Coulda / Woulda / Shoulda

[Scott_M]

Seeing I'm a bit bored at work today and sick to the back teeth of seeing the same boring doom merchant posters continually roll out the same tedious arguments over and over and over again in every thread about our current league results and position, I thought I'd collectively summarise where we've dropped and attempt to point out that despite us not picking up the points our play has deserved, we're not that far away from where we ultimately want to be.

 

When going through the games, I've tried to be conservative with the points we should have gained - no defeats become wins. For example, even though I think we should have beat Arsenal last week I've put it down as we should have got a point from the match.

 

So with that in mind....

 

Sunderland (H) - Richardson should have been sent off in the first 5 minutes. Missed penalty. Wrongly disallowed goal and we missed plenty of other chances in the first half to kill the game off. Poor second half display but as they should have been down to 10, they would never have had the opportunity to get back into it.

 

Summary - 1 point, should have been 3

 

Stoke (A) - Stoke score from a debatable penalty. We have a very good shout of our own turned down. Constant pressure from ourselves for the remainder of the game, resulting in us having >20 shots during the game with only poor finishing (Adam / Henderson / Suarez) stopping us getting something from the game.

 

Summary - 0 points, should have been at least 1.

 

Spurs (A) - Difficult place to go and even before we were reduced to 10 and then 9 men, we were well bummed.

 

Summary - 0 points and we were lucky to get away with in only being 4-0

 

Man Utd (H) - Relatively low key affair for the majority of the game. Suarez missed a good chance in the first half. We took the league and they equalized with their first real attempt. We had a lot of pressure with Henderson & Kuyt going close at the end.

 

Summary - 1 point, another day would have been 3 but I'll say a draw was a fair result due to the quality of the opposition. 1 point.

 

Norwich (H) - Apart from a 5-10 minutes of pressure around the hour mark where they equalized through a bit of bad decision making from Reina. We hammered Norwich and should have been out of sight, I think we had > 20 shots in this game as well. We also had numerous chances to win the game once it went back to 1-1 and in injury time with Ruddy thwarted a great Suarez strike and Carroll putting an header wide when all he had to do was hit the target to score.

 

Summary - 1 point, defintly should have been 3.

 

Swansea (H) - Carroll missed a glorious chance early on. Both sides had chances in the first half. Swansea bossed the majority of the 2nd half and only a late bit of pressure from us saw us nearly win the game.

 

Summary - 1 point, could have been 3 on another day, also could have been 0. 1 point.

 

Man City (H) - Outplayed for 35 mins before we get a fortunate equalizer. Very good 2nd half performance seeing Joe Hart make a number of good saves. Silva missed when through with Reina to beat in the dying minutes.

 

Summary - 1 point, another day would have been 3 but I'll say a draw was a fair result due to the quality of the opposition. 1 point.

 

Fulham (A) - A game we pretty much bossed. Henderson & Downing hit the post, Suarez had a goal wrongly disallowed for offside & Spearing was wrongly sent off. Mistake from Reina gives Fulham the points.

 

Summary - 0 points, never should have lost this one. 1 point.

 

Wigan (A) - Not a great performance but a game we largely bossed, although we didn't make that many good chances, we also didn't look like conceding and missed a penalty.

 

Summary - 1 point, should have been 3.

 

Blackburn (H) - Decent performance and a game bossed from start to finish. They score a fortunate OG with their only passage of play near our goal in the first half and then hang on for their lives. Another game where we had > 20 shots. Keeper makes a great save from Carroll and Agger has a header cleared off the line at the death.

 

Summary - 1 point, should have been 3.

 

Man City (A) - Reasonable performance. Downing misses a 1-on-1 at 0-0. Mistakes at the back cost us and are 2-0 at half time, although Kuyt had a great chance to half the deficit just before half time. Hardly had any ideas in the 2nd half and contributed to our own downfall with City getting a third.

 

Summary - 0 points.

 

Stoke (H) - One of the few games we haven't really created anything this season. Poor tactics, poor display.

 

Summary - 1 point, no complaints

 

Bolton (A) - Worst performance of the season by a mile. Out fought in every area.

 

Summary - 0 points.

 

Man Utd (A) - Largely contained them in the first half but game plan feel to pieces within 5 mins of the 2nd half due to lacks in concentration. Looked a beaten team as soon as we went 2-0 down, although nearly nicked a point after Suarez scored.

 

Summary - 0 point, no complaints

 

Spurs (H) - Another game we bossed, had all the chances and couldn't score. Spurs offered very, very little. Suarez and Carroll both mis-fired when should have done better.

 

Summary - 1 point, another day would have been 3 but I'll say a draw was a fair result due to the quality of the opposition. 1 point.

