, his judgement of both playes ability and his talk about the PL has me worried as well.

Fuck off Code, look up the word reason in the dictionary, then look up excuse, two completely different meanings. I do agree about the interviews he's giving though, I want the old Rafa back, the one who didn't give a flying fuck what anyone in the media thought of him, this newer, more precious Rafa has me worried.

 

Reina

Johnon

Agger

Aurelio

Mascherano

Alonso

Benayoun

Torres

 

Yes, he' shit at spotting good players he is.

 

I'm pretty sure Aquilani will be added to that list soon, but he obviously hasn't done anything to merit inclusion yet.

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Fuck off Code, look up the word reason in the dictionary, then look up excuse, two completely different meanings. I do agree about the interviews he's giving though, I want the old Rafa back, the one who didn't give a flying fuck what anyone in the media thought of him, this newer, more precious Rafa has me worried.

 

Reina

Johnon

Agger

Aurelio

Mascherano

Alonso

Benayoun

Torres

 

Yes, he' shit at spotting good players he is.

 

I'm pretty sure Aquilani will be added to that list soon, but he obviously hasn't done anything to merit inclusion yet.

 

In fairness, neither has Johnon....

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This was posted by BHB on the rattle and RAWK, and has been linked on many sites and even in newspapers. All the people who doubt the manager, question his transfer record, hate him like you'd hate someone who murdered your kids as seems the case with many on here, have a read of these FACTS.

 

In order to try and dispell a few media fuelled myths that sections of our fanbase seem to have swollowed; here's the full list of players he's signed since he's been at the club (please read the summary below):

 

2004/05

 

£2m - Josemi: peanuts and was moved on in a swap for Kromkamp 18 months later

£1.5m - Antonio Nunez: part of the Michael Owen deal and filled a gap for a while. Peanuts.

£10.7m - Xabi Alonso: Massive success and sold for £30m+ in the summer when he wanted to leave

£6m - Luis Garcia: Massive success and sold to Athletico Madrid for £4m

Free - Pelligrino: Stop gap that allowed us to rest Sami for league games, benefitting us massively in Istanbul. Now on the coaching staff.

£6.3m - Fernando Morientes: Pretty much everyone made up when we signed him, top class, but never settled. Sold for £3m to Valencia.

£1m - Scott Carson: One the most highly rated young keepers around. Lost out through injury and signing of Reina when Dudek left the club. Sold for £3.25m.

 

Total bought: £27.5m

 

Free - Marcus Babbel: Released to Stuttgart at the end of his career.

£2.5m - Danny Murphy: Xabi Alonso signed to fill the role Murphy had in the side

£8.5m - Michael Owen: Wouldn't sign a new contract and sold before he left on a free. He's done nothing since that is a masterstroke with hindsight.

Free - Stephane Henchoz: Released to Celtic at the end of his career

 

Total sold: £11m

 

A total of £16.5m net spend in his first year at the club, with the vast majority of that being spent on Xabi Alonso.

 

2004/05 net spend: £16.5m

 

2005/06

 

£240,000 - Antonio Barragan: Kid for the future. Sold for £675,000 to Deportivo a year later.

Free - Boudewijn Zenden: Signed for nothing and released for nothing. Did a job for us.

£6m - Pepe Reina: In the top 3 or 4 keepers in the world now and still young. One of Rafa's best signings.

£5.6m - Momo Sissoko: Brilliant for a few years, had that eye injury and sold to Juventus when his form dipped for £8.2m. Replaced by Mascherano.

£7m - Peter Crouch: One signing I did question but proved to be a great bit of business. Turned him from a laughing stock into an international. Sold for £11m.

Unkown - Miki Roque: Kid bought for peanuts. Sold again for an unknown amount.

£150,000 - Jack Hobbs: Highly rated 16yr old signed from Lincoln. Didn't progress as hoped and sold to Leicester for a reported £1.5m, although figure not confirmed.

£190,000 Besian Idrizaj: No idea who he is

£1.5m - Mark Gonzales: Cheap player to provide back up for the left wing. Sold for £3.5m to Real Betis.

Exchange - Paul Anderson: Swapped for John Welsh. Sold for £250,000.

