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Russia v Ukraine


Bjornebye
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I was in Halifax last week, the harbour from which many of the North American convoys bound for the UK while the Nazis were trying to pound you into oblivion departed.

 

I imagine quite a few companies here--from arms, to shipping, to food production--made vast amounts of money creating and shipping those supplies.

 

Would you have been saying the same thing about them, and demanding that they stop sending the UK those supplies?

 

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25 minutes ago, polymerpunkah said:

I was in Halifax last week, the harbour from which many of the North American convoys bound for the UK while the Nazis were trying to pound you into oblivion departed.

 

I imagine quite a few companies here--from arms, to shipping, to food production--made vast amounts of money creating and shipping those supplies.

 

Would you have been saying the same thing about them, and demanding that they stop sending the UK those supplies?

 

 

I'd be suprised if they made the sort of mark ups being enjoyed by the likes of Shell. Plus I'd wager their main consideration was the  common good and not to stuff their fat greedy faces.

 

 

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 Interesting article. Ten months ago, in June of last year, Haass wrote how after 100 days of war with increasing number of calls and initiatives for negotiations it was time to define west's policy in Ukraine, and in April last year that goals must be formulated quickly before it's too late. Now support for Ukraine in the war with Russia is eroding West's ability to... wait for it... fight Russia directly. 

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It depends what the West hopes to get out of it.

 

If you look at it objectively there's only been one winner.

 

Nato has got more members and more money, Ukraine wants to join the EU, nobody is scared of the Russian, but, equally, the tales of their depravity means they'll meet strong resistance if they ever try anywhere else.

 

Their tactics and equipment have been shown to be medieval,  and they're just generally, humiliatingly, shit at war.

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I'd say there are several "Wests" here, there are (at least) three distinctive groups here.

 

US and its closest allies like UK are interesting in learning as much as possible about true capabilities of Russian army and weakening Russia militarily and economically as a geostrategic rival or adversary. They may reduce the support once Ukraine is no longer facing annihilation or Russia is no longer a global threat.

 

Second group are former Russia's victims who know perfectly well what are they dealing with, Baltics, Finland, Poland - they would support Ukraine even if the US pulls out and want more or less total Russian  military collapse in Ukraine.

 

Third group are the EU heavy weights (France / Germany) and Central / Eastern Europeans, they mostly see Ukraine as an American project and would sacrifice it if possible because economic and other relations with Russia are more important than what happens to Ukraine. They are constantly trying to find a balancing act.

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You give these guys a golf club,  they'll probably try and fuck it. 

 

A Russian warplane accidentally fired a weapon into the city of Belgorod near Ukraine, causing an explosion and damaging buildings, the Russian defence ministry said.

Late on Thursday, local authorities reported a large blast in the city, which lies just across the border from Ukraine. The regional governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said three people had been injured.

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I think we should declare war on Russia. 

The longer this goes on without it, the more accepted the idea is of Russia being in Ukraine. 

China are drawn into it but it's against a backdrop of no country lifting a finger against Russia.  I don't think China would help Russia, or pretend to be their ally, if a major NATO power called out Russia for a scrap. 

 

It's all too Hitler v Poland this.  If we're not careful it'll see Jinping cast as Mussolini, and those two countries fighting the world.  It doesn't have to be like this.  We need to beat Russia back with a shitty stick and remind the world order that there are red lines. 

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It'd only be like Hitler vs Poland if instead of crack troops with the best tanks in the world, the German army was composed mainly of convicts and pissheads which couldn't fight their way to the bar at Garlands, and if blitzkrieg failed on day 14 and resulted in them being pushed back to some ruins hundreds of miles away from the capitol.

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13 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

It'd only be like Hitler vs Poland if instead of crack troops with the best tanks in the world, the German army was composed mainly of convicts and pissheads which couldn't fight their way to the bar at Garlands, and if blitzkrieg failed on day 14 and resulted in them being pushed back to some ruins hundreds of miles away from the capitol.

 

MajorLeftBighorn-size_restricted.gif 

 

>

 

 russian-dance.gif

 

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I was highly sceptical of Ukraine trying to hold out in Bakhmut, it seemed like they were about to be overrun a few months ago and lose a few thousand men, possibly even 10-20 thousand.

 

Instead they somehow got Russia, which should have been fortifying and digging in against the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive to keep throwing their own men and equipment away in a battle for the 58th-largest city in Ukraine with no strategic significance. There is little doubt that it cost Ukraine dearly, but not nearly as dearly as it cost the Russians, which is why they dragged it out. 

Meanwhile they have up to 12 brigades of troops, rested and newly trained on Western equipment, ready to begin the counteroffensive. It is going to be fascinating to see if they can successfully roll through the Russian lines, but you wouldn't bet against them. So far Ukraine has exceeded expectation at almost every turn in this war, or perhaps it's better to say that Russia hasn't met expectations.

Not that the war is going to be ended by this counteroffensive - I don't have any illusions that this war, in some form or other, won't continue until Putin is out of power. But it will be interesting to see exactly how much of their territory and people they can liberate, and how much it costs them to do it.

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I am increasingly skeptical about the Ukrainian counteroffensive, I don't think they have the weapons, troops and enough ammunition for it. There is way to much talk about it and Russians are now well dug in almost everywhere.

 

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/COUNTEROFFENSIVE/mopakddwbpa/index.html

 

It sound like a tactic to make Russians nervous and think about counter measures more than about further advances. Or the West is pushing Ukraine to try and improve the current situation before they are forced to accept the frozen conflict and borders along the situation on the ground. Russians act as if they thing this is the case.

 

 

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We'll see. The Ukrainians certainly wouldn't advertise the fact if they did have sufficient resources - in fact, they would do exactly the opposite. What they cannot hide is no counteroffensive at all, so if one doesn't materialize this year then questions will be asked why.

 

My money is on a mid to end of May offensive.

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