Cheltenham 3rd day short list

[bobhorse]

Tursday 15th March Cheltenham selections

14:00

Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed) (Class 1) (5YO plus)

 

Short list

 

One of the new races at the festival I would say a winner last time out and at the head of the market seem to be the order of the day with past festival form a bonus

 

Short List

 

New Little Bric = 11/2

Limited Edition = 12/1

Dictum = 22/1

Chief Yeoman = 16/1

Rash arrow = 28/1

King Revo = 9/2

 

wouldn’t be wanting to look any further than the list above but I like the look of New Little Bric his only defeat was behind Fair Along and My Way De Zolzan but can he give the weight

 

 

 

 

 

14:35

Ryanair Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)

Short list

Another new race both previous winners have gone to the 1st 2 in the betting Thisthatandtother won the first and he beat Fondmort who went on to win last years older chases do well winners 9y old and 10y old and both from top Yards Henderson has had a winner and a 2nd Nicholls 1 winner and a 4th

 

Monet's Garden = 3/1

Thisthatandtother = 16/1

Racing Demon = 6/1

Taranis = 9/2

Cruzan = 25/1 eway bet as he is from Hendersons Yard and as such you have to take notice

 

Forcasts combos for this race

 

15:15

Ladbroke World Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)

Cant look outside the first four in the betting

 

Black Jack Ketchum = 9/4 ignore his last run and he is a banker the faster ground will be in his favour but still a ? over his last run as it was to bad to be true

 

 

Inglis Drever = 5/1 past winner who seems to be coming back to his best wouldn’t put you off him but he would be the first to regain the title 2 years after winning it

Mighty Man = 5/1 Im a Mighty man fan any horse that can beat My way de zolzen has to be a goodun and 5/1 looks good

 

Blazing Bailey = 7/1 5 year olds have a terrible record and he would have to overcome this fact

 

 

16:00

Racing Post Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5YO plus)

 

French breads have an excellent record and I wouldn’t look outside this group Pipe and Henderson have won 6 out of the last 10 Henry Daly has won it with a Horse on his Debut so you would have to include him in any short list

 

Short List

 

Madison Du Berlais = 14/1 a Pipe French bread so would be of interest

Vodka Bleu = 10/1 a Pipe French bread so would be of interest

Palarshan = 40/1French bread trained by Daly worth a look at the price

Moncadou = 8/1 French trained and bread from leading owner with top Jockey on

Kelrev = 40/1has been placed in this race before

No Full = 28/1French bread with a chance of a place

Iron Man = 66/1 included by being a French bread but I don’t think he has the form to win this

 

I have left off the Nichols runners French bread or not as the best he has ever managed in this race is 7th worth opposing his runners in this

Might be an idea to link theses in forcast tricast combos big winnings for small stakes

 

 

16:40

137th Year Of National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateurs') (Class 2) (5YO plus)

 

 

7y old or older good Jockey in the first 7 in the betting also any JP McManus owned horse

 

I like the look of a couple in this race but its one to watch

Nine De Sivola

Garde Champetre

 

 

17:20

Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final (Listed) (Class 1) (5YO plus)

 

I like the look of a few in this race

Material World = 16/1

Hirvine = 18/1

Monolith = 10/1

Nirvana Du Bourg = 12/1

 

Will again be doing forcasts and e/ways on these

 

Well that is the 3rd day covered hope you have a good day Good Luck

[Carradona]

Are you up in money over the two days so far?

[Paco]

Can't believe I didn't back Burntoakboy or cloudy lane yesterday. Best result I had was aranleigh third. I took a hiding yesterday.

 

backed my way de solzen on the first day and also had the third in that race.

 

back to the drawing board today

[bobhorse]

Are you up in money over the two days so far?