Exchange - Jan Kromkamp: Swapped for Josemi. Later sold for £1.75m

£5.8m - Daniel Agger: Blighted by injuries but potentially top class and great signing for the money.

£250,000 - David Martin: Young reserve keeper

Free - Robbie Fowler: Pay as you play deal and no risk involved. Scored a few goals. Released in the summer.

 

Total bought: £26.73

 

Free - Vladimir Smicer: Out of contract and released. Played a small part in Istanbul.

£3.5m - El Hadji Diouf: The best £3.5m Rafa has ever recieved.

Free - Pellegrino: Filled the gap in the last 5 months of the previous season, not good enough and released.

£2m - Alou Diarra: Sold for £2m. One of Houllier's buys.

£2m - Antonio Nunez: Bought for £1.5m and now sold for £2m when didn't work out.

£6.5m - Milan Baros: A Houllier signing sold at a profit. He's done nothing since.

Exchange - John Welsh: Swapped for Paul Anderson

Exchange - Josemi: Swapped for Kronkamp.

 

Total sold: £14m

 

2005/06 net spend: £12.73m

2006/07

 

£6m - Craig Bellamy: Good signing and later sold for £7.5m to fund Torres deal.

£2m - Gabriel Palletta: Played a few league cup games, not good enough and sold for £1.2m

Free - Fabio Aurelio: Very injury prone but a good player when fit. Great signing for nothing.

£6.7m - Jermaine Pennant: Second choice after missing out on Alves. Ran his contract down and released. Attitude stank.

£9m - Dirk Kuyt: Has his critics, but has been brilliant for the money. 15 goals last season from wide and vital to the way we play. Ultimate pro. Great signing.

£200,000 - Nabil El Zhar: Few cameos last season and improving. Injured now. Promising still. Peanuts.

£750,000 - Astrit Ajdarevic: No idea who he is, and released on a free to Leicester.

Loan - Daniele Padelli: Reserve keeper, made one appearance and never seen again.

Undisclosed - Jordy Brouwer: Young reserve.

£2.5m - Alvaro Arbeloa: Bargain signing, great service for a few years and sold for £3.5m when running his contract down.

Loan - Javier Mascherano: Rescued from West Ham, now one of the best defensive midfielders in the world and will probably be sold to Barca this summer for a massive profit. Paid £18.6m for him a year later at end of loan deal.

 

Total bought: £27.15m

 

£200,000 - Zak Whitbread: Youngster

Undisclosed - Bruno Cheyrou: Houllier flopped, sold for a reported £1.5m.

£3m - Fernando Morientes: Didn't work out. Cut his losses.

Free - Didi Hamann: Great servant, released at the end of his career

£675,000 - Antonio Barragan: Paid £240,000 for him.

£2m - Djimi Traore: Houllier signing and daylight robbery getting £2m for him

£500,000 - Neil Mellor: Signed as a kid and did a job for a while. Not good enough and released.

£1.75m - Jan Kromkamp: Nunez bought for £2m, swapped for him, who then sold for £1.75m. Stop gaps at minimal expense.

£525,000 - Darren Potter: Acadamy lad, not good enough and robbery getting that much for him.

£1.5m - Steven Warnock: Probably sold to cheap and looks a mistake with hindsight. Good squad player.

Free - Salif Diao: The clearout of Houllier's flops continues.

 

Total sold: £10.15m

 

2006/07 net spend: £17m

 

2007/08

 

 

£5m - Lucas Leiva: Brazilian player of the year when signed. Could still go either way but a lot to prove.

Undisclosed - Krisztian Nemeth: Promising youngster currently out on loan in Athens.

£270,000 - Mikel San Jose Dominguez: Youngester plays in the reserves.

£1.8m - Sebastian Leto: Left winger signing but refused a work permit. Sold for £3m.

£20.2m - Fernando Torres: Bargain of the century

Free - Andriy Voronin: Free transfer to strengthen the squad. Plays well in Germany, garbage over here.

£5m - Yossi Benayoun: Took a while to settle but now a key player. Superb signing and an absolute bargain.

£11.5m - Ryan Babel: Highly rated dutch international. Absolute waste of space. Bad signing on reflection, but nobody knew how he'd turn out. Still got potential but he can't be arsed.

Undisclosed - Charles Itandje: Back up keeper signed for peanuts. Now released.

