Coronavirus

[TheHowieLama]

@Spy Bee

It is all well and good going back and forth on assumptions and "facts".

 

The only thing I know for sure is there will be no intelligent "strategy" to any of this.

As I said a few weeks back there is zero chance of the UK getting the government, local jurisdictions and the public at large to work in unison on anything, much less something that has become as polarising as this.

 

The danger of adopting your mindset (lets call it the Happy Clapper strategy) now is it normalizes the absolute shitshow that has preceded it. In fact it legitimizes what the gubmint tried to do at the outset - which I think everybody agrees was ridiculous.

[Mudface]

14 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

Nope, started September 3rd. Too soon for it to be student driven & that wouldn't account for the spontaneous uplift.

It's almost as though the infection rate's exponential, starting off slow and then getting rapid once it reaches a threshold. Funny that.

[Gnasher]

4 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Overall I agree, but the economic damage has long been done - no amount of tough choices are going to undo that now.

I agree the economic damage has in the main been done but a lot in the service sector especially are saying they will go bankrupt with more lockdown measures. These sectors employ a lot of mainly young people who the virus does not seem to affect. 

[Bjornebye]

 

From the article I posted above: 

 

Sweden didn’t ‘refuse’ to lockdown. Nor does it have a herd immunity strategy, although it was recognised that some level of immunity in the population could be a side effect of its approach. The false premise of that rumour is that Sweden stayed open in order to allow the virus to spread, thus promoting herd immunity. In reality, Swedish law does not allow for many types of lockdown measures. Even something as simple as closing a beach is tricky because, in general, beach access is covered by the Right of Public Access which, in turn, is enshrined in the Swedish constitution. 

 

The limitations of Swedish law partly explain why the parliament passed temporary amendments to the Communicable Diseases Act in the spring, which would have allowed for the closure of shops and other commercial spaces (this provision expired at the end of June without being used).

 

So Sweden did not refuse to lockdown; rather it was not really an option. The Public Health Agency also believed that voluntary measures would work as well as compulsory ones and that people could be trusted to act responsibly. However, Swedes are not inherently more responsible than other people. But by repeatedly and consistently telling us that we were responsible and could be trusted to use our judgement, the government and authorities performed an extremely effective Jedi-mind trick: we were told that we were responsible, so most of us were responsible. 

 

That said, high levels of societal and institutional trust meant that we were already comfortable with following official recommendations. About 60 per cent of Swedes agree that ‘most people can be trusted’ compared to just 30 per cent in the UK, and institutional trust is also higher in Sweden. Size matters, as well: while Swedes have political scandals like any other country, our politicians and civil servants are not faceless bureaucrats, but fellow Swedes. If I email a public official, I usually expect a response, not a formal letter written by an administrator. However, societal and institutional trust are not intrinsic, and can work in large countries. Trust is earned and nurtured, and it can be lost — an encouragement and warning to any government.

 

Sweden's approach is neither an irresponsible threat to public health nor a libertarian dream

When voluntary measures were first put in place, some people were confused and wanted more specific guidance from the authorities; this led to continuous public conversations, and ultimately a consensus emerged about what was acceptable and non-acceptable behaviour. The Public Health Agency understood that daily life is governed just as much by social norms as it is by laws.

In this way, voluntary measures are not inherently inferior or ‘lax’ in comparison to compulsory ones.

 

Another part of the Swedish strategy is sustainability, the idea that we can live with the measures in place for a long time. This has not worked perfectly but has worked well enough that, for now, the number of new cases at a national level dropped drastically in July and has been stable since. 

For the first six weeks of the pandemic, most people who were able to do so went into a self-imposed lockdown. Since then, and with the summer holidays, many people have relaxed into a new normal. That is, very few are partying as if it were February 2020, but sometimes people stand too close in the supermarket queue. This change is reflected in mobile phone tracking data, indicating that movement dropped drastically at the end of March, went up during the summer and is now below normal, but higher than at the beginning of the pandemic.

 

However, there is a sustainability problem when it comes to the elderly: it is simply unethical to isolate ‘at risk’ groups for an indeterminate amount of time. Many care homes were unable to keep the virus out during the spring, leading to a very high death toll amongst residents. Since then, routines have been improved so it is possible, but albeit still challenging, to protect most people at risk. Fortunately, some of the restrictions for care homes will be lifted in October. General recommendations for the elderly are already less restrictive than they were in the spring, and are expected to loosen during the autumn. But this is possible, in part, because there is low community transmission right now.

 

As a dual Swedish and American citizen who lived in England for most of the 2000s, I have followed the mask culture wars in the US and the confusion around the changing rules in the UK. And I think that many international audiences are over-analysing Sweden’s Covid-19 response.

Most people’s experience with Sweden is limited to Ikea and ABBA, and maybe Wallander. This unfamiliarity has turned Sweden into a blank canvas on to which people — from both the left and the right — can project their fears about the virus, the economy and government control. This is why I hesitated to translate the Swedish word ‘grundlag’ into the English word ‘constitution.’ The Swedish constitution is very important, but it does not have the same emotive connotation that the US constitution has for many Americans.

 

Sweden's approach is neither an irresponsible threat to public health nor a libertarian dream defending the last bastion of civil liberties. Rather, the real Sweden is much more complicated and fascinating than these caricatures.

[TheHowieLama]

1 minute ago, Gnasher said:

I agree the economic damage has in the main been done but a lot in the service sector especially are saying they will go bankrupt with more lockdown measures. These sectors employ a lot of mainly young people who the virus does not seem to affect. 

Many of them will. Some still would if all restrictions were lifted immediately. There are going to be large numbers of folks whose behavior will change. It is not going to like flipping a light switch and suddenly my local corner restaurant is jammed.

