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What the fuck is John McCain up to?

Chris

By Chris,
in GF - General Forum

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WaltonRed Grand Master

WaltonRed

Posted
Posted
Still got a bad feeling that McCain could get in here, I'll be staying up though - might go around to my equally sad mate's gaff and get some food in.

 

It'll be worth it one way or the other.

 

You'll never forget it tomorrow, either the dream is a reality or the nightmare will only get worse.

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Neil G Grand Master

Neil G

Posted
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For Section and anyone else feeling nervous.

 

 

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

 

 

Today's Polls, 11/3 (PM Edition)

 

With fewer than six hours until voting begins in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, the national polling picture has cleared up considerably. Barack Obama is on the verge of a victory, perhaps a decisive victory, in the race for the White House.

 

The national polls have all consolidated into a range of roughly Obama +7. That is right about where our model sees the race as well, giving Obama a 6.8 point advantage in its composite of state and national polling. Our model notes, however, that candidates with large leads in the polls have had some tendency to underperform marginally on election day, and so projects an Obama win of 6.0 points tomorrow.

 

Far more important, of course, is the race for 270 electors. It appears almost certain that Obama will capture all of the states won by John Kerry in 2004. Pennsylvania, while certainly having tightened somewhat over the course of the past two weeks, appears to be holding at a margin of about +8 for Obama, with very few remaining undecideds. Obama also appears almost certain to capture Iowa and New Mexico, which were won by Al Gore in 2000. Collectively, these states total 264 electoral votes, leaving Obama just 5 votes shy of a tie and 6 of a win.

 

Obama has any number of states to collect those 5 or 6 votes. In inverse order of difficulty, these include Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana. Obama is the signficant favorite in several of these states; winning any one of them may be fairly difficult for John McCain, but winning all of them at once, as John McCain probably must do, is nearly impossible.

 

McCain's chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or "Shy Tory" Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.

 

However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama's support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.

 

McCain's chances of victory are estimated at 1.9 percent, their lowest total of the year.

 

Our final polling update of the campaign will follow in the early afternoon tomorrow.

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theghost Mentor

theghost

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If it wasn't that ultimately some American cunt wins, American Presidential election night is ace. I usually ring all of the local escort agencies and see if they have any American birds on their books, get her round, smear Pizza all over her flange, stuff popcorn up her arse, kill her, eat her and then watch some corrupt megalomaniac, who shouldn't be left in charge of Mice, get elected and disappoint everyone.

I wish it was every November.

 

Too much, Rob. Too much.

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Cardie Grand Master

Cardie

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Fox News is the best for completely unbiased reporting.

 

Yesterday some independent firm had done voting projections and had Obama up by a long way, Fox didn't like those figures so had their own up with McCain catching up.

 

Next story was a sound bite from Hilary Clinton during the primaries that McCain was using, against her wishes, in robocalls to slate Barak.

 

Then they moved on to Obama's Kenyan aunt being an illegal immigrant.

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Unrighteous Grand Master

Unrighteous

Posted
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canada is the 51st state (and may well be someday - whether we like it or not)

 

the best you can hope for is 52nd.

 

Bollocks. We shift our national resource sales from the USA to China and the USA will have a massively undefended border with a protected enemy.

 

Besides, I'm not exactly nationalistic but if the USA tried to annex Canada then I'd turn fucking terrorist.

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Neil G Grand Master

Neil G

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Posted
Its not over until its over.

 

Do what I do, dont listen to the polls or the pollsters.

 

 

I won't believe it's definitely in the bag until the results come in, but I'm feeling very confident and relaxed. If McCain wins it will be the biggest fuck-up in polling history by a distance, and I don't think even they could get it that wrong. It's not a few isolated polls calling it for Obama, it's virtually every single poll from a wide range of organisations with different political leanings all saying the same thing. Besides, as the piece I posted explains, for every factor that might cause the polls to overstate Obama's lead, there's another factor that could cause them to underestimate it.

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Guest PaddyBerger15

Guest PaddyBerger15

Posted
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Are there any links to animated maps which will show the results as they come in?

 

I reckon Stouff should be able to knock you up an MS paint job if you ask him nicely.

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neko Grand Master

neko

Posted
Posted

there is a weird trend where the incumbent (or his party) always win if the washington redskins win on the week before the polls. if the redskins lose, the other party candidate (obama) wins.

 

gentleman - pittsburgh 23 washington 6

 

obama wins big !

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