Russia v Ukraine

[SasaS]

9 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

 

Well I don't think the reaction to the invasion ( re: the March 22 realization) is necessarily tied to what is happening now and the planning at that stage would have been far more acute. Let's face it, most thought it would be over in months - that included US intel. It was said to be a matter of days that was passed along to the bigwigs.

 

 

I mean the USA

 

This will ultimately be a test as to the validity of multi national organizations like NATO and the UN.

As I said, there is very little appetite for increased military activity here, that is across all parties.

Alot changes in a couple of years.

 

 

That is exactly what I am talking about, no, most didn't think it would be over in days, they thought Russia would crush Ukraine in days.

When this didn't happen and they decided in March '22 to gradually switch all of Ukraine artillery to NATO standards and deliver heavy weapons to them, which began from April '22 on, they didn't think it would be over in days, how could it be, most analysts were saying wars not over in a couple of months tend to go on for years.

 

And now, oh, there is little appetite for prolonged military activity, which anybody with half a brain told them that this was what was going to happen and you need to plan for the next 3 to 5 years. All inputs were already there.

 

I get it, strategic priorities change and the US mainly wanted to degrade Russia's military power, what I don't understand is why not finish the all-important job in which you have already invested billions -  because you don't have the appetite any longer, so lets now just write it off and leave  Putin even stronger than in 2021? That is not strategy, that is insanity.

[TheHowieLama]

Two things - there was no appetite when it happened nor in March, April or any other month.

 

US policy, and any change there now has less to do with Putin than China.

[SasaS]

I fail to see how deserting Ukraine would help US with China.

[TheHowieLama]

7 minutes ago, SasaS said:

I fail to see how deserting Ukraine would help US with China.

 

Do you fail to see how greatly increased US military support - much less anything approaching actual activity of any kind (which is what ultimately would be needed to "win" this war)  might hurt?

[SasaS]

4 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

 

Do you fail to see how greatly increased US military support - much less anything approaching actual activity of any kind (which is what ultimately would be needed to "win" this war)  might hurt?

 

Yes I do, please expand how supplying Ukraine with more artillery shells, few hundred more Bradleys that have proved very popular and additional air defense batteries to better defend against Russian attacks might hurt US and China. Also, please ad how the collapse of Ukraine to Russia helps.

[TheHowieLama]

I'm not a war strategist (appreciate you are very knowledgeable in that) but it's beyond the simplistic point of how a few hundred Bradleys would help now.

That is chicken scratch and so far short of what will/would be needed as you well know. It is the fact that even that can be used as a political theater that irks me the most, but it is reality.

And you have to be honest - the situation in Gaza has refocused how "border wars" will need to be dealt with in modern times. How that pans out will have more influence on US/China relations than the actual geographic outcomes. 

That said I am quite sure there will be continued military assistance to both US "allies".

 

 

[Gnasher]

Yanks worrying more about the rise in oil prices than Ukraine winning the war now it's election year?

 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/report-us-urges-ukraine-stop-attacking-russian-oil-refineries/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TheSire]

26 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Yanks worrying more about the rise in oil prices than Ukraine winning the war now it's election year?

 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/report-us-urges-ukraine-stop-attacking-russian-oil-refineries/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Saw this a week or so back. Dickheads. Just shows how little they actually care about the whole situation. Why the cunts are sending huge amounts of ammo to Israel to blow up defenseless poor people I don't know. Evil shitbags.

[Ne Moe Imya]

On 10/04/2024 at 11:05, TheHowieLama said:

 

Do you fail to see how greatly increased US military support - much less anything approaching actual activity of any kind (which is what ultimately would be needed to "win" this war)  might hurt?

 

Not sure about this.

I actually think the best way to help with China is to deter them, very forcibly, from taking the decision to go for Taiwan. That decision would make everyone in the world poorer.

 

And the best way to deter the CCP from going through with their plans is to show them how capable the West is at coming together to stop a war of genocidal conquest, to show them that the rules-based order says that you can't do that any more and come out ahead. In other words, the best way to show the Chinese leadership what will happen to them if they make a move for Taiwan is to ensure that Ukraine wins the war quickly.
 

Plus it ensures that you can focus almost 100% of your manufacturing and war-making capabilities in defense of Taiwan. I think it's 5% of the US arms budget that Ukraine is asking for. If you can give them that and then knock out your #2 enemy's capabilities entirely, it's a bargain. It allows you to spend the other 95% totally focused on the Chinese theater.

[TheHowieLama]

knock out your #2 enemy's capabilities entirely, it's a bargain.

 

@Ne Moe Imya

 

IMO this will never happen. What scenario can you see where Russia's capabilities are knocked out completely? How?

Even if UKR were to "win" (whatever that means in terms of the line at the border) Russia would still have incredible firepower - a huge military industrial complex to rebuild and China firmly in their camp, and both probably smarting. And still literally next door.

I do think they will continue to get military aid from the US.

[M_B]

3 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

I do think they will continue to get military aid from the US.

 

I'm pessimistic about this. The Republican party will block any attempts and Trump seems to be in Putin's pocket. Only way US aid resumes is if Biden miraculously gets a majority in both houses.

[TheHowieLama]

8 minutes ago, M_B said:

 

I'm pessimistic about this. The Republican party will block any attempts and Trump seems to be in Putin's pocket. Only way US aid resumes is if Biden miraculously gets a majority in both houses.

 

There are many avenues for military aid - Biden has already been using a few different ways that have no need for Congress' approval.

He did it again today.

Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance as an extraordinary measure to address some of Ukraine's most pressing security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration's fifty-fifth tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package is valued at up to $300 million and includes capabilities to support Ukraine's immediate air defense, artillery, and anti-tank requirements.