£1.3m - Emiliano Insua: Youngster who is now a full Argentinian international and massive potential. Bargain.

£6.5m - Martin Skrtel: Been off form this season so far, but brilliant last year and a good signing for the money.

£18.6m - Javier Mascherano: Completion of loan deal

 

Total bought: £70.7m

 

£2.7m – Florent Simana-Pongolle: Houllier youngster sold wanting first team football.

£100,000 – Daniel O’Donnell: Kid sold

Free – Jerzy Dudek: Released at end of contract

Free - Zenden: Released at end of contract

Free – Robbie Fowler: Released at end of contract

£4m – Luis Garcia: Wanted to return to Spain. Great service.

£6m – Djibril Cisse: Houllier signing sold to part fund Torres deal.

£7.5m – Craig Bellamy: Sold at profit to part fund Torres deal

£3.5m – Mark Gonzales: Signed for £1.5m and sold when didn’t work out.

£1.2m – Gabriel Palletta: Bought for £2m but never worked out. Young defender.

£3.5m – Chris Kirkland: Houllier signing. Injury prone and wanted first team football.

£8.2m – Momo Sissoko: Great signing, good service, sold when lost his form at a profit.

 

Total sold: £36.7m

 

2007/08 net spend: £34m

 

2008/09

 

Free – Philip Degen: Garbage, but free.

£7m - Andrea Dossena: Italian international left back. Hasn’t settled. Bad signing.

£3.5m – Diego Cavalieri: Reserve keeper. Only played league cup games so far.

£1.5m – David N’gog: Young French striker. Promising.

£19m – Robbie Keane: Everyone made up when we signed him. Didn’t work out and sold back to Spurs for £16m.

£8m - Albert Riera: Spanish international. Started well but jury still out.

 

Total bought: £39m

 

£4m – John Arne Riise: Good servant but form tailed off. Snapped their hands off at £4m.

Free – Harry Kewell: Harry who?

Undisclosed – Anthony Le Tallec: Houllier youngster finally released. Fee not known.

£11m – Peter Crouch: Laughing stock bought for £7m. Great signing. Wanted first team football.

£2.25m – Danny Guthrie: Youngster from Acadamy thought not good enough.

£3.25m – Scott Carson: Injury prone and Reina now first choice. Sold at profit.

Undisclosed – Steve Finnan: Sold for a fee believed to be £1m

£16m – Robbie Keane: Didn’t work out.

Undisclosed – Jack Hobbs: Young defender that didn’t progress. Sold for believed to £1.5m.

 

Total sold: £36.5m

 

2008/09 net spend: £2.5m

 

 

2009/10

 

£17.5m – Glen Johnson: Big fee, but has been brilliant so far.

£17.1m - Alberto Aquilani: Injured so far but meant to be a class act. Highly rated in Italy.

£2m – Sotirios Kyrgiakos: Last minute signing to fill Hyypia’s shoes. Only money we had to spend.

£160,000 – Daniel Ayala: Young defender, played a few times this season and looked promising.

 

Total bought: £36.76m

 

£250,000 – Paul Anderson: Youngster that didn’t progess.

Free – Jermaine Pennant: Out of contract. Poor signing.

Free – Miki Roque: No idea who he is. Bought for peanuts.

£3m – Sebastian Leto: Signed for £1.8m but didn’t get a work permit. Had to sell.

£3.5m – Alvaro Arbeloa: Wanted to leave and out of contract in the summer.

£30m – Xabi Alonso: Wanted to leave. Bought for £10.7m. Great signing.

 

Total sold: £36.75m

 

2009/10 net spend: £10,000

 

 

Total Players Bought: £228,976,000

Total Players Sold: £145,100,000

 

Total Net Spend: £83,876,000

 

 

So, that’s a total spend of just over £83m in 5 years at the club. An average of £16.6m a year.

 

The vast majority of his signings have been sold at profit, or if still at the club, are worth a lot more than we paid for them. Exceptions being Babel and Dossena, but we’ll still get decent fees for them when sold as they’re full internationals.

 

A lot of the signings above have been stepping stones in rebuilding the squad, gradually improving it by replacing players with better ones. Our league positions over the past 5 years and the improvement in our league positions and points totals show the progression.