[Spy Bee]

12 minutes ago, Tony Moanero said:

 

Are you, or any of your family or friends, in the clinically vulnerable or clinically extremely vulnerable groups? A yes or no will suffice. No need to go into detail, obviously.

Mate, this is so patronising. I am talking the general health of the wider population. To suggest that if I don't have a very vulnerable relative I cannot empathise and don't care about the vulnerable is just bullshit. It's like me suggesting people without kids don't care about future generations. 

 

My mum is 68 and has hypertension and has had a couple of very rough years healthwise. She was getting very down towards the end of the lockdown and I am glad to see her enjoying life, even if it means she is living with risk.

 

8 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

@Spy Bee

lets call it the Happy Clapper strategy

Sigh

 

5 minutes ago, Mudface said:

It's almost as though the infection rate's exponential, starting off slow and then getting rapid once it reaches a threshold. Funny that.

Viruses don't spontaneously rise in different areas at the same time. If you are going to continue to be supercilious and sarcastic, please do it when you are showing that I am lacking in knowledge in a certain area, or that I have been really fucking stupid or something.

[Spy Bee]

33 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

Very interesting. 

 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-myth-of-sweden

 

 

Congrats on bringing a bottle to the party Stig.

[Bjornebye]

1 hour ago, Spy Bee said:

You accuse people of being a liar, while completely misrepresenting everything that someone who has a different viewpoint from you says. 

 

2 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

Mate, this is so patronising. I am talking the general health of the wider population. To suggest that if I don't have a very vulnerable relative I cannot empathise and don't care about the vulnerable is just bullshit. It's like me suggesting people without kids don't care about future generations. 

 

.

[Spy Bee]

Fair point. Why were you asking the question, Tony?

[Mudface]

1 minute ago, Spy Bee said:

Viruses don't spontaneously rise in different areas at the same time. If you are going to continue to be supercilious and sarcastic, please do it when you are showing that I am lacking in knowledge in a certain area, or that I have been really fucking stupid or something.

Fucking hell. They haven't risen 'spontaneously' in all areas at the same time. Just a few days ago, you and Strontium Dog were going on about London and the South West having low figures. This is the current map, it's not uniform by any means- 

 

[Bjornebye]

Just now, Mudface said:

Fucking hell. They haven't risen 'spontaneously' in all areas at the same time. Just a few days ago, you and Strontium Dog were going on about London and the South West having low figures. This is the current map, it's not uniform by any means- 

 

The Bushwackers if they were a WWF tag-team. 

[Spy Bee]

1 minute ago, Mudface said:

Fucking hell. They haven't risen 'spontaneously' in all areas at the same time. Just a few days ago, you and Strontium Dog were going on about London and the South West having low figures. This is the current map, it's not uniform by any means- 

 

God, this is so fucking tedious. Proportionally. Proportionally. The rates of infection spiked in all areas at the same time, proportionally.

[Spy Bee]

It's all actually there is the picture in the text in the top right hand corner. Why the fuck am I explaining it, and being called stupid at the same time?

[Bjornebye]

1 minute ago, Spy Bee said:

God, this is so fucking tedious. Proportionally. Proportionally. The rates of infection spiked in all areas at the same time, proportionally.

Have they risen proportionally though? 

[Spy Bee]

1 minute ago, Bjornebye said:

Have they risen proportionally though? 

I refer the right honourable idiot to my previous response.

[Gnasher]

12 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Many of them will. Some still would if all restrictions were lifted immediately. There are going to be large numbers of folks whose behavior will change. It is not going to like flipping a light switch and suddenly my local corner restaurant is jammed.

A lot are treading a tightrope now,  its make or break time, job losses bring future health problems of their own. 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/22/new-covid-19-restrictions-mean-uk-unemployment-will-get-much-worse

[Tony Moanero]

10 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

Fair point. Why were you asking the question, Tony?

I’m a nosy bastard.

[lifetime fan]

23 hours ago, Bjornebye said:

Lets not go that far. I'm far from intelligent but at least I'm honest and humble. 

 

[Bjornebye]

Just now, lifetime fan said:

 

That too. 

[TheHowieLama]

1 minute ago, Gnasher said:

A lot are treading a tightrope now,  its make or break time, job losses bring future health problems of their own. 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/22/new-covid-19-restrictions-mean-uk-unemployment-will-get-much-worse

 

Completely agree - you are already in that cycle. It is going to get worse - less people with a few coins jingling in their pocket means less shops/pubs etc selling stuff, even if folks did want to go back - it is a circular cycle that will be very difficult to break

[Spy Bee]

I'm ducking out for the day lads. *tags SD

 

Enjoy your evenings.

[TheHowieLama]

9 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

It's all actually there is the picture in the text in the top right hand corner. Why the fuck am I explaining it, and being called stupid at the same time?

Don't take it too personally man but you have to accept that you have spent the last 6 months of your life trying to downplay the severity of the situation using data and "studies" from possibly the biggest rag-tag bunch of "experts" ever assembled. For you, a pivot from there to a strategy that protects the most vulnerable is going to be met with some skepticism.

 

[Spy Bee]

(in some rather sad tag team news, Animal out of Legion of Doom has died, at the age of just 60)

[Mudface]

14 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

God, this is so fucking tedious. Proportionally. Proportionally. The rates of infection spiked in all areas at the same time, proportionally.

But, they didn't. Here, Scotland's easy to find- Glasgow and Clyde went up by about 40% in the last 3 weeks (i.e. since schools went back). Forth Valley by under 20%, other areas lower.

 

[sir roger]

You get a telegram at 50 if you are a wrestler, so that's not too bad.