 

Arsenal (H) - A game we pretty much totally bossed from start to finish and I'd argue it was our best performance of the season. Missed pen & hit the post twice (crucially to make it 2-0 and then to go in ahead 2-1 at h/t). Caught by 2 sucker punches. A game we should never have drawn, let alone lost.

 

Summary - 0 points, should have been 3 easily but I'll say a draw was a fair result due to the quality of the opposition. 1 point.

 

 

We are currently 7th with 39 points. From the above (and I know it's subjective), I think we should have at least 50 points, which would put us 4th, 3 points behind Spurs.

 

I know people we say we are where we deserve to be, the league table doesn't lie etc etc and I agree with that. We don't deserve to be in 4th simply because we can't finish the chances we're making. However, IMO, it's pretty much all that's missing from our performances and we're a lot closer to where we want to be than posters think.

 

As frustrating as it is, I'd rather be like this - playing well and creating chances in the majority of games - rather than say how we were in Rafa's last season when we finished 7th and were pretty terrible for the majority of the season.

 

Keep the faith.

[Trucker Paddy]

Pretty much how I see it, were down about 12 points because of shit finishing and stupid mistakes at the back and our goalkeeper

[Whelan]

I blame Charlie Adam.

 

For everything.

 

Even when he wasn't playing.

 

He should have been playing.

[Jairzinho]

We're where we are because we have the 6th or 7th best squad and our best finisher is a midfielder who often doesn't make match day squads.

 

Every single team could moan about decisions or bad luck and, whilst we have hit the post a lot, we've scored so few goals because despite spending a lot of money we still don't have a clinical striker.

[Xherdan]

 

 

Suarez responds to accusations that he is to blame for everything that has gone wrong since the beginning of time.

[Guest LFD]

I certainly agree we deserve more points than what we have had this season. We've hit the post 22 times isn't it?! If only a few of those had hit the otherside of the woodwork we would have had more points.

 

Generally I am very happy with the way Kenny has got usplaying. We have controlled the majority of games and had more possession than the opposition. We have one of the best defensive records in the league and that is without having Lucas for the majority of the season. We have also been creating loads of chances, in most games.

 

Our problem is not having had Gerrard most of the season, missing Suarez for his ban and most importantly the squad does not have a finisher.

 

If this squad had any half decent finisher we would certainly be top four. I moan a lot on here, mainly about Downing and Carroll. But I think given how much they are on, how much they cost and how poor they have been that is justified to criticise them.

 

But for all the moaning I have done about those two players, I do think we are very close to having a superb team. By contrast Arsenal they don't have a good team, but Van Persie papers over all those cracks.

 

This season we might not get top four, some of our new signings might not be good enough, however I think we have made progress in terms of how we keep possession of the ball and defensively. That is why I agree with Comolli, I don't think we need another revolution this summer. I'd rather see us cut our losses on Carroll / Downing and buy two or three top class attacking stars to compliment Suarez and Bellamy. As really there is not much wrong with this side except for being clinical in the final third. The performances have certainly been a lot better than the results have shown.

[redsoxs]

I blame this 4-4-2 formation without a right winger in similar mould like Downing it's never going to work.

[Walton Park]

I blame the Romans. What did they ever do for us?

[WaltonRed]

Keep the faith indeed

[Unrighteous]

That's pretty much how I see it, Paulie. Next season, we need to take our chances. Our penalties this season have been fucking laughable, and that doesn't even consider all the sitters we've missed, and all the posts we've hit.

 

We should have a good, extra, 10-12 goals this season... or more.

 

It's almost like Fernando Torres has given our squad his boots... or something.

[Phoenix]

Good theory apart from the teams above also coulda woulda shoulda

[KMD7]

Good theory apart from the teams above also coulda woulda shoulda

 

But thats not really correct Phoenix. We've been especially wasteful with our chances whilst dominating most games. We've the worst shot/conversion percentage in the league

[Strontium]

Paulie's summary is close to being on the money, I actually think we should have at least 55 points and still be in the title race.

 

It's why I don't really understand the people on this forum who slag our players off incessantly. We have a really good team, a team that has been the better side in around 85-90% of the matches it's played this season. The one and only thing we have a problem with is putting the ball in the net. Obviously that is a fairly fundamental problem when you're a football team, but it's not an insurmountable one. Wholesale changes are absolutely not required. A goal poacher and some target practice will suffice.

[Danny_Kop]

If only we could finish our chances ....

We dominat most games but just can't put teams away

[fowler9]

end of day we''ve fucked up the best chance we'll have of getting back in top 4 due to a lack of finishing and poor signings will probably lose Suarez in summer and have to start all over again

 

it really is a travesty that we'll come below Arsenal

[Philbert]

Whilst I agree with the observations on games undeservedly drawn or lost, I also think we've missed some opportunities in a couple of games we've won, to bolster our confidence by battering teams. Confidence is so important in football.

