Should the UK remain a member of the EU

[cloggypop]

Another political survey? These are always accurate! Don't remember being asked myself.

You were too busy doing overtime.

[karl1987]

They did, as you know, but in far less numbers

 

96% UKIP

60% Tory

35 % Lab

30% Lib Dem

 

65% of the Leave voters were Tory/Ukip and 20% Labour which means if you voted Leave you are more than 3 times more likely to be a Tory kipper than Lab

 

First things first, I believe (I maybe wrong) that these polls where based on asking people who voted in the general election in 2015 (to work out what party they voted for) and then asking them how they voted on Brexit to get the results.

 

The 35% Labour vote to leave although true is based on those who purely voted for Labour in 2015.  It dosent include the millions who turned out on the 23rd June many from traditional working class Labour heartlands who who didnt bother voting in 2015 or in some cases havent voted in decades.  These are the people Labour need to vote if they harbour any ambitions on getting back in power.

 

You also have to remember that quite a large portion of UKIP vote was/is made up with ex Labour voters who turned their back on them over the years due to becoming disenfranchised with them over the views on eu and immigration.  Again Labour need to win these people back.

 

So yes only 35% of those who voted for Labour  in 2015 voted to leave, but if you included all those who deserted to ukip over the years and all those people from working class heartlands who came out to vote who you'd would expect to vote for labour then that 35% goes a hell of alot higher..

 

Just look at this map to see the problems Labour have in their apparent heartlands in England.....

 

 

For Labour to win a general election they need to win ukippers back and get the young in working class areas voting for them.  Unfortunately as we've seen on this forum, modern day Labour voters regard these people as thick and racist..  Until they learn to talk and engage  them properly and understand their problems they'll struggle for many general elections to come.

 

I'm already seeing change in the Labour party regarding Brexit in recent days. I watched Alan Johnson last night talking to Alex Neil that remaining a member of the single market isnt the aim anymore.  Getting the best possible access is now the aim.  Same thing was said by Labours Johnathon Reynolds the shadow treasury minister on daily politics yesterday too.  They both understand that remaining in the single market and not being able to control immigration will destroy Labours vote even more.  

 

We're leaving the EU, but aiming to get the best access as possible to the single market while being able to get control of our borders again  Time to respect that and get onbaord.  Labour are coming around to it now aswell. They need to otherwise alot of them will be out of a job in the next general election.

[mattyq]

First things first, I believe (I maybe wrong) that these polls where based on asking people who voted in the general election in 2015 (to work out what party they voted for) and then asking them how they voted on Brexit to get the results.

 

The 35% Labour vote to leave although true is based on those who purely voted for Labour in 2015.  It dosent include the millions who turned out on the 23rd June many from traditional working class Labour heartlands who who didnt bother voting in 2015 or in some cases havent voted in decades.  These are the people Labour need to vote if they harbour any ambitions on getting back in power.

 

You also have to remember that quite a large portion of UKIP vote was/is made up with ex Labour voters who turned their back on them over the years due to becoming disenfranchised with them over the views on eu and immigration.  Again Labour need to win these people back.

 

So yes only 35% of those who voted for Labour  in 2015 voted to leave, but if you included all those who deserted to ukip over the years and all those people from working class heartlands who came out to vote who you'd would expect to vote for labour then that 35% goes a hell of alot higher..

 

Just look at this map to see the problems Labour have in their apparent heartlands.....

 

 

For Labour to win a general election they need to win ukippers back and get the young in working class areas voting for them.  Unfortunately as we've seen on this forum, modern day Labour voters regard these people as thick and racist..  Until they learn to talk and engage  them properly and understand their problems they'll struggle for many general elections to come.

 

I'm already seeing change in the Labour party regarding Brexit in recent days. I watched Alan Johnson last night talking to Alex Neil that remaining a member of the single market isnt the aim anymore.  Getting the best possible access is now the aim.  Same thing was said by Labours Johnathon Reynolds the shadow treasury minister on daily politics yesterday too.  

You're mainly wrong

Polls like these typically ask 2 questions....how did you vote in the last election and what party would you generally support? They then run these answers through their statistics software and come up with pretty accurate answers

They do this specifically to iron out issues which you mention 

Also, Ukip supporters are far more likely to be ex Tories than Labour by a wide margin

In the NW, NE and Yorkshire there are slightly more ex Labour Ukip supporters but not by much

 

You do have a point in that there are is a large sub section of society that Labour need to reach out too ..