 

I was up over 12k on the first day down around £200 on the second should at least break even today but regardless i expect to be £10k up at least on the weeek

[bobhorse]

£50 ew on New Little Brick 11/2 = -£100

£25 ew Rasharrow 28/1 = £200 -£50

3 X £10 R/Fcasts = -£60

New little Brick

Rasharrow

Limited Addition

so lost £10 on the race but at one point i thought i had the forcast in the bag with them running 123

 

Just to show even when you dont get the winner you can still make money

 

without the forcasts i would have been £50 up on the race

 

durring the meeting i would say i work on £200 a race so the meeting would cost me £5k if i failed to have a winner, a lot of money.

most of that isnt my money i will have backed some of these to win on the run up to the festival building up my bank

I start the year with a bank of £500 and aim to grow it to cover Cheltenham and hope after Cheltenham, i have a bank left for Aintree.

if not i have to play with my own money and the stakes are a lot lower

[bobhorse]

I have had £200 on Moncadou @ 8/1 and i have now laid it at 9/2 to £200

 

so if it loses i get me £200 back if it wins i have £200 @8/1= £1800

but i would owe £200 @9/2 = £1100 so i will only win £700 but either way i cant loose

 

I have done the same with Garde Champetre i have £200 to win at 22/1 and i will lay that bet off at much shorter odds before the off i took a gamble that it would shorten but its a JP horse so i thought that it was a cert to be backed if i can lay it to single figure odds i will be laughing

[bobhorse]

£100 to win on Monet's Garden @3/1

£25 eway Crozan @33/1

 

3 x £10 r/forcasts

Crozan

Monets Garden

Thisthatandtother

[bobhorse]

hope someone backed the winner Nicholls now 1 4 1 in the three runnings

Thought Hendersons Crozan was running a big race till he fell

 

I have had 7x £10 way bets on all picks in the next as well as the £200 on Moncadou which i have laid off as i sad

 

so i hope to get my loses back here

so far Today

-£220 plus iv staked £340 so -£560 with £200 of that comming back regardless of result so the worse case i will be £360 down after the next race but i have 7 runners to try to get something back plus if Moncadou wins i will be £700 to the good plus £10 e/w @8/1 on him

 

I dont see this as gambling but investing on outcomes and try to make sure im covered i hope this makes sense to someone and it might just change the way you look at horse racing and betting

[bobhorse]

iv backed 3 here

 

Mighty Man £100 @ 5/1 now laid it off at 39/10

Inglis Drever £100 @5/1

Overstrand £25 eway @ 33/1 laid it off @20/1

 

so i have laid out £250 laid off £150 so at worse i will be down £100

[Strontium]

Congrats again bobhorse!

[bobhorse]

that will do £500 profit so even with a blank on the next race i will be in front

£140 with 2 races left

[Sangria]

That is serious stuff mate, you certainly know what you are doing.

[LEF]

I havent a clue with all that laid off shernanigans, Tri casts, higitipops ect. I had Mighty Man EW, I always have Mighty Man and that is 4 times it has won me money now.

[bobhorse]

i have them in forcast combos for £2 stake

[bobhorse]

How well did Palashan run off the course for almost 2 years and to come back and run 2nd i had 40/1 eway never going to win but brilliant job by his trainer

[bobhorse]

around £250 on the day with 2 races to go so it should be at worse even

on the day i have laid my bet on Garde Champetre at 12/1 so if it wins i will be £2k up if it loses i will be all square i have £50 eway on Nine De Sivola

@16/1 and i think i might lay that off @8/1

 

so now i have 2 bets in effect now

£200 @10/1 Garde Champetre

£50 ew @ 8/1 Nine De Sivola

 

and both of them are free bets so i cant lose on the race

[bobhorse]

I have had 4 x £20 eway singles and 6 £10 R/Fcasts

 

Material World = 16/1

Hirvine = 18/1

Monolith = 10/1

Nirvana Du Bourg = 12/1

 

Monolith with the other 3

Nirvana Du Bourg with the other 3

 

total £280 wich will be _£30 on the day so i might lay a little bit off me eway bets to make sure i stay even i have laid off £20 ew Nirvina Du Bourg at 19/2 so the worse i can be is £10 up on the day

[captainharris]

I really wish i understood some of this.