 

2004/05: Finished 5th – 58 pts

2005/06: Finished 3rd – 82 pts

2006/07: Finished 3rd – 68 pts

2007/08: Finished 4th – 76 pts

2008/09: Finished 2nd – 86 pts

 

Is it any coincidence that the progression seems to have stopped this summer? Look at the transfer activity above for this year and it might explain why.

 

We have a wage bill that is the 5th highest in the league. We can’t afford to pay players £70,000 to be sat on the bench like United and Chelsea can.

 

Rafa Benitez’ record with signings at the top end of the market is nothing short of brilliant. Robbie Keane being the only flop, but he was sold 6 months later and only a small financial hit taken on that mistake. Rick Parry agreed the fee for buying him in the first place, and common knowledge Rafa wasn’t happy with it; feeling it was far too high.

 

Where has this myth come from that he’s wasted money on shite players? Have a look through the lists above and try to point them out. There isn’t many.

 

The ones that haven’t worked out he’s moved on, and not very often has he made a financial loss on them.

 

The squad is now worth a hell of a lot more than the one he inherited, and that £83m net spend over 5 years is easily offset by the increased value of the squad. He’d recoup nearly all of that through the sale of Torres alone!

 

He’s worked absolute wonders with the money he’s had to spend. Then take into account the massive amounts of money he’s self generated by reaching the latter stages of the CL every season. Two final appearances, one win. That £83m he’s spent he’s earned the right to spend.

 

And when comparing it to what United have spent in the same period is flawed, as they already had a title winning squad and all the foundations in place. They weren’t rebuilding from scratch like we were. It also doesn’t take into account their massive wage bill.

 

When comparing to Chelsea, they spent all their money before Rafa came to the club and just topping up an already established squad.

 

Man City have spent more than double in the past 12 months than Rafa Benitez has in his 5 year reign.

 

Do some people still want to get rid of him? If so, you’ve been listening to Martin Tyler's Monkey and the hairy-handed halfwit for too much and unable to look at the facts yourself to form an opinion.

 

Every manager makes tactical mistakes. Every manager makes mistakes in the transfer market. Despite what the press seem to think; Rafael Benitez appears to make less mistakes than most.

 

We’re expected to win the league and European Cup on a budget and wage bill that is entitled to finish 4th or 5th in the league. We’ve been overachieving under Rafael Benitez, not underachieving.

 

I’m not even going to mention the environment he’s working in under them two clowns.

 

You’ll only miss him when he’s gone….

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Net spend has got me pulling the head off it

I don't get the whole 'net spend sucks donkey bollocks' thing to be honest, it's obviously relevant as we aren't rich enough to be able to improve the squad at once in 1-2 seasons, we have to do it incrementally over a couple of seasons, thats why all the wheeling and dealing in the transfer market is necessary. It does get brought up quite a bit, but its only going to get worse as we have to sell more players to stay afloat and finance contract extensions.

 

I was just thinking about all of this on the way to work the other day, and I realised that as much as I dislike the two cunts who're running us into the ground, the one person whom I absolutely fucking detest more than anyone else is Moores, he had to know what was going to happen, the least you can do before deciding to fuck us off would be to google the prospective buyers surely?

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Your judgment of players ability has me worried but I daren't tell you because you will neg me in private like you neg anyone who questions your judgment in open debate on the forum.

 

 

(I'm not actually worried about your ability - that was just a rhetorical flourish).

 

Diego I negged you for your suggestion that I was jealous of Rafa, because it was childish and laughable so I just tried to lower myself to your level, I also explained it to you in a PM.

 

It had nothing to do with an disagreement at all, I only read the first paragraph anyway because when you start a post like that I could not really give a flying fuck about he rest, less abuse - better arguments.

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Just to entertain you for a moment Catch.

 

How much of a pay rise did Kuyt get in the summer? Did we need to give him that? Would we have been worse off if he was sold and another player brought in?

 

Would you have offered Benayoun a pay rise instead of keeping Alonso?

 

Did we need to bring in Degen last summer?

 

Do we need to have 3 choices for left back, we have other players who can play in the position as well.

 

How many reserve goalies do we need? Itandje, Cavalieri, did we really need to spend money on these players both transfers and wages?

 

Then at last, Kyrigiakos, did we really need to spend money on him, again both a transfer and wages.

