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Russia v Ukraine


Bjornebye
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2 minutes ago, ZonkoVille77 said:

Didn't Russia already turn the flow off from those pipes? Like they could have stopped it flowing from within Russia without blowing it up? I fail to see why they needed to blow it up at all unless its propaganda. It's a strange one. 

Definitely strange. 

 

It's not a strategic target as such and the effort required could've been spent better elsewhere if it was by anti-Russian saboteurs.

Inside job to justify the ongoing war is my opinion.

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2 hours ago, ZonkoVille77 said:

Didn't Russia already turn the flow off from those pipes? Like they could have stopped it flowing from within Russia without blowing it up? I fail to see why they needed to blow it up at all unless its propaganda. It's a strange one. 

There's always gas in the pipe when it's turned off unless the other end is opened.

 

But, Putin wouldnt be able to make his point damaging these and other pipelines if there's no gas flowing through it and no one noticing. They have likely opened the tap to let some gas through and escape out of the fracture so everyone can see the results.

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I've always thought the only body with any influence over Putin is his paymasters. He's fucked them over royally with this vainglorious war. Irreparably, perhaps in terms of doing business with western Europe - at least at pre-war levels. One thing that has been a constant since February 24th has been the flow of gas east-west. Putin weponised this early doors by breaking the contract and insisting on payment in Roubles to bolster their zombie currency. IIRC, Gazprom own and manage the infrastructure. Now it's destroyed (by whomever) only they can legitimately get it working again. I might be being tinfoil hat here, but self-sabotage puts the ball in their court wrt recommissioning.

 

Business never changes and is as brutal as war: it's long-term interests lie in Putin putting his chap away and backing the fuck down and allowing the gas to flow for more years than he could possibly retain power. Money talks. And even Putin has to realise his entire raison d'etre is built on Russia's massive hydrocarbon economy. Has been since Brezhnev's time and will be for as long as they can keep pulling it out of the ground. Popping the pipes has given Gazprom some leverage  - not much - but combined with the myriad other pressures on Putin's peccadillo, might just be enough to pull Russia into some sort of line.  

 

The bovine masses of Russia will never rally around an anti-Putin cause. But business has the balls and the teeth to do exactly that and maintain the status quo. One which fellow 'big-player' Germany is entirely supportive of, no doubt.

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8 hours ago, dockers_strike said:

There's always gas in the pipe when it's turned off unless the other end is opened.

 

But, Putin wouldnt be able to make his point damaging these and other pipelines if there's no gas flowing through it and no one noticing. They have likely opened the tap to let some gas through and escape out of the fracture so everyone can see the results.

 

Perhaps you're right. It just seems a lot of effort for little gain. But he is a lunatic so does make sense for him to make a spectacle where possible. 

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2 hours ago, cloggypop said:

If you are first you are first. If you are second you are nothing.

 

He's leaving Glasgow alone, although might be a few clues for his list the 1996 British travel book he wrote  'On the road with Putes' he wrote he enjoyed his short stay in Glasgow, said he especially enjoyed the sectarian hatred. He apparently thought the Cavern Club in Liverpool was underwhelming and overpriced, Manchester pissed down the whole time he was there and in Cardiff they all spoke a funny language. 

 

So we can't really complain when he decides its payback time.

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13 hours ago, cochyn said:

I've always thought the only body with any influence over Putin is his paymasters. He's fucked them over royally with this vainglorious war. Irreparably, perhaps in terms of doing business with western Europe - at least at pre-war levels. One thing that has been a constant since February 24th has been the flow of gas east-west. Putin weponised this early doors by breaking the contract and insisting on payment in Roubles to bolster their zombie currency. IIRC, Gazprom own and manage the infrastructure. Now it's destroyed (by whomever) only they can legitimately get it working again. I might be being tinfoil hat here, but self-sabotage puts the ball in their court wrt recommissioning.

 

Business never changes and is as brutal as war: it's long-term interests lie in Putin putting his chap away and backing the fuck down and allowing the gas to flow for more years than he could possibly retain power. Money talks. And even Putin has to realise his entire raison d'etre is built on Russia's massive hydrocarbon economy. Has been since Brezhnev's time and will be for as long as they can keep pulling it out of the ground. Popping the pipes has given Gazprom some leverage  - not much - but combined with the myriad other pressures on Putin's peccadillo, might just be enough to pull Russia into some sort of line.  

 

The bovine masses of Russia will never rally around an anti-Putin cause. But business has the balls and the teeth to do exactly that and maintain the status quo. One which fellow 'big-player' Germany is entirely supportive of, no doubt.

Sweden announces it has found a 4th 'leak' in the Nord Stream pipelines.

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They were very excited on pro-Ukrainan social media last night over rumours that Lyman may have been deserted by Russians, but as usual, nothing much has been confirmed today so far except some Yampil video which points to that it is most likely true DNR or LNR troops left the village and is now being explored by the UAF forward units. Also, a lot of speculation about the Russians being surrounded in the Lyman pocket.

 

It would really be nice if today's Putin announcement is accompanied by videos of mass surrender of Russian troops in Lyman, or at least liberation after they fled, but I fear Tom (above) may be right, they are not giving up just yet. UAF may even be waiting for more hastily assembled counter attacks, hoping to repel them and exploit that for even stronger push forward.

 

Let's see what happens today.

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Apologies for multiple posts, but situation is fairly interesting right now, you could say dramatic.

 

Ukrainian journalist Yuri Butusov claims on his FB this is the column of Russian troops which will try to break out of the Lyman pocket taken by a drone some half an hour or an hour ago. He thinks they will not be waiting for the dark.

 

 

lyman.jpg

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