[karl1987]

You're mainly wrong

Polls like these typically ask 2 questions....how did you vote in the last election and what party would you generally support? They then run these answers through their statistics software and come up with pretty accurate answers

Im basing my info on this - http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

 

That seems to show that the party by party %  on who voted remain/leave  was based purely on how people voted in 2015.  "By 2015 GE vote"

 

[njackets]

Do you only trust surveys that ask absolutely everyone?

 

There's nothing wrong with the kind of healthy scepticism that wants to see the raw data, but your apparent dismissal of all surveys does make you come across as a bit thick.

Polls for the last ellection and Referendum were fucking way off, excuse me for being a little sceptical.

[njackets]

I don't recall Nwhacko picking on the many polls/surveys which Jimmy 10 accounts posted during the build up to the referendum, in fact we we check back through the pages he himself posted stuff on polls/surveys.

'Nwhacko' wasn't you telling someone to grow up a few pages back? More irony!

[Guest Pistonbroke]

'Nwhacko' wasn't you telling someone to grow up a few pages back? More irony!

 

No, that was someone else. So yet another fail on your behalf. By the way, wasn't is a contraction of was not. 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

Polls for the last ellection and Referendum were fucking way off, excuse me for being a little sceptical.

Like I said, a little scepticism would be great.

 

You're just dismissing all polls out of hand and that's just silly. (For example, you can surely see the difference between polls which ask "how will you vote?" and those which ask "how did you vote?")

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

 

You're just dismissing all Poles out of hand and that's just silly.

[Boss]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/28/minister-convinced-nissan-to-keep-building-in-uk-with-written-pr/

 

Tony Blair calling for Remainers to mobilise to take back control from the Brexiteers. Listen to your master and rise up against the tyranny of democracy. 

[Faustus]

I'm a bit bewildered that 4% of UKIPers voted to remain.

 

"I really like that Farage bloke, but he doesn't half talk some shite about the EU."

[Neil G]

I'm a bit bewildered that 4% of UKIPers voted to remain.

 

"I really like that Farage bloke, but he doesn't half talk some shite about the EU."

It's 4 per cent of the people who voted UKIP at last year's GE. It's not implausible that a small proportion of them changed their minds between then and the referendum as they became aware of the possible consequences of Brexit.

[Neil G]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/28/minister-convinced-nissan-to-keep-building-in-uk-with-written-pr/

 

Tony Blair calling for Remainers to mobilise to take back control from the Brexiteers. Listen to your master and rise up against the tyranny of democracy.

 

I'm not in favour of a second referendum, but is it really anti-democratic if the British people are given the final decision in another referendum, if the facts have changed? Specifically, if all the benefits of Brexit that Leave promised turn out not to be on offer because the government come back from their negotiations with a shit deal?

 

If Remain had won 52-48 and the EU had gone completely to shit a year or two afterwards, would you have considered it anti-democratic to demand a second referendum then? Because Farage, Gove etc would have called for one, no doubt about it. As would millions of Leave voters, including presumably some on here.

[Strontium]

If Remain had won 52-48 and the EU had gone completely to shit a year or two afterwards, would you have considered it anti-democratic to demand a second referendum then? Because Farage, Gove etc would have called for one, no doubt about it.

Farage actually did call for a second referendum if Remain won 52-48.

 

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017

 

Nigel Farage warns today he would fight for a second referendum on Britain in Europe if the remain campaign won by a narrow margin next month.

 

The Ukip leader said a small defeat for his leave camp would be “unfinished business” and predicted pressure would grow for a re-run of the 23 June ballot.

 

Farage told the Mirror: “In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.”

[AngryOfTuebrook]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/28/minister-convinced-nissan-to-keep-building-in-uk-with-written-pr/

 

Tony Blair calling for Remainers to mobilise to take back control from the Brexiteers. Listen to your master and rise up against the tyranny of democracy. 

Silly comment about silly talk from a silly war criminal.

 

I don't think anyone from either side of the debate was unaware that there were some right cunts on both sides.

[Strontium]

[Neil G]

Farage actually did call for a second referendum if Remain won 52-48.

 

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017

 

I know he did, I was going to mention it but I left it out as I thought it would muddy the waters. I'd prefer the debate to be limited to the specific scenario of the consequences of the vote being different from what the winning side promised, because that's the only scenario in which a second referendum is justified. As opposed to simply demanding a rerun because the vote was close and you don't like the result.

