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Russia v Ukraine


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4 hours ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

It is with great regret that I visit this thread once more to see Gnasher pounding the "both sides are bad (but I'm only going to mention the Ukrainians being bad as a way of balancing everything)" drum and people engaging with him as if he's saying any of it in good faith.

 

Russian economic figures are an absolute joke. I lived there for many years, I would estimate that the actual unemployment number in our area was probably close to 50%, but the official tally was never over 12%. As for the GDP figures, those come from the statistics bureau. They used to call me once a quarter and ask how many people I employed and what my business' revenue was for the quarter. No verification at all, and there would frequently be questions about "could I say I employed 15 people instead of 12?" and the like.

 

Ukraine is no paradise, but after many years of struggle, they have installed a genuine democracy as their system of government. They have been ruthlessly and horrifically attacked by one of the most corrupt and brutal governments on the planet. Anyone who doesn't acknowledge these facts before entering into the conversation should just be ignored.

 

10 years ago today Russia annexed Crimea.

 

Russian 2024 election results

 

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18 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

 

10 years ago today Russia annexed Crimea.

 

Russian 2024 election results

 

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Were they as transparent as the coverage of the war in Gaza? 

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Germany doing well. 

 

 

Not everyone over there impressed. I'd love to see the reaction if she shared these veiws on here, maybe not. She'd be about as popular as me and the Pope. 

 

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

It is with great regret that I visit this thread once more to see Gnasher pounding the "both sides are bad (but I'm only going to mention the Ukrainians being bad as a way of balancing everything)" drum and people engaging with him as if he's saying any of it in good faith.

 

Russian economic figures are an absolute joke. I lived there for many years, I would estimate that the actual unemployment number in our area was probably close to 50%, but the official tally was never over 12%. As for the GDP figures, those come from the statistics bureau. They used to call me once a quarter and ask how many people I employed and what my business' revenue was for the quarter. No verification at all, and there would frequently be questions about "could I say I employed 15 people instead of 12?" and the like.

 

Ukraine is no paradise, but after many years of struggle, they have installed a genuine democracy as their system of government. They have been ruthlessly and horrifically attacked by one of the most corrupt and brutal governments on the planet. Anyone who doesn't acknowledge these facts before entering into the conversation should just be ignored.

 

Most statistics is estimates and approximations, as far as I can tell, Russian official economic figures are generally seen as relatively reliable, considering the environment.

 

For example, people know that exchange rate is influenced by currency controls, that you can massage inflation and employment numbers to a degree, but you have the overall context. When the official inflation rate is not moving, and the central bank is leaving the rate unchanged, after both rates was previously going up, you can deduce that inflation is under control.

 

You cannot completely fabricate the entire picture, you have stock exchange where local people invest and they would have a pretty good picture of what is really going on. And Russia's economy is probably watched closely enough to be difficult to just pull figures out of thin air. There is considerable revenue from oil which is fairly obvious to see, and we don't know how much money, which was being stashed away for years for topping up pensions and price subsidies to keep to people happy now being poured into war economy.

 

It's a reasonable assumption this would help any economy in short to mid-term plus the blood money for the families. Buryatia for example must be now basing its entire economy on blood money, with population of less than a million and  my estimate of having at about 2,000 dead in Ukraine.

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Just now, Gnasher said:

 

As with many on many things on this thread if your own reality makes you feel better I'll try not to dampen it with facts. 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68361717.amp

 

 

 

 

Yea, reality bites.

 

Brexit Britain has ‘significantly underperformed’ other advanced economies, Goldman Sachs says

Post-Brexit Britain has “significantly underperformed” other advanced economies since the 2016 EU referendum, according to new analysis from Goldman Sachs, which aims to quantify the economic cost of the Leave vote.

Goldman Sachs attributed the economic shortfall to three key factors: reduced trade; weaker business investment; and labor shortages as a result of lower immigration from the EU.

The U.K. voted 52% to 48% to leave the EU on June 23, 2016, but officially exited the union on Jan. 31, 2020.

Over that period until today, U.K. goods trade has underperformed other advanced economies by around 15% since the Leave vote, according to the bank’s estimates, while business investment has fallen “notably short” of pre-referendum levels.

 

Meantime, immigration from the EU has fallen — a key pledge of the Vote Leave campaign — only to be replaced by a less economically active cohort of non-EU migrants, primarily students, the research said.

“Taken together, the evidence points to a significant long-run output cost of Brexit,” the report’s authors said.

 

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7 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

 

Yea, reality bites.

 

Brexit Britain has ‘significantly underperformed’ other advanced economies, Goldman Sachs says

Post-Brexit Britain has “significantly underperformed” other advanced economies since the 2016 EU referendum, according to new analysis from Goldman Sachs, which aims to quantify the economic cost of the Leave vote.

Goldman Sachs attributed the economic shortfall to three key factors: reduced trade; weaker business investment; and labor shortages as a result of lower immigration from the EU.

The U.K. voted 52% to 48% to leave the EU on June 23, 2016, but officially exited the union on Jan. 31, 2020.

Over that period until today, U.K. goods trade has underperformed other advanced economies by around 15% since the Leave vote, according to the bank’s estimates, while business investment has fallen “notably short” of pre-referendum levels.