 

Why not let Voronin go when we had clubs in for him, we had saved wages and would have got a tarnsfer fee as well if we lowered our price?

 

We could easily have afforded Alonso from a money persepctive, but Rafa chose not to for other reasons as we all know.

 

 

Sorry i didn't see this as i was out last night.

 

The reason we couldn't have afforded to keep Alonso is the increase is not just an extra £110k/wk to him: Torres & Gerrard would also have had to have their wages increased as well.

 

There is no way a club with our budgetary constarints can afford to pay 3 players £190k/wk.

 

I am not calling Xabi a "greedy bastard" by saying that he moved for money- it is not greedy to want more cash, but natural & healthy- this is not NKorea.

You are effectively calling him childish & naive by saying that he didn't

If anyone of us gets offered double money at a comparable firm then we move.

 

Wenger predicted that the 3 big PL clubs which run to budget would lose players because of the tax/FX issue in April.

That is exactly what happened: If we saw an Arse or Manc fan blaming their departures on some childish soap opera we would regard them as deluded & that is what anyone would think of any Lfc fan suggesting that Xabi left for anyother reason that what drives 30m people every day in this country to get up & go to work & not the golf course: money.

 

Finally, you highlight Rafa's errors & ignore his good signings.

As all managers make both (even Paisley signed David Hodgson!), the only way to judge them is to look at their whole portfolio of signings & compare it with their peer group.

Rafa has passed that test as he has constantly beaten our budget ranking, which no other LFc has done for a generation on average.

Now that may mean that all the big 4 managers in England are shit but that doesn't really make much sense.

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Someone intelligently pointing out the flaws in your mindless prejudiced nonsense

 

There is no factual error in what i wrote.

If you see one in it then point it out

 

Perhaps you should shout & swear a bit more; maybe use capitals?

 

I was talking to Code on a public forum. We couldn't afford Alves.

 

Perhaps you could have been in charge of the negotiating. Maybe by shouting at Del Nido & writing FACT he would have given in?

 

There is no factual error in what you wrote? How the fuck do you know?

 

You have no idea why Alonso left. You have no idea how much he is earning at Madrid. You have no idea if Benitez wanted to sell him.

 

Stop purporting your opinions as fact. It's really fucking tedious.

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Benitez will be hoping several of his highly-regarded youngsters will be able to fill the breach, though uncertainty continues to cloud the futures of Nathan Eccleston – the young striker recently handed his first-team debut – after he rejected a contract extension last week amid reported interest from several Premier League clubs, and Lauri Dalla Valle, a Finnish prospect believed to be discontent with his lack of progress through the club’s ranks.

 

 

It's this sort of thing that has me worried if there is any truth in it. We need to keep and develop our youngsters.

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Swap a bench place for Ryan Babel, Andrea Dossena, Andriy Voronin and Philipp Degen for a selection from Pacheco, Ecclestone, Amoo, Butchmann, Kelly, LDV and Nemeth when he returns. No problems at all for me - if Rafa gets the vast majority of income from the sales in return for reducing the wage bill.

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I do find this fascinating, and obviously corroborates what most people knew about the Keane/ Barry fiasco (and also makes the bell-ends who claim Benitez never wanted Keane at all look like, well, bell-ends):

 

"The plan was for Barry to play on the left and feed the ball to Robbie Keane, who would play up front with Fernando Torres. This blueprint had to be scrapped. The collateral damage was Keane, who signed from Tottenham Hotspur before the Barry deal had been done.

 

“When we wanted to sign Barry, we were sure we were signing a good player with a very good mentality and the quality to play in the Premier League. The priority was Barry, then Keane.”

 

1) So because wing-wizard Barry was unavailable, this *totally* scuppered his genius plans for Robbie Keane?

 

Bollocks.

 

2) And who the fuck would buy Gareth Barry to play on the left anyway?* He hates playing there, and would also be the slowest left-sided midfielder in the world. Apart from maybe Fabio Aurelio. What was the other genius bit of the plan? Have a dream team left flank of Heinze/ Drossena/ Barry?

 

* I've answered my own question.

 

This, more than even Lucas, or any other baffling transfer makes me doubt Benitez's ability to win us the title.

 

More, it makes me doubt his sanity a bit

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