[thechap]

 

You'd rather they'd announced they were pulling out of the UK, wouldn't you.

[Pureblood]

Marmite up 12.5% in Morrisons.  Brexit bloody Britain.  

[Boss]

I'm not in favour of a second referendum, but is it really anti-democratic if the British people are given the final decision in another referendum, if the facts have changed? Specifically, if all the benefits of Brexit that Leave promised turn out not to be on offer because the government come back from their negotiations with a shit deal?

 

If Remain had won 52-48 and the EU had gone completely to shit a year or two afterwards, would you have considered it anti-democratic to demand a second referendum then? Because Farage, Gove etc would have called for one, no doubt about it. As would millions of Leave voters, including presumably some on here.

 

It was said tongue in cheek to be honest with you. I just thought it was amusing that Tony Blair of all people was the one rallying the troops. In answer to your question, i don't really know. You've posed a lot of hypothetical questions there. 

 

As of right now, nothing's happened. It'd be undemocratic to demand a second referendum just after the first one. It's not going to happen till at least 2020 anyway and the Tories will probably win again, so potentially 2025. After that point we'd be out, our economy would've stabilised and it'd be pointless going through all that rigmarole just to jump back in. 

[njackets]

I'm not in favour of a second referendum, but is it really anti-democratic if the British people are given the final decision in another referendum, if the facts have changed? Specifically, if all the benefits of Brexit that Leave promised turn out not to be on offer because the government come back from their negotiations with a shit deal?

 

If Remain had won 52-48 and the EU had gone completely to shit a year or two afterwards, would you have considered it anti-democratic to demand a second referendum then? Because Farage, Gove etc would have called for one, no doubt about it. As would millions of Leave voters, including presumably some on here.

Good one! So the EU and the Government don't even need to negotiate, just say they got a shit deal to force a second referendum.

 

Not like the EU haven't got form for pulling this type of shit until they get what they want.

[njackets]

You'd rather they'd announced they were pulling out of the UK, wouldn't you.

Yes, one of them admit to this a few pages back.

[Dicko]

I wonder how many other companies are going to ask the government to pay the tariffs for them if we leave the EEA?

[AngryOfTuebrook]

I know he did, I was going to mention it but I left it out as I thought it would muddy the waters. I'd prefer the debate to be limited to the specific scenario of the consequences of the vote being different from what the winning side promised, because that's the only scenario in which a second referendum is justified. As opposed to simply demanding a rerun because the vote was close and you don't like the result.

I can see sense in Tim Farron's argument that "we've voted on the departure, not on the destination". 

 

Some people voted Leave because they'd been led to believe that immigration was a massive problem and that we could and should pull up the drawbridge.

Some people voted Leave because they thought the economy would be better off to the tune of £350 million a week - which could, of course, be spent on the NHS.

Some people voted Leave because they thought it would restore democracy by having the UK's laws made in London rather than Brussels.

Some people voted Leave because they wanted to strike a blow for the working classes against the capitalist monster that is the EU.

 

The fact that the survey I posted above is the first one I've seen which bothers to ask people why they voted to Leave suggests that we can't confidently point at anything and say "This is what people voted for".

The fact that the reasons given in that survey are mostly bullshit suggests that the electorate were largely ill-informed - which is unsurprising, after such a piss-poor and dishonest campaign from both sides.

 

The democratic thing to do now would be to have a full debate and a vote in Parliament about the "Heads of Terms" on which the Government are to enter negotiations with the EU and then, after the negotiations, to have a referendum on whether or not the country prefers whatever the Government has managed to negotiate or wishes to return to the status quo of Membership.

[Neil G]

It was said tongue in cheek to be honest with you. I just thought it was amusing that Tony Blair of all people was the one rallying the troops. In answer to your question, i don't really know. You've posed a lot of hypothetical questions there.

 

As of right now, nothing's happened. It'd be undemocratic to demand a second referendum just after the first one. It's not going to happen till at least 2020 anyway and the Tories will probably win again, so potentially 2025. After that point we'd be out, our economy would've stabilised and it'd be pointless going through all that rigmarole just to jump back in.

 

Agree that discussion on a second referendum before we leave is academic, neither May nor any other Tory leader would survive if they proposed that.

 

You have no idea what state the economy will be in in 2025 though, none of us do. If it all goes to pot on or after that date because our exports have dwindled, would a referendum to rejoin the EU or the single market be undemocratic? Do we have to accept the result forever regardless of how bad things might get?