 

Meantime, immigration from the EU has fallen — a key pledge of the Vote Leave campaign — only to be replaced by a less economically active cohort of non-EU migrants, primarily students, the research said.

“Taken together, the evidence points to a significant long-run output cost of Brexit,” the report’s authors said.

 

 

That's SINCE the referendum in 2016. The UK is not doing worse than than the Germany economically NOW as you claimed. Or further into 2024. The German economic outlook is dire, ours is not great but nowhere near as dire as Germany. 

 

 

Again. Chart included on growth projection.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68361717.amp

 

 

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1 minute ago, Gnasher said:

 

That's SINCE the referendum in 2016. The UK is not doing worse than than the Germany economically NOW as you claimed. Or further into 2024. The German economic outlook is dire, ours is not great but nowhere near as dire as Germany. 

 

 

Again. Chart included on growth projection.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68361717.amp

 

 

Alas - a forecast is not reality but you and Sunak are in agreement at least - This is your year!

 

Rishi Sunak has urged Tory MPs to stick with him and see his economic plan through amid speculation about a challenge to his leadership.

On Sunday, the Prime Minister told backbenchers that “the economy is turning a corner” and urged them to hold their nerve despite the Conservative Party’s dire poll ratings.

The Prime Minister told his party: “There is now a real sense that the economy is turning a corner, with all the economic indicators pointing in the right direction. 

“This year, 2024, will be the year Britain bounces back,” he said, adding that inflation was on target to return to two per cent within the next few months.

Mr Sunak said the economy had returned to growth in January and Britain was now forecast to outperform Japan, Germany, France and Italy over the next five years.

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12 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Alas - a forecast is not reality but you and Sunak are in agreement at least - This is your year!

 

Rishi Sunak has urged Tory MPs to stick with him and see his economic plan through amid speculation about a challenge to his leadership.

On Sunday, the Prime Minister told backbenchers that “the economy is turning a corner” and urged them to hold their nerve despite the Conservative Party’s dire poll ratings.

The Prime Minister told his party: “There is now a real sense that the economy is turning a corner, with all the economic indicators pointing in the right direction. 

“This year, 2024, will be the year Britain bounces back,” he said, adding that inflation was on target to return to two per cent within the next few months.

Mr Sunak said the economy had returned to growth in January and Britain was now forecast to outperform Japan, Germany, France and Italy over the next five years.

 

 

Who's mentioned Rishi Sunak, bar you? 

 

The chart in the BBC article is not from Rishi Sunak it's from the OECD. Which is made up of approx 30 odd countries. Nevermind. 

 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68361717.amp

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/OECD

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Who's mentioned Rishi Sunak, bar you? 

 

I know I shouldn't even begin this but -- are you looking at this projected GDP growth for the UK vs Germany and using it as a comparative barometer for the current economic strength/state of each country?

 

 

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42 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

 

I know I shouldn't even begin this but -- are you looking at this projected GDP growth for the UK vs Germany and using it as a comparative barometer for the current economic strength/state of each country?

 

 

 

 

No and no you shouldn't have. Even after the disastrous Truss budget Britain still outgunned Germany. 

 

 

About 6th para down, 2nd on conclusions. 

 

 

https://www.hl.co.uk/news/why-germanys-economy-is-struggling

 

As I've said you carry on and believe what you want to believe if it makes you feel better. If you want to tell yourself the Russians are crumbling under sanctions or are on the back foot on the battlefield, or Ukraine have plenty of men etc, then I'm not going to stop you. Just don't expect me to agree with you. 

 

 

Talking of Germany I note the German Chancellor is in Israel holding a press conference with Netenyahu. Nice. 

 

Anyway I'm off out, you crack on. 

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4 hours ago, Gnasher said:

 

True but that's obviously the Russians piling up ammo is not particularly a good thing. They've also been forced to invest internally which has proved good for them though not so good for us. Remember in the not so distant past we were told this. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/sanctions-russia-draining-economy-european-commission-president-2022-5

 

 

Obviously the Russians fiddle the figures but it's plainly obvious to those who are able to take emotion out of argument our politicans/etc have thus far proved to be wrong, badly wrong. As many more 'sober' analysts predicted. That's not to say targeted sanctions are not a useful tool if used with guile but it's become obvious that's not what hasn't happened  

 

20240318_011928.jpg

 

 

As for American sanctions on China. Similar. We are being led by boneheads. 

 

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/02/06/huawei-us-sanctions-top-place-china-smartphone-market-ai-chips/

 

 

More stupidity around the corner from good old Uncle Sam. 

 

 

 

I suppose this is the part of the post where I have to declare pootin is a cunt. Otherwise some get upset So Putes is definitely one hell of a cunt but we've aided him by letting emotion overtake stealth. 

I think both can be true. We have corrupt arsehole politicians and psychopaths who run these huge companies, Russia are probably finding ways to get round them because of greedy cunts.

 

Sanctions probably do fuck things up for oligarchs but tbh if the USA and Europe grew a set and just properly provided military assistance this could be over anytime. I don't see any way for this to stop unless ukraine are fucked as it seems Russia is run by alien weird depraved fucks.

 

Why can't freaks like Putin etc just enjoy sitting by the pool surrounded by 50 sexy nude women serving drinks instead of needing to cause chaos and killing.

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