 

One that springs to mind is Villa away. Although we won that, the air was blue in my front room at the criminal wastefulness - we really could have won that 6 or 7-nil - no exaggeration. Another one is Brighton away in the Carling Cup - again, 6-0 at half time would not have flattered us.

 

Whilst we are experiencing bad luck we also demonstrate some puzzling and annoying decision-making at crucial points in games and invariably make the wrong ones.

[Scott_M]

Seeing I started this, I might as well finish it:

 

Sunderland (A) - Wretched performance but Sunderland weren't much better. They got a break which we didn't. However, when you play as poorly as we did, you can't really say you deserve anything. 0 points.

 

QPR (A) - Considering how we dominated and had a comfortable lead after 80 minutes, to draw would have been a disaster let alone lose. Even though we all know it should have been 3 points, as I said I wasn't going to do a full swing (ie: defeat to a win), I'll have to go with a draw. 1 point.

 

Wigan (H) - Fairly awful first half. Started the 2nd half well and had a goal that would have put us 2-1 up questionably disallowed. Went to shit after that but on another day Suarez's second would have stood and we'd have gone on to win the game. 1 point.

 

Newcastle (A) - Bright start. Carroll should have scored when through with the keeper to beat instead of going down in installments and we should have had a pen which would have seen them reduced to 10 men. However, after they scored we were utter crap & deserved what we got. Which was nothing. 0 points.

 

Aston Villa (H) - Went behind. Could have had a couple of pens. Missed a couple of sitters. Another game where we had > 25 shots & only scored one while Villa scored with virtually their only shot of the game. 3 points.

 

West Brom (H) - See Villa breakdown. 1 point.

 

Fulham (H) - Awful. Deserved what we got. However, if we didn't have the cup final on the Saturday, would we have sided the same team & would we played with such a lack of intensity? Either way, judged on the evening performance - 0 points.

 

Swansea (A) - Poor first half and Doni made some good saves. Better second half and were caught on the break for the winner in a half we'd dominted.Could have been 1 or all 3 points on another day, but as typical as our season was we ened up with 0. 1 point.

 

 

We ended the season with 52 points in 8th. Which is pretty dismal. By my workings out below (which I think are very conservative - anything less than wins against Arsenal & QPR were disasters such as our performances), we should have finsihed the season with 70 points, which would have us joint third with Arsenal.

 

I know everybody is down at the moment after the Cup Final, our results and performances in the run in and the fact The Bitters finished above us (even though they don't get a trophy for it, despite to what they believe!) - I was exactly the same until I re-read and completed this thread.

 

We're not that bad. Being more clincal in front of goal is obviously a must next season. As I've read in the fanzine, we can't hit the woodwork as many times or miss as many pens next season - it would be literally impossible. We also won't have Suarez out for 9 games & our 2 best central midfielders missing 2/3rds of the season each. Certain players will hopefully understand more what it means to play for us and be able to deal with the expectations of it better.

 

Yes, we need work in a few key posistions, thats undeniable. However, the foundations aren't as bad as posters make out to be.

[kalasoma]

I'm gonna put a £25 bet on for next season: 40-1 to win the league with e/w being in top four. Pay out will see me somewhere around £1300. Next season can't come soon enough for me and I've never put a bet on before in my life. Come on!

[gumps]

Pretty good analysis there and I agree with most of it.

 

Yea, we're all very disappointed with the league campaign, but If you step back a bit you'll realise that we didn't finish in a position that our performances merited, especially the first half season.

 

Yes, you could argue that most teams could use this ifithadnabeenfor argument, but ours is really perverse, record times hit the woodwork, 7(?) missed penalties and massive number of chances created in most games, worst home return since god knows when.

 

Just can't see it being as bad next year.

[kalasoma]

Don't forget Downing's 720 shots on goal.

[shaunstrudwick]

need a right winger and striker who never misses

 

as someone put in a different thread if we had a Fowler in his pomp we would've converted the missed chances above

 

Kenny needs to keep Saurez behind after school to practise his shooting skills

[gumps]

Sod's Law says that surely one will go in soon!

 

Even a broken clock is right twice a day!

[WaltonRed]

Henry should read that last two paragraphs

[nickjt]

Totally agree with this thread and its exactly why Kenny deserves next season. I never even enter into this arguement with fans of other teams who wont see us every week, but it really has been a freak season. Admittedly their have been performances that have been non-excusable, but on the whole we have been bloody unlucky in an awful lot of games. Read somewhere the other day that we've had 40 more shots on goal than United this season, but scored 40 odd goals less. This is not to excuse all players/management, but I think it offers another crack at the whip, and I think the vast majority of people accept that excuses (which is what this post represents) will not be accepted, lucky or unlucky.

[2pak]

This is fantasy land. As someone noted earlier every team has something to moan and bitch about. 38 games is a very healthy sample and the table will not lie.

 

However if this thread makes you feel somehow better.. as you were.