 

The capabilities in this announcement include:

• Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 155mm artillery rounds, including High Explosive and Dual Purpose Improved Cluster Munitions rounds;
• 105mm artillery rounds; 
• AT-4 anti-armor systems;
• Additional rounds of small arms ammunition;
• Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
• Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.

 

 

[SasaS]

They were saying a couple of months ago Biden has some $4.5 billion or something of unused funds he could have drawn from if he decided to, I don't know it that was just bullshit.

 

On Ukrainian victory, I guess that would mean forcing Russia to negotiate on realistic terms, after it has been exhausted to the point that continuing the war brings higher political price than stopping it,. For this, you need to put them in a position where their capability to hurt Ukraine is limited, and comes with their own vulnerability.

 

Apparently this war costs Russia $300 million a day. Rezhnikov said a year or so ago Ukraine's cost was about 100 million a day. That's a lot of money over the course of four or five years. For something which really isn't an existential fight for Russia.

 

[TheHowieLama]

29 minutes ago, SasaS said:

They were saying a couple of months ago Biden has some $4.5 billion or something of unused funds 

 

 

On Ukrainian victory, 

 

 

That's a lot of money over the course of four or five years. For something which really isn't an existential fight for Russia.

 

 

It is inventory for lack of a better word.

Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said this week the U.S. military understands the severity of Ukraine's needs, and that's why it is working with Congress to win approval for the supplemental funding.

"While we do have that $4.2 billion in authority, we don't have the funds available to replenish those stocks should we expend that," he explained at a briefing this month. 

 

They will still have Russia staring at them over the fence and China looking over their shoulder. I don't think that would end with this battle being "won". Any knocking out of Russia's capabilities forgets the 800 lb guerilla in the room. They still have assloads of nukes.

 

Even less so for the US though, especially now. 

The Joe Biden administration and the U.S. Congress have directed about $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine, which includes humanitarian, financial, and military support.

Since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has become far and away the top recipient of U.S. foreign aid. This marks the first time that a European country has held the top spot since the Harry S. Truman administration.

 

Interestingly Republicans were pushing Biden hard to use the Presidential Drawdown in spring/summer of 22. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SasaS]

24 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

 

It is inventory for lack of a better word.

Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said this week the U.S. military understands the severity of Ukraine's needs, and that's why it is working with Congress to win approval for the supplemental funding.

"While we do have that $4.2 billion in authority, we don't have the funds available to replenish those stocks should we expend that," he explained at a briefing this month. 

 

They will still have Russia staring at them over the fence and China looking over their shoulder. I don't think that would end with this battle being "won". Any knocking out of Russia's capabilities forgets the 800 lb guerilla in the room. They still have assloads of nukes.

 

Even less so for the US though, especially now. 

The Joe Biden administration and the U.S. Congress have directed about $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine, which includes humanitarian, financial, and military support.

Since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has become far and away the top recipient of U.S. foreign aid. This marks the first time that a European country has held the top spot since the Harry S. Truman administration.

 

Interestingly Republicans were pushing Biden hard to use the Presidential Drawdown in spring/summer of 22. 

 

 

 

Also, speaking of gorillas, let's not forget why Russia invaded Ukraine, because it thought it could, it would fall in 6 to 8 weeks including mopping up operations, after being invaded by 150,000 or so Russian troops. They have lost an entire army which invaded and than the next one - obviously, not the same people, but manpower and equipment worth.

 

I don't think it is true they would keep trying no matter the cost raising army after army. Because suddenly, after 30 years of their independence, they suddenly cannot survive if Ukraine exists or if it isn't under their full control.

[TheHowieLama]

26 minutes ago, SasaS said:

I don't think it is true they would keep trying no matter the cost raising army after army. Because suddenly, after 30 years of their independence, they suddenly cannot survive if Ukraine exists or if it isn't under their full control.

 

I'm not sure Russia currently operate under a they mindset, especiallly re: this conflict. I think it is him who will not survive without "victory".

Unfortunately that is even more dangerous.

[SasaS]

9 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

 

I'm not sure Russia currently operate under a they mindset, especiallly re: this conflict. I think it is him who will not survive without "victory".

Unfortunately that is even more dangerous.

 

Possibly. But the price of that survival will involve them not just him.

[TheHowieLama]

14 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

Possibly. But the price of that survival will involve them not just him.

Agreed and I am pretty sure he is ok with that.

[SasaS]

Just because we don't clearly see the exact circumstances and point at which this ceases to be viable for Russia does not mean that point does not exist.

[TheHowieLama]

9 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Just because we don't clearly see the exact circumstances and point at which this ceases to be viable for Russia does not mean that point does not exist.

 

Of course not - but we can question whether that point will happen with Putin in power. Which seems pretty unlikely.

So that leaves a rather messy scenario as there is no chance any election will remove Putin and he is Prezzie for life anyway.

 

[Red Phoenix]

On 08/04/2024 at 13:03, TheHowieLama said:

The Russian republic is said to have ruled that all music should "correspond to a tempo of 80 to 116 beats per minute" - meaning all western rave and techno music would be banned.

 

What a bunch of fucking fascists. Russians need to send the lads down there to free the ravers :

 

[Gnasher]

 

 

 

[SasaS]

It won't open the links (for me).

 

What is he saying? (I presume you watched it).

[Gnasher]

50 minutes ago, SasaS said:

It won't open the links (for me).

 

What is he saying? (I presume you watched it).

 

Can you press translate?

[SasaS]

2 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

Can you press translate?

 

Sum it up for us.