[bobhorse]

I really wish i understood some of this.

 

its like say

i have a bet with you and you give me 10/1 on a £100

 

lets say to make it easy Liverpool to win

 

i then have a bet with someone else who wants to back liverpool to win but wants odds of 6/1 so i make the bet

 

if liverpool win you would give me £1000 and i would give the lad who took 6/1 £600

 

so i win £400 and if Liverpool lose it costs me £100 to you

 

but i get £100 from him

 

so i break even and that is the top and bottom of it really

[bobhorse]

well thats it around £110 up on the day

 

So that leaves me with £2350 for tomorrow

£5k bank for Aintree and

10k Profit on the meeting plus whatever we can make tomorrow so that will be Holiday paid for and some nice stuff the Mrs wanted as she gets the profit to ensure the bookie never wins

[Sangria]

well thats it around £110 up on the day

 

So that leaves me with £2350 for tomorrow

£5k bank for Aintree and

10k Profit on the meeting plus whatever we can make tomorrow so that will be Holiday paid for and some nice stuff the Mrs wanted as she gets the profit to ensure the bookie never wins

 

Nice week you have had.

[Guest TK-421]

well thats it around £110 up on the day

 

So that leaves me with £2350 for tomorrow

£5k bank for Aintree and

10k Profit on the meeting plus whatever we can make tomorrow so that will be Holiday paid for and some nice stuff the Mrs wanted as she gets the profit to ensure the bookie never wins

 

Can't agree with that rule. Have a word.

[Ian]

well thats it around £110 up on the day

 

So that leaves me with £2350 for tomorrow

£5k bank for Aintree and

10k Profit on the meeting plus whatever we can make tomorrow so that will be Holiday paid for and some nice stuff the Mrs wanted as she gets the profit to ensure the bookie never wins

 

Fair fucking play i would never have the balls to gamble that amount of money. I gambled about 30 euro today and i was shitting. I won though i had 10 euro a win on Inglis drever, 5 euro each way on slim pickings and i had Inglis Drever as my only winner in a lucky 15 so i won 89.50 euro for the day and i was delighted.

 

My uncle rang this morning to say he got a tip for slim pickings so i backed him each way. Then before the race he rang again to say he got a tip for the winner Idole First well it was fuck all good to me when the horses were heading to the start and the bookies at least 10 minutes away.

 

I still won money though so i'm not that bothered.

 

I'm going to have a cut off Exotic Dancer tomorrow in the gold cup that may be my only bet nothing else looks good for tomorrow.

[bobhorse]

Fair fucking play i would never have the balls to gamble that amount of money. I gambled about 30 euro today and i was shitting. I won though i had 10 euro a win on Inglis drever, 5 euro each way on slim pickings and i had Inglis Drever as my only winner in a lucky 15 so i won 89.50 euro for the day and i was delighted.

 

My uncle rang this morning to say he got a tip for slim pickings so i backed him each way. Then before the race he rang again to say he got a tip for the winner Idole First well it was fuck all good to me when the horses were heading to the start and the bookies at least 10 minutes away.

 

I still won money though so i'm not that bothered.

 

I'm going to have a cut off Exotic Dancer tomorrow in the gold cup that may be my only bet nothing else looks good for tomorrow.

 

nice to see someone win keep your 50 euro profit for a weekend out and try again with your 30 euro have a look at Bica 11/1 he only has one to beat in whyso mayo and should be a good ew bet

[Ian]

nice to see someone win keep your 50 euro profit for a weekend out and try again with your 30 euro have a look at Bica 11/1 he only has one to beat in whyso mayo and should be a good ew bet

 

Thanks, i'll have a look at him tomorrow. That's my plan keep the 50 towards a good piss up Paddy's Day and bet the 30. Exotic Dancer and now Bica will probably be my only bets. Good luck tomorrow. :thumbup: