Russia v Ukraine

[SasaS]

After plateauing in November, Russia's inflation is again slightly up, to 7.7 percent y/y in February, highest in a year. I also read somewhere that they are raising (or still considering, don't remember) their relatively low income rate slightly. Even though Ukraine's campaign against oil refineries  pushed the oil prices up, it may end up hurting Russia's exports a couple of percentage points again. 

 

Hopefully Russia's economy will get progressively less resistant to the current pressures soon and the hurt starts spreading into to general population more.

[Gnasher]

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/08/ukraine-soldiers-shortage-infantry-russia/

 

 

 

 

 

[Gnasher]

13 hours ago, SasaS said:

After plateauing in November, Russia's inflation is again slightly up, to 7.7 percent y/y in February, highest in a year. I also read somewhere that they are raising (or still considering, don't remember) their relatively low income rate slightly. Even though Ukraine's campaign against oil refineries  pushed the oil prices up, it may end up hurting Russia's exports a couple of percentage points again. 

 

Hopefully Russia's economy will get progressively less resistant to the current pressures soon and the hurt starts spreading into to general population more.

 

 

 

https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/03/14/russias-economy-is-going-strong-why-havent-western-sanctions-worked

 

 

[SasaS]

49 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

 

 

https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/03/14/russias-economy-is-going-strong-why-havent-western-sanctions-worked

 

 

Out of curiosity, have you read that article, beyond the headline?

[Gnasher]

1 hour ago, SasaS said:

Out of curiosity, have you read that article, beyond the headline?

Yes. Inflation 7per cent. Wage rises for low earners 20%.. Jobs plentiful. 

 

Meanwhile.. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/sep/06/excess-winter-deaths-caused-by-cold-homes-in-great-britain-up-by-about-a-third

 

Don't worry, it only affects the poor. 

[SasaS]

53 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Yes. Inflation 7per cent. Wage rises for low earners 20%.. Jobs plentiful. 

 

Meanwhile.. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/sep/06/excess-winter-deaths-caused-by-cold-homes-in-great-britain-up-by-about-a-third

 

Don't worry, it only affects the poor. 

 

They should really be starting a couple of more wars soon, imagine how well they would be doing then.  

[Gnasher]

45 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

They should really be starting a couple of more wars soon, imagine how well they would be doing then.  

 

Yep, and plenty of our dim-witted politicians will still lead us straight into the fire again. How are the West's main politicians doing? Macron appears to have lost his mind, he's polling is at an all time low of 28%.. Sunak/Truss/Johnsons popularity at home sunk like a stone. Biden is polling very low for a sitting president despite their economy doing OK. Italy has moved to the right. The normally steadfast Germans are having a collective breakdown, I don't think they know what day it is. 

 

 

Not to worry. Another round of self defeating economic sanctions should sort it all out. 

[SasaS]

10 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

Yep, and plenty of our dim-witted politicians will still lead us straight into the fire. How are the West's main politicians doing? Macron appears to have lost his mind, he's polling is at an all time low of 28%.. Sunak/Truss/Johnsons popularity at home sunk like a stone. Biden is polling very low for a sitting president despite their economy doing OK. Italy has moved to the right. The normally steadfast Germans are having a collective breakdown, I don't think they know what day it is. 

 

 

Not to worry. Another round of self defeating economic sanctions should sort it all out. 

 

You seem fixated on sanctions on Russia like you lost business personally. Sanctions against Russia are not particularly relevant for popularity of European politicians, nor would they bring down Russia, extremely porous as they are.

 

Cost of this war might though, at least force their people to as their government, why are we in Ukraine again? 

[Gnasher]

17 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

You seem fixated on sanctions on Russia like you lost business personally. Sanctions against Russia are not particularly relevant for popularity of European politicians, nor would they bring down Russia, extremely porous as they are.

 

Cost of this war might though, at least force their people to as their government, why are we in Ukraine again? 

 

I'm not sure I agree with you on the sanctions. The resulting cost of living crisis throughout Europe has caused governments to lose popularity. As has the differing 'non plussed' reaction of our leaders to the unravelling events following Israels occupation of Gaza. 

 

 

It's not the sanctions as a whole I'm against. As I said at the time it was the thoughtless with which they were being used. To answer your other questions, no I don't haven't lost business personally and I do understand Russia are the occupying force  

[SasaS]

24 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

I'm not sure I agree with you on the sanctions. The resulting cost of living crisis throughout Europe has caused governments to lose popularity. As has the differing 'non plussed' reaction of our leaders to the unravelling events following Israels occupation of Gaza. 

 

 

It's not the sanctions as a whole I'm against. As I said at the time it was the thoughtless with which they were being used. To answer your other questions, no I don't haven't lost business personally and I do understand Russia are the occupying force  

 

Surely sanctions were not the only or the major contributing factor to the cost of leaving going up, other than the price of gas shooting up for a while. I don't have the figures on how much trade the EU or the UK do with Russia at my fingertips, but it can't be that much that it brought the economy on its knees. And they are still trading, above and below board

[Gnasher]

8 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

Surely sanctions were not the only or the major contributing factor to the cost of leaving going up, other than the price of gas shooting up for a while. I don't have the figures on how much trade the EU or the UK do with Russia at my fingertips, but it can't be that much that it brought the economy on its knees. And they are still trading, above and below board

 

No you're right. I should have said 'helped contribute to the cost of living crisis.

[M_B]

Yeah. Russian economy figures must be real, just like their wonderful democracy.

[Ne Moe Imya]

It is with great regret that I visit this thread once more to see Gnasher pounding the "both sides are bad (but I'm only going to mention the Ukrainians being bad as a way of balancing everything)" drum and people engaging with him as if he's saying any of it in good faith.

 

Russian economic figures are an absolute joke. I lived there for many years, I would estimate that the actual unemployment number in our area was probably close to 50%, but the official tally was never over 12%. As for the GDP figures, those come from the statistics bureau. They used to call me once a quarter and ask how many people I employed and what my business' revenue was for the quarter. No verification at all, and there would frequently be questions about "could I say I employed 15 people instead of 12?" and the like.

 

Ukraine is no paradise, but after many years of struggle, they have installed a genuine democracy as their system of government. They have been ruthlessly and horrifically attacked by one of the most corrupt and brutal governments on the planet. Anyone who doesn't acknowledge these facts before entering into the conversation should just be ignored.

[TheSire]

8 hours ago, M_B said:

Yeah. Russian economy figures must be real, just like their wonderful democracy.

A huge bit of context is that a massive proportion will be military spending and production of weapons etc. 

[Gnasher]

28 minutes ago, TheSire said:

A huge bit of context is that a massive proportion will be military spending and production of weapons etc. 

 

True but that's obviously the Russians piling up ammo is not particularly a good thing. They've also been forced to invest internally which has proved good for them though not so good for us. Remember in the not so distant past we were told this. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/sanctions-russia-draining-economy-european-commission-president-2022-5

 

 

Obviously the Russians fiddle the figures but it's plainly obvious to those who are able to take emotion out of argument our politicans/etc have thus far proved to be wrong, badly wrong. As many more 'sober' analysts predicted. That's not to say targeted sanctions are not a useful tool if used with guile but it's become obvious that's not what hasn't happened  

 

 

 

As for American sanctions on China. Similar. We are being led by boneheads. 

 

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/02/06/huawei-us-sanctions-top-place-china-smartphone-market-ai-chips/

 

 

More stupidity around the corner from good old Uncle Sam. 

 

 

 

I suppose this is the part of the post where I have to declare pootin is a cunt. Otherwise some get upset So Putes is definitely one hell of a cunt but we've aided him by letting emotion overtake stealth. 

[Curly]

3 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 suppose this is the part of the post where I have to declare pootin is a cunt. Otherwise some get upset So Putes is definitely one hell of a cunt but we've aided him by letting emotion overtake stealth. 

Fuck me. That ignore button is dangerously close to getting christened

[Gnasher]

2 hours ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

It is with great regret that I visit this thread once more to see Gnasher pounding the "both sides are bad (but I'm only going to mention the Ukrainians being bad as a way of balancing everything)" drum and people engaging with him as if he's saying any of it in good faith.

 

Russian economic figures are an absolute joke. I lived there for many years, I would estimate that the actual unemployment number in our area was probably close to 50%, but the official tally was never over 12%. As for the GDP figures, those come from the statistics bureau. They used to call me once a quarter and ask how many people I employed and what my business' revenue was for the quarter. No verification at all, and there would frequently be questions about "could I say I employed 15 people instead of 12?" and the like.

 

Ukraine is no paradise, but after many years of struggle, they have installed a genuine democracy as their system of government. They have been ruthlessly and horrifically attacked by one of the most corrupt and brutal governments on the planet. Anyone who doesn't acknowledge these facts before entering into the conversation should just be ignored.

 

 

If you're going to mis read me or misinterpret my words and get yourself all emotional at the same time you might be better off taking your own advice and using the ignore button. 

[Gnasher]

3 minutes ago, Curly said:

Fuck me. That ignore button is dangerously close to getting christened

 

Be my guest but before you do can you unblock this article, I can only read the first two paragraphs and ice used up any freebies. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/briefing/russian-sanctions.html

 

 

[Section_31]

I honestly don't know what your point is Gnasher. 

 

It's like saying the British shouldn't have fought Hitler because we had no pineapples in the shops and kids had to be sent to Buxton.

 

You can have freedom son or you can have peace, but you can't have both.

 

If Russia was a man it'd be that chav who won the lottery. No front teeth and a big fuck off gold chain around his neck. Parties every night full of scanks and two fingers to any elderly neighbours who complain.

[Gnasher]

7 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

I honestly don't know what your point is Gnasher. 

 

It's like saying the British shouldn't have fought Hitler because we had no pineapples in the shops and kids had to be sent to Buxton.

 

You can have freedom son or you can have peace, but you can't have both.

 

If Russia was a man it'd be that chav who won the lottery. No front teeth and a big fuck off gold chain around his neck. Parties every night full of scanks and two fingers to any elderly neighbours who complain.

 

Not what I'm saying. That was different circumstances. This has been self defeating, they got it wrong, badly wrong. Id love nothing more than Russia to fuck off tomorrow. Unfortunately theyve succeeded in only making Russia more resilient.

 

 

Anyway, I'll leave it there. 

[Section_31]

4 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

Not what I'm saying. That was different circumstances. This has been self defeating, they got it wrong, badly wrong. Id love nothing more than Russia to fuck off tomorrow. Unfortunately theyve succeeded in only making Russia more resilient.

 

 

Anyway, I'll leave it there. 

 

Why's it self defeating? What were the objectives?

 

The objectives were to stop russia conquering Ukraine and instilling a puppet government. That's a win so far.

 

The secondary bonuses are that nato had actually grown, and russian power and influence is diminished massively in the west. 

[Mudface]

16 minutes ago, Curly said:

Fuck me. That ignore button is dangerously close to getting christened

 

[Gnasher]

Just now, Section_31 said:

 

Why's it self defeating? What were the objectives?

 

This was what we were told by most of the Western politicians. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/sanctions-russia-draining-economy-european-commission-president-2022-5

 

This is what's happened in reality. Whilst over here we had to endure a cost of living crisis where a lot of poor people died.

 

 

Just now, Section_31 said:

The objectives were to stop russia conquering Ukraine and instilling a puppet government. That's a win so far.

 

The secondary bonuses are that nato had actually grown, and russian power and influence is diminished massively in the west. 

 

They've also grown closer to China and have stepped up in Africa. So not all good. 

 

 

[M_B]

Russia's economy is barely bigger than Italy's yet it has a population twice the size. It has also burned through half of its liquid asset fund that was setup to support the war, and the Ukrainian's are now targeting Russia's ability to produce and sell oil. Hopefully the circle that surrounds Putin are beginning to feel the pinch.

 

It is all a bit irrelevant though I admit - Trump will save the day for them.

[Gnasher]

Didn't know my old mate Jeff spent all his redundancy sticking a couple of Nukes out his back garden. He wanna act carefully after sinking a few, hope he's pointed them the right way